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Cletus Miller 01-09-2009 04:35 PM

Re: Madoff
 
Quote:

Originally Posted by ThurgreedMarshall (Post 376923)
Interesting. I always thought is was the former. Right before it crashed, wasn't he looking for $9 billion worth of investments to keep the scheme afloat in the short term? If you've only ever actually gotten $15 billion, what's the point in trying to raise a quick $9 billion? That ain't gonna happen even in a great market.

And since he was really just taking new investor money and using it to pay returns on old investor money and he had clients who invested like $4 billion dollars with him, I figured he actually lost the $50 billion of money invested with him. Now I gotta actually look into all this. Thanks a lot.

TM

You may well be right, but the first couple days after this broke, there were a lot of smaller numbers flying around--$17B was the other number I saw or heard most often. And given that a lot of the money had been invested with him for many years, and been "growing" at 10-15% every year, wouldn't the total, if $50B was invested, have to be $70b or $80B? And if the investors' statements "totaled" $80B, wouldn't the media run with that larger number instead?

And you're welcome. Hope it doesn't interfere with your billable work.

Tyrone Slothrop 01-09-2009 04:50 PM

private
 
Kinda funny:

Quote:

President George W. Bush's Harvard Business School friend, U.S. ambassador to Hungary April H. Foley, was scheduled to have a farewell party at the embassy in Budapest next Wednesday. But the going-away shindig has been canceled, as Foley's ambassadorship has suddenly been extended a few months. . . .

Foley, who became ambassador in 2006, applied for a six-month extension on her time in Budapest in November, but we're told Foggy Bottom said no. So why is she sticking around?

Well, when Foley was first appointed to head the Export-Import bank in 2003, the Washington Post's Al Kamen reported that "she used to date George W. Bush when both were at Harvard Business School and has remained friends with him." A source suggests Bush personally asked Obama at a meeting of current, future and former U.S. presidents this past week to give Foley an extension on her Budapest ambassadorship gig.

Asked about that, a White House spokeswoman said her colleague Dana Perino had made clear numerous times that the conversation between presidents was private.

Sidd Finch 01-09-2009 04:51 PM

Re: As Willard said to Kurtz.
 
Quote:

Originally Posted by Tyrone Slothrop (Post 376904)
As a friend of Israel, I would hope that Israel has a better strategy than the ambassador was able to describe. Possibly, he sees his job as PR, and there is some strategy that he's not describing. Possibly, there is no strategy other than to get people to stop shooting rockets at them for a while. That would be really depressing.


I suspect that there are a number of different potential goals that Israel wants to accomplish. Whether all of the key people have agreed on a set of goals is another question, but I too would hope that they would do so.

That said, even if there is a very clear goal or set of goals in mind, I wouldn't expect Israel to broadcast what those are. They announced their goals in attacking Hezbollah in 2006, and failed to achieve them, creating a victory for Hezbollah. No one can say "we decided not to discuss our goals in public because we want to preserve our ability to declare victory at a time of our choosing," but that would be a good decision to make.

Mmmm, Burger (C.J.) 01-09-2009 04:54 PM

Re: private
 
Quote:

Originally Posted by Tyrone Slothrop (Post 376938)

Maybe Laura Bush prevailed upon Hillary, who knew all too well what could happen otherwise?

Tyrone Slothrop 01-09-2009 05:01 PM

Re: As Willard said to Kurtz.
 
Quote:

Originally Posted by Sidd Finch (Post 376939)
I suspect that there are a number of different potential goals that Israel wants to accomplish. Whether all of the key people have agreed on a set of goals is another question, but I too would hope that they would do so.

That said, even if there is a very clear goal or set of goals in mind, I wouldn't expect Israel to broadcast what those are. They announced their goals in attacking Hezbollah in 2006, and failed to achieve them, creating a victory for Hezbollah. No one can say "we decided not to discuss our goals in public because we want to preserve our ability to declare victory at a time of our choosing," but that would be a good decision to make.

If you read that account of the ambassador's performance and say to yourself, well, probably Israel has clear goals and a sound plan for how to achieve them, and just isn't saying, then you are more of an optimist than I am.

Tyrone Slothrop 01-09-2009 05:03 PM

interesting
 
Also from Marc Lynch's blog:

Quote:

. . . Hamas enjoys a special place in al-Qaeda's enemies list. Al-Qaeda has long been desperate for a foothold in Palestine, but has been largely kept out because Hamas has the place locked. Jihadist forums bear a deep grudge over Hamas's crackdown on various jihadist groups which have tried to set up shop there (Jaysh al-Islam, et al). In March 2006, Zawahiri denounced Hamas's electoral victory and called on them to reject the democratic trap and pursue armed struggle. In February 2007 he attacked the Mecca Agreement between Fatah and Hamas, and in March declared that Hamas had "surrendered most of Palestine to the Jews, sold the Palestinian issue, and sold shari'a in order to retain leadership of the Palestinian government." In June 2007 he called on Hamas to "correct your path." Just last week, the leading Jordanian jihadist theoretician Abu Mohammed al-Maqdisi (thanks to Will McCants) complained that "Hamas is misleading Muslims with its glittering slogans, which blind people to their wayward goals and strategies, leading them down the path of criminals... [and] Hamas started the bloodshed in Gaza several weeks ago when it killed members of the Army of Islam organization."

From al-Qaeda's perspective, therefore, Israel's assault on Gaza is an unmitigated blessing. The images flooding the Arab and world media have already discredited moderates, fueled outrage, and pushed the center of political gravity towards more hard-line and radical positions. As in past crises, Islamists of all stripes are outbidding each other, competing to "lead" the popular outrage, while "moderates" are silent or jumping on the bandwagon. Governments are under pressure, most people are glued to al-Jazeera's coverage (and, from what anyone can tell, ignoring stations that don't offer similar coverage), the internet is flooded with horrifying images, and people are angry and mobilized against Israel, the United States, and their own governments. That's the kind of world al-Qaeda likes to see.

