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Old 01-23-2018, 05:29 PM   #4051
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Re: Mother, mother, mother - there's too many of you crying.

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Originally Posted by Tyrone Slothrop View Post
This, too, is not quite right. Republicans basically wanted to re-up CHIP and they finally did. They were nonetheless hoping to use it as a hostage to get something out of the Democrats, which failed -- all they got was an end to the shutdown, which is something the Democrats wanted as much as they did.
I think Greedy is right that there are *many* Republicans who want CHIP gone. But those that don't are still okay playing chicken with it. You think for a second Republicans cave if the result is CHIP goes under and they don't get to fuck Schumer on that "clean" DACA vote that's coming up? They managed to turn a non-controversial program they should have just continued funding into a bargaining chip to force Democrats into having to shut down the government over protecting non-citizens.

But if Schumer says, "Fuck you. CHIP and DACA [both of which we had a bipartisan agreement on before Trump threw a fit] or the government stays shut down," Republicans cave? You're crazy.

TM
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Old 01-23-2018, 05:34 PM   #4052
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Re: Mother, mother, mother - there's too many of you crying.

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I had not seen that. I think that's combining the people who want to see DACA ended with the people who want to see it continued but who don't feel that strongly. No one really wants to see the government shut down.
But this is a very important poll. If you say, "most people support extending DACA and don't want Dreamers deported," that means nothing because it's not connected to anything. Once you connect it to something, people in this country no longer give a fuck. Republicans live off of that shit like flies live on shit.

TM
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Old 01-23-2018, 05:51 PM   #4053
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Re: Mother, mother, mother - there's too many of you crying.

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I think Greedy is right that there are *many* Republicans who want CHIP gone. But those that don't are still okay playing chicken with it. You think for a second Republicans cave if the result is CHIP goes under and they don't get to fuck Schumer on that "clean" DACA vote that's coming up? They managed to turn a non-controversial program they should have just continued funding into a bargaining chip to force Democrats into having to shut down the government over protecting non-citizens.
But they only got three weeks of continued government operation out of a party that likes having the government open, so it wasn't that much of a bargaining chip.

CHIP and the shutdown are low-stakes poker. Most people like both and no one feels that strongly about either.

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But if Schumer says, "Fuck you. CHIP and DACA [both of which we had a bipartisan agreement on before Trump threw a fit] or the government stays shut down," Republicans cave? You're crazy.
Agree with you completely on this. DACA is a much bigger chip, because some people on each side really care about it a lot.
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Old 01-23-2018, 05:53 PM   #4054
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Re: Mother, mother, mother - there's too many of you crying.

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But this is a very important poll. If you say, "most people support extending DACA and don't want Dreamers deported," that means nothing because it's not connected to anything. Once you connect it to something, people in this country no longer give a fuck. Republicans live off of that shit like flies live on shit.

TM
Many people no longer give a fuck, and they are probably not going to vote on the issue in the fall no matter what happens, so it is the people who really care and vote who drive the politicians to act. And there are those people on both sides of this issue, which makes a deal hard to get.
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Old 01-23-2018, 05:54 PM   #4055
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Re: Mother, mother, mother - there's too many of you crying.

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I think the level of diversity in a community has a lot to do with how people feel about it. Until very, very recently, it wasn't really an issue that ANYONE wanted to talk about in Texas. Everyone knows someone whose family may not entirely be kosher. And our economy is pretty immigrant labor dependent. The restaurant and construction industries would crumble, I think, if anyone took it too seriously here. A few years back, the legislature tried to do some rah rah rah we don't like immigration thing and then tried to carve out their lawn people and housekeepers and nannys. I don't think they've tried again since.

My housekeeper, who has been working with my family for over 30 years, is from El Salvador. I am pretty sure her kids were born here, and I helped her get her citizenship back when I was in law school. I don't know about her sister, though. Or the rest of her community. A family member's wife is undocumented. He brought her over from Mexico when they first got married without going through proper channels, and she got caught and deported. She came back a year later, and she's been here for 16 plus years*. Her kids were born here. We've talked to immigration lawyers several times about trying to get her presence legit, but she's not even eligible to get in line, much less get to the back of it.

My guess is that in other parts of the country, this isn't as big of an issue or if it is, it's just emerging. And people who don't know someone who is in danger of having their whole life ripped apart because of this doesn't care as much as those of us who do. So when it's a theoretical kid or even 27 year old who didn't even know that they weren't born here, it's a lot easier to say "kick them out" than it is when you're talking about the point guard on your kid's basketball team.

