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-   -   Is Ted Cruz Satan? Discuss. (http://www.lawtalkers.com/forums/showthread.php?t=875)

Pretty Little Flower 03-03-2016 09:34 PM

Re: This.
 
Quote:

Originally Posted by sebastian_dangerfield (Post 499311)
It isn't all racist dog whistling.

When this is your strongest card, it is time to fold.

Hank Chinaski 03-03-2016 10:27 PM

Re: Is Ted Cruz Satan? Discuss.
 
Quote:

Originally Posted by Sidd Finch (Post 499302)
Like what happened to Palin?

Palin was nothing before the election. Trump had a name, and one that seems very important to him.

Tyrone Slothrop 03-03-2016 10:50 PM

Re: Is Ted Cruz Satan? Discuss.
 
Quote:

Originally Posted by sebastian_dangerfield (Post 499260)
Sanders is nuts, but he's addressing the root problems in the country.

He is addressing the issue of money in politics, but isn't he kinda focused on that one? Seems like there's a lot of stuff he isn't addressing. Seems like he is a protest candidate who didn't expect to be in this position.

Quote:

And his followers, however naive they might be, saw hope in the guy.
Lots of his followers want someone who is going to try for more fundamental change than the incrementalism that Hillary offers. Martin O'Malley didn't move them.

Why were there so few good candidates on both sides this year? HRC scared some Dems off, certainly.

Tyrone Slothrop 03-03-2016 10:51 PM

Re: Is Ted Cruz Satan? Discuss.
 
Quote:

Originally Posted by SEC_Chick (Post 499266)
Massachusetts was probably crossover from some blue collar and union types to whom the populism and protectionism may have some appeal. I know it was NY and not MA, but Hillary can't even fill a rally when unions make attendance mandatory and pay comp time for people to attend.

Vermont elected Bernie Sanders. They are both reliably blue states, and Vermont, kind of like NH, doesn't have a reputation for picking winners on the R side. While any R would rather have the delegates than not, I would just assume that no one is going to spend time or money there and that it's a state where someone like Kasich would outperform, and thus no one else would even try. Bottom of the barrel for Super Tuesday.

Primaries are awesome because Alabama Democrats and Vermont Republicans actually get to cast a vote that might matter.

Tyrone Slothrop 03-03-2016 10:58 PM

Re: Is Ted Cruz Satan? Discuss.
 
Tyler Cowen has a post titled, What Are The Core Differences Between Republicans And Democrats? I like it so much that I'm going to quote it here in full. His version has a bunch of links I haven't reproduced.

Quote:

Paul Krugman has a long post on this question, here is part of his bottom line:

Quote:

…the Democratic Party…[is] a coalition of teachers’ unions, trial lawyers, birth control advocates, wonkish (not, not “monkish” — down, spell check, down!) economists, etc., often finding common ground but by no means guaranteed to fall in line. The Republican Party, on the other hand, has generally been monolithic, with an orthodoxy nobody dares question. Or at least nobody until you-know-who…
My view is not so far from that, but I would put it a little differently and then push harder on some other dimensions of the distinction (btw Brad DeLong comments). The Republican Party is held together by the core premise that the status of some traditionally important groups be supported and indeed extended. That would include “white male producers,” but not only. You could add soldiers, Christians (many but not all kinds), married mothers, gun owners, and other groups to that list.

(The success of Trump by the way is that he appeals to that revaluation of values directly, and bypasses or revises or ignores a lot of the associated policy positions. That is why the Republican Party finds it so hard to counter him and also fears it will lose its privileged position, were Trump to win. The older Republican policy positions haven’t delivered much to people for quite some time.)

Democrats are a looser coalition of interest groups. They agree less on exactly which groups should rise in status, or why, but they share a skepticism about the Republican program for status allocation, leading many Democrats to dislike the Republicans themselves and to feel superior to them. In any case, that underlying diversity does mean fewer litmus tests and potentially a much broader political base, as we observe in higher turnout Presidential elections, which Democrats are more likely to win these days. That also means more room for intellectual flexibility, although in some historical eras this operates as a negative.

Right off the bat, this distinction between the two parties puts most blacks, single women, and most but not all Hispanics in the Democratic camp. Not-yet-assimilated immigrants have a hard time going Republican, even though a lot of high-achieving Asians might seem like natural conservatives. No matter how much Republicans talk about broadening their message, the core point is still “we want to raise the status of groups which you don’t belong to!” That’s a tough sell, and furthermore the Republicans can fall all too readily into the roles of being oppressors, or at least talking like oppressors.

