LawTalkers  

Go Back   LawTalkers > General Discussion > Politics

» Site Navigation
 > FAQ
» Online Users: 109
2 members and 107 guests
Greedy,Greedy,Greedy, Hank Chinaski
Most users ever online was 4,499, 10-26-2015 at 08:55 AM.
Closed Thread
 
Thread Tools Display Modes
Old 10-23-2018, 05:38 PM   #3661
Did you just call me Coltrane?
Registered User
 
Did you just call me Coltrane?'s Avatar
 
Join Date: Mar 2003
Location: Throwing a kettle over a pub
Posts: 14,495
Re: We are all Slave now.

Quote:
Originally Posted by Greedy,Greedy,Greedy View Post
Come on, Hank. There are ways to squeeze them out. If you really need to, introduce a two-tiered partnership approach. Shrink comp for the bottom of the stack. Cut support. Charge-back associate time or other things.

After all, you're the Man.
My old firm was like Terry Pratchett's Lord Vetinari: “Ankh-Morpork had dallied with many forms of government and had ended up with that form of democracy known as One Man, One Vote. The Patrician was the Man; he had the Vote."
__________________
No no no, that's not gonna help. That's not gonna help and I'll tell you why: It doesn't unbang your Mom.
Did you just call me Coltrane? is offline  
Old 10-23-2018, 05:48 PM   #3662
ThurgreedMarshall
[intentionally omitted]
 
ThurgreedMarshall's Avatar
 
Join Date: Mar 2003
Location: NYC
Posts: 28,165
Re: We are all Slave now.

Quote:
Originally Posted by Hank Chinaski View Post
or like, PR? Ty says "no! Unless you got 40 million people FUCK YOU! .......No Senators for you!"
If it weren't for Sebby, you would be the most ridiculous person on this board.

TM
ThurgreedMarshall is offline  
Old 10-23-2018, 06:00 PM   #3663
Hank Chinaski
Proud Holder-Post 200,000
 
Hank Chinaski's Avatar
 
Join Date: Sep 2003
Location: Corner Office
Posts: 84,795
Re: We are all Slave now.

Quote:
Originally Posted by ThurgreedMarshall View Post
If it weren't for Sebby, you would be the most ridiculous person on this board.

TM
coming from you, that is a compliment?
__________________
The conscience of Lawtalkers!
Hank Chinaski is online now  
Old 10-23-2018, 06:16 PM   #3664
ThurgreedMarshall
[intentionally omitted]
 
ThurgreedMarshall's Avatar
 
Join Date: Mar 2003
Location: NYC
Posts: 28,165
Re: We are all Slave now.

Quote:
Originally Posted by Hank Chinaski View Post
coming from you, that is a compliment?
You're not sure of your response?

TM
ThurgreedMarshall is offline  
Old 10-23-2018, 06:27 PM   #3665
Greedy,Greedy,Greedy
Registered User
 
Greedy,Greedy,Greedy's Avatar
 
Join Date: Mar 2003
Location: Government Yard in Trenchtown
Posts: 19,497
Re: We are all Slave now.

Quote:
Originally Posted by Did you just call me Coltrane? View Post
My old firm was like Terry Pratchett's Lord Vetinari: “Ankh-Morpork had dallied with many forms of government and had ended up with that form of democracy known as One Man, One Vote. The Patrician was the Man; he had the Vote."
Listen to what the Man said.
__________________
A wee dram a day!
Greedy,Greedy,Greedy is online now  
Old 10-23-2018, 06:54 PM   #3666
sebastian_dangerfield
Moderator
 
sebastian_dangerfield's Avatar
 
Join Date: Mar 2003
Location: Monty Capuletti's gazebo
Posts: 24,507
Re: We are all Slave now.

Quote:
Yes, I'm being "hysterical." Meanwhile, you can't think about anything from a viewpoint that is not your own. Which is pretty obvious from your "why don't they just move if they aren't treated fairly" solution.
A big part of what's wrong with Americans - most notably lazy white entitled Americans - is refusal to Move Where The Economy Is Good.

Quote:
There's a gotta be a term for when you make groups of people migrate to be secure in their person on the basis of their race, gender, religion or other characteristics...
That's your re-framing of the issue. I was raising economic arguments.
__________________
All is for the best in the best of all possible worlds.
sebastian_dangerfield is offline  
Old 10-23-2018, 07:00 PM   #3667
sebastian_dangerfield
Moderator
 
sebastian_dangerfield's Avatar
 
Join Date: Mar 2003
Location: Monty Capuletti's gazebo
Posts: 24,507
Re: We are all Slave now.

