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-   -   Mother, mother, mother - there's too many of you crying. (http://www.lawtalkers.com/forums/showthread.php?t=880)

sebastian_dangerfield 06-21-2017 10:00 AM

Re: trifecta
 
Quote:

Originally Posted by Tyrone Slothrop (Post 508405)

Who doesn't want a third party? It's been the white whale for how long now?

I think sometimes we'll one day see a minimally administered/low cost/low spending/free trade/socially tolerant/uninfected with religion/smart on immigration party emerge.

Then I wake up and realize, "America... shit; I'm still only in America... " And up the river the Republic continues, riding "a main circuit cable plugged straight into... Trump."

Replaced_Texan 06-21-2017 10:43 AM

Re: Mother, mother, mother - there's too many of you crying.
 
Quote:

Originally Posted by Tyrone Slothrop (Post 508404)
I see a lot about coverage there, but at first glance wasn't seeing much about outcomes. Did I miss it?

It takes a few years to get the data. We started getting it in bits and pieces in 2011, but it didn't really start rolling in until 2014 or so.

What you might have been hearing about is that in the last three or four years, payment models have moved from volume based to value based, which takes into account outcomes, so there is a dollar amount associated with good results. Hospital program started in 2013 and the physician side started in 2015. I haven't been to a health care seminar in the last two years that hasn't spent a lot of time on MACRA and it seems that the insurance companies are following suit. Even if the ACA goes away, I think this model probably is here to stay. On a personal note, I've been working on a lot more data projects in the last 18 months or so many of which involve outcomes research and a ton of quality assessment and review.

The first MACRA annual report came out earlier this month.

Also, the ACA created the Patient Centered Outcomes Research Institute, which is sort of like the National Academies or the Institute of Medicine, a non governmental research oriented body.

Adder 06-21-2017 10:54 AM

Re: Mother, mother, mother - there's too many of you crying.
 
Quote:

Originally Posted by sebastian_dangerfield (Post 508410)
How many years of evolution, and we still make "gut" calls using relative notions?

It's what we evolved to do. Insert another plug for Think, Fast and Slow here.

sebastian_dangerfield 06-21-2017 11:15 AM

Re: Mother, mother, mother - there's too many of you crying.
 
Quote:

Originally Posted by Adder (Post 508413)
It's what we evolved to do. Insert another plug for Think, Fast and Slow here.

Is that book really as good as so many people have advised? I've almost bought it a few times, but the prose struck me a bit dry, even for that sort of topic.

I'm thinking audiobook might be the best course with it. Strikes me as possibly a good driving book.

Adder 06-21-2017 11:43 AM

Re: Mother, mother, mother - there's too many of you crying.
 
Quote:

Originally Posted by sebastian_dangerfield (Post 508414)
Is that book really as good as so many people have advised? I've almost bought it a few times, but the prose struck me a bit dry, even for that sort of topic.

I'm thinking audiobook might be the best course with it. Strikes me as possibly a good driving book.

I favor audibooks for most things.

I think the ideas in it are interesting and worth knowing about, which is enough to make it a good book to me, although you can get shorter treatments of many those ideas elsewhere.

Pretty Little Flower 06-21-2017 03:45 PM

Re: You've got no love for the underdog/That's why you will not survive...
 
Quote:

Originally Posted by Adder (Post 508381)
Once Yanez testified that he saw a gun, it was going to be really hard to get a conviction.

And heck, he probably believes he saw a gun (now), because that's how memory works - I must a seen a gun or I wouldn't have shot morphs to certainty I saw a gun - but yeah, I don't believe him.

National Review article (David French) on the Castile verdict. The dashcam video is just plain disturbing.

http://www.nationalreview.com/corner...rriage-justice

The Daily Dose is the Universals with some laid back soul-funk. "New Generation":

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=cmYvlrX2g4M

Pretty Little Flower 06-21-2017 05:35 PM

Re: You've got no love for the underdog/That's why you will not survive...
 
