Mother, mother, mother - there's too many of you crying.

[Greedy,Greedy,Greedy]

Originally Posted by sebastian_dangerfield

I haven't followed the DACA thing much (other than those stories about the deportation of the Mexican and Polish guys who've been here for 30 years). But I recall hearing that 75% of Republicans and 90% of Democrats polled support DACA.

What constituency exactly is the GOP catering to here? Am I missing something, or is this just political suicide? Putting aside the indecency of their position, the numbers don't justify it.

They believe screaming "illegals" and making racially tinged comments about the Dreamers wins it for them. If you read the poll questions on "illegal immigrants" or "Haitian or African illegals" rather than the poll questions on "Dreamers" the Republicans see it as playing to their base in places like white Pennsylvania.

[Adder]

Originally Posted by Tyrone Slothrop

There are at least some Republicans who want to protect the Dreamers and at least some who want to screw them. I suspect many would like to signal to their base that they are in the latter camp while not actually doing anything to screw them.

There are also some in the former camp that really don't care and just don't want to pay the political cost of saying they don't care. Which I think is the real obstacle.

The Hastert Rule and 45's flip-flopping are give them cover to keep pretending they care. They haven't been forced to vote on it and are pretty happy about it.

And now the Dream Act will go through committee, get amended out of recognition by Tom Cotton or whomever and McConnell will bring it to the floor in a form that the Dems can't support and be able to claim he met all his promises and they voted against it.

The Dems just don't have the stomach for this game.

[Adder]

Originally Posted by Greedy,Greedy,Greedy

he Dems are going to be both rational and compassionate but we are also likely going to lose this round.

It's already over. They lost yesterday.

[Adder]

Originally Posted by Greedy,Greedy,Greedy

They believe screaming "illegals" and making racially tinged comments about the Dreamers wins it for them. If you read the poll questions on "illegal immigrants" or "Haitian or African illegals" rather than the poll questions on "Dreamers" the Republicans see it as playing to their base in places like white Pennsylvania.

They also think that pretty much anyone who votes on the issue is already not in their camp.

[Tyrone Slothrop]

Originally Posted by Adder

It's already over. They lost yesterday.

I disagree. They got money for CHIP, an agreement for a vote on DACA (which may not be worth anything, but then even that is worth something), and only gave up three weeks of funding.

Whatever the polling, my view is the Republicans lost a little. Because the shutdown doesn't make anyone more likely to vote for a Republican in November, and it undermines the idea that the Republicans are getting things done and that Donald Trump is a dealmaker.

[Greedy,Greedy,Greedy]

Originally Posted by Tyrone Slothrop

I disagree. They got money for CHIP, an agreement for a vote on DACA (which may not be worth anything, but then even that is worth something), and only gave up three weeks of funding.

Whatever the polling, my view is the Republicans lost a little. Because the shutdown doesn't make anyone more likely to vote for a Republican in November, and it undermines the idea that the Republicans are getting things done and that Donald Trump is a dealmaker.

I think the Dems scored a clear win. They got CHIP. Granted, Republicans probably needed to find a way to give them CHIP, and now a bunch of Rs can say they voted for it to centrists and that they had to to the base loonies. But the Dems still got a program the Republican base doesn't want.

And they set up DACA for a stand-alone vote, or they have an immediate hammer if it doesn't happen. That's going to be a tough moment for a lot of swing-district Rs. Even if the R base is increasingly eager to kill DACA.

I think the R base will beat us on DACA and it will become a key election issue. If there is a scenario where the Dems win DACA, that would be absolutely huge given the Republican advantage.

[Adder]

Originally Posted by Tyrone Slothrop

I disagree. They got money for CHIP, an agreement for a vote on DACA (which may not be worth anything, but then even that is worth something), and only gave up three weeks of funding.

They got a thing that the GOP was for anyway and a worthless promise. Yes, they only gave up three weeks of funding to get that worthless promise.

They also signalled that they will cave three weeks from now if the GOP says "illegals" enough, which the GOP is willing to do.

Yesterday, we had a real shot at getting the Dream Act. By no means certain, but nonetheless, an actual possibility if the Dems could stand strong.

They couldn't and McConnel isn't going to believe they will be able to three weeks from now either.

I hope I'm wrong, but I think it's over.

[Adder]

Originally Posted by Greedy,Greedy,Greedy

But the Dems still got a program the Republican base doesn't want.

The Republican base does not care at all about CHIP.

And they set up DACA for a stand-alone vote

Which the GOP sees as a win for them.

That's going to be a tough moment for a lot of swing-district Rs.

It's not. They will vote yes. The Dems will vote no because of the newly added poison pills. GOP gets the substance for it's base and the political issue for swing district voters.

None of this should be hard to see coming. The Dems aren't going to get a better deal when they have less leverage. That's not how it works.

[Tyrone Slothrop]

Originally Posted by Adder

They got a thing that the GOP was for anyway and a worthless promise. Yes, they only gave up three weeks of funding to get that worthless promise.

They got something they wanted, CHIP, in exchange for something else they wanted, the government functioning as normal. They did not give anything up.

They also signalled that they will cave three weeks from now if the GOP says "illegals" enough, which the GOP is willing to do.

