Re: Doesn’t Matter Who Wins the K Race; We’re All the Same
 

The transcript does not have evidence adequate to prove a quid pro quo on its own. I stand by that.

If you are suggesting that I am giving credit to Giuliani, you are mischaracterizing what was written.

ETA: The subtle joke in your first line of that post is pretty solid. Well done.

Re: But whatever you do, Nick, now listen carefully: don't tell the truth
 

It's hard to keep things straight, what with your lawyers telling you what you need to say to stay out of jail, Trump's lawyers telling you what you need to say to keep him out of jail, the political advisors having their say, and then Putin, Erdogan, and Hannity to all answer to. You can't blame them for having trouble keeping their story straight.

Re: But whatever you do, Nick, now listen carefully: don't tell the truth
 

Mulvaney's statement was simply a further flag in the earth that Trump could shoot someone in the middle of 5th Avenue. And, unfortunately, it seems to remain true. Reagan was porcelain compared to Trump"s teflon.

LessinTurkmenabat, Turkmenistan

Re: Doesn’t Matter Who Wins the K Race; We’re All the Same
 

Is that your prediction?

Re: Doesn’t Matter Who Wins the K Race; We’re All the Same
 

He was performing for Trump, not for anyone else, and he knows that Trump loves it when his people say, "You don't like what we're doing? Suck it."

Re: But whatever you do, Nick, now listen carefully: don't tell the truth
 

Surely we have some more high-tech nonstick coating than teflon?

Yup. Sometime the NYT should ask both of those rustbelt-old-white-people-in-diners they interview all the time a few questions like "would you be ok if Trump shot Nancy Pelosi in the West Wing?" or "you don't really care who he screws, do you, you just like seeing him screw people?"

Re: Doesn’t Matter Who Wins the K Race; We’re All the Same
 

Incorrect. I am not mischaracterizing what you are saying about Ukraine or the possibility of a quid pro quo because I did not actually read what you wrote, either last night or at the time you wrote about it. Instead, I vaguely recalled that you had a kind of nothingburger attitude about the whole thing, so I just made up something that I thought would be like something you would say.

I find that it is easier to argue with someone if you do not constrain yourself to arguing against things they actually say. I learned it by watching you!

Re: Doesn’t Matter Who Wins the K Race; We’re All the Same
 

I don't know, because he tried to walk it back later in the day. Hard not to think no one in that building has any clue.

Re: Doesn’t Matter Who Wins the K Race; We’re All the Same
 

He pissed off all the other people in the building who cared about the substance of what he said rather than the performative aspects.

Re: Doesn’t Matter Who Wins the K Race; We’re All the Same
 

Look at the ETA to my post, which ETA was written hours before your post in reply.

Re: Doesn’t Matter Who Wins the K Race; We’re All the Same
 

How many PLFs does it take to win an argument with Sebby? Dunno, but 1 certainly isn't enough!

Re: Doesn’t Matter Who Wins the K Race; We’re All the Same
 

1/2

Re: Doesn’t Matter Who Wins the K Race; We’re All the Same
 

There's no argument between us. It goes like this:

1. I write something;
2. He finds some contradiction or fuckup within it to poke fun at, or criticizes in a sort of angry but also sarcastic and detached way;
3. I write something insulting back;
4. He writes something insulting in reply;
5. Rise/wash/repeat.

These back and forths don't get to substance, which is typically required for an argument. This is my fault as much as his, because I'm not really staking a position. We're like a pair of Lester Bangses arguing politics.

Polls
 

Serious Query:

Who answers polls?

I got a package of docs over the weekend as thick as a legal pleading, asking me to answer a complex poll on govt policies. Who on earth answers that kind of thing?

Same goes for the phone calls. I have an otherwise unused land line into a copier/printer/fax machine in the home office. Occasionally, I'll check the list of calls. I see numbers from research firms. Who takes a poll call? Does somebody say, "Sure, I'd love to take five minutes to answer all of your fucking questions. Shoot!"

