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Old Today, 12:55 AM   #4711
sebastian_dangerfield
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Re: Mother, mother, mother - there's too many of you crying.

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Originally Posted by LessinSF View Post
But I don't think I want to live to be 90 - http://www.chicagotribune.com/lifest...220-story.html
God exists.

And fucking hates me.
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Old Today, 01:17 AM   #4712
sebastian_dangerfield
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Re: Mother, mother, mother - there's too many of you crying.

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Originally Posted by Adder View Post
Some reading for Sebby.
Thank you. Rambling, but there's no other way to offer a comprehensive view of the subject.

On the final points...

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1. Technological unemployment is not happening right now, at least not more so than previous eras. The official statistics are confusing, but they show no signs of increases in this phenomenon. (70% confidence)

2. On the other hand, there are signs of technological underemployment – robots taking middle-skill jobs and then pushing people into other jobs. Although some people will be “pushed” into higher-skill jobs, many will be pushed into lower-skill jobs. This seems to be what happened to the manufacturing industry recently. (70% confidence)
Yup. Cloudy. And there's no way to tease truly conclusive analysis out of what's available.

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3. This sort of thing has been happening for centuries and in theory everyone should eventually adjust, but there are some signs that they aren’t. This may have as much to do with changes to the educational, political, and economic system as with the nature of robots per se. (60% confidence)
I'd go with 80% here. If you've dealt with consumer debt, you've seen a category of human emerge who is simply not equipped to deal with even low level complexity (loan terms, credit management strategy, etc.). And then there are loads of people who simply don't care to do so. They might be able to understand their health insurance, home insurance, or adjustable rate mortgage... but they've got different priorities.

I'd split the country into people Who Really Dig Disney and Go There on Credit, and everybody else. Robots own some blame. Education some, too. But a lot of this is self-inflicted.

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4. Economists are genuinely divided on how this is going to end up, and whether this will just be a temporary blip while people develop new skills, or the new normal. (~100% confidence)
I want Option C: Keynes' Leisure Society.

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5. Technology seems poised to disrupt lots of new industries very soon, and could replace humans entirely sometime within the next hundred years. (???)

This is a very depressing conclusion. If technology didn’t cause problems, that would be great. If technology made lots of people unemployed, that would be hard to miss, and the government might eventually be willing to subsidize something like a universal basic income. But we won’t get that. We’ll just get people being pushed into worse and worse jobs, in a way that does not inspire widespread sympathy or collective action. The prospect of educational, social, or political intervention remains murky.
Universal Basic Income has to happen. The rest of the fixes are too incremental for the breadth and speed of the problem. After the GOP implodes, it'll be possible. It'll spend us into insolvency with COLAS and add-ons by 2200, but... IBGYBG.
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