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-   -   Objectively intelligent. (http://www.lawtalkers.com/forums/showthread.php?t=884)

Pretty Little Flower 11-10-2020 09:24 AM

Re: Objectively intelligent.
 
Quote:

Originally Posted by sebastian_dangerfield (Post 530571)
I feel bad for the frackers here.

Finally some empathy!

SEC_Chick 11-10-2020 09:31 AM

Re: Objectively intelligent.
 
Here is where I think I ultimately come down on the election. It was a victory for non-Trumpy conservatism as much as anything else. It was a repudiation of Trump personally, if you look at how he performed relative to the Republicans down ballot. It was likewise a repudiation of woke progressivism. Biden won by fairly thin margins, and he had campaigned as a bland, inoffensive, not Trump who was against fracking before he wasn't, and wasn't going to say how he felt about court packing (and said the people didn't deserve to know his position) until he ultimately decided he would put together a commission to study it. The Republicans held on to their state legislatures and even made gains in state governments in advance of redistricting. Biden was not particularly liked by anyone, but he wasn't Trump. But there were plenty of people who voted Biden and then for GOP down ballot and seemed to resist the nationalization of their local elections. And there are bright spots like Ben Sasse winning by 40 points, when Trump only won by 20. I don't know if the Green party took much grief after 2016, but Trumpers are pretty livid over the Libertarian vote this time. The Libertarian response, of course, is that this is what the map would have looked like if Trump voters hadn't thrown away their votes.

https://pbs.twimg.com/media/EmZFVaTX...g&name=900x900

I understand (and I heard this from John Podhoretz on the Commentary podcast, which is my favorite of the NeverTrump variety) that assuming the GOP holds the Senate, Biden will be the first president to take office without his party in control of the Senate in 116 years, which renders him particularly weak. I mean, that is just about my dream for a Democratic presidency. Now, would I prefer that he not have the head of a teachers union as head of the Department of Education? Of course, but I think it's a relatively small price to pay for nothing of substance getting done. Of course, if the Ds take the Senate, it's all in the hands of Joe Manchin (who voted with Trump 52% of the time).

The biggest downside is that there are maybe 17 to 20 million voters who are hard core Trump firsters. And excessive eagerness to please Trump by future hopefuls will be the price of access to those votes.

I am horrified (though not surprised) at the acquiescence by Republicans to the delegitimization of the election (and ultimately our system of government), but I don't see it as much different or or substantially less helpful as when Hillary referred to Trump as an "illegitimate president" or when Stacey Abrams is celebrated for pretending to have won an election.

ETA, If the reports of DJT Jr. and Kimberly Guilfoyle making moves to take over the RNC are true, that sucks for sure.

ET Further A, I think that Biden will undeniably an improvement in our relations with European allies, but I fear that the one thing Biden will really screw up is the Middle East. Obama/Kerry was *terrible* on Iran, and the advancement of Israel and normalization of relations in the ME is probably the biggest single win for the Trump administration. I swear that if Biden brings in Ben Rhodes I will go insane.

Greedy,Greedy,Greedy 11-10-2020 11:17 AM

Re: Objectively intelligent.
 
Quote:

Originally Posted by Replaced_Texan (Post 530569)
The second the first returns came in, I knew it wasn't going to happen. Biden wasn't winning by enough, and it was Beto / Cruz all over again.

I didn't think he'd win, but I did think he'd be a lot closer, and I know a lot of people in the party trying to figure out what happened. A lot of people are surprised that more state house seats weren't flipped.

Running weak state-wide candidates and not having a ground game really hurt the Dems. Resting on Beto's laurels from two years ago didn't help either. His strategy was physically going places and pressing hands to hands. And it nearly worked.

Hegar impressed Hollywood with some pretty flashy ads, so she got tons of outside endorsements and cash, but she didn't make inroads at all with the party. Every single person she beat in the primary endorsed the other guy in the runoff. I don't remember her ever coming to Houston, I don't remember her being that interested in traveling all over. Covid obviously hurt, and the Republicans had NO problems going door-to-door.

We'll see what the next cycle brings. I've heard rumblings that Julian Castro is going for Abbott. Dunno what Beto is going to do, though I hear he might go after Cruz again. There's a lot of head scratching about what is going on in the Valley, so I imagine a lot of outreach is going on.

But yeah, I was so proud of Biden from staying away from fracking and fossil fuels for so long, and then the damned second debate he had to bring it up. I know tons of people out of work right now in O&G. And lord knows if it's going to recover to the level it was. Salt did not need to be rubbed in that particular wound if he had a prayer of winning.