If I see a poll on a website, I skip it. If it's required, I assume the site is bogus, filling my computer with invasive cookies, and so I close it.

Does any normal person answer a poll? Where do they find these mythical thousand or so random respondents cited in each of these polls?

Re: Polls
 

If it's a poll on a website, it is worth shit.

I did a fair bit of polling once upon a time, and you'd be amazed how many people will spend a half hour on the phone doing a detailed poll. It gives them a sense they have some input in to the process. The key is to adjust your numbers afterwards because you may get 80% of those over 70 or under 25 willing to answer, but only 40% of those in the 40-60 we're too damn busy paying tuition to talk age group.

Re: Polls
 

If it's an actual poll - and not push polling - I'll answer. Polling influences people and policy, why wouldn't you want to be part of that?

Re: But whatever you do, Nick, now listen carefully: don't tell the truth
 

Pelosi is Hillary Jr. I stepped in a third rail with some ardent "conservatives" recently by suggesting she was a moderate. (She very much is in the current political climate.) Holy fuck. You'd swear I was advocating abortion be legal until two years post-birth, or that Reagan molested a page to death during a black mass on the filled-in pool in the basement of the West Wing.

These same people have no idea who Steny Hoyer is.

Re: But whatever you do, Nick, now listen carefully: don't tell the truth
 

It's odd to me that you tell this story as if it's about Pelosi, rather than about your ardent conservatives.

Re: Doesn’t Matter Who Wins the K Race; We’re All the Same
 

Who does this remind you of?

Biden campaign letter to the NYT, reported here:

From that article:

Read the whole thing, as they say.

Re: Doesn’t Matter Who Wins the K Race; We’re All the Same
 

I liked this quote:

"The allegations about Hunter Biden could, indeed, impact the primary race. This is in part because mainstream media outlets spend time discussing them. When we read political reporting—perhaps when we read much of the news in general—we are looking to an independent variable for announcements about dependent variables. "

This suggests perhaps we should not discuss the fact that a VP's kid received $50k per month for nothing. We should, as many media outlets are engaging in handstands to do right now, preface every discussion of that situation with, "but all evidence of any wrongdoing is completely artificial, totally made up by Trump, and there is nothing at all to see here..."

Yes, there is something to see here. The Trump kids are obviously milking their positions for gain. Ivanka was acquiring Chinese trademarks, god only knows what sort of Saudi loan guaranties Kushner has obtained, and Erik and Don Jr. are surely using the office to gain entree they'd never otherwise enjoy (their father being a joke in serious R/E circles).

But that doesn't mean there's nothing worth discussing about Hunter or Joe's brother, particularly where Hunter has admitted in an interview that he got almost all of his jobs based on his name. Would Chelsea Clinton be raking in the cash she is without famous parents?

Nothing is illegal about nepotism. But it is fair game for political campaigns. Just as Bush's alleged DUI and coke use were used in the 2000 campaign. In fact, I'd say nepotism is even more important than past libertine adventures. Ted Kennedy killed a woman and hot away with it, but that's a one-off if ever there was a one-off. What's more lurid than that is why that family persisted in politics based on... genetics?

Fuck the media for trying to make everything a controversy. But also, fuck the media for trying to squelch discussion of Hunter, Ivanka, Chelsea, or any other mediocrity with a family name cashing out. It's not illegal. Hell, we'd all do it too if our last name was Clinton, Trump, or Biden. But it is worth discussing.

The proper response to accusations against Hunter isn't "How dare you!" It's, "Are you fucking kidding me? Have you looked into Trump's kids' activities?"

Re: But whatever you do, Nick, now listen carefully: don't tell the truth
 

If you took it that way, as opposed to a comment on the lunacy of Pelosi haters, that's on you.

Hillary was a bizarrely loathed creature among Republicans. I'm not sure why, and I'm not sure I'll ever be sure why. I don't think Republicans even understand that hatred. In the current crop of candidates, she'd effectively be a Republican.

Pelosi seems to have had that baton thrust upon her.

