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-   -   You (all) lie! (http://www.lawtalkers.com/forums/showthread.php?t=848)

Adder 03-11-2010 01:18 PM

Re: You (all) lie!
 
Quote:

Originally Posted by sebastian_dangerfield (Post 418844)
It is. It's silly. Fucking ludicrous. The "right to recreation?"

I think you can read that as including things like the 8 hour work day (while I'm citing Orwell, see Down and Out in Paris and London) and public parks and spaces.

As for the rest of your post, that was an interesting transition.

sebastian_dangerfield 03-11-2010 01:31 PM

Re: You (all) lie!
 
Quote:

Originally Posted by Adder (Post 418845)
I think you can read that as including things like the 8 hour work day (while I'm citing Orwell, see Down and Out in Paris and London) and public parks and spaces.

As for the rest of your post, that was an interesting transition.

Why? The fear of enforcement of credit terms is the only thing keeping most of the working poor poor. It's fantastic, of course, but if enough people started defaulting en masse and it became more and more apparent that there was no enforcement arm capable of dealing with them, you'd see the erasure of an astonishing amount of paper wealth held by "the rich." People talk of a theoretical "great reset." Well, that's the only way to it.

Adder 03-11-2010 01:51 PM

Re: You (all) lie!
 
Quote:

Originally Posted by sebastian_dangerfield (Post 418846)
Why? The fear of enforcement of credit terms is the only thing keeping most of the working poor poor. It's fantastic, of course, but if enough people started defaulting en masse and it became more and more apparent that there was no enforcement arm capable of dealing with them, you'd see the erasure of an astonishing amount of paper wealth held by "the rich." People talk of a theoretical "great reset." Well, that's the only way to it.

It was an interesting transition because I'm not sure how you got from "freedom of recreation" to your point.

As for your point, I'm not sure I have much to say. I don't think that I would view it as an improvement if people en masse decided to abandon the rule of law by walking away from their obligations, nor do I know whether that type of movement would disproportionately benefit the "rich" or the "poor."

Cletus Miller 03-11-2010 01:52 PM

Re: You (all) lie!
 
Quote:

Originally Posted by sebastian_dangerfield (Post 418846)
Why? The fear of enforcement of credit terms is the only thing keeping most of the working poor poor. It's fantastic, of course, but if enough people started defaulting en masse and it became more and more apparent that there was no enforcement arm capable of dealing with them, you'd see the erasure of an astonishing amount of paper wealth held by "the rich." People talk of a theoretical "great reset." Well, that's the only way to it.

What do you think is the average consumer debt of the working poor? Excluding mortgage debt (which they should also default on, but they will need to pay rent somewhere, so that's not going to move them up to middle class).

But, if you're talking about paydays loans and the like, I sure as shit think they should just default en masse.

Greedy,Greedy,Greedy 03-11-2010 01:57 PM

Re: You (all) lie!
 
Quote:

Originally Posted by Cletus Miller (Post 418850)
What do you think is the average consumer debt of the working poor? Excluding mortgage debt (which they should also default on, but they will need to pay rent somewhere, so that's not going to move them up to middle class).

But, if you're talking about paydays loans and the like, I sure as shit think they should just default en masse.

You know Sebby thinks of himself as working poor, don't you?

sebastian_dangerfield 03-11-2010 02:18 PM

Re: You (all) lie!
 
Quote:

Originally Posted by Adder (Post 418848)
It was an interesting transition because I'm not sure how you got from "freedom of recreation" to your point.

As for your point, I'm not sure I have much to say. I don't think that I would view it as an improvement if people en masse decided to abandon the rule of law by walking away from their obligations, nor do I know whether that type of movement would disproportionately benefit the "rich" or the "poor."

It's not the "rule of law" issue. Lending is a risk based business. Just ask Wall Street, or any of the people fond of quoting Ayn Rand here. If there were a "rule of law" compelling one to pay one's debts, we'd have debtor's prisons.

The poor have cash flow problems. They suffer under predatory credit terms because many of them are desperate or not smart enough to understand terms of agreements. Best way I know to maintain cash on hand in a business setting during tight times is push off payments to creditors. When businesses run into real trouble, they stop paying creditors alltogether. What happens next? The creditors offer discounts. Why shouldn't the working poor take the same approach? And if a whole slew of them did it, the banks would have to offer even better discounts. It's happening right now, of course. But what if a bunch of unexpected defaults were to flood in? That'd screw up all the assumptions the bank's factoring folks use, and probably create more leverage for the people seeking discounts. The ways a proactive default movement could work and the effects are endless, but you get the point. Much more effective than trying to vote your way to relief via redistribution.

sebastian_dangerfield 03-11-2010 02:21 PM

Re: You (all) lie!
 
