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Old 06-16-2017, 12:41 PM   #751
Tyrone Slothrop
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Re: You've got no love for the underdog/That's why you will not survive...

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There are no mavericks. They're all going to vote for the secret senate health care bill.
McConnell can let two of them vote against it. Maybe Collins and Murkowski.
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Old 06-16-2017, 12:46 PM   #752
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Re: You've got no love for the underdog/That's why you will not survive...

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Please go read up on the 2016 presidential election polling. You don't understand what happened.
The polls were spot on, and they were posted here, IIRC. What was off was bullshit analysts (hi 538!). My wife would quote from the times each morning, "today it's 70% chance Hil is going to win!" And I ask how that could be given the polls. In retrospect those predictions probably are as much to blame as anything, giving lefties peace to vote for Stein, or Johnson.
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Old 06-16-2017, 12:54 PM   #753
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Re: You've got no love for the underdog/That's why you will not survive...

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The polls were spot on, and they were posted here, IIRC. What was off was bullshit analysts (hi 538!). My wife would quote from the times each morning, "today it's 70% chance Hil is going to win!" And I ask how that could be given the polls. In retrospect those predictions probably are as much to blame as anything, given lefties peace to vote for Stein, or Johnson.
If you (not you, Hank, but one) accept that the polls are not an attempt to directly predict what the vote will be, but an indirect indicator that will come pretty close, then it's no mystery that the polls will be off by some factor, and that in a close election this can be decisive. If Nate Silver says, there's a 70% chance that HRC is going to win, then he's saying, on the same factual predicate, there's a 30% chance that Trump is going to win. If I say there's a 50% chance that I'll flip this coin and it's heads, and then it's tails, it doesn't mean that I was wrong. It Nate Silver's case, an advantage or disadvantage of his art form is that it's completely untestable. When Trump won, was Silver wrong or was it just the less likely outcome coming to pass? You can't tell.
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Old 06-16-2017, 01:40 PM   #754
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Re: You've got no love for the underdog/That's why you will not survive...

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In retrospect those predictions probably are as much to blame as anything, given lefties peace to vote for Stein, or Johnson.
I couldn't possibly ever agree with you more.

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Old 06-16-2017, 01:44 PM   #755
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Re: You've got no love for the underdog/That's why you will not survive...

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If you (not you, Hank, but one) accept that the polls are not an attempt to directly predict what the vote will be, but an indirect indicator that will come pretty close, then it's no mystery that the polls will be off by some factor, and that in a close election this can be decisive. If Nate Silver says, there's a 70% chance that HRC is going to win, then he's saying, on the same factual predicate, there's a 30% chance that Trump is going to win. If I say there's a 50% chance that I'll flip this coin and it's heads, and then it's tails, it doesn't mean that I was wrong. It Nate Silver's case, an advantage or disadvantage of his art form is that it's completely untestable. When Trump won, was Silver wrong or was it just the less likely outcome coming to pass? You can't tell.
The guy who taught me to do litigation, when asked by a client to predict a % chance of winning, would say: "I won't, I'll tell you you have a good case, but I'm not going to guess a percent. Besides, if I say there's only a 10% Chance you'll lose, if you lose you still lose 100%."

Predictions are dangerous and stupid. I know one person who voted third party and he pointed to the prediction to justify the vote.
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Old 06-16-2017, 02:46 PM   #756
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Re: You've got no love for the underdog/That's why you will not survive...

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Originally Posted by Hank Chinaski View Post
The polls were spot on, and they were posted here, IIRC. What was off was bullshit analysts (hi 538!). My wife would quote from the times each morning, "today it's 70% chance Hil is going to win!" And I ask how that could be given the polls. In retrospect those predictions probably are as much to blame as anything, given lefties peace to vote for Stein, or Johnson.
https://www.nytimes.com/2017/05/31/u...rump.html?_r=0

If you're argument is the national popular vote polls were spot-on, but the state polls were off, I buy that: https://www.nytimes.com/interactive/...tive.html?_r=0
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Old 06-16-2017, 02:50 PM   #757
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Re: You've got no love for the underdog/That's why you will not survive...

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I couldn't possibly ever agree with you more.

TM
Yup. Exactly right.

Look, I admit there were turns when I was overconfident. But we all understand that there are even while there are some morons out there who may have voted third party even knowing it would elect Trump, many of the morons who voted third party did so believing there was no risk to it, and we should have all been more vigilant.
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Old 06-16-2017, 02:56 PM   #758
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Re: You've got no love for the underdog/That's why you will not survive...

