Originally Posted by Atticus Grinch (Post 481006)

This is the question I'm trying to get at and that everybody but you ducked — will L look like F? Will G look like M?

I suspect that the age of first marriage will prove to be positively correlated with the number of men in a two-person commitment, and negatively correlated with the number of women. I'm guessing L may be as much as 2 years lower than F, and G will be as many as 6 years higher than M because there is no fertility clock.

I also wonder if the delta of age between marriage partners will be greater in FF and MM marriages, or smaller. I don't have a prediction on that, but it will be interesting to see whether same-sex marriages prove to be sociologically different from MF marriages.

Originally Posted by Sidd Finch (Post 481004)

I think that, even after the "pent-up demand" thing fades and the situation normalizes, L and G will still be a bit higher than M and F. Generally, I think it still takes some time before people realize or acknowledge or accept that they are gay, and then they have to adjust to that before they end up wanting to marry.

Originally Posted by Sidd Finch (Post 481004)

I think that, even after the "pent-up demand" thing fades and the situation normalizes, L and G will still be a bit higher than M and F. Generally, I think it still takes some time before people realize or acknowledge or accept that they are gay, and then they have to adjust to that before they end up wanting to marry.

Originally Posted by Atticus Grinch (Post 481006)

This is the question I'm trying to get at and that everybody but you ducked — will L look like F? Will G look like M?

I suspect that the age of first marriage will prove to be positively correlated with the number of men in a two-person commitment, and negatively correlated with the number of women. I'm guessing L may be as much as 2 years lower than F, and G will be as many as 6 years higher than M because there is no fertility clock.

Originally Posted by taxwonk (Post 481007)

Fess up. What you're trying to do is handicap your odds of winding up a trophy wife when Mrs. Grinch finally smartens up.

Originally Posted by taxwonk (Post 481007)

Fess up. What you're trying to do is handicap your odds of winding up a trophy wife when Mrs. Grinch finally smartens up.

Originally Posted by Atticus Grinch (Post 481008)

That's a potential upward pressure, but I wonder whether the infamous romanticism of the 18-year-old girl will be a downward pressure on L even if the question of sexual orientation is in flux. Time will tell, I suppose.

Originally Posted by Adder (Post 481009)

You've got a point. Structural challenges will keep the very young end of the spectrum from getting hitched. Teh gays will likely at least have to turn 18 and move out of the parents' house.

And I suppose there won't be any shotgun encouraging early marriages either.

Originally Posted by Atticus Grinch (Post 481008)

That's a potential upward pressure, but I wonder whether the infamous romanticism of the 18-year-old girl will be a downward pressure on L even if the question of sexual orientation is in flux. Time will tell, I suppose.

Originally Posted by Sidd Finch (Post 481019)

Your last point is the "doh!" moment for me. Of course -- that's a major downward pressure on marriage ages, isn't it? Not an issue for gay marriages.

A similar but different point: gay people are less likely to be from religions that encourage early marriage either directly (getting married early to start a family is good) or indirectly (I really want to get married soon so I can finally have sex without getting sent to Hell).

Originally Posted by Sidd Finch (Post 481020)

Do you think that young marriages are caused by the 18-yo girl's romanticism, or by unplanned pregnancy and conservative religion? I think the latter two are far more important. L and G will be higher than F and M for many years to come, probably our entire lifetimes.

Originally Posted by Atticus Grinch (Post 480944)

You're expecting a decline in both M and F. But what will L and G be? Will they be the same as the heterosexual numbers? The same as each other? You're ducking the issue, you issue-ducker.

Originally Posted by Sidd Finch (Post 481019)

Your last point is the "doh!" moment for me. Of course -- that's a major downward pressure on marriage ages, isn't it? Not an issue for gay marriages.

A similar but different point: gay people are less likely to be from religions that encourage early marriage either directly (getting married early to start a family is good) or indirectly (I really want to get married soon so I can finally have sex without getting sent to Hell).

Originally Posted by Mmmm, Burger (C.J.) (Post 481027)

Why not ask the question you wanted answered rather than the one you asked and I answered?