Even if Hamas emerges weakened, as Israeli strategists hope, all the better (from al-Qaeda's point of view, that is). In general, where the [Muslim Brotherhood] is strong (Egypt, Jordan, and Palestine for example), AQ has had a hard time finding a point of entry despite serious efforts to do so, while where the MB is weak (Iraq, Saudi Arabia, Algeria, Lebanon) it has had more success. Up to now, AQ-minded groups have had little success in penetrating Gaza, because Hamas had it locked. Now they clearly have high hopes of finding an entree with a radicalized, devastated population and a weakened Hamas. . . .

Sidd Finch 01-09-2009 05:09 PM

Re: As Willard said to Kurtz.
 
Quote:

Originally Posted by Tyrone Slothrop (Post 376942)
If you read that account of the ambassador's performance and say to yourself, well, probably Israel has clear goals and a sound plan for how to achieve them, and just isn't saying, then you are more of an optimist than I am.

If that's what you think I'm saying to myself after you read my post --

"I suspect that there are a number of different potential goals that Israel wants to accomplish. Whether all of the key people have agreed on a set of goals is another question, but I too would hope that they would do so." --

then you are more in need of dumbing down than you seem to think I am.


Do you really think the only purpose anyone involved in deciding to launch this war had was to influence the upcoming Israeli election?

Tyrone Slothrop 01-09-2009 05:12 PM

Re: As Willard said to Kurtz.
 
Quote:

Originally Posted by Sidd Finch (Post 376946)
If that's what you think I'm saying to myself after you read my post --

"I suspect that there are a number of different potential goals that Israel wants to accomplish. Whether all of the key people have agreed on a set of goals is another question, but I too would hope that they would do so." --

then you are more in need of dumbing down than you seem to think I am.


Do you really think the only purpose anyone involved in deciding to launch this war had was to influence the upcoming Israeli election?

Of course not. But it's delusional to suggest it's not influencing things.

ThurgreedMarshall 01-09-2009 05:17 PM

Re: Madoff
 
Quote:

Originally Posted by Cletus Miller (Post 376937)
You may well be right, but the first couple days after this broke, there were a lot of smaller numbers flying around--$17B was the other number I saw or heard most often. And given that a lot of the money had been invested with him for many years, and been "growing" at 10-15% every year, wouldn't the total, if $50B was invested, have to be $70b or $80B? And if the investors' statements "totaled" $80B, wouldn't the media run with that larger number instead?

It looks like you are correct. I'm seeing numbers of $17B to $21B of "assets under management" and the $50B is the number related to liabilities. I guess the $7-$9B number that popped up (and was the amount he need to raise to keep the scheme going) was a direct result of the market crash and the desire of people to liquidate. I don't know why he was even trying to bring that much in. If I were him I would have ran as soon as the market started crashing.

TM

Tyrone Slothrop 01-09-2009 05:25 PM

If true, good news or bad news?
 
Quote:

McCreary, one of my "proven providers," thinks that Hamas is facing "strategic defeat" in Gaza, in part because Tehran is more interested in moving forward on developing nuclear weapons than it is in aiding its allies in Hamas.
Tom Ricks.

ThurgreedMarshall 01-09-2009 05:29 PM

SF Shooting
 
What's the scoop from the SF people? And anything more on this theory that the cop pulled his gun and fired, thinking it was his taser (which also doesn't make much sense after watching the video and seeing the guy on his stomach)?

TM

Adder 01-09-2009 05:39 PM

Re: SF Shooting
 
Quote:

Originally Posted by ThurgreedMarshall (Post 376953)
What's the scoop from the SF people? And anything more on this theory that the cop pulled his gun and fired, thinking it was his taser (which also doesn't make much sense after watching the video and seeing the guy on his stomach)?

TM

I actually thought the video made it look like the taser-confusion was a possibility. The cop certainly looked surprised and confused after shooting.
Granted the cop should have been criticized for taser the guy too, but it is less shocking to me that a cop would be that taser-happy than to think he would be that trigger happy.

LessinSF 01-09-2009 05:40 PM

Re: private
 
Quote:

Originally Posted by Mmmm, Burger (C.J.) (Post 376940)
Maybe Laura Bush prevailed upon Hillary, who knew all too well what could happen otherwise?

Damn, she even looks a lot like Laura:

http://upload.wikimedia.org/wikipedi...ey_highres.jpg

Gattigap 01-09-2009 05:42 PM

Re: SF Shooting
 
Quote:

Originally Posted by ThurgreedMarshall (Post 376953)
What's the scoop from the SF people? And anything more on this theory that the cop pulled his gun and fired, thinking it was his taser (which also doesn't make much sense after watching the video and seeing the guy on his stomach)?

TM

He thought the gun was his taser? Holy shit, that sounds like a lame excuse. How do you confuse the two?

LessinSF 01-09-2009 05:42 PM

Re: SF Shooting
 
Quote:

Originally Posted by ThurgreedMarshall (Post 376953)
What's the scoop from the SF people? And anything more on this theory that the cop pulled his gun and fired, thinking it was his taser (which also doesn't make much sense after watching the video and seeing the guy on his stomach)?

TM

BART police have said that the cops are trained to keep the taser located well away from the gun just to prevent this kind of confusion.

That said, I think the guy knew it was unjustifiable and that is why he resigned rather than give a statement. He is better insulated for his criminal defense trial, and BART probably is too.


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