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The guy who taught me to do litigation, when asked by a client to predict a % chance of winning, would say: "I won't, I'll tell you you have a good case, but I'm not going to guess a percent. Besides, if I say there's only a 10% Chance you'll lose, if you lose you still lose 100%."

Predictions are dangerous and stupid. I know one person who voted third party and he pointed to the prediction to justify the vote.
My line on this (and I do a lot less litigation), is that before I tell them what I think of their case they should remember that three quarters of all litigants lose. Then I pause and they look at me quizzically, and I say, half of them lose the case, half of them win the case, and of the half that won half of those spend more time and money on the case than it was worth, so they still lose.

Then I tell them their odds depend mostly on things we won't know until the case is over, so it's senseless to try to guess them today.
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Old 06-16-2017, 03:01 PM   #759
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Re: You've got no love for the underdog/That's why you will not survive...

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Except that it's entirely self-inflicted. Had he just said, "Foreign interference in our elections is entirely unacceptable and we're going to do everything to make sure it can't happen" and let the FBI counterintelligence investigation play out, he'd be fine (assuming there's nothing to find).

Instead, he insisted there's nothing there, tried to shut down the investigation, bragged that he did so by firing Comey, asked the DNI and the deputy director of the NSA (I think it was) to publicly say there's no collusion, told the intelligence agencies that they're wrong, apparently randomly blurts out that he's not under investigation, repeatedly denied he was with any Russian prostitutes and otherwise acted like he's guilty as hell.

Meanwhile, we don't really know if he's guilty as hell. He might just be a petulant man-baby whose ego can't handle any suggestion that he didn't win fair and square... sorry, bigly... who crybabied his way into a criminal obstruction investigation.

Either way, this shit is on him.
I couldn't agree more. He's grasping defeat from the jaws of victory. And Chapter 11 doesn't protect one here.
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Old 06-16-2017, 03:07 PM   #760
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Re: You've got no love for the underdog/That's why you will not survive...

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Originally Posted by sebastian_dangerfield View Post
https://www.nytimes.com/2017/05/31/u...rump.html?_r=0

If you're argument is the national popular vote polls were spot-on, but the state polls were off, I buy that: https://www.nytimes.com/interactive/...tive.html?_r=0
It was only 7 months ago. I posted polls HERE from realclearpolitics that showed Michigan and Pa were in play. Obama and hil were in the both states the week before the election. The last time Mi saw Obama in 2008 was September. The dems knew there was trouble. And I also posted totals showing if Hil lost EITHER Mi or Pa Trump would win.

Those are facts. And realclearpolitics posts raw polls and averages. The times was off, but the polls were not.
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Old 06-16-2017, 04:06 PM   #761
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Re: You've got no love for the underdog/That's why you will not survive...

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It was only 7 months ago. I posted polls HERE from realclearpolitics that showed Michigan and Pa were in play. Obama and hil were in the both states the week before the election. The last time Mi saw Obama in 2008 was September. The dems knew there was trouble. And I also posted totals showing if Hil lost EITHER Mi or Pa Trump would win.

Those are facts. And realclearpolitics posts raw polls and averages. The times was off, but the polls were not.
In a just world, you would get all the riches that are going to Nate Silver, and he would spending his time trying to win The Moth in different cities, amiright?
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Old 06-16-2017, 04:16 PM   #762
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Re: You've got no love for the underdog/That's why you will not survive...

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In a just world, you would get all the riches that are going to Nate Silver, and he would spending his time trying to win The Moth in different cities, amiright?
Not trying to claim credit, just trying to call bullshit.
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Old 06-16-2017, 04:25 PM   #763
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Re: You've got no love for the underdog/That's why you will not survive...

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Not trying to claim credit, just trying to call bullshit.
I'm old enough to remember when Hank would have responded with a triumphant listing of all the cities he's won.
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Old 06-16-2017, 04:41 PM   #764
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Re: You've got no love for the underdog/That's why you will not survive...

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I couldn't possibly ever agree with you more.

TM
I completely disagree with you both. Because I am tired of this echo chamber. Also, I know that you are taking a break from Sebastian, but did you see how he places significant blame for the polarization of this country on extreme leftism? I point this out, knowing that you are on a Sebastian break, because I think I maybe remember one time where you declared that you were done engaging with Sebastian, and then ended up actually debating with him again when he said something even more outrageous than usual. But I may be misremembering.

James Brown for the Daily Dose. "World of Soul":

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=KOpK7y9S5Bo
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Old 06-16-2017, 04:45 PM   #765
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Re: You've got no love for the underdog/That's why you will not survive...

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I'm old enough to remember when Hank would have responded with a triumphant listing of all the cities he's won.
remember when McDonald's quit listing how many burgers it sold and switched to just "millions and millions served."
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