I don't get the hatred for her, either, but I think it's got something to do with competence. Pelosi knows how to win.

Which is why she did not want this impeachment.

Re: Doesn’t Matter Who Wins the K Race; We’re All the Same
 

This is the stupidest thing ever- and when I tell intelligent people it is stupid and they don't want to hear, cuz, TRUMP IS BAD, it really discourages me.

The narrative was Trump promised the Chinese something so Ivanka can get her trademarks granted. Of course with time we see that Trump didn't sell out to the Chinese, instead he started a trade war.

But more immediately the whole thing was nonsense. If you give me $500 I'll get you a Chinese trademark. I won't have to promise sweetheart deals from the US- they get granted routinely. If Ivanka ever got the Chinese government to enforce a trademark and seize counterfeit stuff, well that would be a smoking gun, but granting a Trademark? Please.

Re: But whatever you do, Nick, now listen carefully: don't tell the truth
 

Dude, you wrote it that way. Your first sentence was, "Pelosi is Hillary Jr." That is a statement about Pelosi. If you were trying to make a point about the conservatives who think shit like that, you did a lousy job of posting.

Re: Doesn’t Matter Who Wins the K Race; We’re All the Same
 

I'm glad you got something out of it, but the point of the article was about a form of media bias that seems to have eluded you.

And who is trying to "squelch discussion of Hunter, Ivanka, Chelsea, or any other mediocrity with a family name cashing out?" No one but you is even interested in talking about that.

Re: Doesn’t Matter Who Wins the K Race; We’re All the Same
 

OK. I'm wrong about that. Not my practice area. But can we stipulate she's somehow cashing out, because... we know she is. They all are.

Re: Doesn’t Matter Who Wins the K Race; We’re All the Same
 

Almost every single reporter I've heard, almost every story I've read, takes excruciating pains to note that allegations of ill conduct in Hunter's acquisition or retention of a Burisma board seat are unfounded. The words "cleared of wrongdoing" are repeated as if a necessary disclaimer in a commercial for medication.

Re: But whatever you do, Nick, now listen carefully: don't tell the truth
 

I'd say that says more about your low opinion of Hillary than about any low opinion you wrongly think I have of Pelosi. (I actually like Pelosi because, you guessed it --- she's a serious gamer. Lady knows how to win. In this vein, though I detest the man, I also have to hand it to McConnell. He knows how to win. What can I say? Some are starfuckers... I'm a savvy sycophant. [But I really do hate McConnell. He cheats too much.])

Hillary hatred was irrational. When I say Pelosi is Hillary Jr. in this context, I mean people irrationally hate her. The barb in the post is aimed at the haters, not the hated. You need to read with a less paranoid eye.

Re: Doesn’t Matter Who Wins the K Race; We’re All the Same
 

What about Trumps kids plays right into, “both sides,” though.

Re: Doesn’t Matter Who Wins the K Race; We’re All the Same
 

It wasn't directed at you, or just you. Tons of FB peeps saying as much, with no care to hear the truth.

Re: Doesn’t Matter Who Wins the K Race; We’re All the Same
 

The problem is not that they are squelching discussion of anything, the problem is that are repeatedly debunking accusations that he did something wrong when there is absolutely no credible evidence that he did anything wrong. If they repeatedly reported that he has never been charged with molesting children, that would smear him too.

It's amazing to me that someone who is as congenitally skeptical of the ability of law enforcement to wreck people's lives as you are can be so blasé about the way that Republicans have used the government to fuck with Hunter Biden. I don't know much about Hunter Biden. By all accounts that I've heard, he's a creep. But WTF? You had sympathy for Paul Manafort, for Christ's sake, who is much creepier and has done a lot of illegal stuff. How on Earth do you explain thinking that the problem with the media is that it was too hard on Paul Manafort, calling attention to crimes that would have otherwise escaped attention and leading to his punishment for breaking those laws, but you are upset with the media for not spending enough time trashing Hunter Biden, who at least used his connections in what seems to have been a completely legal, if somewhat distasteful way?