This is a pretty good summary of the state of things in Texas.
https://www.texastribune.org/2016/12...ented-workers/


*I can't remember exactly when they got married, but I went to their daughter's quinceañera last summer, and it was one of the best parties I've been to in the last 10 years.
Summer 2016, when Trump was emerging as the candidate, I was at dinner with my son and Haitian immigrant DIL. She had just gotten her first green card, based upon marriage. At the time, Trump hated on Muslim countries and Mexico. I said I just think what it would be like if my son had fallen in love with an Egyptian. My DIL said "or a Mexican." Point is we were not smug that Trump's evil eye had not yet turned to other countries; we were bothered by it then. And we assumed the guy would lose.

Now she is looking at applying for her permanent green card next month, but they recently divorced. She will have to prove the marriage was legit and not for immigration status. There is an exception if we/she can show that it was, and it was legit. I want to argue, as a lawyer, if a sham, why divorce just before the time to apply for permanent is here?

Our lawyer says she has never seen the exception turned down, but this is a time where "nevers" happen all the time. She is a great kid, a monster work ethic, America is so much better for her being here. But I will spend the next months worried. I hope the civil service folks making this decision are removed from the politics.
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Old 01-23-2018, 05:57 PM   #4056
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Re: Mother, mother, mother - there's too many of you crying.

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Originally Posted by Tyrone Slothrop View Post
But they only got three weeks of continued government operation out of a party that likes having the government open, so it wasn't that much of a bargaining chip.

CHIP and the shutdown are low-stakes poker. Most people like both and no one feels that strongly about either.

Agree with you completely on this. DACA is a much bigger chip, because some people on each side really care about it a lot.
But isn't that the point? They managed to untie CHIP from DACA in the fight over shutting down the government, which--as we see from that poll--is a much better negotiating position for Republicans. And even if Schumer managed to keep the two things tied together, Republicans are perfectly happy to set the whole thing on fire. (i) A lot of them think they're not getting re-elected anyway and (ii) those who are safe hate government and CHIP and DACA. You cannot play chicken with these assholes.

TM

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Old 01-23-2018, 06:04 PM   #4057
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Re: Mother, mother, mother - there's too many of you crying.

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But isn't that the point? They managed to untie CHIP from DACA in the fight over shutting down the government, which--as we see from that poll--is a much better negotiating position for Republicans. And even if Schumer managed to keep the two things tied together, Republicans are perfectly happy to set the whole thing on fire. (i) A lot of them think they're not getting re-elected anyway and (ii) those who are safe hate government and CHIP and DACA. You cannot play chicken with these assholes.

TM
I'm not sure what we're arguing about. I think you and I agree that Adder is wrong. I don't think Schumer could have gotten more than he did this time. He had a weak hand, played it well, and didn't get much. The Republicans also had a weak hand, played it poorly, and didn't get much. The big question is what happens to DACA. Once Trump came out against it, Schumer knew he wasn't going to be able to force Trump to back down with the hand he had. (If they get vote, I doubt they can overcome a veto.)
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Old 01-23-2018, 06:29 PM   #4058
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Re: Mother, mother, mother - there's too many of you crying.

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I'm not sure what we're arguing about. I think you and I agree that Adder is wrong. I don't think Schumer could have gotten more than he did this time. He had a weak hand, played it well, and didn't get much. The Republicans also had a weak hand, played it poorly, and didn't get much. The big question is what happens to DACA. Once Trump came out against it, Schumer knew he wasn't going to be able to force Trump to back down with the hand he had. (If they get vote, I doubt they can overcome a veto.)
I was mostly venting. But I do think Republicans actually played their hand well.* Divorcing DACA from CHIP means any hardball either party plays will now be seen as Democrats shutting government down over an issue that affects only non-citizens. That poll I cited to gives Republicans all the leverage they need to completely derail a fair bill. So, I guess I'm disagreeing about how effective Schumer's move really is.

The venting comes in because it would be great if Schumer said, "Fuck you, no deal unless we get CHIP and DACA." That would be politically shrewd, but impossible practically, because Republicans would call Schumer's bluff. They don't give a fuck. And Schumer would have to cave because Democrats actually care about people.

TM

*Partly because Republicans can't be negotiated with given their propensity to blowing up everything if they don't get their way

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Old 01-23-2018, 06:31 PM   #4059
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Re: Mother, mother, mother - there's too many of you crying.

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I was mostly venting. But I do think Republicans actually played their hand well.* Divorcing DACA from CHIP means any hardball either party plays will now be seen as Democrats shutting government down over an issue that affects only non-citizens. That poll I cited to gives Republicans all the leverage they need to completely derail a fair bill. So, I guess I'm disagreeing about how effective Schumer's move really is.