Quote:

Originally Posted by Pretty Little Flower (Post 508416)
National Review article (David French) on the Castile verdict. The dashcam video is just plain disturbing.

http://www.nationalreview.com/corner...rriage-justice

The Daily Dose is the Universals with some laid back soul-funk. "New Generation":

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=cmYvlrX2g4M

And this just in from Milwaukee -- if you are a black man and you are being chased by police, throw your gun away (so you no longer have access to it), are shot and lying wounded on the ground with your hands up, that does not mean the police do not have the authority to finish you off at point blank range. Because who knows, you might have another gun. So you die. And the police officer walks.

Tyrone Slothrop 06-21-2017 07:30 PM

Re: Mother, mother, mother - there's too many of you crying.
 
This!

sebastian_dangerfield 06-21-2017 07:32 PM

More fault lines
 
http://www.thedailybeast.com/amazon-...lunder-america

Hank Chinaski 06-21-2017 08:41 PM

Re: More fault lines
 
Quote:

Originally Posted by sebastian_dangerfield (Post 508419)

this is a blog post. it really says little. other than maybe showing what you read to inform your word view?

sebastian_dangerfield 06-21-2017 11:26 PM

Re: More fault lines
 
Quote:

Originally Posted by Hank Chinaski (Post 508420)
this is a blog post. it really says little. other than maybe showing what you read to inform your word view?

This reply says It Worked.

Tyrone Slothrop 06-22-2017 12:38 AM

Re: More fault lines
 
Quote:

Originally Posted by sebastian_dangerfield (Post 508421)
This reply says It Worked.

What the antitrust problem with Amazon?

Tyrone Slothrop 06-22-2017 09:20 AM

Re: Mother, mother, mother - there's too many of you crying.
 
http://www.theroot.com/that-white-bo...-po-1796294201

sebastian_dangerfield 06-22-2017 10:49 AM

Re: More fault lines
 
Quote:

Originally Posted by Tyrone Slothrop (Post 508422)
What the antitrust problem with Amazon?

The better question might be, what's antitrust law's problem with Amazon? http://www.yalelawjournal.org/note/a...itrust-paradox

Adder 06-22-2017 10:52 AM

Re: You've got no love for the underdog/That's why you will not survive...
 
Quote:

Originally Posted by Pretty Little Flower (Post 508416)
National Review article (David French) on the Castile verdict. The dashcam video is just plain disturbing.

http://www.nationalreview.com/corner...rriage-justice

Some on the right get it, apparently.

The 74 Seconds treatment of the video was pretty good. In addition to talking to a former MPD trainer who says Yanez failed completely - not shocking - it goes through the audio of Yanez's very first explanation of what happened. Between him saying he didn't know where the gun was and that Castile's grip looked wider than a wallet, I don't know how he could credibly testify that he saw a gun. He heard "gun" and then assumed it's presence in Castile's hand.

Adder 06-22-2017 10:55 AM

Re: More fault lines
 
Quote:

Originally Posted by sebastian_dangerfield (Post 508424)
The better question might be, what's antitrust law's problem with Amazon? http://www.yalelawjournal.org/note/a...itrust-paradox

I suppose I need to read that, but for now just let me say that buying a specialty retailer doesn't seem like it makes much difference to Amazon's role in retail markets.

ETA: Btw, my favorite lefty "antitrust" freakout over the deal is "Amazon's going to get 451 locations they can use as distribution centers."

Because, right, the expensive real estate that Whole Foods uses for super fancy and expensive grocery stores is perfectly suited to use as a logistics hub and can totally handle hundreds of trucks coming and going every day and Amazon certainly couldn't comparable industrial space for way cheaper than it's paying for Whole Foods.

EATA: Not sure I can finish that article. She's wrong a lot. What she describes as narrowing is actually having to articulate the actual harm. Vertical theories are certainly still viable, just rare, as they should be because the harm is rare. Economies of scale and scope are absolutely barriers to entry under the "Chicago School." Market power is, in fact, often fleeting.

