Originally Posted by sebastian_dangerfield (Post 471287)

YMMV. I hear anger about Romney. But I hear more of this: "Romney's just doing what rich guys do. And there aren't so many of them, relatively speaking. Forty percent of this country doesn't pay income tax. Where's the media on that?"

(Admittedly, PA is a huge Fox News fan base.)

Originally Posted by sebastian_dangerfield (Post 471290)

Obama isn't doing much for me, and could make things worse in a second term where he doesn't have to be centrist, so why not take vote for Mitt?

Originally Posted by Adder (Post 471292)

Does your head ever explode over the tension between your last two sentences?

I'm not sure there is any single fact about the workings of our tax code that is better known or more covered in the media than the fact that the 40% of Americans that are retired and of modest means, working poor, unemployed or rich enough to afford fancy tax avoidance strategies (is Romney one of them?) don't pay income taxes.

Originally Posted by Adder (Post 471293)

What's the scenario that leads to a second term in which Obama doesn't need to be centrist? Leaving aside that fact that everything about Obama demonstrates that he is, personally, a centrist, do you think there's some chance that the Dems take both houses of Congress? Maybe you're expecting some sort of October flue virus that only kills Rs?

Originally Posted by sebastian_dangerfield (Post 471290)

The business community's investment creates jobs. I'm not sucking up to anyone. I'm hoping more capital will get brought back here.

Around here, the hospitals, insurers, and pharmaceuticals probably do like Obama. But outside those areas, and particularly among small businesses, he is strongly disliked. True or not, the perception is that with him out of office, we may see more domestic investment by businesses. Banks may be let off the regulatory hook a bit and lend more, and we might see consumption return for a time (I think we're fucked long term no matter who we elect, but that's another issue).

From my view, things can't get any more difficult for mid to small businesses (my wife and I both have small businesses, and I service many small business owners and clientele). Will Romney effectively assuage the malaise? I don't know. But he can't make things worse, Obama isn't doing much for me, and could make things worse in a second term where he doesn't have to be centrist, so why not take vote for Mitt?

Read about who's responsible for all the trading in the market these days. Read about the over hundred billion yanked from the market by investors in the just the last year. A lunatic bull run fueled exclusively by quant algorithms is nothing to crow about. And Obama isn't even really responsible for that. The volatility that keeps funds churning that market for short term gains accrues in large part from uncertainty created in significant part by the health care bill.

Originally Posted by Greedy,Greedy,Greedy (Post 471303)

For us the healthcare community includes a massive number of startups and small businesses, and the funds available to do things like develop diagnostic systems, track the effectiveness of care, or do basic research on new cancer drugs have fueled a boom among those small companies. No malaise at all. Software - better off. Biotech - better off. Manufacturing - no one can save it, it's going away. Retail - it's a leach on the others, when they're better off, it is. Of course, anyone who goes retail with just bricks and mortar these days is a fool.

Your guys problem may not be the President, it may be the businesses they're focusing on. Tell them to get into software, for example, where Massachusetts is currently constrained in growth primarilly by a lack of qualified candidates to hire (thus the need for H1-Bs - if we can't bring the Indians here, we'll send the work over there). Whatever they do, though, don't let them build small businesses in law - that's a fools errand, any resulting malaise is deserved.

Originally Posted by Adder (Post 471293)

What's the scenario that leads to a second term in which Obama doesn't need to be centrist? Leaving aside that fact that everything about Obama demonstrates that he is, personally, a centrist, do you think there's some chance that the Dems take both houses of Congress? Maybe you're expecting some sort of October flu virus that only kills Rs?

Originally Posted by Sidd Finch (Post 471266)

Is it possible that the American people are un-dumb enough to realize that no President could have come into the mess that was there in January 2009, followed by the seriies of later messes that had nothing to do with US policy, and hoped to get us anywhere near a full recovery in 4 years?

Originally Posted by Not Bob (Post 471257)

Eisenhower. To quote Arthur Fonzarelli, "I like Ike. My bike likes Ike."

Of course the Manchurean President is in trouble - no president in the modern era has been re-elected with 8% unemployment since FDR, and BHO ain't no FDR. But Governor Romney hasn't seemed able to keep the narrative on the dismal numbers. If the race was today, he'd lose a squeaker in the popular vote and a bit more definitively in the Electoral College. That's why I said that if the country is still talking about anything other than 8% unemployment in mid-October, the Kenyan could install a halal deli in the Lincoln Bedroom and still win.

Originally Posted by sebastian_dangerfield (Post 471360)

I'm a huge believer in letting the market wipe out obsolete businesses. But I'm not talking about solely obsolete businesses, or those with fading margins, like law.

What do the guys who aren't in software, or profit from HC reform, do?

Originally Posted by sebastian_dangerfield (Post 471361)

It's the simplest logic. There's less risk with Romney, and the possibility of gain. Even if the risk with Obama appears small, why take it if one doesn't have to? If there's no chance of gain with him, shown the lack of real recovery in the past four years (not his fault substantially, but that's immaterial), and you know Romney provides at least the hope of some real recovery, why not pick Door Number Two?

Originally Posted by sebastian_dangerfield (Post 471360)

I'm a huge believer in letting the market wipe out obsolete businesses. But I'm not talking about solely obsolete businesses, or those with fading margins, like law.

What do the guys who aren't in software, or profit from HC reform, do?

Originally Posted by Adder (Post 471365)

The risk with Romney is further blowing the hell about of the budget.

Originally Posted by Tyrone Slothrop (Post 471369)

Letting Wall Street regulate itself has only failed miserably once in the last five years -- why not give it another shot?

And the Republican foreign policy establishment -- it's not like they're going to start a war with Iran or something, right?

Originally Posted by Adder (Post 471371)

The Tea Partiers will whine, but there will be little they can do when the establishment Rs are willing to cut a deal with the Dems....