LawTalkers - Doesn’t Matter Who Wins the K Race; We’re All the Same

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Re: Doesn’t Matter Who Wins the K Race; We’re All the Same

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Originally Posted by ThurgreedMarshall (Post 524758)

It did last time when Bernie proved he was as big of a narcissistic asshole as anyone who's ever run for President.

TM

I just wanted to highlight this one. Right now the candidate I most want to see gone is that narcissistic asshole. The candidates most likely to do damage on their way out are Bernie and Williamson. Boot em fast.

Re: Doesn’t Matter Who Wins the K Race; We’re All the Same

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Originally Posted by ThurgreedMarshall (Post 524764)

It's been 20 years. It's enough already with this business.

TM

Wait. Are you doing this to make money?

Re: Doesn’t Matter Who Wins the K Race; We’re All the Same

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Originally Posted by ThurgreedMarshall (Post 524767)

I disagree. In the history of elections in our lifetimes, who the Democratic nominee will be is probably as un-remote as it will ever be. Now, relative to mid-2020, it may still be a bit remote, but this is not an ordinary election.

I hear you about why this year is different, but the fact remains that the first primaries are several months away and even those people who are paying close attention know that things may change. You describe me as a political wonk, which is often fair, but I have not watched a single debate, I am not paying much attention to the stories about the candidates, and I don't have a favorite. I have given (a little) money to Steve Bullock to help keep him in the field, but if a pollster asked me who I'd vote for, I wouldn't be able to say.

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I think political wonks, like you, are stuck on how things used to (and how they're supposed to) work. These days are mostly over. And in the immediate case, with the guy who currently occupies the office, all the rules we're used to are out the fucking window.

I don't understand why you think the things I described have changed. No one is going to be casting a vote before early next year.

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Honing your message, taking on critics and strengthening your debate chops, fashioning your message so that it appeals to the broadest audience? That shit is history. Now, you are in danger of having lunatics stay home or jump to Gary fucking Johnson if you aren't progressive enough to please Susan Sarandon.

They can't stay home or jump to Gary fucking Johnson until next November. Whatever Joe Biden or any other candidate says now is not going to direct affect anyone's choice next November. It will indirectly affect those choices, in that the better they get at this shit now, the better they will keep those things from happening in fourteen months.

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And being that progressive doesn't fucking translate to the general. Last time around, Bernie helped define Hillary as the Goldman Sachs candidate. Trump jumped all over that bullshit. Bernie stayed in too long and didn't properly galvanize his crazy ass following behind Hillary when she needed it.

The Democratic candidates have different ways of running in the primary, not all of which hurt the eventual nominee. Jay Inslee ran, he said (and I believe him), to put a policy focus on climate issues. Similarly, other candidates can run with their own policy issues, hoping to attract voters that way and if not to introduce ideas that will have their own staying power.

Bernie attacked Hillary in ways that hurt her in the general. You can blame Bernie for this, and you can also blame Hillary for not figuring out how to solve that problem in the general. Hillary was not the most effective candidate ever. She might have been even worse if she had only had to fend off Martin O'Malley before she got to Trump. I don't think Bernie particularly weakened Hillary -- I think she was weak, and both Bernie and Trump exposed her.

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The longer we spend tearing down the eventual nominee in the primaries, the more danger we'll be in of repeating 2016. All focus needs to be on Trump. I mean, fuck. Biden's completely legitimate stance on healthcare: "Let's fix Obamacare, actually support it, and make it work the way it was meant to" now reads like a conservative manifesto to so many in the party who think they're getting a full public option.

Well, yes -- the primary shouldn't be able tearing down the eventual nominee, and I think most of the candidates will avoid doing that. Since neither of us is in the position to force anyone to drop out, we're both just opinionating and saying what we wish other people would do, but if I had a magic wand, I would use it to keep Sanders, Gabbard, and other Dems from tearing each other down, rather than using it to end the process now (which is not exactly what you're saying, I know).

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I just think we need to stop acting like this election process--from primary through the general--is anything like it used to be. It's not. Come together, make sure you know who the nominee is, the next closest person is the running mate, hand out cabinet positions, and start figuring out how to keep Republicans from cheating and spend all of the Party money building up the nominee and fighting Republican bullshit.

You still got to give the people their say in picking the nominee, and that takes some time to do right.

Re: Doesn’t Matter Who Wins the K Race; We’re All the Same

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Originally Posted by Greedy,Greedy,Greedy (Post 524769)

I'm going to leave this alone because I think we both understand each other but haven't convinced the other. I'm watching. I think there is a better than fifty percent chance that both Biden and Sanders implode before the first votes are cast in Iowa. And we'll want a little more field if that happens.

