Originally Posted by ThurgreedMarshall (Post 521200)

I am absolutely floored by this analysis.

If your exposure to the musician is based on watching a movie in which he plays a supporting character, you will necessarily have a limited view of who the fuck he is. Am I in backwards land? Your argument is that the personality traits they chose to show of the supporting character in order to make a movie about his driver are insufficient? I am honestly stumped at why you are taking the movie you saw and saying that they couldn't have made the movie from another perspective based on the evidence you saw in the movie in which they relegated the musician to a supporting role. What?

Again. What? They aren't explained because he's not the focus of the movie. Do you think they may have explained these things--given some backstory--if he were?

I suppose that could be. He also could have been an amazingly interesting person whose idiosyncrasies were based in plot points and character development. What???

This is the strangest conversation I've ever witnessed.

No. The back story is there because the white guy is the lead. What the fuck?

That's quite the read considering his family has been vocal about how inaccurate the film is. Maybe he had a family later in life? Maybe he has no apparent family because the focus of the film is someone else and those characters were eliminated.

You have taken this movie and turned all the choices they have made based on who the lead is into evidence of why they didn't make the movie about someone else. You are not making any sense.

TM

Originally Posted by Icky Thump (Post 521308)

Ali was good playing a deep character. But I wasn’t happy with the absolute spoof of Italians. Still, Hollywood has no problem making complete and total characteratures out of an entire nationality.

Originally Posted by sebastian_dangerfield (Post 521311)

Re Manafort, am I missing a piece or is it now possible that Trump can pardon Manafort on upcoming Berman sentence and keep Ellis sentence in place, thus blunting all political outcry about a pardon of Manafort?

“I only pardoned Paul in one case. Just one. I made him do time. Very nasty time. Very, very nasty.”

Originally Posted by Tyrone Slothrop (Post 521312)

Why would Trump pardon Manafort now?

Originally Posted by sebastian_dangerfield (Post 521314)

Trump could leave him to rot for the entire sentence Berman gives him. But then Manafort would have nothing left to lose and start singing.

There's no way Manafort acted as brazenly as he did without some assurance from Trump's people that he'd be pardoned. If Trump screws him and he winds up doing the 10 years Berman is likely to give him, he's lost everything and Trump has no leverage over him.

Whatever the outcome, Manafort does the remainder of the Ellis sentence. The only pardon I see coming her is as to Berman's sentence. This would also send a message to Stone, who is being tried by Berman.

Originally Posted by ferrets_bueller (Post 521315)

The NY Times just published a book review on The Uninhabitable Earth, which is apparently an annotate version of the single most frequently downloaded story in the history of New York Magazine.


Agree with me or not on any issue I've ever posted here, I don't think anyone can accuse me of hyperbole or fear mongering.



The 7,000 word story is positively terrifying.



It is well written, and posits that my 5 and 2 year old granddaughters will be part of a mass extinction event. So much for clean beautiful Kentucky coal.


http://nymag.com/intelligencer/2017/...or-humans.html


Some of the science indicates that we're already too late to change the outcome. It is a global version of the "tragedy of the commons." I feel helpless in the face of the size of the problem. Damn.

Originally Posted by sebastian_dangerfield (Post 521314)

Trump could leave him to rot for the entire sentence Berman gives him. But then Manafort would have nothing left to lose and start singing.

There's no way Manafort acted as brazenly as he did without some assurance from Trump's people that he'd be pardoned. If Trump screws him and he winds up doing the 10 years Berman is likely to give him, he's lost everything and Trump has no leverage over him.

Whatever the outcome, Manafort does the remainder of the Ellis sentence. The only pardon I see coming her is as to Berman's sentence. This would also send a message to Stone, who is being tried by Berman.

Originally Posted by Adder (Post 521318)

The thing I don't know if whether the court/prosecutor can get his sentence reduced for singing after he's sentenced, but obviously the best time for him to fully cooperate is before that.

Originally Posted by Tyrone Slothrop (Post 521316)

Manafort probably has no leverage in that way anymore because he "cooperated" already with Mueller and Mueller's team decided he was lying. Mueller certainly can't use him as a witness going forward. So Manafort is only useful to Mueller if he is still sitting on something concrete that Mueller can use to build a case. But he's had the chance to cooperate, so he has used up his chances to turn. He has no incentive to turn now because Mueller can't do anything more for him. He has been sentenced in Virginia and the judge in DC found that he lied to Mueller when he "cooperated" before.

I also think your partial pardon idea is nuts. Trump is not about nuance here. If he pardons Manafort it is either (a) to protect himself from something Manafort can do to him, or (b) to send a message to others. Per the above, I don't see (a). If (b), it will be a full pardon.

