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Adder 12-10-2008 05:57 PM

Re: The Plot Thickens
 
Quote:

Originally Posted by Mmmm, Burger (C.J.) (Post 373738)
A positive return would become even more positive with deflation.

Well, yeah, but the question was why lend it to the government for no return.

My mostly sarcastic response doesn't answer that, of course, because no return does not protect against deflation.

Quote:

If you have cash to park, given the instability of every other place to put it, including a mattress, it seems like the lowest-transaction-cost way to keep cash completely safe.
Actually the mattress is lower transaction cost, and potentially lower risk. I wonder what the odds of burglary and theft are compared to the odds of a default by the federal government. I guess the chances of the latter are pretty low if people are willing to lend to it for free, but while government bonds are often used as a proxy for riskless investment, they are nonetheless not risk free.

Mmmm, Burger (C.J.) 12-10-2008 06:21 PM

Re: The Plot Thickens
 
Quote:

Originally Posted by Adder (Post 373739)

Actually the mattress is lower transaction cost, and potentially lower risk. I wonder what the odds of burglary and theft are compared to the odds of a default by the federal government. I guess the chances of the latter are pretty low if people are willing to lend to it for free, but while government bonds are often used as a proxy for riskless investment, they are nonetheless not risk free.

When was the last time the U.S. government defaulted? When was the last house fire?

But let's not be silly. You'd need an awful lot of mattresses to store all of Apple's cash. If it's just me, FDIC insurance is essentially as good as a 0% t-bill, since if the government defaults on that insurance, it's defaulting on pretty much everything.

Adder 12-10-2008 06:26 PM

Re: The Plot Thickens
 
Quote:

Originally Posted by Mmmm, Burger (C.J.) (Post 373742)
When was the last time the U.S. government defaulted? When was the last house fire?

But let's not be silly. You'd need an awful lot of mattresses to store all of Apple's cash. If it's just me, FDIC insurance is essentially as good as a 0% t-bill, since if the government defaults on that insurance, it's defaulting on pretty much everything.

Yeah.. I'm just saying that default isn't an impossibility.

Cletus Miller 12-10-2008 06:27 PM

Re: The Plot Thickens
 
Quote:

Originally Posted by Mmmm, Burger (C.J.) (Post 373742)
FDIC insurance is essentially as good as a 0% t-bill, since if the government defaults on that insurance, it's defaulting on pretty much everything.

Including those federal reserve notes in Adder's mattress. If the USA defaults on FDIC insurance, FNMA/FHMLC obligations or T-Bills/-Notes, basically nothing dollar denominated will be worth shit.

Mmmm, Burger (C.J.) 12-10-2008 06:37 PM

Re: The Plot Thickens
 
Quote:

Originally Posted by Cletus Miller (Post 373744)
Including those federal reserve notes in Adder's mattress. If the USA defaults on FDIC insurance, FNMA/FHMLC obligations or T-Bills/-Notes, basically nothing dollar denominated will be worth shit.

I've got that covered, although the bed's a little lumpy.

http://farm3.static.flickr.com/2413/...bd5792.jpg?v=0

Hank Chinaski 12-10-2008 06:46 PM

Re: The Plot Thickens
 
Quote:

Originally Posted by Adder (Post 373743)
Yeah.. I'm just saying that default isn't an impossibility.

when I was at MSU I worked in a dorm cleaning up after you rich guys. I took my check to the party store to cash. The owner looked at it, a MSU check, here he was smack in the middle of East Lansing, and he's like "I dunno, it might be bad."

i go, "man you cash it and I'll buy booze from you."

he's like "well, if the check bounces that does me no good."

i goes "if MSU checks start bouncing, what's the point of owning a store in East Lansing."

think about it,

Cletus Miller 12-10-2008 06:48 PM

Re: The Plot Thickens
 
Quote:

Originally Posted by Hank Chinaski (Post 373746)
when I was at MSU I worked in a dorm cleaning up after you rich guys. I took my check to the party store to cash. The owner looked at it, a MSU check, here he was smack in the middle of East Lansing, and he's like "I dunno, it might be bad."

i go, "man you cash it and I'll buy booze from you."

he's like "well, if the check bounces that does me no good."

i goes "if MSU checks start bouncing, what's the point of owning a store in East Lansing."

think about it,

Wait, Harvard has a dorm called "MSU" and it's located in East Lansing?