That said, with a million plus new voters, it was always going to be hard to see where exactly they fall. Polling was pretty even for Biden/Trump towards the last month or so.

So in hindsight, was the focus on South Texas in the advertising budget the right thing to do, because there were persuadables there, or might we have cracked a CD or two or gotten more legislative seats if we'd focused on the big cities?

Adder 11-10-2020 12:06 PM

Re: Objectively intelligent.
 
Quote:

Originally Posted by SEC_Chick (Post 530580)
Here is where I think I ultimately come down on the election. It was a victory for non-Trumpy conservatism as much as anything else. It was a repudiation of Trump personally, if you look at how he performed relative to the Republicans down ballot. It was likewise a repudiation of woke progressivism. Biden won by fairly thin margins, and he had campaigned as a bland, inoffensive, not Trump who was against fracking before he wasn't, and wasn't going to say how he felt about court packing (and said the people didn't deserve to know his position) until he ultimately decided he would put together a commission to study it. The Republicans held on to their state legislatures and even made gains in state governments in advance of redistricting. Biden was not particularly liked by anyone, but he wasn't Trump. But there were plenty of people who voted Biden and then for GOP down ballot and seemed to resist the nationalization of their local elections. And there are bright spots like Ben Sasse winning by 40 points, when Trump only won by 20. I don't know if the Green party took much grief after 2016, but Trumpers are pretty livid over the Libertarian vote this time. The Libertarian response, of course, is that this is what the map would have looked like if Trump voters hadn't thrown away their votes.

https://pbs.twimg.com/media/EmZFVaTX...g&name=900x900

I understand (and I heard this from John Podhoretz on the Commentary podcast, which is my favorite of the NeverTrump variety) that assuming the GOP holds the Senate, Biden will be the first president to take office without his party in control of the Senate in 116 years, which renders him particularly weak. I mean, that is just about my dream for a Democratic presidency. Now, would I prefer that he not have the head of a teachers union as head of the Department of Education? Of course, but I think it's a relatively small price to pay for nothing of substance getting done. Of course, if the Ds take the Senate, it's all in the hands of Joe Manchin (who voted with Trump 52% of the time).

The biggest downside is that there are maybe 17 to 20 million voters who are hard core Trump firsters. And excessive eagerness to please Trump by future hopefuls will be the price of access to those votes.

I am horrified (though not surprised) at the acquiescence by Republicans to the delegitimization of the election (and ultimately our system of government), but I don't see it as much different or or substantially less helpful as when Hillary referred to Trump as an "illegitimate president" or when Stacey Abrams is celebrated for pretending to have won an election.

ETA, If the reports of DJT Jr. and Kimberly Guilfoyle making moves to take over the RNC are true, that sucks for sure.

ET Further A, I think that Biden will undeniably an improvement in our relations with European allies, but I fear that the one thing Biden will really screw up is the Middle East. Obama/Kerry was *terrible* on Iran, and the advancement of Israel and normalization of relations in the ME is probably the biggest single win for the Trump administration. I swear that if Biden brings in Ben Rhodes I will go insane.

Trump is a turnout machine. It will be interesting to see what happens when he's not on the ticket or whatever he is going to do going forwatrd.

Greedy,Greedy,Greedy 11-10-2020 12:15 PM

Re: Objectively intelligent.
 
Quote:

Originally Posted by SEC_Chick (Post 530580)

ET Further A, I think that Biden will undeniably an improvement in our relations with European allies, but I fear that the one thing Biden will really screw up is the Middle East. Obama/Kerry was *terrible* on Iran, and the advancement of Israel and normalization of relations in the ME is probably the biggest single win for the Trump administration. I swear that if Biden brings in Ben Rhodes I will go insane.

OK, Ben Rhodes it is!

Obama realized the critical point on Iran, which is that is it all about unity with our allies (and, if at all possible, China, too). Sanctions from us alone just move Iran's business to other countries. Thanks to Kerry, we got about four to five years of virtually uniform worldwide sanctions, which will be hard to ever get again now.

In most cases, sanctions just suck as a way of getting anything done, and the beauty of free trade and capitalism does way more to open up countries like Iran to the free world than sanctions do. But there is a narrow set of circumstances where truly global sanctions can work. In all other cases, like with Cuba, they just drive the sanctioned country into other alliances and relationships.

sebastian_dangerfield 11-10-2020 02:01 PM

Re: Objectively intelligent.
 