Originally Posted by ferrets_bueller (Post 521315)

The NY Times just published a book review on The Uninhabitable Earth, which is apparently an annotate version of the single most frequently downloaded story in the history of New York Magazine.


Agree with me or not on any issue I've ever posted here, I don't think anyone can accuse me of hyperbole or fear mongering.



The 7,000 word story is positively terrifying.



It is well written, and posits that my 5 and 2 year old granddaughters will be part of a mass extinction event. So much for clean beautiful Kentucky coal.


http://nymag.com/intelligencer/2017/...or-humans.html


Some of the science indicates that we're already too late to change the outcome. It is a global version of the "tragedy of the commons." I feel helpless in the face of the size of the problem. Damn.

Originally Posted by Tyrone Slothrop (Post 521319)

"was" before that

Originally Posted by sebastian_dangerfield (Post 521320)

Prosecutor at yesterday’s sentencing stated Manafort deserved no credit because his “cooperation” gave them nothing they didn’t already know.

If Trump wins in 2020, he can’t fully pardon Manafort. Too controversial. Manafort would have to serve another 4 years of what Berman gives him. But if Trump only pardons Manafort as to Bergman sentence, Manafort will be out in 2021.

Trump can get around controversy by saying Manafort deserves time for tax fraud, but Berman’s sentence in collusion case was part of political witch hunt.

If Trump loses in 2020, everyone gets full pardons.

Originally Posted by sebastian_dangerfield (Post 521322)

Manafort has no hope of reduction from DOJ. His leverage on Trump is telling facts that put Trump and family in legal jeopardy in and out of office. This is his pardon insurance. He’s bet everything on Trump honoring a clear but never explicit deal out of fear of what Manafort will do if Trump does not honor the deal.

Manafort also has to worry about the Russians. That’s another explanation for his behavior.

I think Manafort is now totally prepared to do Ellis’s sentence and not Berman’s. Hence, his lawyer’s strange comment about lack of collusion after yesterday’s hearing. Twitter and the media are telecasting messages between Trump and Manafort. You’re watching the negotiation/discussions live.

Originally Posted by Tyrone Slothrop (Post 521323)

My original question to you was, why would Trump pardon Manafort now, and you are not any closer to having a good answer to that. If Trump makes it to 2020, why on Earth would he pardon Manafort? If he goes to prison and doesn't cause more trouble, why invite the New York AG's office to prosecute him, and drag things up again, which would follow a pardon like day follows night. Trump has no loyalty to anyone except his own family, so you can rule that out.

Originally Posted by Tyrone Slothrop (Post 521324)

If it's a discussion, what's Trump saying? Agree that Manafort's lawyer would love to get a pardon, and since Mueller has had him nailed seven ways to Sunday that has pretty much been his only hope. But my question was why Trump would want to, and the idea that Manafort is sitting on something that could damage Trump looks less and less likely.

Originally Posted by ferrets_bueller (Post 521315)

The NY Times just published a book review on The Uninhabitable Earth, which is apparently an annotate version of the single most frequently downloaded story in the history of New York Magazine.


Agree with me or not on any issue I've ever posted here, I don't think anyone can accuse me of hyperbole or fear mongering.



The 7,000 word story is positively terrifying.



It is well written, and posits that my 5 and 2 year old granddaughters will be part of a mass extinction event. So much for clean beautiful Kentucky coal.


http://nymag.com/intelligencer/2017/...or-humans.html


Some of the science indicates that we're already too late to change the outcome. It is a global version of the "tragedy of the commons." I feel helpless in the face of the size of the problem. Damn.

Originally Posted by sebastian_dangerfield (Post 521325)

Because he has to.

Originally Posted by sebastian_dangerfield (Post 521326)

Because Manafort can offer testimony putting Trump and his kids in further legal jeopardy.

Why would Manafort lie to SC? He’s keeping something as insurance. He couldn’t cough it up to SC because then he’d blow all leverage with Trump. So he made shit up to look like he was giving new info and SC saw through it.

Manafort is 69. He’s calculated Trump is his only hope. Nothing SC could for him would get him out soon enough.

And as to what he has, this man was close to Putin’s people. He’s probably got shit on Trump about which Cohen could only dream.

Originally Posted by Replaced_Texan (Post 521317)

This subject came up last night in a discussion with my husband about fertility options going forward. I think it has to be a consideration for anyone considering having kids.

Originally Posted by LessinSF (Post 521330)

And y'all have called me a troll for advocating the need for a human kill off.

Originally Posted by sebastian_dangerfield (Post 521320)

If Trump wins in 2020, he can’t fully pardon Manafort. Too controversial.

Originally Posted by Tyrone Slothrop (Post 521324)

the idea that Manafort is sitting on something that could damage Trump looks less and less likely.