EATA: I really could not care less about the original intent behind 100 year old statutes. Indeed, much of the what motivated the Sherman, Clayton and Robinson-Patman was wrong.

Tyrone Slothrop 06-22-2017 11:04 AM

Re: More fault lines
 
Quote:

Originally Posted by sebastian_dangerfield (Post 508424)
The better question might be, what's antitrust law's problem with Amazon? http://www.yalelawjournal.org/note/a...itrust-paradox

It shouldn't surprise you that I'm familiar with that article. Who ought to be suing Amazon, and for what? Or do the laws need to be changed, and if so how?

Tyrone Slothrop 06-22-2017 11:08 AM

Re: More fault lines
 
Quote:

Originally Posted by Adder (Post 508426)
I suppose I need to read that, but for now just let me say that buying a specialty retailer doesn't seem like it makes much difference to Amazon's role in retail markets.

My son told me at 9:30 last night that he needed an external hard drive to download photos because he had filled his laptop. I got on Amazon and ordered a Seagate drive which they will deliver, at no extra charge because I'm a Prime member, today. Amazon is not monopolizing the market for external drives. There are many other places where I could buy that drive. Nor are they monopolizing the provision of next-day delivery services. Other companies could build that if they want to. As a consumer, I think it's awesome that Amazon will sell me what I want so quickly and conveniently. So what's the argument that markets are not working well?

Adder 06-22-2017 11:20 AM

Re: More fault lines
 
Quote:

Originally Posted by Tyrone Slothrop (Post 508428)
My son told me at 9:30 last night that he needed an external hard drive to download photos because he had filled his laptop. I got on Amazon and ordered a Seagate drive which they will deliver, at no extra charge because I'm a Prime member, today. Amazon is not monopolizing the market for external drives. There are many other places where I could buy that drive. Nor are they monopolizing the provision of next-day delivery services. Other companies could build that if they want to. As a consumer, I think it's awesome that Amazon will sell me what I want so quickly and conveniently. So what's the argument that markets are not working well?

You gotta stop focusing on consumers, man. What about "the health of markets as a whole?"

I mean, how is the higher-cost, lower-service incumbent electronics retailer going to survive? And what's going to happen once it's gone?

But sarcasm aside, not unlike Walmart, I could see potential monopsony issues in theory, but most of what people complain about for both retailers is competition on the merits. It's supposed to be entirely legal to build a monopoly that way.

Nonetheless, get big and successful enough and you're eventually going to get into some antitrust trouble. As usual, I'd expect it from the EU first, but the US agencies will probably come up with a theory right about the time Amazon's being overtaken by whatever's next.

Tyrone Slothrop 06-22-2017 11:29 AM

Re: More fault lines
 
Quote:

Originally Posted by Adder (Post 508429)
You gotta stop focusing on consumers, man. What about "the health of markets as a whole?"

I mean, how is the higher-cost, lower-service incumbent electronics retailer going to survive? And what's going to happen once it's gone?

But sarcasm aside, not unlike Walmart, I could see potential monopsony issues in theory, but most of what people complain about for both retailers is competition on the merits. It's supposed to be entirely legal to build a monopoly that way.

Nonetheless, get big and successful enough and you're eventually going to get into some antitrust trouble. As usual, I'd expect it from the EU first, but the US agencies will probably come up with a theory right about the time Amazon's being overtaken by whatever's next.

E-commerce is killing traditional retail, because it's just not efficient to have to go to store to buy many things. This will cause a lot of dislocation.

sebastian_dangerfield 06-22-2017 12:06 PM

Re: More fault lines
 
Quote:

Originally Posted by Tyrone Slothrop (Post 508427)
It shouldn't surprise you that I'm familiar with that article. Who ought to be suing Amazon, and for what? Or do the laws need to be changed, and if so how?

Nobody. That's the point.