TM

*Partly because Republicans can't be negotiated with given their propensity to blowing up everything if they don't get their way
If you're Schumer, now you don't tie DACA to lifting another shutdown. You just insist on the vote McConnell already said he'd give to the issue.
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Old 01-23-2018, 06:36 PM   #4060
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Re: Mother, mother, mother - there's too many of you crying.

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If you're Schumer, now you don't tie DACA to lifting another shutdown. You just insist on the vote McConnell already said he'd give to the issue.
Come on. McConnell isn't giving him a clean vote on a legit bill. We (you, me, and Schumer) know that. And no one is paying close enough attention to care about what kind of vote McConnell gives him. How long is Schumer going to shut down government over the type of DACA bill he gets to vote on?

And when he caves, the Bernie Bros don't shut up. Ever.

TM
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Old 01-23-2018, 07:07 PM   #4061
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Re: Mother, mother, mother - there's too many of you crying.

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Come on. McConnell isn't giving him a clean vote on a legit bill. We (you, me, and Schumer) know that. And no one is paying close enough attention to care about what kind of vote McConnell gives him. How long is Schumer going to shut down government over the type of DACA bill he gets to vote on?

And when he caves, the Bernie Bros don't shut up. Ever.

TM
They're increasing the ask on immigration daily. They want to end the diversity lottery, the system in place for almost three decades to lessen the bias of the system toward Western Europeans. They want to end family reunification provisions. They want the fucking wall. They will not allow a clean vote on DACA, they will put forward an immigration termination bill that Dems will need to kill. Then they will screw the Dreamers. And if you get mad at Chuck Schumer for this instead of at the Republicans, you're a fucking enabler not a progressive.

Chuck's job is to hold the caucus together to oppose that catastrophe, and that is likely going to be a very tough job.
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Old 01-23-2018, 07:12 PM   #4062
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Re: Mother, mother, mother - there's too many of you crying.

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Summer 2016, when Trump was emerging as the candidate, I was at dinner with my son and Haitian immigrant DIL. She had just gotten her first green card, based upon marriage. At the time, Trump hated on Muslim countries and Mexico. I said I just think what it would be like if my son had fallen in love with an Egyptian. My DIL said "or a Mexican." Point is we were not smug that Trump's evil eye had not yet turned to other countries; we were bothered by it then. And we assumed the guy would lose.

Now she is looking at applying for her permanent green card next month, but they recently divorced. She will have to prove the marriage was legit and not for immigration status. There is an exception if we/she can show that it was, and it was legit. I want to argue, as a lawyer, if a sham, why divorce just before the time to apply for permanent is here?

Our lawyer says she has never seen the exception turned down, but this is a time where "nevers" happen all the time. She is a great kid, a monster work ethic, America is so much better for her being here. But I will spend the next months worried. I hope the civil service folks making this decision are removed from the politics.
One summer in law school I did research for an immigration prof who focused on constitutional challenges to immigration law and a lot of his cases involved attempts to invalidate marriages. That was a long time ago, but it happened quite a bit then.
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Old 01-23-2018, 07:29 PM   #4063
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Re: Mother, mother, mother - there's too many of you crying.

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One summer in law school I did research for an immigration prof who focused on constitutional challenges to immigration law and a lot of his cases involved attempts to invalidate marriages. That was a long time ago, but it happened quite a bit then.
it's a weird question. My son and DIL were in love. 25 years ago my wife's brother (somewhat compromised from an open head injury at 3) married a bride from the Philippines. We saw the first letter she sent him. There was a photo. On the back she wrote "see my smile, I'm smiling because I want to marry you." That is an every day legit marriage?
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Old 01-23-2018, 07:52 PM   #4064
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Re: Mother, mother, mother - there's too many of you crying.

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it's a weird question. My son and DIL were in love. 25 years ago my wife's brother (somewhat compromised from an open head injury at 3) married a bride from the Philippines. We saw the first letter she sent him. There was a photo. On the back she wrote "see my smile, I'm smiling because I want to marry you." That is an every day legit marriage?
Are arranged marriages illegitimate? Does it matter whether you come out of a culture where it is common?

My grandfather died in WWI. My grandmother had two kids under the age of five and a farm to run, and married a guy she didn't really love out of desperation. She never really hid that fact. Legit marriage?

Who are any of us to question why someone else gets married?
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Old 01-23-2018, 08:31 PM   #4065
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Re: Mother, mother, mother - there's too many of you crying.

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Are arranged marriages illegitimate? Does it matter whether you come out of a culture where it is common?

My grandfather died in WWI. My grandmother had two kids under the age of five and a farm to run, and married a guy she didn't really love out of desperation. She never really hid that fact. Legit marriage?

Who are any of us to question why someone else gets married?
Not really in a space to extrapolate just yet.
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