Quote:
Originally Posted by Tyrone Slothrop View Post
Yes, getting angry at the people who admitted Wyoming to the Union is obviously the most productive thing to do now.
I've nothing against natives of Wyoming, but I would like to see ski tourists humble-bragging on social media, "Me falling at Corbett's Couloir!" somehow barred from the state.
__________________
All is for the best in the best of all possible worlds.
sebastian_dangerfield is offline  
Old 10-23-2018, 07:17 PM   #3668
sebastian_dangerfield
Moderator
 
sebastian_dangerfield's Avatar
 
Join Date: Mar 2003
Location: Monty Capuletti's gazebo
Posts: 24,507
Re: We are all Slave now.

Quote:
I just picked one year to illustrate my point. Step back. We have been in a long expansion which started early in the Obama Administration and has continued to the present. If you want to make a case for Trump, go nuts, but the obvious story is that he inherited a good economy from Obama and hasn't fucked it up. The two big things he has done that plausibly would make a difference are the tax cut, which is unnecessary stimulus, and trade policy, which is not helping but hasn't blown things up (yet).
I'm not going to go all Robert Shiller here, but sentiment counts for something. He's enhanced sentiment among small to mid-sized businesses. It took a while, as unpredictability was cancelling out that positive sentiment. But that seems to have passed for the moment. It's not morning in America, of course. It's more like morning in Bizarro America. But respected analysts are now saying we may not see a recession for another two years. That could be the sign of a top. But as I said earlier, everyone making that bet for the past ten months has fallen down the proverbial wall of worry.

Quote:
Look, you know what sector I'm in. Are folks happy that the federal government isn't pretty to regulate? Sure. Does it really help businesses grow? I am skeptical.
You should be. I could see the traditional players buying off Trump's people and enhancing regulation of your sector. Trump and his people are nothing if not for sale.

I also agree with you in a broader sense. Deregulation doesn't translate into profits immediately. The only thing that does that is dollars in the hands of consumers. (I subscribe to the view that all real growth is ultimately driven by consumer spending.) That happens two ways: Wage or credit growth. Deregulation allows for the latter. The former is of course far more preferable.

ETA: I could entertain the argument that regulation enhances profits, particularly in emerging sectors where bigger players get to make those regs to suit their interests and preclude competition. But that's not true profit. That's creating and exploiting a barrier to entry. That's a lot of what's deeply wrong with regulation and law in this country.

Quote:
No. But (a) you do like playing the provocateur, and (b) the story you've told is missing the part where you explain how collecting the underpants leads to PROFITS.
I started this by saying Trump was working out well for my family, as we've exposure to domestic middle class consumers. I can confidently say that, even with costs of operation increasing, I assume as a result of inflation, profits have increased significantly post-Trump. It's entirely correlation, but looking for other causes, I'm coming up short. Things were moving upward during Obama's tenure, but not at the same rate.

I'm as surprised as anyone. But pleasantly so.
__________________
All is for the best in the best of all possible worlds.

Last edited by sebastian_dangerfield; 10-23-2018 at 07:21 PM..
sebastian_dangerfield is offline  
Old 10-23-2018, 07:32 PM   #3669
sebastian_dangerfield
Moderator
 
sebastian_dangerfield's Avatar
 
Join Date: Mar 2003
Location: Monty Capuletti's gazebo
Posts: 24,507
Re: We are all Slave now.

Quote:
Originally Posted by Greedy,Greedy,Greedy View Post
I think it's pretty clear what happens in the first two years of Trump. First, he inherits a pretty strong economy, but also one tiring near the end of the cycle. He gets the benefit of some initial exuberance, especially from investors who are hopeful he's going to do what they want. Then he gets sugar highs into the economy from two sources: first, a tax cut that puts a couple trillion dollars in the hands of corporations and wealthy individuals, something that won't have a long term effect but does put some money out there, and second, a bunch of economic shifts that occur in anticipation of a trade war - things like the Chinese stocking up on soy just before the tariffs hit (and that series of purchases added nearly a full percent to GDP in a single quarter).

Unfortunately, besides these just being sugar highs, we're also seeing the slow gutting of the jobs created by the ACA, hitting on a state-by-state basis.

