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Old 11-07-2017, 04:37 PM   #2731
Pretty Little Flower
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Re: Time for a Crash

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Originally Posted by Tyrone Slothrop View Post
A person walked into a bar. Sebby said, hello Neo-Liberal Economist.
A Neo-Liberal Economist walks into a bar and orders a beer. It was a pragmatic short term solution to his thirst and vexing sobriety, but was essentially a palliative measure that did nothing to address the root causes of the problems.

This game is kind of dumb.
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Old 11-07-2017, 04:40 PM   #2732
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Re: Time for a Crash

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Originally Posted by Pretty Little Flower View Post
A Neo-Liberal Economist walks into a bar and orders a beer. It was a pragmatic short term solution to his thirst and vexing sobriety, but was essentially a palliative measure that did nothing to address the root causes of the problems.

This game is kind of dumb.
What did the Neo-Liberal Economist say when he walked into a bar?

Ouch.
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Old 11-07-2017, 04:42 PM   #2733
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From Ray Dalio, Malthusian

https://www.cnbc.com/2017/11/07/bill...e-economy.html
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Old 11-07-2017, 04:50 PM   #2734
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Re: Time for a Crash

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Originally Posted by Pretty Little Flower View Post
A Neo-Liberal Economist walks into a bar and orders a beer. It was a pragmatic short term solution to his thirst and vexing sobriety, but was essentially a palliative measure that did nothing to address the root causes of the problems.

This game is kind of dumb.
Wow! You found one!

So Neo-Liberal Economists are people who drink beer when they're thirsty.
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Old 11-07-2017, 09:08 PM   #2735
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Re: Mother, mother, mother - there's too many of you crying.

Dems in Disarray!
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Old 11-07-2017, 09:20 PM   #2736
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Re: Mother, mother, mother - there's too many of you crying.

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Originally Posted by Tyrone Slothrop View Post
for anyone who cares about this country to not boycott 538 makes me ill. 538 is why we have trump. for 538 to report on R's losing stuff it should say, "because we ignored polls and lulled everyone into a false sense of security, space fucks voted third party, and now that an insane person is prez, voters are turning against his party." If it posted that then maybe you can read it, but otherwise, no.
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Old 11-08-2017, 10:33 AM   #2737
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Re: Time for a Crash

Time for a crash indeed.

Observations

1. I am loathe to agree with sebby on almost anything. Yet his obsession about robotics and the long term effect on employment has a good deal of validity. Look at our own profession. There was a time when platoons of associates did document discovery, and the lead associate/fungible work unit became the master of the facts for either negotiations, or, if necessary, trials. The head associate then sat second seat at the trial, making the partner look good.

Those platoons of associates have been replaced by a squad of electronic discovery technocrats who can computerize the documents, sort them chronologically, or by subject matter, or keyword, or by author, in a heartbeat.

This Board has discussed the foregoing point endlessly; I just think it ends poorly for the future workforce, particularly in professions and manufacturing. And what the ‘bots don’t get, cheap overseas labor will...

2. I am taking some S&P 500 index profits off the table today. I believe the run-up is over. Cumulative little signs seem to me to indicate that the long slog out of the Great Recession has peaked. Stupid things, taken in isolation, seem cumulative.

Fast casual food places have reached maximum expansions. Same with Starbucks.

There hasn’t been even a hint of a infrastructure spending bill.

Numbnuts will foul our existing international trade relations to the detriment of the economy.

Many of the jobs that have been created over the last 5 years underemploy the people taking those positions. Better than the dole but insufficient to build a better life.

The pervasive negativity of the majority party and the pervasive ineptitiude of the minority party.

Unsustainable state and municipal debt.

Heroin.

3. Even the good news doesn’t seem to be that good, when examined. My adopted home state of Virginia just took a massive Dump on Trump. Excellent….until you look at the map of the state by county. The high population areas of Northern Virginia, Richmond, Tidewater, and (I think) the area around Virginia Tech at Blacksburg turned out in force and resolutely moved the Virginia chess pieces to the Democrats. But looking at the map shows that the negative Republican campaign still commands huge portions of the state.