Republicans, who are focused on the status of some core groups at the exclusion of others, are more likely to lack empathy. Democrats, who oppose some of the previously existing status relations, and who deeply oppose the Republican ideology, are more likely to exhibit neuroticism.

It is easy for Republicans to see the higher neuroticism of Democrats, and easier for Democrats to see the lesser empathy of Republicans. It is harder for each side to see its own flaws, or to see how the other side recognizes its flaws so accurately.

Academics are one of the interest groups courted by Democrats. Academics want to appear high status and reasonable, and Democrats offer academics some of those features in the affiliation, including the option to feel they are better than Republicans. So on issues such as evolution vs. creationism (but not only), Democrats truly are more reasonable and more scientific. Academics consume those status goods, plus the academics already had some natural tendencies toward neuroticism.

Academics shouldn’t feel too good about this bargain. They are being “used” as all party interest groups are, and how much reasonableness they can consume in the Democratic coalition will ebb and flow with objective conditions. In the 1970s and 1980s, for instance, it was common for Democrats to be more delusional than Republicans, and those days may someday return, though not this year.

Next, we must move beyond the federal level to understand the two parties, and that is also a good litmus test for whether a discussion of the two parties is probing as opposed to self-comforting.

At the state and local level, the governments controlled by Republicans tend to be better run, sometimes much better run, than those controlled by the Democrats (oops). And a big piece of how American people actually experience government comes at the state and local level.

This superior performance stems from at least two factors. First, Republican delusions often matter less at the state and local level, and furthermore what the core Republican status groups want from state and local government is actually pretty conducive to decent outcomes. The Democrats in contrast keep on doling out favors and goodies to their multitude of interest groups, and that often harms outcomes. The Democrats find it harder to “get tough,” even when that is what is called for, and they have less of a values program to cohere around, for better or worse.

Second, the states with a lot of Democrats are probably on average harder to govern well (with some notable Southern exceptions). That may excuse the quality of Democratic leadership to some degree, but it is not an entirely favorable truth for the broader Democratic ethos. Republicans, of course, recognize this reality. Even a lot of independent voters realize they might prefer local Republican governance, and so in the current equilibrium a strong majority of governors, state legislatures, and the like are Republican.
Think on those facts — or on the state of Illinois — the next time you hear the Democrats described as the reality-oriented community. That self-description is “the opium of the Democrats.”

If you wish to try to understand Republicans, think of them as seeing a bunch of states, full of Republicans, and ruled by Republicans, and functioning pretty well. (Go visit Utah!) They think the rest of America should be much more like those places. They also find that core intuition stronger than the potential list of views where Democrats are more reasonable or more correct, and that is why they are not much budged by the intellectual Democratic commentary. Too often the Democrats cannot readily fathom this.

At some level the Republicans might know the Democrats have valid substantive points, but they sooner think “Let’s first put status relations in line, then our debates might get somewhere. In the meantime, I’m not going to cotton well to a debate designed to lower the status of the really important groups and their values.” And so the dialogue doesn’t get very far.

Again, both the Democrats and the Republicans have their ready made, mostly true, and repeatedly self-confirming stories about the defects of the other. They need only read the news to feel better about themselves, and the academic contingent of the Democrats is better at this than are most ordinary citizens. There is thus a rather large cottage industry of intellectuals interpreting and channeling these stories to Democratic voters and sympathizers. On the right, you will find an equally large cottage industry, sometimes reeking of intolerance or at least imperfect tolerance, peddling mostly true stories about the failures of Democratic governance, absurd political correctness, tribal loyalties, and so on. That industry has a smaller role for the intellectuals and a larger role for preachers and talk radio.

It is easier for intelligent foreigners to buy more heavily into the Democratic stories. They feel more comfortable with the associated status relations, and furthermore foreigners are less likely to be connected to American state and local government, so they don’t have much sense of how the Republicans actually are more sensible in many circumstances.

It would be wrong to conclude that the two parties both ought to be despised. This is human life, and it is also politics, and politics cannot be avoided. These are what motivations look like. Overall these motivations have helped create and support a lot of wonderful lives and a lot of what is noble in the human spirit. We should honor that side of American life, while being truly and yet critically patriotic.
That said, I see no reason to fall for any of these narratives. The goal is to stand above these biases as much as possible, and communicate some kind of higher synthesis, in the hope of making it all a bit better.

This year, I’m just hoping it doesn’t get too much worse. In the last few years I have seen some nascent signs that Democrats are becoming less reasonable at the national level, for instance their embrace of the $15 national minimum wage. I also am seeing signs that the Republicans are becoming less fit to govern at the local level, probably because national-level ideology is shaping too many smaller scale, ostensibly pragmatic decisions. The Trump fixation also could end up hurting the quality of Republican state and local government. So this portrait could end up changing fairly rapidly and maybe not for the better.