Quote:

Originally Posted by Pretty Little Flower (Post 530579)
Finally some empathy!

That’s sympathy, not empathy. I didn’t say I knew how they feel or what it feels like to be them. I feel bad for them the way feeling bad uniquely feels to me.

I felt the same way for Scott Norwood.

sebastian_dangerfield 11-10-2020 02:07 PM

Re: Objectively intelligent.
 
Quote:

Originally Posted by SEC_Chick (Post 530580)
Here is where I think I ultimately come down on the election. It was a victory for non-Trumpy conservatism as much as anything else. It was a repudiation of Trump personally, if you look at how he performed relative to the Republicans down ballot. It was likewise a repudiation of woke progressivism. Biden won by fairly thin margins, and he had campaigned as a bland, inoffensive, not Trump who was against fracking before he wasn't, and wasn't going to say how he felt about court packing (and said the people didn't deserve to know his position) until he ultimately decided he would put together a commission to study it. The Republicans held on to their state legislatures and even made gains in state governments in advance of redistricting. Biden was not particularly liked by anyone, but he wasn't Trump. But there were plenty of people who voted Biden and then for GOP down ballot and seemed to resist the nationalization of their local elections. And there are bright spots like Ben Sasse winning by 40 points, when Trump only won by 20. I don't know if the Green party took much grief after 2016, but Trumpers are pretty livid over the Libertarian vote this time. The Libertarian response, of course, is that this is what the map would have looked like if Trump voters hadn't thrown away their votes.

https://pbs.twimg.com/media/EmZFVaTX...g&name=900x900

I understand (and I heard this from John Podhoretz on the Commentary podcast, which is my favorite of the NeverTrump variety) that assuming the GOP holds the Senate, Biden will be the first president to take office without his party in control of the Senate in 116 years, which renders him particularly weak. I mean, that is just about my dream for a Democratic presidency. Now, would I prefer that he not have the head of a teachers union as head of the Department of Education? Of course, but I think it's a relatively small price to pay for nothing of substance getting done. Of course, if the Ds take the Senate, it's all in the hands of Joe Manchin (who voted with Trump 52% of the time).

The biggest downside is that there are maybe 17 to 20 million voters who are hard core Trump firsters. And excessive eagerness to please Trump by future hopefuls will be the price of access to those votes.

I am horrified (though not surprised) at the acquiescence by Republicans to the delegitimization of the election (and ultimately our system of government), but I don't see it as much different or or substantially less helpful as when Hillary referred to Trump as an "illegitimate president" or when Stacey Abrams is celebrated for pretending to have won an election.

ETA, If the reports of DJT Jr. and Kimberly Guilfoyle making moves to take over the RNC are true, that sucks for sure.

ET Further A, I think that Biden will undeniably an improvement in our relations with European allies, but I fear that the one thing Biden will really screw up is the Middle East. Obama/Kerry was *terrible* on Iran, and the advancement of Israel and normalization of relations in the ME is probably the biggest single win for the Trump administration. I swear that if Biden brings in Ben Rhodes I will go insane.

DJT Jr. has to understand, one cannot develop a chin through beard alone (or from shooting endangered animals).

I hung out with Guilfoyle for a few hours once years ago. She looked like one of those banged up chicks who runs a Piercing Pagoda kiosk in a failing mall.

sebastian_dangerfield 11-10-2020 02:08 PM

Re: Objectively intelligent.
 
Quote:

Originally Posted by Tyrone Slothrop (Post 530577)
I can see that you might have read it that way if you weren't paying attention. Sebby said, "Were progressives to take control of all three beaches, we’d have what we had in Trump’s first two years in reverse." If you're paying attention now, you'll know he meant branches of government, not beaches. My point was that we had Democratic control of the Presidency, House and Senate from 2008-10, and it wasn't "Trump's first two years in reverse." I meant that that Democratic Congress was responsible for a decade of economic prosperity in the same way that I mean that those two years were a "hellscape," which is to say that both were obviously hyperbole. You seem to have figured out that I didn't think it was really a hellscape, so I guess you were batting .500.

I meant beaches. East, West, and the Gulf.

We can’t let them do it.

Pretty Little Flower 11-10-2020 03:23 PM

Re: Objectively intelligent.
 
Quote:

Originally Posted by sebastian_dangerfield (Post 530584)
That’s sympathy, not empathy. I didn’t say I knew how they feel or what it feels like to be them. I feel bad for them the way feeling bad uniquely feels to me.

I felt the same way for Scott Norwood.

