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-   -   Doesn’t Matter Who Wins the K Race; We’re All the Same (http://www.lawtalkers.com/forums/showthread.php?t=883)

Hank Chinaski 09-05-2019 01:18 PM

Re: Doesn’t Matter Who Wins the K Race; We’re All the Same
 
Quote:

Originally Posted by ThurgreedMarshall (Post 524715)
I have thought it through and I wouldn't set foot in any establishment even loosely connected to him. The last time I had to was during birtherism and a good friend of mine who was recovering from surgery in one of his branded spots. Never again. Jean Georges can move his spot if he wants my business.

Give your business to Jose Andres.

TM

Thanks. In Trump Chicago the flagship 5 star restaurant closed a year ago (maybe for the reason you state) and the space seems to be unrentable. I'd not go into one where the place opened in the last few years.

Tyrone Slothrop 09-05-2019 01:22 PM

Re: Doesn’t Matter Who Wins the K Race; We’re All the Same
 
Quote:

Originally Posted by Hank Chinaski (Post 524724)
Look you and I bleed Crimson, sure, but some of the sharpest lawyers I've worked with are 4th tier- hell I've been impressed with several Cooley grads.

Not sure I want to hire as a paralegal someone who wanted to be a lawyer but went to a crap school and couldn't pass the bar and/or get a lawyer gig. But maybe that's just my elitism talking, which is why I was asking.

Replaced_Texan 09-05-2019 01:40 PM

Re: Doesn’t Matter Who Wins the K Race; We’re All the Same
 
Quote:

Originally Posted by Tyrone Slothrop (Post 524726)
Not sure I want to hire as a paralegal someone who wanted to be a lawyer but went to a crap school and couldn't pass the bar and/or get a lawyer gig. But maybe that's just my elitism talking, which is why I was asking.

We have a lot of JDs in non-attorney positions here that do fine in their jobs, compliance, HR, tech transfer, etc. I think there are more JDs than lawyer jobs out there.

Hank Chinaski 09-05-2019 01:40 PM

Re: Doesn’t Matter Who Wins the K Race; We’re All the Same
 
Quote:

Originally Posted by Tyrone Slothrop (Post 524726)
Not sure I want to hire as a paralegal someone who wanted to be a lawyer but went to a crap school and couldn't pass the bar and/or get a lawyer gig. But maybe that's just my elitism talking, which is why I was asking.

I misunderstood what you were asking. I thought you were asking if it would likely be okay to hire someone like that. I didn't know about the bar failing part. And a 4th tier at a big law firm, really?

Tyrone Slothrop 09-05-2019 01:42 PM

Re: Doesn’t Matter Who Wins the K Race; We’re All the Same
 
Quote:

Originally Posted by Replaced_Texan (Post 524727)
We have a lot of JDs in non-attorney positions here that do fine in their jobs, compliance, HR, tech transfer, etc. I think there are more JDs than lawyer jobs out there.

I can definitely see that, but paralegal seems a little different.

Tyrone Slothrop 09-05-2019 01:46 PM

Re: Doesn’t Matter Who Wins the K Race; We’re All the Same
 
Quote:

Originally Posted by Hank Chinaski (Post 524728)
I misunderstood what you were asking. I thought you were asking if it would likely be okay to hire someone like that. I didn't know about the bar failing part. And a 4th tier at a big law firm, really?

The bar passage rate is pretty low for crap schools, of which California has more than its share, and so when I see a resume from someone with a degree from a fourth-tier school, I assume, perhaps incorrectly, that they got a degree but couldn't pass the bar. But if they did pass the bar and are looking for a paralegal job, that's not good either, if only because I assume they went to law school to be a lawyer, and won't want to stick around as a paralegal once they figure out how to make that work.

Or maybe people just have unrealistic career plans. I talked to guy last week, the friend of a friend, who is in his last year at a not-good law school and who was wanting to work as a paralegal and use that to transition to doing legal work. I said to him, if you walk in the door as a paralegal, most places are going to see you as a paralegal and will not see you as a lawyer.