Yesterday, we had a real shot at getting the Dream Act. By no means certain, but nonetheless, an actual possibility if the Dems could stand strong.

If you believed before the shutdown that the Dems could get DACA restored, it was because Trump and many Republicans had signaled they could be OK with that. Now they have changed signals and things look worse. If the House GOP is not going to vote to restore DACA, they are not going to vote to restore DACA in order to end a shutdown. There's nothing Democrats can do about that. It's not a question of the Democrats caving. It's a question of not having the votes. If they don't have the votes, then the best they can do is get a vote and make Republicans actually vote against it, instead of posturing around it and letting the program end on its own. In the circumstances, that will be a tactical victory. The Democrats need to go and win 220 House races. (Beating up Chuck Schumer will not help.)

[Greedy,Greedy,Greedy]

Originally Posted by Adder

The Republican base does not care at all about CHIP.



Which the GOP sees as a win for them.



It's not. They will vote yes. The Dems will vote no because of the newly added poison pills. GOP gets the substance for it's base and the political issue for swing district voters.

None of this should be hard to see coming. The Dems aren't going to get a better deal when they have less leverage. That's not how it works.

See, you are looking at this like trump, as a ratings game. This is about policy. This is about states starting to shut down CHIP programs and kids not getting healthcare. This is about people getting deported. In both cases, Chuck and Co. are minimizing the damage despite being in the minority.

What silliness these inter party attacks are. Eyes on the prize, dude, eyes on the prize.

[ThurgreedMarshall]

Originally Posted by Adder

It's already over. They lost yesterday.

This will never be a game Democrats can win without educating a public about issues they clearly don't care about. Everyone (who isn't a Tea Party psycho) is for helping children. But Republicans will actually let funding expire, throwing hundreds of thousands of families into chaos in order to get what they want. That's a game Democrats (or anyone with any kind of compassion) will always lose. Because we will fund a fucking wall if it means not actively shitting all over sick kids. Same with DACA. Same with absolutely any bill that actually helps people.

It's a losing proposition. That's why Dems are always brought in to clean up after Republicans. People only realize the Republican Smash 'N' Grab approach to government after everything is completely fucking broken. And they immediately forget who broke everything the first time someone says "Your taxes are going to lazy Blacks and Mexicans."

TM

[Replaced_Texan]

Originally Posted by Greedy,Greedy,Greedy

They believe screaming "illegals" and making racially tinged comments about the Dreamers wins it for them. If you read the poll questions on "illegal immigrants" or "Haitian or African illegals" rather than the poll questions on "Dreamers" the Republicans see it as playing to their base in places like white Pennsylvania.

I think the level of diversity in a community has a lot to do with how people feel about it. Until very, very recently, it wasn't really an issue that ANYONE wanted to talk about in Texas. Everyone knows someone whose family may not entirely be kosher. And our economy is pretty immigrant labor dependent. The restaurant and construction industries would crumble, I think, if anyone took it too seriously here. A few years back, the legislature tried to do some rah rah rah we don't like immigration thing and then tried to carve out their lawn people and housekeepers and nannys. I don't think they've tried again since.

My housekeeper, who has been working with my family for over 30 years, is from El Salvador. I am pretty sure her kids were born here, and I helped her get her citizenship back when I was in law school. I don't know about her sister, though. Or the rest of her community. A family member's wife is undocumented. He brought her over from Mexico when they first got married without going through proper channels, and she got caught and deported. She came back a year later, and she's been here for 16 plus years*. Her kids were born here. We've talked to immigration lawyers several times about trying to get her presence legit, but she's not even eligible to get in line, much less get to the back of it.

My guess is that in other parts of the country, this isn't as big of an issue or if it is, it's just emerging. And people who don't know someone who is in danger of having their whole life ripped apart because of this doesn't care as much as those of us who do. So when it's a theoretical kid or even 27 year old who didn't even know that they weren't born here, it's a lot easier to say "kick them out" than it is when you're talking about the point guard on your kid's basketball team.

This is a pretty good summary of the state of things in Texas.
https://www.texastribune.org/2016/12...ented-workers/


*I can't remember exactly when they got married, but I went to their daughter's quinceañera last summer, and it was one of the best parties I've been to in the last 10 years.

[Tyrone Slothrop]

Originally Posted by Greedy,Greedy,Greedy

See, you are looking at this like trump, as a ratings game.

And if it is, this. 56% say Trump and congressional Republicans are more to blame. 38% say Democrats. And are any of that 38% less likely to vote for Democrat in November as a result?

[Greedy,Greedy,Greedy]

Originally Posted by ThurgreedMarshall

Everyone (who isn't a Tea Party psycho) is for helping children.

I think you are wrong about this. I think there are a substantial number of people out there who say, sure, it would be nice if kids didn't have to die, but I take care of my own and the rest isn't my problem, don't tax me to pay for it.

[Greedy,Greedy,Greedy]

Originally Posted by Tyrone Slothrop

And if it is, this. 56% say Trump and congressional Republicans are more to blame. 38% say Democrats. And are any of that 38% less likely to vote for Democrat in November as a result?

The really funny thing is I'll bet the 38% who blame dems are half Trump's core base and half Bernie's core base.

But, excellent point.