You felt empathy. The empathy that only a true libertarian feels when he sees another freedom lover oppressed by the tyranny of overreaching government regulations.

It may be the same way you feel about Scott Norwood. Did you choke and blow any big games in high school?

Hank Chinaski 11-10-2020 06:00 PM

Re: Objectively intelligent.
 
Quote:

Originally Posted by sebastian_dangerfield (Post 530584)
That’s sympathy, not empathy. I didn’t say I knew how they feel or what it feels like to be them. I feel bad for them the way feeling bad uniquely feels to me.

I don't have a unique way of feeling bad. I have several. Like say if I'm physically sick, that's one way. Or if I see a baby bird that has fallen from its nest, that's another way. Or when my knee ligaments are basically gone, but Dr. Sarno insists I ignore the pain and just run over it, that's another way. Or when I read Adder's posts that are full of grammar errors and typos, knowing that he is disrespecting the sense of quality posting that Flower wants, that's another way. But I always feel good when I come here and see you and Flower starting up another fascinating exchange. The two of always make me forget about all my feeling bad; you guys always turn my frowns upside down!

Pretty Little Flower 11-10-2020 11:04 PM

Re: Objectively intelligent.
 
Quote:

Originally Posted by Hank Chinaski (Post 530588)
I don't have a unique way of feeling bad. I have several. Like say if I'm physically sick, that's one way. Or if I see a baby bird that has fallen from its nest, that's another way. Or when my knee ligaments are basically gone, but Dr. Sarno insists I ignore the pain and just run over it, that's another way. Or when I read Adder's posts that are full of grammar errors and typos, knowing that he is disrespecting the sense of quality posting that Flower wants, that's another way. But I always feel good when I come here and see you and Flower starting up another fascinating exchange. The two of always make me forget about all my feeling bad; you guys always turn my frowns upside down!

I know you were trying to be sarcastic. But I also know that, in your heart, you were being sincere. On behalf of Sebastian and myself, you’re welcome.

sebastian_dangerfield 11-11-2020 10:52 AM

Re: Objectively intelligent.
 
Quote:

Originally Posted by Pretty Little Flower (Post 530587)
You felt empathy. The empathy that only a true libertarian feels when he sees another freedom lover oppressed by the tyranny of overreaching government regulations.

It may be the same way you feel about Scott Norwood. Did you choke and blow any big games in high school?

The first rule of Libertarian Club is no one may feel anything but atomized from everyone else. There is no newsletter as agreement on font cannot be reached.

No coach ever put me in a position to choke. My short basketball career involved repeated admonitions: "Do not attempt to dribble. Pull down the rebound and pass it immediately."

I lost a golf match once by shooting I think three consecutive 8's on the final three holes.

If there's a way to overthink something and almost grasp defeat from the jaws of victory, I've overthought it, and then overthought about the overthinking, too. This is why alcohol clarifies things for me. Shuts down that motor.

sebastian_dangerfield 11-11-2020 11:03 AM

Re: Objectively intelligent.
 
Quote:

Originally Posted by Hank Chinaski (Post 530588)
I don't have a unique way of feeling bad. I have several. Like say if I'm physically sick, that's one way. Or if I see a baby bird that has fallen from its nest, that's another way. Or when my knee ligaments are basically gone, but Dr. Sarno insists I ignore the pain and just run over it, that's another way. Or when I read Adder's posts that are full of grammar errors and typos, knowing that he is disrespecting the sense of quality posting that Flower wants, that's another way. But I always feel good when I come here and see you and Flower starting up another fascinating exchange. The two of always make me forget about all my feeling bad; you guys always turn my frowns upside down!

You are legion. Mark 5:1-20

Find thee a herd of swine.

Tyrone Slothrop 11-11-2020 03:02 PM

Re: Objectively intelligent.
 
Quote:

Originally Posted by sebastian_dangerfield (Post 530590)
The first rule of Libertarian Club is no one may feel anything but atomized from everyone else.

Speaking of libertarians, Radley Balko could have written this thread about you.

sebastian_dangerfield 11-11-2020 04:18 PM

Re: Objectively intelligent.
 
Quote:

Originally Posted by Tyrone Slothrop (Post 530592)

If the libertarians are more sympathetic to the right, or at least less vigilant in concern about the right, when can we expect the Hanks of Trumpland to start excoriating libertarians for costing Trump the election?

Will they have any credibility in making such an assertion? Only about as much as everybody here who bleated ad nauseum about third-party voters after 2016 did.


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