The sole effective change would be to bar predatory pricing of the kind in which Amazon engages. I'm not even remotely close to qualified to comment on the acceptable breadth of antitrust law, but that sounds like outlawing loss leading as a business practice. That seems extreme.

I only offered the article because you asked the question. I was more interested in the question of how people like Bezos view the world (the bit in the editorial I posted earlier, where the author described tech oligarchs as believing they were entitled to outsize influence, as they were emerging as masters, with superfluous labor serfs below).

Hank Chinaski 06-22-2017 12:32 PM

Re: More fault lines
 
Quote:

Originally Posted by Tyrone Slothrop (Post 508428)
My son told me at 9:30 last night that he needed an external hard drive to download photos because he had filled his laptop. I got on Amazon and ordered a Seagate drive which they will deliver, at no extra charge because I'm a Prime member, today. Amazon is not monopolizing the market for external drives. There are many other places where I could buy that drive. Nor are they monopolizing the provision of next-day delivery services. Other companies could build that if they want to. As a consumer, I think it's awesome that Amazon will sell me what I want so quickly and conveniently. So what's the argument that markets are not working well?

The evil thing is it sells infringing stuff from whomever, but insulates itself from infringement suits.

Tyrone Slothrop 06-22-2017 01:22 PM

Re: More fault lines
 
Quote:

Originally Posted by sebastian_dangerfield (Post 508431)
Nobody. That's the point.

The sole effective change would be to bar predatory pricing of the kind in which Amazon engages. I'm not even remotely close to qualified to comment on the acceptable breadth of antitrust law, but that sounds like outlawing loss leading as a business practice. That seems extreme.

I only offered the article because you asked the question. I was more interested in the question of how people like Bezos view the world (the bit in the editorial I posted earlier, where the author described tech oligarchs as believing they were entitled to outsize influence, as they were emerging as masters, with superfluous labor serfs below).

If you want to figure out how Bezos views the world, reading stuff he wrote would be a better place to start.

I don't think Amazon engages in predatory pricing. To the contrary, Amazon often offers pricing that is no better than the competition, but gets business from consumers who like the convenience, who can't be bothered to shop around, or who think it's too déclassé to shop at eBay or Walmart. What Amazon does ruthlessly is try to reduce its costs, and keep its margins low. That's hard for traditional retailers to compete with.

Adder 06-22-2017 02:03 PM

Re: More fault lines
 
Quote:

Originally Posted by sebastian_dangerfield (Post 508431)
The sole effective change would be to bar predatory pricing of the kind in which Amazon engages.

One thing she didn't talk about - for some reason - is the types of predatory price cases that have actually been viable post Brooke Group, which are in industries characterized with high fixed costs as a barrier to entry and very low marginal costs - basically, airlines - where recoupment actually sounds plausible.

Of course, that's not at all Amazon.

Tyrone Slothrop 06-22-2017 02:24 PM

Re: More fault lines
 
Quote:

Originally Posted by Adder (Post 508434)
One thing she didn't talk about - for some reason - is the types of predatory price cases that have actually been viable post Brooke Group, which are in industries characterized with high fixed costs as a barrier to entry and very low marginal costs - basically, airlines - where recoupment actually sounds plausible.

Of course, that's not at all Amazon.

Matt Yglesias's take from four+ years ago still holds up pretty well:

Quote:

Amazon, as best I can tell, is a charitable organization being run by elements of the investment community for the benefit of consumers. The shareholders put up the equity, and instead of owning a claim on a steady stream of fat profits, they get a claim on a mighty engine of consumer surplus. Amazon sells things to people at prices that seem impossible because it actually is impossible to make money that way. And the competitive pressure of needing to square off against Amazon cuts profit margins at other companies, thus benefiting people who don't even buy anything from Amazon.

It's a truly remarkable American success story. But if you own a competing firm, you should be terrified. Competition is always scary, but competition against a juggernaut that seems to have permission from its shareholders to not turn any profits is really frightening.

