| Mmmm, Burger (C.J.) |
07-20-2005 03:28 PM |
Here it comes...
Quote:
Originally posted by nononono
Okay, yes, like I said, memory is fuzzy. But my recollection is that at the initial screen you get a probability - 1 in 200 I think is "normal," but once you do the amnio they are actually looking at the chromosomes to see if a or b is missing/damaged/extra. A lot of people choose not to do an amnio, due to the risks (pretty much the 1/200 chance of an issue, across all OBs, which is why the "line" is often at that 1/200 mark), but instead will make a choice to keep moving forward based on that. Interestingly, I've had conversations with a lot of people who say they won't do the amnio/don't want to know because they intend to keep the baby. In my mind, whatever you're going to do with it, don't you want to know, at least to be ready for what you may be facing? I've never gotten a good answer to that.
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I've never quite understood the calculus here.
There's a risk that amnio will cause a miscarriage (I think it's ~1/300, but whatever). And there's a risk of birth defects (increasing with mom's age). When that risk is less than 1/300, then amnio is indicated.
But it's not a sensible comparison because it fails to acknowledge the costs of error. For example, I might value the cost of having a trisomic baby as even higher than losing a baby to miscarriage. (Or it might be the other way around) But the risk-risk comparison doesn't incorporate that at all. So I might be willing to take a 1/300 risk of miscarriage, just to ensure a 1/1000 chance that amutant won't be born.
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