Re: Doesn’t Matter Who Wins the K Race; We’re All the Same
 

You’re conflating two distinct concepts, and I think you know it. I have no issue with the press slamming Manafort or using his ties to Ukraine to smear Trump. I had a problem with the use of prosecution and investigation as a tool to not just take him out politically, but also to take him out of society literally. He’d be free and running around in ostrich coats, like so many others who’ve done worse, but for his ego-driven decision to work for Trump.

(But I do feel a good bit of caveat emptor in regard to Manafort. Ego will kill you if you let it. Insecure man kinda getting what insecure people get. Too dumb to just enjoy the money... As if he couldn’t workout those loans.)

I’d be appalled if Trump got Barr to actually prosecute Hunter for something - even if Hunter were guilty of it - just because his dad was Trump’s opponent. That’s disgusting. But when the dirt of getting a $50k a month contract is out there, I have no problem with exploring its ickiness.

You’re mixing prosecutions and media smearing. Apples and Winnebagos.

ETA: I also have a problem with the Durham and Barr investigations of Clapper and Brennan. But then, who started all of this use-investigations-and-prosecutions-as-political-tools? Seems both parties have accepted this practice as a legitimate tool for many years. This is what you get in a shithole country, and this is increasingly a shithole country. And it isn’t because of and certainly didn’t only emerge during the presidency of Trump.

Re: Doesn’t Matter Who Wins the K Race; We’re All the Same
 

When the Crooked Media people mention it as part of the corruption, I say in my head, “Hank says that’s not worth anything.” If they ever ask me, I’ll mention it. No idea how that would happen.

Re: Doesn’t Matter Who Wins the K Race; We’re All the Same
 

I'm not confused about the differences, but Trump -- the man to whom DOJ reports -- asked Ukraine to open formal proceedings to investigate Biden, and invited them to work with the Attorney General. He could have smeared Biden without any of that. He was trying to kickstart a real investigation to make the smear (more) real. Do you not see any difference between that and, say, rage-tweeting?

And suppose it was just smearing. Why are you OK with government officials using their office to smear someone unfairly?

Re: Doesn’t Matter Who Wins the K Race; We’re All the Same
 

Just don’t want you socks to mention it as a thing. It is a species of rejecting nonsense in a world where we are flung a ton of it.

Re: Doesn’t Matter Who Wins the K Race; We’re All the Same
 

Trump's actions in seeking to investigate for political reasons are indefensible. Seeking to imprison or fine Hunter for political gain is an abuse of the prosecutorial power, and if Barr went along with it, I think Barr would be subject to having his license suspended, and probably should have it suspended.*

Smearing is a different thing. I'm not as concerned about that. Were Trump to do it smartly, as many politicians do, by simply having intermediaries hint to foreign govt contacts that they'd really appreciate some dirt on an opponent, and such dirt were provided without an explicit quid pro quo, or any trail of written communication that could connect the request to the politician, it would be icky but fall into the "just politics" bin.

But this is Trump, and he can't do anything in an intelligent or carefully planned manner.

_______
* I think Barr is walking an ethical tightrope in going after Clapper and Brennan. But I'm not as concerned there because I think Brennan and Clapper are also unethical. Durham, Clapper, Barr, and Brennan deserve to drag each other down together. That's a Mexican standoff that ought to be allowed to move to completion.

Re:They even threw in the "Fake News" Trademark
 

But to be fair, the trademarks she got were things like "Louis Vuittan", "Dolce & Gabbana", & "1984". They even threw in "Fake News(tm)".

We're All Russian Assets Now!
 

I love this guy. Fucking love him.

https://www.rollingstone.com/politic...-stein-901593/

The #Resistance has come up with all sorts of words for such fifth-columnists and deviationists: they are “false-balancers” or “false equivalencers,” “neo-Naderites,” “purity-testers,” “both-sidesists,” “whataboutists,” “horseshoe theorists,” “Russia skeptics” or “Russia denialists,” and “anti-anti-Trumpers.” Such heretics are all ultimately seen as being on “team Putin.”