Greedy,Greedy,Greedy 06-22-2017 02:45 PM

Re: More fault lines
 
Quote:

Originally Posted by Tyrone Slothrop (Post 508435)
Matt Yglesias's take from four+ years ago still holds up pretty well:

I just want to know if I can buy The Slants at Amazon?

Replaced_Texan 06-22-2017 03:21 PM

Re: More fault lines
 
Quote:

Originally Posted by Tyrone Slothrop (Post 508433)
If you want to figure out how Bezos views the world, reading stuff he wrote would be a better place to start.

Our village kicked him out of Gigsville (the village) at Burning Man in 1999. He rode in on a bike, hung out for a little bit, and then tried to throw his bike into the Car-B-Que (our firepit). He was dissuaded and ordered to leave, and I think he's permanently banned from Gigsville. I don't think he's tried to come back.

Tyrone Slothrop 06-22-2017 04:51 PM

Re: More fault lines
 
Quote:

Originally Posted by Replaced_Texan (Post 508437)
Our village kicked him out of Gigsville (the village) at Burning Man in 1999. He rode in on a bike, hung out for a little bit, and then tried to throw his bike into the Car-B-Que (our firepit). He was dissuaded and ordered to leave, and I think he's permanently banned from Gigsville. I don't think he's tried to come back.

Was he entitled?

eta: I've been both attracted and repelled by the prospect of working for Amazon. It sounds like a well-run company that knows how to execute, and gets things right. But it also sounds like it can be miserable.

eta: To avoid confusion, I'm not working for Amazon, but I've thought about it.

Icky Thump 06-22-2017 10:54 PM

Re: More fault lines
 
Quote:

Originally Posted by Tyrone Slothrop (Post 508430)
E-commerce is killing traditional retail, because it's just not efficient to have to go to store to buy many things. This will cause a lot of dislocation.

Immigrents r tekin mer job. So wat I got a c in chem, I wanted too be a ducter

Icky Thump 06-22-2017 10:56 PM

Re: More fault lines
 
Quote:

Originally Posted by sebastian_dangerfield (Post 508431)
Nobody. That's the point.

The sole effective change would be to bar predatory pricing of the kind in which Amazon engages. I'm not even remotely close to qualified to comment on the acceptable breadth of antitrust law, but that sounds like outlawing loss leading as a business practice. That seems extreme.

I only offered the article because you asked the question. I was more interested in the question of how people like Bezos view the world (the bit in the editorial I posted earlier, where the author described tech oligarchs as believing they were entitled to outsize influence, as they were emerging as masters, with superfluous labor serfs below).

Predatory pricing is only when you price low to wipe out your competitors, then raise your price to one you couldn't if you had competitors.

Amazon hasn't done that for anything I bought. Generally, AMZN prices low and keep them low.

Adder 06-23-2017 10:12 AM

Re: More fault lines
 
Quote:

Originally Posted by Icky Thump (Post 508440)
Predatory pricing is only when you price low to wipe out your competitors, then raise your price to one you couldn't if you had competitors.

Amazon hasn't done that for anything I bought. Generally, AMZN prices low and keep them low.

It's the Utah Pie case (described in Sebby's law review note). Amazon is killing retails by being better, cheaper and more convenient. Some think that's a problem.

Tyrone Slothrop 06-23-2017 11:18 AM

Re: Mother, mother, mother - there's too many of you crying.
 
Republican moderates ("moderates") always cave.

sebastian_dangerfield 06-23-2017 11:18 AM

Re: More fault lines
 
Quote:

Originally Posted by Tyrone Slothrop (Post 508438)
Was he entitled?

eta: I've been both attracted and repelled by the prospect of working for Amazon. It sounds like a well-run company that knows how to execute, and gets things right. But it also sounds like it can be miserable.

eta: To avoid confusion, I'm not working for Amazon, but I've thought about it.