Hank Chinaski 12-10-2008 06:52 PM

Re: The Plot Thickens
 
Quote:

Originally Posted by Cletus Miller (Post 373748)
Wait, Harvard has a dorm called "MSU" and it's located in East Lansing?

dual majors. M/W/F classes, T/Th classes. Harvard didn't have a degree program in dairy cattle animal husbandry and i needed to have a fall back if the engineering/lawyer thing didn't work out.

Cletus Miller 12-10-2008 06:57 PM

Re: The Plot Thickens
 
Quote:

Originally Posted by Hank Chinaski (Post 373749)
dual majors. M/W/F classes, T/Th classes. Harvard didn't have a degree program in dairy cattle animal husbandry and i needed to have a fall back if the engineering/lawyer thing didn't work out.

You borrow GM's private jet, or Ford's?

Hank Chinaski 12-10-2008 06:58 PM

Re: The Plot Thickens
 
Quote:

Originally Posted by Cletus Miller (Post 373750)
You borrow GM's private jet, or Ford's?

translation: I am not Hank's facebook friend.

Greedy,Greedy,Greedy 12-10-2008 07:00 PM

Re: The Plot Thickens
 
Quote:

Originally Posted by LessinSF (Post 373726)
On an mostly unrelated note, who buys 3-mos. T-Bills at a 0% interest rate? I know companies can't keep the money under a mattress, but is there nothing with an acceptable risk and a rate of return?

No.

If a company is sitting on $X million to execute on its business, and gets the word from its board that it should invest solely for capital preservation, it buys T-bills. If they have multinational operations, they buy some t-bills in other currencies based on where they plan to spend money. But, if the sole goal is capital preservation, there isn't any other option.

Greedy,Greedy,Greedy 12-10-2008 07:03 PM

Re: The Plot Thickens
 
Quote:

Originally Posted by Mmmm, Burger (C.J.) (Post 373742)
When was the last time the U.S. government defaulted? When was the last house fire?

But let's not be silly. You'd need an awful lot of mattresses to store all of Apple's cash. If it's just me, FDIC insurance is essentially as good as a 0% t-bill, since if the government defaults on that insurance, it's defaulting on pretty much everything.

FDIC is a separate insurance fund. It goes belly up before T-bills default.

The rest of the country might not be far behind if the FDIC goes bust, but there are several workout scenarios that would have the FDIC insolvent while the rest of the government stays solvent.

LessinSF 12-10-2008 07:14 PM

Re: The Plot Thickens
 
Quote:

Originally Posted by Greedy,Greedy,Greedy (Post 373752)
No.

If a company is sitting on $X million to execute on its business, and gets the word from its board that it should invest solely for capital preservation, it buys T-bills. If they have multinational operations, they buy some t-bills in other currencies based on where they plan to spend money. But, if the sole goal is capital preservation, there isn't any other option.

Well, at least the U.S. government's cost to borrow is decreasing (as it prints money by the cubic kilometer). Presumably, it is retiring the old 30-year notes in favor of as many 10-years at these interest rates as it can.

sebastian_dangerfield 12-10-2008 07:17 PM

Re: Are you rich?
 
Quote:

Originally Posted by Sidd Finch (Post 373692)
Some people have said that investing in productivity enhancing technology is an option. But that's just crazy-talk.

Uh, they kind of go hand in hand? Technology investments usually highlight redundancies, and the fact that if you give him a Blackberry, laptop, etc... Joe Worker can get a bunch more shit done.

sebastian_dangerfield 12-10-2008 07:19 PM

Re: Are you rich?
 
Quote:

Originally Posted by ThurgreedMarshall (Post 373673)
I think you're only talking about big state schools.

TM

So was I.


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