Hank Chinaski 09-05-2019 01:51 PM

Re: Doesn’t Matter Who Wins the K Race; We’re All the Same
 
Quote:

Originally Posted by Tyrone Slothrop (Post 524730)
The bar passage rate is pretty low for crap schools, of which California has more than its share, and so when I see a resume from someone with a degree from a fourth-tier school, I assume, perhaps incorrectly, that they got a degree but couldn't pass the bar. But if they did pass the bar and are looking for a paralegal job, that's not good either, if only because I assume they went to law school to be a lawyer, and won't want to stick around as a paralegal once they figure out how to make that work.

Or maybe people just have unrealistic career plans. I talked to guy last week, the friend of a friend, who is in his last year at a not-good law school and who was wanting to work as a paralegal and use that to transition to doing legal work. I said to him, if you walk in the door as a paralegal, most places are going to see you as a paralegal and will not see you as a lawyer.

Makes sense. We don't use paras, so my experience is I've hired people with a para degree as a secretary and spend the next several years hearing how they want to be doing para work.

Greedy,Greedy,Greedy 09-05-2019 02:23 PM

Re: Doesn’t Matter Who Wins the K Race; We’re All the Same
 
Quote:

Originally Posted by Adder (Post 524709)
I am also starting to think that Harris's moment is over and it's going to come down to Biden, Bernie and Warren. Among them, Warren is an easy choice for me.

But there's a long way to go.

This race isn't even to its adolescent stage. A lot can still happen.

Tyrone Slothrop 09-05-2019 02:45 PM

Re: Doesn’t Matter Who Wins the K Race; We’re All the Same
 
Quote:

Originally Posted by ThurgreedMarshall (Post 524721)
This is good news, for sure. Although I think every single point will count when it comes to flipping the Senate, if whoever gets the nomination can crush Trump, I'm happy.

But these are national numbers, I assume. I really need to know how everyone is doing relative to Biden in (i) the states that will matter most (Ohio, Michigan, Pennsylvania, Florida, etc.) for the electoral and (ii) the states in which Republican Senators are vulnerable.

TM

Another paywalled post from Josh two hours ago, which maybe will persuade you to give him money to read his stuff:
I want to flag your attention to the new Marquette University Law School poll out yesterday. This is the marquee poll in Wisconsin, run by our friend Charles Franklin. The top lines tell a clear story: Biden over Trump by 9 (51-42), Sanders by 4 (48-44), Warren tied (at 45), Harris tied (at 44).

Numbers can change of course. They can also be wrong. Indeed, it was in Wisconsin where Trump exceeded his predicted numbers by the greatest margin. All that said, Wisconsin is the key state in the entire election. As I’ve argued previously, I’m confident that the winner of Wisconsin will be the next President.

The pattern here is what we had been seeing in the national polls: Biden with a substantial lead, Sanders with a narrower lead and the rest roughly tied with Trump. As noted yesterday, while that spread is similar in the latest national polls, all the Democrats now seem to hold significant leads over Trump.

But there’s one particular point I want to focus in on.

Biden’s stronger numbers in general election horse race polls have been open to differing interpretations. One is simply that he’s better known and credentialed by Barack Obama. So name recognition and trust allows a few more millions of voters to opt for him. But presumably that level of familiarity and trust is one less well known Democrats will be able to build up over time.

That theory is certainly right to a degree. The question is how much.

This poll along with other polls has the other, perhaps greater part of the explanation. In a handful of critical Midwestern states (Pennsylvania, Michigan, Wisconsin, et al.) he simply runs better against Trump. Why that is we can debate – more ideologically conventional policy positions, Obama, race, gender, Senate experience. But that it is the case doesn’t seem open to much doubt. Those margins in a number of key states are what translates into that relative advantage in the national polls.