That said, I think the pace at which candidates are dropping is pretty good, and at this pace it will be four or five candidates by the time most of America is paying attention.

No one here is a Sanders fan and I try not to pay attention to him, so maybe I'm missing something, but I really don't see how he does better than he did last time. He got to be the lefty alternative to the establishment Dem candidate last time, by default, and there were always going to be Dems in favor of that. This time there are other choices, and he's four years older.

Re: Doesn’t Matter Who Wins the K Race; We’re All the Same

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Originally Posted by Tyrone Slothrop (Post 524773)

Right now Liz may be Biden's best friend. If she got out, Sanders would probably go up. I think she's the one who will push Sanders out.

Re: Doesn’t Matter Who Wins the K Race; We’re All the Same

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Originally Posted by Tyrone Slothrop (Post 524754)

You say stuff like this a lot, but your answers are usually along the lines of, it needs to all burn down, which sounds more like the problem than a solution. Other than voting for Gary Johnson, what is to be done?

Cap gains taxed as regular income.
Taxes on securities transactions (Warren’s plan).
Health system like France.
UBI (replacing several less efficient safety net programs, but leaving efficient ones in place).
Cap on student loan borrowing of $10k a year.
No student loans allowed for for profit colleges.
Student loans allowed to be discharged in bkcy.
(Those last three will implode education sector, which needs to be reset and restarted with discipline.)

This would move us in the right direction.

Re: Doesn’t Matter Who Wins the K Race; We’re All the Same

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Originally Posted by Tyrone Slothrop (Post 524766)

Maybe one of the antitrust experts here can enlighten me: Why isn't the answer to this a motion that reads:

Dear Judge,

Noerr-Pennington

Thank you,

Automakers

Right?

Re: Doesn’t Matter Who Wins the K Race; We’re All the Same

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Originally Posted by Greedy,Greedy,Greedy (Post 524749)

Of course, the biggest problem was people in swing states not voting for Clinton.

How? She was going to do nothing about the rot that led to Trump.

Re: Doesn’t Matter Who Wins the K Race; We’re All the Same

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Originally Posted by Greedy,Greedy,Greedy (Post 524774)

Right now Liz may be Biden's best friend. If she got out, Sanders would probably go up. I think she's the one who will push Sanders out.

Without thinking about the merits of individual candidates, one might expect the race to evolve into a two-person contest between a more centrist, establishment type, and a more progressive, insurgent type. In past years, the centrist (Gore, Kerry, HRC) usually prevails, but this year may be different, just as in 2008 the dissatisfaction with eight years of GWB may have pushed some Democrats to the left. A lot of Democrats who used to be inclined to bipartisanship and compromise now feel that it's a suckers game to cooperate with Republicans who won't ever return the favor.

Re: Doesn’t Matter Who Wins the K Race; We’re All the Same

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Originally Posted by sebastian_dangerfield (Post 524775)

Wow. Sounds like you should vote for Democrats.

Re: Doesn’t Matter Who Wins the K Race; We’re All the Same

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Originally Posted by Tyrone Slothrop (Post 524779)

Wow. Sounds like you should vote for Democrats.

I have.

Hillary wasn’t going to do any of those things except perhaps in regard to healthcare.

If I’m going to pay higher taxes, I want to see real efficient and effective change. I’m not voting for a corporate lackey who’ll just redistribute at the margins and dither as the country is hollowed out. I can get that, with a tax break, by voting Republican.

Re: Doesn’t Matter Who Wins the K Race; We’re All the Same

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Originally Posted by Greedy,Greedy,Greedy (Post 524771)

Wait. Are you doing this to make money?

Crazy, I know.

TM

Re: Doesn’t Matter Who Wins the K Race; We’re All the Same

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Originally Posted by sebastian_dangerfield (Post 524777)

How? She was going to do nothing about the rot that led to Trump.

As a lawyer, I assume you understand different types of causation.

The "direct" cause of Trump getting elected was .... the vote.

Everything else is not a "direct" cause, but instead the kind of causation generally known as the "bullshit excuse."

Re: Doesn’t Matter Who Wins the K Race; We’re All the Same

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Originally Posted by Greedy,Greedy,Greedy (Post 524782)

Trump getting elected is the symptom. The underlying disease that led to that symptom is the thing that matters.

I thought Heer made that pretty clear.

If you think getting Trump out is the fix that cures all that or even most of what ails the country, I've a brid-- er, no... I've Greenland to sell you.

Re: Doesn’t Matter Who Wins the K Race; We’re All the Same

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Originally Posted by ThurgreedMarshall (Post 524781)

Crazy, I know.

TM

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