So, in the second two years, he has to move from sugar highs to coke highs or he has to deal with some of the inevitable retrenching, like post-Brownback Kansas. Guess which one he is going to go for?
I agree with much of this. I also agree that he will go from sugar to coke to meth to to keep the numbers where he thinks they ought to be. He knows that if the economy tanks, given his fragile popularity, he's toast.

I don't think gutting ACA jobs is a big deal. HC has low multiplier effect. If Trump would get off his ass on infrastructure, he could produce 1/2 the number of those ACA jobs with 3X the multiplier effect.

But my main point was on sentiment. For reasons I cannot grasp, he's shifted sentiment among business owners. It should not work. Particularly in development, the cost increases from the tariffs (between 10-20%) should have strong negative impact. But so far? Not seeing it. But YMMV. And it's still early. Maybe it's coming. But maybe not.
__________________
All is for the best in the best of all possible worlds.
sebastian_dangerfield is offline  
Old 10-23-2018, 08:21 PM   #3670
Hank Chinaski
Proud Holder-Post 200,000
 
Hank Chinaski's Avatar
 
Join Date: Sep 2003
Location: Corner Office
Posts: 84,795
Re: We are all Slave now.

Quote:
Originally Posted by ThurgreedMarshall View Post
You're not sure of your response?

TM
My response is arguing about electoral college and senators is wasteful. This https://www.realclearpolitics.com/ep...house_map.html is what makes sense politically- the Senate will actually be MORE R next term so hope for health to your justices. But the house is still a possible take. Not certain, about 30 districts will decide it.
It is all about that. Anyone with energy or money should funnel it there. But I'm involved with tough love/12 step working on a person I love- I cannot control anyone but me. People expending energy on getting rid of the electoral college will do what they do until they hit bottom. Step 1 accept you limits in controlling those who are out of control. namaste.
__________________
The conscience of Lawtalkers!

Last edited by Hank Chinaski; 10-24-2018 at 10:26 AM..
Hank Chinaski is online now  
Old 10-24-2018, 01:40 AM   #3671
Tyrone Slothrop
Moderasaurus Rex
 
Tyrone Slothrop's Avatar
 
Join Date: May 2004
Posts: 31,414
Re: We are all Slave now.

Quote:
Originally Posted by sebastian_dangerfield View Post
I've nothing against natives of Wyoming, but I would like to see ski tourists humble-bragging on social media, "Me falling at Corbett's Couloir!" somehow barred from the state.
Jackson Hole is not really Wyoming. It's a splinter faction of Vail and Aspen that went walkabout.
__________________
“It was fortunate that so few men acted according to moral principle, because it was so easy to get principles wrong, and a determined person acting on mistaken principles could really do some damage." - Larissa MacFarquhar
Tyrone Slothrop is offline  
Old 10-24-2018, 10:06 AM   #3672
Greedy,Greedy,Greedy
Registered User
 
Greedy,Greedy,Greedy's Avatar
 
Join Date: Mar 2003
Location: Government Yard in Trenchtown
Posts: 19,497
Re: Sebby is a dumbass

Quote:
Originally Posted by sebastian_dangerfield View Post
I agree with much of this. I also agree that he will go from sugar to coke to meth to to keep the numbers where he thinks they ought to be. He knows that if the economy tanks, given his fragile popularity, he's toast.

I don't think gutting ACA jobs is a big deal. HC has low multiplier effect. If Trump would get off his ass on infrastructure, he could produce 1/2 the number of those ACA jobs with 3X the multiplier effect.

But my main point was on sentiment. For reasons I cannot grasp, he's shifted sentiment among business owners. It should not work. Particularly in development, the cost increases from the tariffs (between 10-20%) should have strong negative impact. But so far? Not seeing it. But YMMV. And it's still early. Maybe it's coming. But maybe not.
HC has a low multiplier? WTF are you talking about?

Two big pluses of ACA job growth is that it is very dispersed - healthcare is one of the few industries that is a significant employer everywhere, usually a hospital or two are among the four or five top employers in every town of any size - and that the jobs pay decent wages. One downside is filling the needs takes time, so the ACA job growth has been a steady contributor even during the Trump years when key provisions were getting gutted, because the hiring queue is long.

Remember, the tariffs all have the sugar high effect but do lasting damage. Before they go into effect there is a rapid and large ramp up in demand. The Chinese bought every soybean they could in April and May at $10+ and then the price plunged to about $8 but there was no inventory left. Now farmers are drying out the fall crop and filling every bin available (really, invest in grain elevators right now - booming business) because nothing is selling - many are hoping the tariffs will be lifted and prices will be back up before they have to sell. Meanwhile, Brazil is planting enormous soybean crops that will change the face of the industry, and those crops get harvested next spring.

