Re: I used to be disgusted, and now I try to be amused.
 

A long time back in this election I said my biggest worry was where the white women were at.

It's a big, big worry. They're in a better place than the white male demographic, but still not a good place.

Re: I used to be disgusted, and now I try to be amused.
 

He may have had the worst night of anyone. Why would I ever visit his site again?

TM

Re: I used to be disgusted, and now I try to be amused.
 

I just talked to a co-worker, a college-educated white woman and a friend, who explained that she couldn't vote for Hillary because she didn't dump Bill after he humiliated her. World leaders wouldn't respect her. What about Trump, I said, he's cheated on every wife and treats women like shit. True, she said, but he's the one doing the cheating, and she wouldn't vote for Melania.

I don't want to argue about what misogyny means, but even if 45% of college-educated white women voted for Trump, that hardly means there isn't a lot of misogyny out there.

Re: I used to be disgusted, and now I try to be amused.
 

I wasn't paying close attention, but I thought he did better than most.

Good news, Sebby
 

Trump is starting to load up on those smart people you said he'd pick for his cabinet. Let's start with a healthy dose of climate change skepticism for the EPA. Next we'll move to Giuliani as FBI Director and Christie as AG. What should we give Newt? Whatever he wants, I'm sure.

https://www.scientificamerican.com/a...pa-transition/

TM

Re: I used to be disgusted, and now I try to be amused.
 

Uh...not when it came to the Presidency. Up, down, he's winning, she's winning, no he's winning. Granted, I don't think a poll exists off of which he builds his model that was correct, but if that's the case, he's as useless as a Fox flash poll.

TM

Re: I used to be disgusted, and now I try to be amused.
 

The polls were wrong, so his model based on polls was wrong. But he had much higher chances of Trump winning, because (he said) the polls could be wrong in a systemic way. And he was right. Just about everyone else said Trump was less likely to win.

Re: I used to be disgusted, and now I try to be amused.
 

Am I on ignore? I've been posting realclearpolitics for weeks saying it was a toss up, and wondering how 538 could have the odds it was saying.


Maybe each poll was wrong but the average was spot on.

Re: I used to be disgusted, and now I try to be amused.
 

In hindsight, there's absolutely no way to tell whether a 50-50 or 67-33 prediction was more accurate. To me, those numbers are just indicators.

Re: I used to be disgusted, and now I try to be amused.
 

My telling Sebby Pa was a toss up and Hil was one state away from losing was the same as 538 saying "Hil 70%?"

Okay.

RCP was spot on.

Re: I used to be disgusted, and now I try to be amused.
 

???

I'm not sure why what you're saying doesn't mean he's useless to me. I already said a model built off of faulty polling is useless. What possible difference does it make that he said she had a 72% chance of winning going into Tuesday than if some other poll watcher said she had a 80% chance? Both are useless.

TM

Re: I used to be disgusted, and now I try to be amused.
 

Where is ty@50 when we need him?

Re: I used to be disgusted, and now I try to be amused.
 

You said he had the worst night of anyone. He had a better night than just about anyone else who was polling or aggregating polls. Hank says RCP did even better, though.

Re: I used to be disgusted, and now I try to be amused.
 

I think Florida's numbers compared to other states are a pretty good illustration that there were large generational divides among white women's votes. I haven't seen a full breakdown and frankly I can't devote any more time today to election post-mortem, but based on numbers coming in last night from Florida, the Boomer college-educated women did not come out for Hillary. I don't know for sure why, but I bet at least some of it comes back to the 1990's (and, even if some of you don't believe in it, woman-on-woman sexism, which has always been a thing).

The big blue map that's been making the rounds with totals from younger voters does give me some hope for the future. And right now that's the best thing I can say*, because otherwise I'm pretty despondent.

* Well, also, selfishly I'm saying "Thank God I live in a fiercely blue city in a fiercely blue state." I'm worried about so many people who are not so fortunate.

Re: I used to be disgusted, and now I try to be amused.
 

My first (and probably only) post on this board.

This morning my mother, a lifelong Republican, texted me "I feel like somebody just threw up on me and I can't wash it off for 4 years."

I can't express my feelings any better than that.