This witch-hunting insanity isn’t just dangerous, it’s a massive breach from reality. Trump’s campaign was a clown show. He had almost no institutional backing. His “ground game” was nonexistent: his “campaign” was a TV program based almost wholly around unscripted media appearances. Trump raised just over half the $1.2 billion Hillary pulled in (making him the first presidential candidate dating back to 1976 to win with a funds deficit). He didn’t prepare a victory speech, for the perfectly logical reason that he never expected to win.

Even if you posit the most elaborate theories of Russian interference (which I don’t, but of course I’m denialist scum), what happened in 2016 was still almost entirely a domestic story, with Trump benefiting from long-developing public rejection of the political establishment.

Rather than confront the devastating absurdity of defeat before an ad-libbing game show host who was seemingly trying to lose – a black comedy that is 100% in America’s rich stupidity tradition – Democrats have gone all-in on this theory of foreign infiltration. House speaker Nancy Pelosi even said as much in a White House meeting, pointing at Trump and proclaiming: “All roads lead to Putin.”

Re: Doesn’t Matter Who Wins the K Race; We’re All the Same
 

Sebby, when you talk about Trump and Russia, you have this weird myopia. You are only interested in Russia's impact on the 2016 election, and you are only interested in saying it's not interesting. IMO, whether the Russia had a material effect on the result of the 2016 election is only a close question because the election was so narrowly decided that a great many things could have been material -- in that sense, the result was overdetermined.

There are a number of questions about Trump and Russia that are more interesting to me, that you just ignore, including:

- How much has Trump's business depending on Russian money?
- How much money laundering has Trump's business been doing for Russians?
- Why was Russia trying to help Trump during the 2016 election?
- Why has Trump been so incredibly solicitous of Putin and Russia since getting elected President? (Also true of a small number of people close to him, such as Jarod Kushner and Michael Flynn.)

Re: Doesn’t Matter Who Wins the K Race; We’re All the Same
 

When did I say it's not interesting? It's enormously interesting. Because, as you suggest, Russian marketing may have been one of a number of small factors that gifted Trump a thin margin of voters that put him over the top.

But this requires us to examine the rest of why Trump got elected - the overwhelming majority of the reasons Trump was elected.

Those - which number many multiples of the impact of Russian marketing - lie at the feet of the policies favored by the people who are trying to focus exclusively on Russia as the cause of his election.

It's simple deflection - a refusal to take responsibility, a scapegoat on which people can blame his election without having to examine the fact that We Own His Election at 50X the Level any Russians Do.

And when I say "We," I mean the Left, the Right, the Middle -- everybody who's watched the trends emerging over the past few decades that have created a really angry 1/2 of the country that wants to burn things down, but figured, "They'll never get traction... Never acquire power."

Well, they did. And now, rather than reflect on how we all contributed to this, a huge portion of our country has chosen to embrace a bullshit narrative that this was all Russian meddling.*

There was Russian meddling. And maybe that was the last yard Trump needed to win in 2016. We can discuss that. But how about we first discuss what drove him the other 80 or so yards down the field? How about instead of trying to deflect, we examine what our domestic policies did to cause his election. Then, after we examine all of that - which is voluminous - we can spend a bit of time analyzing the minimal portion attributable to Putin.

______
* I think there's an unsaid strategy among non-populists that the best way to deal with populists is by ignoring their demands, discrediting them as an aberration, and using flawed and false narratives to do so if necessary. This has never worked in history. In fact, it's counterproductive, causing the anger that led to the populism to increase. Flagging the Big Lies, the Establishment Narratives, is what drives populism. The forces aligned against populism have worked their ass off to drive anti-populist narratives since 2016. Trump has frustrated it all with two words: Fake News.

Re: Doesn’t Matter Who Wins the K Race; We’re All the Same
 

The one thing I’ve seen Russian meddling proven to have done is to convince solid D votes that 3rd party is the only answer. I’ve proven with math how important those votes were.