Whether this will persist we can’t know. But for now, polls suggest Biden is well positioned to beat Trump in Wisconsin. If he does, if any Democrat does, they are likely the next President.

Replaced_Texan 09-05-2019 03:05 PM

Re: Doesn’t Matter Who Wins the K Race; We’re All the Same
 
Quote:

Originally Posted by Tyrone Slothrop (Post 524729)
I can definitely see that, but paralegal seems a little different.

Yeah, we don't have any in our office. While I have faith that some of our support people are better than some of our lawyers in the minutia of filing and responding, they have no illusions that they can do so.

Adder 09-05-2019 03:39 PM

Re: Doesn’t Matter Who Wins the K Race; We’re All the Same
 
Quote:

Originally Posted by ThurgreedMarshall (Post 524721)
But these are national numbers, I assume. I really need to know how everyone is doing relative to Biden in (i) the states that will matter most (Ohio, Michigan, Pennsylvania, Florida, etc.) for the electoral and (ii) the states in which Republican Senators are vulnerable.

It's going to be an interesting map. We need to keep states that are generally blue but were closer than expected (e.g., Minnesota), return states that are generally blue but narrowly went the other way (Wisconsin, Michigan, Pennsylvania) but have a real shot at swinging states that have been trending blue and/or went blue in the midterms (Arizona, North Carolina, and a much longer shot but not entirely out of play, Texas).

Do some of that and we don't even need to worry about the cesspools in Florida and Ohio.

ThurgreedMarshall 09-05-2019 04:33 PM

Re: Doesn’t Matter Who Wins the K Race; We’re All the Same
 
Quote:

Originally Posted by Tyrone Slothrop (Post 524733)
Biden’s stronger numbers in general election horse race polls have been open to differing interpretations. One is simply that he’s better known and credentialed by Barack Obama. So name recognition and trust allows a few more millions of voters to opt for him. But presumably that level of familiarity and trust is one less well known Democrats will be able to build up over time.

That theory is certainly right to a degree. The question is how much.

This poll along with other polls has the other, perhaps greater part of the explanation. In a handful of critical Midwestern states (Pennsylvania, Michigan, Wisconsin, et al.) he simply runs better against Trump. Why that is we can debate – more ideologically conventional policy positions, Obama, race, gender, Senate experience. But that it is the case doesn’t seem open to much doubt. Those margins in a number of key states are what translates into that relative advantage in the national polls.

So, this guy is basically saying what I've been saying, except he hasn't yet come to the conclusion that Biden's numbers are strongest in these states because he is a safe, old white man. He'll get there.

Let me know when he starts digging in to the difference between a Biden candidacy and a Warren candidacy when it comes to flipping crucial senate seats. If there is even a whiff of a chance of getting McConnell the fuck out of his seat and/or retaking the Senate because Biden is polling 1% higher than Warren in those states, motherfuckers better get over this "I need a true progressive" bullshit, vote for Biden and watch him rubber stamp everything Dems force down Republicans' throats for the next 8 years.

TM

ThurgreedMarshall 09-05-2019 04:35 PM

Re: Doesn’t Matter Who Wins the K Race; We’re All the Same
 
Quote:

Originally Posted by Adder (Post 524735)
It's going to be an interesting map. We need to keep states that are generally blue but were closer than expected (e.g., Minnesota), return states that are generally blue but narrowly went the other way (Wisconsin, Michigan, Pennsylvania) but have a real shot at swinging states that have been trending blue and/or went blue in the midterms (Arizona, North Carolina, and a much longer shot but not entirely out of play, Texas).

Do some of that and we don't even need to worry about the cesspools in Florida and Ohio.

I agree on all this. But it's funny that you brought up Texas. Isn't Texas only considered in play at all when Biden is the guy?

