| sebastian_dangerfield |
06-14-2012 12:47 PM |
Re: Pepper sprayed for public safety.
Quote:
Originally Posted by Adder
(Post 469588)
And you think France will do this restructuring by converting itself away from one of the lowest-cost and highest-quality health care systems in the developed world (much cheaper than the one we've got)?
By the way, if you are right, it will only be because the political failings of the EU, mixed with a healthy does of Austerian stupidity, will keep the ECB from doing what needs to be done. (Although it appears you've edited to delete the bit I'm responding to now).
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1. Our HC system will not persist as is. It can't. Nor will it be a single payer system. Politically, socially, economically, this is impossible. Arguing "We could be like France" is a version of the old, "We could be like Sweden" argument serious people respond to with chuckles. We're bigger, we're more diverse, and the actors in our system have entirely different incentives that have been in place for over a century (during which time France, and the rest of Europe, has gone through serious societal upheaval attendant to wars, surrender, etc.).
2. You're not seeing what's actually going on in Europe. It isn't austerity vs. expansion of central bank balance sheets, or development of eurobonds. It's recognition that even if the ECB prints like mad, it'll never be enough. The debt overhang, private and public, is simply too enormous to unwind within the timetable needed to create sustainable growth.
It's just that simple: You can't print enough fast enough to clear the debt from the balance sheets. Watch Spain in the next 24 months. Their mortgage rules are draconian. People can't run away from that debt, and they have a housing bubble like ours. Their only way out of that is going to be principal write downs - huge ones. That's a crack in the dike I think may lead to the ultimate cure, which is not going to be US/Euro reflation via CB lending, but radical debt repudiation and write down. Eventually, across the developed world, we are going to have to decide: Do we prop investors endlessly?, or Do we put some cash back in the hands of consumers/workers?
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