Quote:

Originally Posted by Cletus Miller (Post 418850)
What do you think is the average consumer debt of the working poor? Excluding mortgage debt (which they should also default on, but they will need to pay rent somewhere, so that's not going to move them up to middle class).

But, if you're talking about paydays loans and the like, I sure as shit think they should just default en masse.

Huge. They're the credit card industry's prime target. The well off or comfortable aren't running $5k on 15% cards. That's the poor, and they'll never get term debt to take that shit out. It compounds and kills them. I've bought credit card charge-off portfolios. It's all the working poor, with a smattering of grifters and decently heeled scumbags who treat credit card solicitations like college kids used to treat those Columbia Record and Tape Club memberships (get the 11 free cds and never pay another penny).

Cletus Miller 03-11-2010 02:22 PM

Re: You (all) lie!
 
Quote:

Originally Posted by sebastian_dangerfield (Post 418852)
It's not the "rule of law" issue. Lending is a risk based business. Just ask Wall Street, or any of the people fond of quoting Ayn Rand here. If there were a "rule of law" compelling one to pay one's debts, we'd have debtor's prisons.

The poor have cash flow problems. They suffer under predatory credit terms because many of them are desperate or not smart enough to understand terms of agreements. Best way I know to maintain cash on hand in a business setting during tight times is push off payments to creditors. When businesses run into real trouble, they stop paying creditors alltogether. What happens next? The creditors offer discounts. Why shouldn't the working poor take the same approach? And if a whole slew of them did it, the banks would have to offer even better discounts. It's happening right now, of course. But what if a bunch of unexpected defaults were to flood in? That'd screw up all the assumptions the bank's factoring folks use, and probably create more leverage for the people seeking discounts. The ways a proactive default movement could work and the effects are endless, but you get the point. Much more effective than trying to vote your way to relief via redistribution.

So, how big of a position in SKF do you have?

Greedy,Greedy,Greedy 03-11-2010 02:36 PM

Re: You (all) lie!
 
Quote:

Originally Posted by sebastian_dangerfield (Post 418853)
Huge. They're the credit card industry's prime target. The well off or comfortable aren't running $5k on 15% cards. That's the poor, and they'll never get term debt to take that shit out. It compounds and kills them. I've bought credit card charge-off portfolios. It's all the working poor, with a smattering of grifters and decently heeled scumbags who treat credit card solicitations like college kids used to treat those Columbia Record and Tape Club memberships (get the 11 free cds and never pay another penny).

So the solution to poverty is cutting the $750 a year interest bill to $400?

Living hand to mouth sucks, and going into debt you can't afford because someone got sick or your car broke down also sucks, but most people are going to get out of poverty by getting a good job, not by cutting their interest payments back and investing the $350.

Cletus Miller 03-11-2010 02:36 PM

Re: You (all) lie!
 
Quote:

Originally Posted by sebastian_dangerfield (Post 418853)
Huge. They're the credit card industry's prime target. The well off or comfortable aren't running $5k on 15% cards. That's the poor, and they'll never get term debt to take that shit out. It compounds and kills them. I've bought credit card charge-off portfolios. It's all the working poor, with a smattering of grifters and well heeled scumbags who treat credit card solicitations like college kids used to treat those Columbia Record and Tape Cloub memberships (get the 11 free cds and never pay another penny).

So, "working poor" is all those not on public assistance outside about the top 5%?

I think of it more like the "official" definition--less than 200% of the poverty line--which is (apparently) 9.6 million households. I tried, but could not find quickly, a breakout for working poor credit, but articles all focus on payday loans, "bad/no credit" auto loans, subprime mortgages (not a continuing issue) and fees related to secured credit cards.

But, of course, the charge-offs are largely from the (now) working poor--maybe they were a little better off when they got the card, but they tried to keep it together by charging stuff as their income dropped (b/c of job los, illness, death, divorce, whatever) and then it go to be too much and they just stopped paying, but w/o a chapter filing. The non-working poor either keep up their payments or file BK in order to keep their house/car + they have enough cash to pay some bk mill's upfront fees.

Sidd Finch 03-11-2010 02:44 PM

Re: You (all) lie!
 
Quote:

Originally Posted by sebastian_dangerfield (Post 418844)
It is. It's silly. Fucking ludicrous. The "right to recreation?"

The answer to wealth disparity is for the poor to fight back directly. No violent revolution, but strikes, sickouts, mass planned defaults. The poor are only poor to the extent everyone around them believes creditors can enforce the terms of their contracts. If a crowd of people who already can't get any credit decided to default on existing obligations en masse and it became clear the creditors couldn't hammer them all, people would notice, and they'd start to say even more than they already are, "Why not default? Nothing really happens." We'd have a nation of people behaving like real estate developers have forever. It'd drive lending to a halt, but if nobody felt obligated to pay anything, what would that matter?