I found myself standing next to him at a bar. Seemed pleasant enough. Did not throw his empty glass into the fireplace.

sebastian_dangerfield 06-23-2017 11:30 AM

Re: More fault lines
 
Quote:

Originally Posted by Tyrone Slothrop (Post 508433)
If you want to figure out how Bezos views the world, reading stuff he wrote would be a better place to start.

I read WaPo.

Adder 06-23-2017 11:38 AM

Re: More fault lines
 
Quote:

Originally Posted by sebastian_dangerfield (Post 508444)
I read WaPo.

In that case, you now know that we had intelligence showing Putin personally ordering interference to harm Hillary and help Trump.

Something that Trump should have learned shortly after taking office, like before he fired Comey and invited the foreign minister & ambassador into the Oval Office without the US press and told them that he fired Comey to take the heat off.

If the GOP functioned or cared at all about this country, pre-election collusion would be irrelevant. The way this administration has conducted itself toward Russia and its election interference after taking office is borderline treason.

sebastian_dangerfield 06-23-2017 11:38 AM

Re: More fault lines
 
Quote:

Originally Posted by Greedy,Greedy,Greedy (Post 508436)
I just want to know if I can buy The Slants at Amazon?

I've had "Holiday in Cambodia" and "Police Truck" in my running mix for as long as I've had digital music.

I can't help thinking a lot of this dimwitted tone deafness to irony accrues from people communicating more over disconnected tech mediums than in person. They learn sarcasm late, and badly. I've no doubt 7 out of 10 millennials would recoil at Jello Biafra's lyrics.

Yes, with the surf guitar, the affected lisp, the sneering delivery, and with that band name, Biafra is, of course, an earnest bigot.

Oh, and there's nothing funny about assassinations!

sebastian_dangerfield 06-23-2017 11:54 AM

Re: More fault lines
 
Quote:

Originally Posted by Adder (Post 508445)
In that case, you now know that we had intelligence showing Putin personally ordering interference to harm Hillary and help Trump.

Something that Trump should have learned shortly after taking office, like before he fired Comey and invited the foreign minister & ambassador into the Oval Office without the US press and told them that he fired Comey to take the heat off.

If the GOP functioned or cared at all about this country, pre-election collusion would be irrelevant. The way this administration has conducted itself toward Russia and its election interference after taking office is borderline treason.

I have a serious problem with Russia trying to hack voting machines.

I have no problem with anyone hacking either political party and leaking internal communications to sway public sentiment. The more dirt exposed on the rot within the parties, the better. But I do wish it would be done to both parties as equally as possible (imagine what the RNC said about Trump, and how it attempted to fix things for Jeb, behind the scenes).

Trump doing nothing about the former is a gross abrogation of duty. Doing nothing about the latter is also an abrogation, but a much smaller one, and one that doesn't very much bother me, or anyone else who wishes to see the two parties discredited (read: most of the country).

Tyrone Slothrop 06-23-2017 11:56 AM

Re: More fault lines
 
Quote:

Originally Posted by sebastian_dangerfield (Post 508444)
I read WaPo.

I could read a Tesla owner's manual, but I don't think it would give me any special insight into how Elon Musk thinks.

Tyrone Slothrop 06-23-2017 11:57 AM

Re: More fault lines
 
Quote:

Originally Posted by Adder (Post 508445)
The way this administration has conducted itself toward Russia and its election interference after taking office is borderline treason.

Obama fucked it up too.

Adder 06-23-2017 11:58 AM

Re: More fault lines
 
Quote:

Originally Posted by sebastian_dangerfield (Post 508447)
I have a serious problem with Russia trying to hack voting machines.

They did more than that.

Quote:

The more dirt exposed on the rot within the parties, the better.
This is idiotic, unless the exposure is reciprocal. Exposing one side's dirt and not the other isn't cleansing.

Especially when it's not the dirt that makes a difference but rather the continual coverage of exposure as though the dirt amounted to something (case in point, you still think something shady happened at the DNC, when there's no evidence of that).


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