I’m a profit-taker today.
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Old 11-08-2017, 10:51 AM   #2738
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Re: Time for a Crash

Quote:
Originally Posted by ferrets_bueller View Post
Time for a crash indeed.

Observations

1. I am loathe to agree with sebby on almost anything. Yet his obsession about robotics and the long term effect on employment has a good deal of validity. Look at our own profession. There was a time when platoons of associates did document discovery, and the lead associate/fungible work unit became the master of the facts for either negotiations, or, if necessary, trials. The head associate then sat second seat at the trial, making the partner look good.

Those platoons of associates have been replaced by a squad of electronic discovery technocrats who can computerize the documents, sort them chronologically, or by subject matter, or keyword, or by author, in a heartbeat.

This Board has discussed the foregoing point endlessly; I just think it ends poorly for the future workforce, particularly in professions and manufacturing. And what the ‘bots don’t get, cheap overseas labor will...

2. I am taking some S&P 500 index profits off the table today. I believe the run-up is over. Cumulative little signs seem to me to indicate that the long slog out of the Great Recession has peaked. Stupid things, taken in isolation, seem cumulative.

Fast casual food places have reached maximum expansions. Same with Starbucks.

There hasn’t been even a hint of a infrastructure spending bill.

Numbnuts will foul our existing international trade relations to the detriment of the economy.

Many of the jobs that have been created over the last 5 years underemploy the people taking those positions. Better than the dole but insufficient to build a better life.

The pervasive negativity of the majority party and the pervasive ineptitiude of the minority party.

Unsustainable state and municipal debt.

Heroin.

3. Even the good news doesn’t seem to be that good, when examined. My adopted home state of Virginia just took a massive Dump on Trump. Excellent….until you look at the map of the state by county. The high population areas of Northern Virginia, Richmond, Tidewater, and (I think) the area around Virginia Tech at Blacksburg turned out in force and resolutely moved the Virginia chess pieces to the Democrats. But looking at the map shows that the negative Republican campaign still commands huge portions of the state.

I’m a profit-taker today.
Enjoy the profits.

I'm afraid the changes in law aren't driven mainly by technology, but instead by the strange economics that led us to massively increase associate compensation at the same time large parts of the business were being commodified. We still have more lawyers than any society in its right mind needs.

I'm more worried about robots replacing agricultural workers than lawyers. And they are. But there are alternate areas of great growth, notably healthcare, where a wealthy, automated service economy can create large numbers of jobs that are better than the ones being lost.

One of the interesting parts of this equation is the gender disparities. The most at risk jobs are ones traditionally held by men, while many of the ones traditionally held by women, often caregiving and educational in nature, are the ones we ought to be investing in.

Make a cultural shift away from the traditional roles and their misogyny and the economy looks much better for the next generation.
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Last edited by Greedy,Greedy,Greedy; 11-08-2017 at 10:56 AM.
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Old 11-08-2017, 10:56 AM   #2739
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Re: Mother, mother, mother - there's too many of you crying.

Quote:
Originally Posted by Hank Chinaski View Post
for anyone who cares about this country to not boycott 538 makes me ill. 538 is why we have trump. for 538 to report on R's losing stuff it should say, "because we ignored polls and lulled everyone into a false sense of security, space fucks voted third party, and now that an insane person is prez, voters are turning against his party." If it posted that then maybe you can read it, but otherwise, no.
Not just 538 but the whole numerics based reporting industry is deeply at fault, but to a great degree because of the numeric illiteracy of the population. Nate always told us there was a good chance Hilary would lose, we just assumed that because there was a better chance she would win, that would happen.

As someone once given a 1-in-8 chance of living six months (and whose poor wife was once told I had a one-in-four chance of seeing morning), I've come to embrace and appreciate long odds.

And Sebby will tell you he wasn't making a Pascalian wager with his vote, and that he still doesn't regret his vote. Your call as to whether you think he's a moron or a liar, but I think many third party voters fit into the same mindset.

At the end of the day, I'll put Nate after the Foxes of the World and the Sebby's of the world in the blame game. Still in the top three.
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Last edited by Greedy,Greedy,Greedy; 11-08-2017 at 10:58 AM.
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Old 11-08-2017, 11:27 AM   #2740
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Re: Mother, mother, mother - there's too many of you crying.

