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Old Today, 04:38 PM   #3661
Did you just call me Coltrane?
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Re: We are all Slave now.

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Originally Posted by Greedy,Greedy,Greedy View Post
Come on, Hank. There are ways to squeeze them out. If you really need to, introduce a two-tiered partnership approach. Shrink comp for the bottom of the stack. Cut support. Charge-back associate time or other things.

After all, you're the Man.
My old firm was like Terry Pratchett's Lord Vetinari: “Ankh-Morpork had dallied with many forms of government and had ended up with that form of democracy known as One Man, One Vote. The Patrician was the Man; he had the Vote."
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Old Today, 04:48 PM   #3662
ThurgreedMarshall
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Re: We are all Slave now.

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Originally Posted by Hank Chinaski View Post
or like, PR? Ty says "no! Unless you got 40 million people FUCK YOU! .......No Senators for you!"
If it weren't for Sebby, you would be the most ridiculous person on this board.

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Old Today, 05:00 PM   #3663
Hank Chinaski
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Re: We are all Slave now.

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If it weren't for Sebby, you would be the most ridiculous person on this board.

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coming from you, that is a compliment?
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Old Today, 05:16 PM   #3664
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Re: We are all Slave now.

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Originally Posted by Hank Chinaski View Post
coming from you, that is a compliment?
You're not sure of your response?

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Old Today, 05:27 PM   #3665
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Re: We are all Slave now.

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Originally Posted by Did you just call me Coltrane? View Post
My old firm was like Terry Pratchett's Lord Vetinari: “Ankh-Morpork had dallied with many forms of government and had ended up with that form of democracy known as One Man, One Vote. The Patrician was the Man; he had the Vote."
Listen to what the Man said.
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Old Today, 05:54 PM   #3666
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Re: We are all Slave now.

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Yes, I'm being "hysterical." Meanwhile, you can't think about anything from a viewpoint that is not your own. Which is pretty obvious from your "why don't they just move if they aren't treated fairly" solution.
A big part of what's wrong with Americans - most notably lazy white entitled Americans - is refusal to Move Where The Economy Is Good.

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There's a gotta be a term for when you make groups of people migrate to be secure in their person on the basis of their race, gender, religion or other characteristics...
That's your re-framing of the issue. I was raising economic arguments.
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Old Today, 06:00 PM   #3667
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Re: We are all Slave now.

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Originally Posted by Tyrone Slothrop View Post
Yes, getting angry at the people who admitted Wyoming to the Union is obviously the most productive thing to do now.
I've nothing against natives of Wyoming, but I would like to see ski tourists humble-bragging on social media, "Me falling at Corbett's Couloir!" somehow barred from the state.
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Old Today, 06:17 PM   #3668
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Re: We are all Slave now.

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I just picked one year to illustrate my point. Step back. We have been in a long expansion which started early in the Obama Administration and has continued to the present. If you want to make a case for Trump, go nuts, but the obvious story is that he inherited a good economy from Obama and hasn't fucked it up. The two big things he has done that plausibly would make a difference are the tax cut, which is unnecessary stimulus, and trade policy, which is not helping but hasn't blown things up (yet).
I'm not going to go all Robert Shiller here, but sentiment counts for something. He's enhanced sentiment among small to mid-sized businesses. It took a while, as unpredictability was cancelling out that positive sentiment. But that seems to have passed for the moment. It's not morning in America, of course. It's more like morning in Bizarro America. But respected analysts are now saying we may not see a recession for another two years. That could be the sign of a top. But as I said earlier, everyone making that bet for the past ten months has fallen down the proverbial wall of worry.

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Look, you know what sector I'm in. Are folks happy that the federal government isn't pretty to regulate? Sure. Does it really help businesses grow? I am skeptical.
You should be. I could see the traditional players buying off Trump's people and enhancing regulation of your sector. Trump and his people are nothing if not for sale.

I also agree with you in a broader sense. Deregulation doesn't translate into profits immediately. The only thing that does that is dollars in the hands of consumers. (I subscribe to the view that all real growth is ultimately driven by consumer spending.) That happens two ways: Wage or credit growth. Deregulation allows for the latter. The former is of course far more preferable.

ETA: I could entertain the argument that regulation enhances profits, particularly in emerging sectors where bigger players get to make those regs to suit their interests and preclude competition. But that's not true profit. That's creating and exploiting a barrier to entry. That's a lot of what's deeply wrong with regulation and law in this country.

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No. But (a) you do like playing the provocateur, and (b) the story you've told is missing the part where you explain how collecting the underpants leads to PROFITS.
I started this by saying Trump was working out well for my family, as we've exposure to domestic middle class consumers. I can confidently say that, even with costs of operation increasing, I assume as a result of inflation, profits have increased significantly post-Trump. It's entirely correlation, but looking for other causes, I'm coming up short. Things were moving upward during Obama's tenure, but not at the same rate.

I'm as surprised as anyone. But pleasantly so.
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Old Today, 06:32 PM   #3669
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Re: We are all Slave now.

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Originally Posted by Greedy,Greedy,Greedy View Post
I think it's pretty clear what happens in the first two years of Trump. First, he inherits a pretty strong economy, but also one tiring near the end of the cycle. He gets the benefit of some initial exuberance, especially from investors who are hopeful he's going to do what they want. Then he gets sugar highs into the economy from two sources: first, a tax cut that puts a couple trillion dollars in the hands of corporations and wealthy individuals, something that won't have a long term effect but does put some money out there, and second, a bunch of economic shifts that occur in anticipation of a trade war - things like the Chinese stocking up on soy just before the tariffs hit (and that series of purchases added nearly a full percent to GDP in a single quarter).

Unfortunately, besides these just being sugar highs, we're also seeing the slow gutting of the jobs created by the ACA, hitting on a state-by-state basis.

So, in the second two years, he has to move from sugar highs to coke highs or he has to deal with some of the inevitable retrenching, like post-Brownback Kansas. Guess which one he is going to go for?
I agree with much of this. I also agree that he will go from sugar to coke to meth to to keep the numbers where he thinks they ought to be. He knows that if the economy tanks, given his fragile popularity, he's toast.

I don't think gutting ACA jobs is a big deal. HC has low multiplier effect. If Trump would get off his ass on infrastructure, he could produce 1/2 the number of those ACA jobs with 3X the multiplier effect.

But my main point was on sentiment. For reasons I cannot grasp, he's shifted sentiment among business owners. It should not work. Particularly in development, the cost increases from the tariffs (between 10-20%) should have strong negative impact. But so far? Not seeing it. But YMMV. And it's still early. Maybe it's coming. But maybe not.
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