ThurgreedMarshall 03-04-2016 10:06 AM

Re: This.
 
Quote:

Originally Posted by sebastian_dangerfield (Post 499311)
I get the emotion, but I'm entitled to disagree with you. Yes, Trump is a favorite of racists. But the protectionists are his bread and butter. The xenophobes necessarily come with that.

And let's face it. Whoever's running on the GOP ticket always gets the racist vote.

I'm not stopping. I respect your point, but I'm holding mine. And I'm not rationalizing the Trump voters in aggregate. Nor should anyone. Different people support him for various reasons. It isn't all racist dog whistling. Not by a long shot.

I have not been exposed to one rational person who would vote for Trump. I suspect you haven't either. If that's the case, you're pulling shit straight out of your ass for why people are voting for him, because all evidence we have seen points to support strictly from small-minded bigots who hate Mexicans, Muslims, blacks, women, LGBT, and losers (somehow defined as anyone but them). Your globalization argument is just ridiculous.

TM

Adder 03-04-2016 10:27 AM

Re: Is Ted Cruz Satan? Discuss.
 
Quote:

Originally Posted by Tyrone Slothrop (Post 499316)
Tyler Cowen has a post titled, What Are The Core Differences Between Republicans And Democrats? I like it so much that I'm going to quote it here in full. His version has a bunch of links I haven't reproduced.

Not sure I buy his state and local level analysis. For one thing, I don't think a key difference between New York, for example, and Utah is which party runs things locally (and go visit Minnesota!). But even more importantly, I think the better observation is that local political issues are simply far less "partisan" at least as to the things that municipalities actually do. States more so, but still not to the degree of the federal government. The parties do their darnedest to try to make thing partisan, and there's partisanship around the edges, but ultimately everyone agrees we need roads and schools.

Also, the minimum wage is a funny issue to use to show Dems being unreasonable. For some reason, it's such an article of faith among right-leaning economists that minimum wages are bad that the significant evidence that any harm is small, if it exists at all, must be ignored. (Not saying the question is settled, just saying it's not "unreasonable" to consider what the empirical work suggests.)

Sidd Finch 03-04-2016 11:15 AM

Re: This.
 
Quote:

Originally Posted by SEC_Chick (Post 499308)
Van Jones is generally not at the top of my list of people with whom I agree, but I agree with him 1000%. And another clip of him from the night of the SC results when he talked about Trump as well. And believe it or not, a LOT people on conservative social media are in agreement. Trump is openly courting the votes of white supremacists, and it makes me sick.

I was not a huge fan of Dole or McCain and in 2012 I was in the 'Anybody but Romney' camp, but I could get onboard to support them in the general election. I could possibly get past his kind of crappy policy ideas, but I cannot get past his horrible racism or misogyny, or his treatment of the disabled or veterans.

I am in mourning and am working through the stages of grief for the cause I have supported my entire adult life and given no small amount of time or money. As you have seen today, I am still working through the stage of denial. I cannot support Trump. And I find him so offensive that if the race is close and he looks like he may win, I will not only get super drunk and vote for Hillary, I would actively campaign for her.

I don't think it will come to that, thankfully. I was already fully onboard with the #NeverTrump movement within the party, and are a number of us who are horrified at what has become of the GOP. I like to think we are the Silent Majority, but that is probably just the Denial talking. Mr. Chick and I are supporting the Senate candidates likely to be harmed by a Trump nomination.

I would rather be in exile than be complicit in the nomination or election of Donald Trump. Clips like this just make me incredibly sad.

I have found your posts in the last few days to be very interesting, and in many ways encouraging about the state of our nation.

Also, I'd be interested in working with you on the "Drunk Republican Texas Chicks For Hillary" program, if it comes to that. Might as well enjoy the ride, no?

Sidd Finch 03-04-2016 11:18 AM

Re: Is Ted Cruz Satan? Discuss.
 
Quote:

Originally Posted by Hank Chinaski (Post 499313)
Palin was nothing before the election. Trump had a name, and one that seems very important to him.

She wasn't nothing in Alaska, and losing didn't hurt here there. Nor did looking crazy.

There is a yuge audience of dittoheads and nutjobs looking for a preacher. Do you think Trump can't turn a second-place run into a reality TV show? (Fuck, he'd probably do a reality show if he got a first-place run. "So You Wanna Be SCOTUS Justice?")

Sidd Finch 03-04-2016 11:21 AM

Re: Is Ted Cruz Satan? Discuss.
 