Quote:
Originally Posted by Hank Chinaski View Post
for anyone who cares about this country to not boycott 538 makes me ill. 538 is why we have trump. for 538 to report on R's losing stuff it should say, "because we ignored polls and lulled everyone into a false sense of security, space fucks voted third party, and now that an insane person is prez, voters are turning against his party." If it posted that then maybe you can read it, but otherwise, no.
Blame the box, not Pandora.
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Old 11-08-2017, 11:57 AM   #2741
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Re: Time for a Crash

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Originally Posted by Greedy,Greedy,Greedy View Post
the strange economics that led us to massively increase associate compensation
You call this board "strange economics?"
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Old 11-08-2017, 12:46 PM   #2742
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Re: Time for a Crash

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Originally Posted by Hank Chinaski View Post
You call this board "strange economics?"
We're the only industry that never burst the y2000 bubble.
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Old 11-08-2017, 01:57 PM   #2743
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Thanks Obama!

FYI: don't go to the Daley Center the same day President Obama has jury duty. Security wouldn't let me use my special lawyer pass that allows me to avoid the hoi polloi line. I HAD TO STAND IN LINE WITH THE UNWASHED!

Thanks Obama!
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Old 11-08-2017, 02:08 PM   #2744
Tyrone Slothrop
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Re: Time for a Crash

Quote:
Originally Posted by ferrets_bueller View Post
Time for a crash indeed.

Observations

1. I am loathe to agree with sebby on almost anything. Yet his obsession about robotics and the long term effect on employment has a good deal of validity. Look at our own profession. There was a time when platoons of associates did document discovery, and the lead associate/fungible work unit became the master of the facts for either negotiations, or, if necessary, trials. The head associate then sat second seat at the trial, making the partner look good.

Those platoons of associates have been replaced by a squad of electronic discovery technocrats who can computerize the documents, sort them chronologically, or by subject matter, or keyword, or by author, in a heartbeat.

This Board has discussed the foregoing point endlessly; I just think it ends poorly for the future workforce, particularly in professions and manufacturing. And what the ‘bots don’t get, cheap overseas labor will...

2. I am taking some S&P 500 index profits off the table today. I believe the run-up is over. Cumulative little signs seem to me to indicate that the long slog out of the Great Recession has peaked. Stupid things, taken in isolation, seem cumulative.

Fast casual food places have reached maximum expansions. Same with Starbucks.

There hasn’t been even a hint of a infrastructure spending bill.

Numbnuts will foul our existing international trade relations to the detriment of the economy.

Many of the jobs that have been created over the last 5 years underemploy the people taking those positions. Better than the dole but insufficient to build a better life.

The pervasive negativity of the majority party and the pervasive ineptitiude of the minority party.

Unsustainable state and municipal debt.

Heroin.

3. Even the good news doesn’t seem to be that good, when examined. My adopted home state of Virginia just took a massive Dump on Trump. Excellent….until you look at the map of the state by county. The high population areas of Northern Virginia, Richmond, Tidewater, and (I think) the area around Virginia Tech at Blacksburg turned out in force and resolutely moved the Virginia chess pieces to the Democrats. But looking at the map shows that the negative Republican campaign still commands huge portions of the state.

I’m a profit-taker today.
I would find the concerns about robots a little more compelling if people proposed that we give up our robot smartphones, robot washing machines, and our robot cars, and go back to non-robot messenger boys, non-robot washer women, and non-robot horses. Yesterday's robots are all awesome -- it's only tomorrow's robots that are the problem.
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Old 11-08-2017, 02:10 PM   #2745
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Re: Thanks Obama!

Quote:
Originally Posted by Did you just call me Coltrane? View Post
FYI: don't go to the Daley Center the same day President Obama has jury duty. Security wouldn't let me use my special lawyer pass that allows me to avoid the hoi polloi line. I HAD TO STAND IN LINE WITH THE UNWASHED!

Thanks Obama!
You're picking a jury. He's in your pool. Do you bounce him?
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