If I'm a big grower, I'm going to adjust my crop next year and grow less soy. If I'm a family farmer who has been growing soy for the last three generations, I know a lot more about growing soy than anything else and am reluctant to change. Guess who gets killed next year?
__________________
A wee dram a day!

Last edited by Greedy,Greedy,Greedy; 10-24-2018 at 10:20 AM..
Greedy,Greedy,Greedy is online now  
Old 10-24-2018, 11:10 AM   #3673
Adder
I am beyond a rank!
 
Adder's Avatar
 
Join Date: Mar 2003
Posts: 16,553
Re: We are all Slave now.

Quote:
Originally Posted by sebastian_dangerfield View Post
A big part of what's wrong with Americans - most notably lazy white entitled Americans - is refusal to Move Where The Economy Is Good.
Absolutely, but that doesn't make "let the southern bigots treat people so terribly that those who can manage it will move, while ignoring those who won't be able to" a good policy choice.


Quote:
That's your re-framing of the issue. I was raising economic arguments.
Wait, you think "state's rights" is primarily about economics?

Last edited by Adder; 10-24-2018 at 11:17 AM..
Adder is offline  
Old 10-24-2018, 11:15 AM   #3674
Adder
I am beyond a rank!
 
Adder's Avatar
 
Join Date: Mar 2003
Posts: 16,553
Re: We are all Slave now.

Quote:
Originally Posted by sebastian_dangerfield View Post
But respected analysts are now saying we may not see a recession for another two years. That could be the sign of a top.
We'll see a recession when the Fed next adopts a monetary policy that's too tight. At the moment, the political pressures are in the other direction and will likely stay that way until there's a Dem president and congressional Rs found re-find their (irrational) inflation fears.
Adder is offline  
Old 10-24-2018, 12:53 PM   #3675
sebastian_dangerfield
Moderator
 
sebastian_dangerfield's Avatar
 
Join Date: Mar 2003
Location: Monty Capuletti's gazebo
Posts: 24,507
Re: Sebby is a dumbass

Quote:
Originally Posted by Greedy,Greedy,Greedy View Post
HC has a low multiplier? WTF are you talking about?

Two big pluses of ACA job growth is that it is very dispersed - healthcare is one of the few industries that is a significant employer everywhere, usually a hospital or two are among the four or five top employers in every town of any size - and that the jobs pay decent wages. One downside is filling the needs takes time, so the ACA job growth has been a steady contributor even during the Trump years when key provisions were getting gutted, because the hiring queue is long.

Remember, the tariffs all have the sugar high effect but do lasting damage. Before they go into effect there is a rapid and large ramp up in demand. The Chinese bought every soybean they could in April and May at $10+ and then the price plunged to about $8 but there was no inventory left. Now farmers are drying out the fall crop and filling every bin available (really, invest in grain elevators right now - booming business) because nothing is selling - many are hoping the tariffs will be lifted and prices will be back up before they have to sell. Meanwhile, Brazil is planting enormous soybean crops that will change the face of the industry, and those crops get harvested next spring.

If I'm a big grower, I'm going to adjust my crop next year and grow less soy. If I'm a family farmer who has been growing soy for the last three generations, I know a lot more about growing soy than anything else and am reluctant to change. Guess who gets killed next year?
HC's multiplier does not compete with infrastructure jobs in terms of breadth. Good infrastructure projects using union wages pay really well and create temporary and permanent development around them. If you put a simple highway exchange in in the right locale, with the right utility links and permits to foster easy add-ons, you can basically create a small community from scratch.

This isn't to say ACA jobs aren't worth growing, and don't have a solid multiplier effect. I just tend to see HC as a more parasitic industry. It sucks out a ton of consumer dollars that'd otherwise be spent elsewhere in the economy. Infrastructure and development around it tend to create more opportunities for spending in a broader number of areas.

On tariffs, I find your point compelling and likely correct. But you're out of my pay grade there. So I'll just say, 2?
__________________
All is for the best in the best of all possible worlds.
sebastian_dangerfield is offline  
Closed Thread

Thread Tools
Display Modes

Posting Rules
You may not post new threads
You may not post replies
You may not post attachments
You may not edit your posts

BB code is On
Smilies are On
[IMG] code is On
HTML code is Off

Forum Jump

Powered by vBadvanced CMPS v3.0.1

All times are GMT -4. The time now is 10:33 AM.