TM

Tyrone Slothrop 09-05-2019 04:37 PM

Re: Need for Chaos
 
Quote:

Originally Posted by sebastian_dangerfield (Post 524704)
I suspect it's people who feel like if the systems were erased, they'd have a chance to succeed. I think this thinking runs alongside conspiracy theories because both provide people with a narrative about why they haven't gotten what they think they deserve out of life.

Like Little Bill at the end of Unforgiven, they've not yet grasped that randomness is a big part of life, and "deserve's got nothing to do with it."

I think a sense of fairness infuses a bit of it. That's where the Bernie and Warren people meet the Trump people. They all feel like there is something unfair in the system. They're right. Show me your zipcode at birth, and I'll show you some pretty solid odds on where you'll wind up in the social hierarchy.

This is why I think Warren, and anyone who talks "fairness," has legs.

Mix this up in a stew with accelerating income inequality and you have a delightful powder keg of crazy.

But wait... I'm not done yet. Because here's what I think is the most important connection this author overlooks: Evangelical obsession with apocalypse. Evangelicals love the concept of "end times," of catastrophic events changing humanity. All the kooky Old Testament horseshit. The biggest link this writer missed is between the Need For Chaos crowd and the Megachurch Crowd. There's a direct link between the people who want to burn it all down and the tens of millions who made books like the Left Behind series long running best sellers. Rotating the connections between evangelicals and NFCers is beyond my pay grade. Some anthropologist needs to do that analysis. But I do know that's a significant connection, and this article needs a follow-up linking the two. Because this might explain Trump's evangelical following.

And it might explain why religious types with political leanings have started calling Trump an "imperfect vessel" from which biblical change will emanate. (I'm not kidding... I've heard that from a few devout conservatives.)

We've only begun to scratch the surface of Trump Nation, Bernie Nation, perhaps Warren Nation, I think. But I suspect these factions will align more in the future as inequality accelerates even more. I'm a bit afraid of it. I don't think the alleged "elites" have control anymore. I think they're buying land in New Zealand for good reason. And the one silver lining in a "burn it all down" scenario - grabbing assets cheap and making outsized gains when the govt props everything up to save the economy - might not be available next time around.

Then again, as Lemmy said when given a terminal diagnosis, "Fuck it... I've had a good run." Never be greedy. We've all been quite lucky. Mathematically, statistically, insanely lucky.*

______
* On top of what's stated in the following quote, we happened to be born in the wealthiest nation on Earth, and found ourselves somewhat near the upper echelons of its hierarchies:

“We are going to die, and that makes us the lucky ones. Most people are never going to die because they are never going to be born. The potential people who could have been here in my place but who will in fact never see the light of day outnumber the sand grains of Arabia. Certainly those unborn ghosts include greater poets than Keats, scientists greater than Newton. We know this because the set of possible people allowed by our DNA so massively exceeds the set of actual people. In the teeth of these stupefying odds it is you and I, in our ordinariness, that are here.We privileged few, who won the lottery of birth against all odds, how dare we whine at our inevitable return to that prior state from which the vast majority have never stirred?” - Richard Dawkins

How dare I whine I might have to drink a lesser gin, or eat second tier lox?

Short thread here from John Holbo about Edsall's piece.

In part:
It seems a likely explanation of the high numbers is that significant numbers of people, consuming politics as entertainment, are failing to distinguish harmless fun - just screen stuff! - from a small degree of consequential participation. ... Basically, a lot of people faintly click-conflating fiction and fact, for fun, induces in the aggregate, real distortion in real political attitudes and opinions. We fool ourselves into believing our own fooling.

Adder 09-05-2019 05:35 PM

Re: Doesn’t Matter Who Wins the K Race; We’re All the Same
 
Quote:

Originally Posted by ThurgreedMarshall (Post 524737)
I agree on all this. But it's funny that you brought up Texas. Isn't Texas only considered in play at all when Biden is the guy?

TM

I have exactly zero faith in any state level head-to-head polling more than a year out.

But I want Castro on the ticket so the GOP has to at least think about Texas (not that I'm certain he will make that much difference).


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