Quote:

Originally Posted by Tyrone Slothrop (Post 499314)
He is addressing the issue of money in politics, but isn't he kinda focused on that one? Seems like there's a lot of stuff he isn't addressing. Seems like he is a protest candidate who didn't expect to be in this position.

He's also addressing the need to tear down Obama's biggest accomplishment, healthcare, and replace it with a wet dream about pink bunnies and rainbows.

Quote:

Why were there so few good candidates on both sides this year? HRC scared some Dems off, certainly.
Anyone with a realistic shot at the core party + independents, that's needed to win the general election, was scared of competing with Hillary. Sanders saw a moment -- not to win, but to pull the party left.

Sidd Finch 03-04-2016 11:22 AM

Re: Is Ted Cruz Satan? Discuss.
 
Quote:

Originally Posted by Tyrone Slothrop (Post 499315)
Primaries are awesome because Alabama Democrats and Vermont Republicans actually get to cast a vote that might matter.

As a Californian, my first thought on reading this is "fuck you." But I get your point.

Greedy,Greedy,Greedy 03-04-2016 11:29 AM

Re: This.
 
Quote:

Originally Posted by ThurgreedMarshall (Post 499317)
I have not been exposed to one rational person who would vote for Trump. I suspect you haven't either. If that's the case, you're pulling shit straight out of your ass for why people are voting for him, because all evidence we have seen points to support strictly from small-minded bigots who hate Mexicans, Muslims, blacks, women, LGBT, and losers (somehow defined as anyone but them). Your globalization argument is just ridiculous.

TM

We have a guy who comes for a day a week and does all the stuff around the place I can't really do anymore, and he's Brazilian, only recently a citizen, going to vote in the US for the first time this year, and he told us about a month ago that he liked Trump. Perfectly rational guy, but doesn't focus much on politics. My wife and I both said almost at the same time "have you listened to what he says about immigrants".

Two weeks later I was talking to him and he said, you know, I hadn't paid much attention to what he was actually saying, I just liked his tone. But now that I've listened to him more closely, he's crazy.

Greedy,Greedy,Greedy 03-04-2016 11:33 AM

Re: Is Ted Cruz Satan? Discuss.
 
Quote:

Originally Posted by Sidd Finch (Post 499321)
Anyone with a realistic shot at the core party + independents, that's needed to win the general election, was scared of competing with Hillary. Sanders saw a moment -- not to win, but to pull the party left.

I was actually surprised more candidates didn't get in on the dem side to build their credentials for next time. Some of that may be that many of our most promising future candidates (I'm thinking Kirsten Gillibrand, for example) are pretty big Hillary supporters, and saw more opportunity in being on the inside of a Hillary run and administration than in building their own electoral base.

Sidd Finch 03-04-2016 11:48 AM

Re: Is Ted Cruz Satan? Discuss.
 
Quote:

Originally Posted by Greedy,Greedy,Greedy (Post 499324)
I was actually surprised more candidates didn't get in on the dem side to build their credentials for next time. Some of that may be that many of our most promising future candidates (I'm thinking Kirsten Gillibrand, for example) are pretty big Hillary supporters, and saw more opportunity in being on the inside of a Hillary run and administration than in building their own electoral base.


The opportunity to be in the administration is one reason not to run against her. A bigger reason is that supporting her now creates the chance to get her (and Bill's) support later, while opposing her ruins it.

And a candidate needs a reason to run. O'Malley was the perfect example of a candidate who didn't have that reason. He was "not Hillary," that's about it. He wasn't opposed to her on any major policy issues, certainly didn't want to attack her, and so had no base of support from which to draw (either votes or money).

Note that I'm not saying that having such a clear front-runner, so early, is a good thing for the party. In some ways it is, in others it isn't.

Greedy,Greedy,Greedy 03-04-2016 11:58 AM

Re: Is Ted Cruz Satan? Discuss.
 
Quote:

Originally Posted by Sidd Finch (Post 499325)
The opportunity to be in the administration is one reason not to run against her. A bigger reason is that supporting her now creates the chance to get her (and Bill's) support later, while opposing her ruins it.

And a candidate needs a reason to run. O'Malley was the perfect example of a candidate who didn't have that reason. He was "not Hillary," that's about it. He wasn't opposed to her on any major policy issues, certainly didn't want to attack her, and so had no base of support from which to draw (either votes or money).

Note that I'm not saying that having such a clear front-runner, so early, is a good thing for the party. In some ways it is, in others it isn't.

I don't think running against her hurts anyone's ability to get her future support, unless they run a totally pitiful campaign like Webb. I would not be surprised to see her find a good portfolio for both O'Malley and Sanders.


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