Re: Doesn’t Matter Who Wins the K Race; We’re All the Same
 

I think I've drummed up a little business for you among some friends, I'm going to wait for their report and the publication of your scotch list before I decide how far out of my way I'm willing to go to get there.

Still, I've dreamed of such a thing, great going.

Re: Doesn’t Matter Who Wins the K Race; We’re All the Same
 

You can chose not to believe me, but I did/do not know what the head-to-heads look like in Texas. I'll take your word for it, though.

But Texas has enough people who live in cities, enough POC and in particular latinx people who have pretty good reasons to be motivated against Trump, and has been on a medium term purplish trend that such that it needs to be part of the Dems stretch goals.

Which is part of why I want a Texan on the ticket. My grossly simplified Dem strategy is for the presidential nominee to focus on the Path to Victory states - Wisconsin, Michigan and Pennsylvania - with a Veep who can concentrate on the stretch goal states - Arizona, North Carolina, Georgia and Texas. We don't "need" to win any of those, but if we it simplifies things a lot.

Re: Doesn’t Matter Who Wins the K Race; We’re All the Same
 

Much of that is fair, but this one I'm not sure is correct. To my recollection the bipartisan elites were mostly shying away from the Islamophobia that was pervasive on Fox News (and its ilk). Part of Trump's differentiation from the GOP field was being willing to say the things that politicians hadn't been saying.

Re: Doesn’t Matter Who Wins the K Race; We’re All the Same
 

Dude, I appreciate the thoughtful analysis. I read all of it very carefully. But this is very simple. And it's the last time I'm going to do this.

• Barack Obama won the Presidency and held it
• All kinds of white people felt/feel threatened (including a good portion of those who voted for him)
• White people decided that the guy who told them they were still in charge was the guy
• A lot of those people thought Trump was mostly harmless and not really interested in governing
• A lot of those people are shocked at how horrific he and his Administration have been
• Those people are looking for a safe alternative--they want Obama without all the scary implications of their shaky standing in a changing world. That person is Biden, who will smile and talk about his dead son, and who will feel like the nice, white grandpa they like to think their racist grandpa is
• You can talk about black voters and the Latino vote and whatever demographic you want, but the key to this election is white people. Full stop.
• Biden will make gaffe after gaffe. He has already! Warren can propose actual plans, Bernie can promise the world. None of that shit will change the fact that Biden will comfort white people--white people in Kentucky (including the military base that just lost its new middle school funds to Trump's wall), white people in Arizona, Montana, Alabama, Maine, Colorado, Alaska, Ohio, Pennsylvania, Michigan, Florida, New Mexico, Minnesota, Wisconsin, Iowa, etc.--the ones who don't go to fucking rallies, the ones Hillary neglected and who thought she was a phony, the ones who won't vote for a smart woman with plans or a Jew, or a black woman, or a charismatic gay man. You know...the ones who will decide this election

It sucks. It's sad. I want Warren. But what I want doesn't fucking matter. What matters is putting up the person, or combination of people, who will win by the most votes. Even if they win by a large margin, a slightly larger margin will be truly significant. We need to wipe Republicans out of the House. We need to flip the Senate (and I don't care how we do it). We need to make the 2018 wave look like a ripple in a puddle. So, until you or Adder or Ty and the poll numbers show me that any other choice will make that happen, Biden is the guy. His numbers aren't moving for a reason.

Maybe part of that reason is that the Democratic field is too crowded. But the best thing for this country right now is for the race for the Democratic nod end and everyone put their considerable weight behind the nominee. The fighting and the accusations of racism and the bringing up of shit that happened 40 fucking years ago is going to weaken the nominee. It did last time when Bernie proved he was as big of a narcissistic asshole as anyone who's ever run for President. It will again.

Everyone outside of the top 3, need to fucking go. Stop trying to trade your dropping out of the race for a cabinet position, you selfish fucking pricks. This is an emergency. Leave. Go. Good bye.

TM

Re: Doesn’t Matter Who Wins the K Race; We’re All the Same
 

Cool. Thanks!

Yeah, it takes time to build a really great Scotch and bourbon list. It's not just the investment, a lot of the really good stuff isn't just available. You have to qualify, be the right kind of place, know the right people, etc. But we'll get there.

Yes. It was a true fucking slog. But the motivation of getting me the fuck out of my current miserable business was enough to get me through.

TM

Re: Doesn’t Matter Who Wins the K Race; We’re All the Same
 

But they aren't going up either.

Re: Doesn’t Matter Who Wins the K Race; We’re All the Same
 

I am deeply jealous.

Re: Doesn’t Matter Who Wins the K Race; We’re All the Same
 

And all of the attacks by people who absolutely can't win aren't helping. He should pick Warren or Kamala as a running mate, have them help him craft his message and put forth actual policy plans while (i) making sure he knows it's not like the old days--when his stories didn't need to be true except for the feeling he is obviously so good at conveying to anyone in the room, (ii) help him to avoid stepping on his dick, and (iii) start really building.

TM

Re: Doesn’t Matter Who Wins the K Race; We’re All the Same
 

It may be what you say, but it also may be that people know that they don't cast a primary vote until February, so it's all a bit remote for most people right now.

I guess I disagree, except for your penultimate sentence. It's not good for the party and the eventual nominee to clear the field. That's what happened last time -- it was clear that Hillary was the presumptive nominee, and she scared almost everyone else from even running, because her victory seemed certain. A couple of things happened.