Sounds crazy, right? Well, more and more people are doing it. Buddy of mine defaulted on a second home two years ago and his credit's already back up over 700. He's told other people, and everybody knows no bank chases a deficiency on a mortgage (even bottom feeders won't look at that debt). And why not run the credit card and walk away? Nothing happens. You think a FICO score's going to mean shit for 80% of the population in five years? 650 will be the new 700.

If the poor want to remedy gross wealth disparity, they should directly starve the rest of us of the things we bleed from them - labor and interest. DC is never going to help them. It's terminally broken. And really... Who needs to fight for redistribution via legislative fiat when the initial distribution that keeps the system going, creditors paying their interest, is never made? If the poor never give it, there's no need for the govt to give it back to them. Seems a damned fine way to eliminate an unnecessary middleman, no?

God bless them on the effort. It'd hurt people like me and you, but I'd admire the hell out of them for it.


This is all very interesting in 2010. It's not what the world looked like in 1945, when the idea of working people having huge credit obligations was hardly conceivable. And when American workers weren't facing competition from cheap-labor countries like China or India; hell, even Europe, having been half-destroyed, couldn't compete with the US.

The threat to America was communism, both in the form of a new/soon-to-be adversary in the USSR, and perhaps more so in an ideology. Mass strikes and unrest like you are talking about is exactly what FDR wanted to avoid, because having poor people get power that way would only strengthen the reds.

Tyrone Slothrop 03-11-2010 06:04 PM

File under "Things that would suck"
 
Harry Reid's wife broke her neck in a serious auto accident this afternoon.

Atticus Grinch 03-11-2010 06:18 PM

Re: File under "Things that would suck"
 
Quote:

Originally Posted by Tyrone Slothrop (Post 418862)
Harry Reid's wife broke her neck in a serious auto accident this afternoon.

Glenn Beck turns story into "Gold-Plated Health Plan for Congressmen" in 4 . . . 3 . . . 2 . . . .

Hank Chinaski 03-11-2010 07:11 PM

Re: You (all) lie!
 
Quote:

Originally Posted by sebastian_dangerfield (Post 418844)
It is. It's silly. Fucking ludicrous. The "right to recreation?"

The answer to wealth disparity is for the poor to fight back directly. No violent revolution, but strikes, sickouts, mass planned defaults. The poor are only poor to the extent everyone around them believes creditors can enforce the terms of their contracts. If a crowd of people who already can't get any credit decided to default on existing obligations en masse and it became clear the creditors couldn't hammer them all, people would notice, and they'd start to say even more than they already are, "Why not default? Nothing really happens." We'd have a nation of people behaving like real estate developers have forever. It'd drive lending to a halt, but if nobody felt obligated to pay anything, what would that matter?

Sounds crazy, right? Well, more and more people are doing it. Buddy of mine defaulted on a second home two years ago and his credit's already back up over 700. He's told other people, and everybody knows no bank chases a deficiency on a mortgage (even bottom feeders won't look at that debt). And why not run the credit card and walk away? Nothing happens. You think a FICO score's going to mean shit for 80% of the population in five years? 650 will be the new 700.

If the poor want to remedy gross wealth disparity, they should directly starve the rest of us of the things we bleed from them - labor and interest. DC is never going to help them. It's terminally broken. And really... Who needs to fight for redistribution via legislative fiat when the initial distribution that keeps the system going, creditors paying their interest, is never made? If the poor never give it, there's no need for the govt to give it back to them. Seems a damned fine way to eliminate an unnecessary middleman, no?

God bless them on the effort. It'd hurt people like me and you, but I'd admire the hell out of them for it.

I'm trying to buy my daughter's apartment/condo. My credit score is infinity. I could buy the place cash. I am having a really hard time getting a loan.

do you really think banks will be loaning easy to poor people anytime soon? not arguing, serious question for everyone. my experience on this purchase has shocked/scared (I have clients that benefit from new home sales) me.

Hank Chinaski 03-11-2010 07:22 PM

Re: File under "Things that would suck"
 
Quote:

Originally Posted by Atticus Grinch (Post 418863)
Glenn Beck turns story into "Gold-Plated Health Plan for Congressmen" in 4 . . . 3 . . . 2 . . . .

if monica lewinsky had broken her neck in 92 or so, hillary would be president today.

I was at bill's library Tuesday. the place was sort of busy still, of course in Little Rock it isn't fighting too many other "attractions". Still, i wonder what the half life is for Prez museums- like does anyone go to LBJ's anymore?


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