Originally Posted by Adder (Post 521332)

Why would a re-elected Trump care about controversy?

Originally Posted by Adder (Post 521332)

Why would a re-elected Trump care about controversy?

Originally Posted by Adder (Post 521333)

You think so? I guess I inferred from the lack of cooperation that there's more he could offer but isn't.

Originally Posted by sebastian_dangerfield (Post 521335)

Pardoning Manafort entirely is like Clinton pardoning Marc Rich.

Originally Posted by Adder (Post 521337)

Aside from there being nothing in it for him, and assuming there are Russians involved, other downsides beyond prosecution.

Originally Posted by Hank Chinaski (Post 521338)

Damn. I never even thought of that shit. These guys are going to buy it in prison.

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=udoYs01WKQc

Originally Posted by sebastian_dangerfield (Post 521340)

He might face a Russian hit regardless of being a stand-up guy. Why take a chance? (Skip to 1:05): https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=YhUZaAYsaGU

Originally Posted by sebastian_dangerfield (Post 521335)

Pardoning Manafort entirely is like Clinton pardoning Marc Rich. Trump can't do that until after 2022 midterms. He can do a pardon on the Berman Jackson sentence however, with no political fallout.

Originally Posted by ThurgreedMarshall (Post 521342)

Political fallout? What political fallout? Who the fuck is going to jump off of Trump's bandwagon that's still on it at this point? He enjoys an 80%+ approval rating among Republicans. Every week there is a new low point for him. He's running a record fucking trade deficit after enacting the most boneheaded tariff policy ever. He's fucked our allies and destroyed our relationships with them. Everyone connected to him is either in jail, under indictment, or implicated in numerous crimes. He's made the rich richer by exploding the deficit and shit all over everyone else, including those in actual need of emergency assistance. He's blatantly racist in words and policy. He's a crude, ignorant clown who proves it every day. He is loyal to absolutely no one and has attempted to destroy any faith in every institution in this country.

You think he's worried about political fallout from a pardon? You must be crazy. The only thing this guy is afraid of is the tax evasion and money laundering he's been doing for decades being made public--oh, and the pee tape and whatever else Putin has on him.

TM

Originally Posted by sebastian_dangerfield (Post 521343)

He won by the thinnest of margins. While everything you've said certainly does indicate he doesn't give a fuck, the math still dictates that he cannot afford to lose any voters in PA, MI, WI. Pardoning a tax cheat who fancied $15k ostrich jackets won't play well in the Rust Belt. If he did that and I were a D strategist, I'd kill him with commercials in those states highlighting Manafort's opulent lifestyle. I think Trump is smart enough to understand that risk.

Originally Posted by ThurgreedMarshall (Post 521344)

No. He is absolutely not. There is no evidence of him being smart enough to understand anything. He lacks the capacity to see more than one move. It's one of three things: straight money-grab, pure ego-driven reaction, or straight jail avoidance. He lets that muppet Miller and Pence design his policy, which is why you think he cares about the base. He doesn't. They do. He only cares about the people who can destroy him (Putin) and whoever is in the room who adulates him. Once they're no longer in the room, they do. not. exist.

So don't mistake his wall promises or anything else for him trying to cater to his base. He's only pushing for it because his ego was bruised by those he respects (Hannity and Coulter).

He is completely empty. There's nothing there besides hate, greed, and narcissism.

TM

Originally Posted by sebastian_dangerfield (Post 521345)

The voters of WI, MI, and PA can destroy him.

Originally Posted by sebastian_dangerfield (Post 521345)

ETA: I think if he loses in 2020, which I think is a solid if not strong possibility, the investigations will peter out, as the Democrats and republicans will do a kumbaya moment and agree it's better to simply forget him forever than bother prosecuting him. But it's going to be a massive fucking headache for him, because he'll always be looking over his shoulder, ticking off the days of statutes of limitation. He stuck his foot in a massive pile of shit by winning the election and I suspect he believes the only way out of it is to win in 2020 and do another four years. (in this regard, the Presidency is a form of cosmic justice visiting Donald Trump. He's stuck with a horrible gig that's utterly mangled his world at the age of 73, and it's his own damn fault he's there.)

Originally Posted by ThurgreedMarshall (Post 521346)

I disagree. I think he's going down, especially if he loses. No need to impeach. Simply let the justice department do its thing. If the Democrats are going to ignore real (and serious) crimes in order to "heal," I'll lose my fucking mind.

Originally Posted by ThurgreedMarshall (Post 521346)

I disagree. I think he's going down, especially if he loses. No need to impeach. Simply let the justice department do its thing. If the Democrats are going to ignore real (and serious) crimes in order to "heal," I'll lose my fucking mind.