One is that she ran cautiously, trying to protect her inevitable victory instead of figuring out how to persuade people to join her. The primary field wasn't the only reason for this, but it presaged how she ran against Trump and it did not fly.

Another is that nature abhors a vacuum, and politics is about how people disagree, so Bernie Sanders got much more traction than anyone would have thought as the most viable alternative to Hillary, and the leader of the leftier side of the Democratic Party. Bernie is certainly a flawed vessel, but it should not have surprised anyone that someone emerged to catalyze opposition to HRC in the primaries, because there is a split in Democratics that goes way, way back. Al Gore had Bill Bradley. John Kerry had Howard Dean. 2008 was a little weird because a lot of lefties gravitated towards Obama, even though he turned out to be pretty centrist, but there was still a knock-down, drag-out fight between him and HRC.

You don't have to have fighting and accusations of racism and the bringing up of shit and all of the rest. Neither Gore nor Kerry beat Bush*, but they both unified the party pretty well. As did Obama after a race with Clinton that got pretty bitter at times. Whether you blame Clinton or Sanders or both for what happened the last time, it wasn't inevitable (and if you think it was inevitable, doesn't that let either/both off the hook?).

The eventual nominee isn't necessarily weakened by the primary process. They are strengthened by it too. Biden hasn't run at the top of the ticket in a long time -- doing it in the primary should make him better for the general. Warren needs to figure out how to run as an executive, not a legislator. And so on, for all of the other candidates. They need a chance to make some mistakes when the primary audience is sympathetic Democrats, and swing voters aren't paying attention. They need to figure out which messages work, and how to tailor their appeal to different audiences. They need to figure out how to appeal to Democrats without turning off independents.

And Bernie may be a narcissistic asshole and sore loser who is more interested in his own ego than in defeating Trump. I hope not, but we shall see. If he is, I agree that it's a problem, and lament that there's nothing you or I can do about it than wish he would drop out, cut it out, and support the party's nominee. But I hope for better from him.

I may not have a ton of faith in Bernie, but I have some faith in the process

Re: Doesn’t Matter Who Wins the K Race; We’re All the Same
 

It's been 20 years. It's enough already with this business.

TM

Re: Doesn’t Matter Who Wins the K Race; We’re All the Same
 

Serious congrats, man. Place looks great.

Re: Doesn’t Matter Who Wins the K Race; We’re All the Same
 

Maybe one of the antitrust experts here can enlighten me: Why isn't the answer to this a motion that reads:

Dear Judge,

Noerr-Pennington

Thank you,

Automakers

Re: Doesn’t Matter Who Wins the K Race; We’re All the Same
 

I disagree. In the history of elections in our lifetimes, who the Democratic nominee will be is probably as un-remote as it will ever be. Now, relative to mid-2020, it may still be a bit remote, but this is not an ordinary election.

I think political wonks, like you, are stuck on how things used to (and how they're supposed to) work. These days are mostly over. And in the immediate case, with the guy who currently occupies the office, all the rules we're used to are out the fucking window.

Honing your message, taking on critics and strengthening your debate chops, fashioning your message so that it appeals to the broadest audience? That shit is history. Now, you are in danger of having lunatics stay home or jump to Gary fucking Johnson if you aren't progressive enough to please Susan Sarandon. And being that progressive doesn't fucking translate to the general. Last time around, Bernie helped define Hillary as the Goldman Sachs candidate. Trump jumped all over that bullshit. Bernie stayed in too long and didn't properly galvanize his crazy ass following behind Hillary when she needed it. Corey Booker knows he's not going to win. Why isn't anyone telling him to fucking bounce? de Blasio? "If I don't make gains, I'll leave next month"?? Are you stupid? You won't even win your next election in the bluest city in the country. Buttigieg? I know this is great for you, personally--your name recognition is rising. Maybe you're the future of the Party. But right now, get to fucking steppin'. Beto? You're a selfish fucking asshole for not leaving and running for Senate. That's how you can best serve this country. But you're not interested in that. You're interested in how to best serve yourself.

The longer we spend tearing down the eventual nominee in the primaries, the more danger we'll be in of repeating 2016. All focus needs to be on Trump. I mean, fuck. Biden's completely legitimate stance on healthcare: "Let's fix Obamacare, actually support it, and make it work the way it was meant to" now reads like a conservative manifesto to so many in the party who think they're getting a full public option.

I just think we need to stop acting like this election process--from primary through the general--is anything like it used to be. It's not. Come together, make sure you know who the nominee is, the next closest person is the running mate, hand out cabinet positions, and start figuring out how to keep Republicans from cheating and spend all of the Party money building up the nominee and fighting Republican bullshit.

TM

Re: Doesn’t Matter Who Wins the K Race; We’re All the Same
 

John Mulaney is a national treasure.

Re: Doesn’t Matter Who Wins the K Race; We’re All the Same
 

I'm going to leave this alone because I think we both understand each other but haven't convinced the other. I'm watching. I think there is a better than fifty percent chance that both Biden and Sanders implode before the first votes are cast in Iowa. And we'll want a little more field if that happens.

That said, I think the pace at which candidates are dropping is pretty good, and at this pace it will be four or five candidates by the time most of America is paying attention.