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-   -   Pepper sprayed for public safety. (http://www.lawtalkers.com/forums/showthread.php?t=863)

Adder 12-18-2012 09:09 AM

Re: Really?
 
Quote:

Originally Posted by sebastian_dangerfield (Post 475714)
Obama's going to let the payroll tax cut expire? This is the worst possible compromise of all.

Just a wee bit of an exaggeration. Also, it takes two.

Quote:

How can one not understand this cut is perhaps the only one of those in play delivering 100 cents of consumer spending in the economy for every dollar of revenue conceded? .
Consumer spending? Highly doubtful.

ThurgreedMarshall 12-18-2012 09:29 AM

Re: Pepper sprayed for public safety.
 
Quote:

Originally Posted by LessinSF (Post 475711)
Spare me.

Spare you what, exactly?

TM

Icky Thump 12-18-2012 09:40 AM

Re: Pepper sprayed for public safety.
 
Quote:

Originally Posted by sebastian_dangerfield (Post 475713)
Neither my nor I are helicopter parents of any sort. We both work, and have lives.

It appears to me to be centered on a myth that one can remove all risk from a child's life, prevent a child from failure, micromanage the child into a top flight school, and by doing all these things, create an uber-successful kid. .

Not a myth. Truth. Take a look at the top public HSs and prep schools. This technique works. It isn't the only path (see me, ghetto HS, public college, decent private law school after a side trip) but is a path.

Adder 12-18-2012 09:55 AM

Re: Pepper sprayed for public safety.
 
Quote:

Originally Posted by Icky Thump (Post 475717)
Not a myth. Truth. Take a look at the top public HSs and prep schools. This technique works. It isn't the only path (see me, ghetto HS, public college, decent private law school after a side trip) but is a path.

I always have a visceral reaction to the idea that we can know what the top high schools are, or that there is necessarily even such a thing.

But perception begets reality, I guess.

sebastian_dangerfield 12-18-2012 12:00 PM

Re: Really?
 
Quote:

Originally Posted by Adder (Post 475715)
Just a wee bit of an exaggeration. Also, it takes two.

Consumer spending? Highly doubtful.

1. It is not an exaggeration. The people benefiting from that tax holiday have no choice but to spend. Sunsetting that one, while raising the increases to the $400k and up bracket looks to me like Obama bending over and saying, "Here, John - shove your dick right here."

Of course it takes two, but also of course, Boehner doesn't give a fuck about the economy, or the middle class. Obama is supposed to have their back here, and he's supposed to be the one showing some concern for what happens to the broader economy. Dropping the payroll tax holiday is economically insane. Doing it while moving the $250k line in the sand north $150k is slapping Joe Sixpack in the lips.

Many of us here may benefit from having that $250k line moved north. But that's short term. Those of us who get to have those tax concerns because we provide services to the middle class will get crushed if they remove the payroll tax holiday. It'll squeeze the middle class that much more and remove a ton of money from the economy. And no - it's not a wash. Getting to keep a few extra thousand one year does not make up for the losses caused by a recession going forward.

2. The average tax bite for the middle class will be $1000. That's god only know how many households each with on average $1000 less to spend. You think that might crater consumption... just a little bit?

Greedy,Greedy,Greedy 12-18-2012 12:04 PM

Re: Really?
 
Quote:

Originally Posted by sebastian_dangerfield (Post 475723)
1. It is not an exaggeration. The people benefiting from that tax holiday have no choice but to spend. Sunsetting that one, while raising the increases to the $400k and up bracket looks to me like Obama bending over and saying, "Here, John - shove your dick right here."

Of course it takes two, but also of course, Boehner doesn't give a fuck about the economy, or the middle class. Obama is supposed to have their back here, and he's supposed to be the one showing some concern for what happens to the broader economy. Dropping the payroll tax holiday is economically insane. Doing it while moving the $250k line in the sand north $150k is slapping Joe Sixpack in the lips.

Many of us here may benefit from having that $250k line moved north. But that's short term. Those of us who get to have those tax concerns because we provide services to the middle class will get crushed if they remove the payroll tax holiday. It'll squeeze the middle class that much more and remove a ton of money from the economy. And no - it's not a wash. Getting to keep a few extra thousand one year does not make up for the losses caused by a recession going forward.

2. The average tax bite for the middle class will be $1000. That's god only know how many households each with on average $1000 less to spend. You think that might crater consumption... just a little bit?

2. Sebby, let's hope Pelosi and Reid can help us out here.

Adder 12-18-2012 12:42 PM

Re: Really?
 
Quote:

Originally Posted by sebastian_dangerfield (Post 475723)
1. It is not an exaggeration.

Yes it is. There are worse possible compromises. Take, for example, an all spending cuts compromise. Or, for that matter, an all tax hike compromise.

Quote:

The people benefiting from that tax holiday have no choice but to spend.
How do you figure?


Quote:

2. The average tax bite for the middle class will be $1000. That's god only know how many households each with on average $1000 less to spend. You think that might crater consumption... just a little bit?
Oh, it's definitely not good.

Adder 12-18-2012 12:44 PM

Re: Really?
 
Quote:

Originally Posted by Greedy,Greedy,Greedy (Post 475724)
2. Sebby, let's hope Pelosi and Reid can help us out here.

Allegedly they are part of the problem, as they are reportedly hostile to the payroll tax holiday.

I'm not sure why, but perhaps they are concerned about a longer term threat to SS viability it might create? Just a guess.

sebastian_dangerfield 12-18-2012 02:19 PM

Re: Really?
 
Quote:

Yes it is. There are worse possible compromises. Take, for example, an all spending cuts compromise. Or, for that matter, an all tax hike compromise.
Among the realistic possibilities, there are not.

Quote:

How do you figure?
Fair enough. A substantial majority of taxpayers benefiting from the payroll tax holiday spend the money they'd otherwise be giving to Uncle Sam.

Quote:

Oh, it's definitely not good.
Actually, in a situation where wages are stagnant, and consumption is feebly recovering, it's pretty fucking awful. Coupling the removal of that tax holiday with a reprieve for everybody making between $250k and $400k - a substantial number of whom will just bank the money they're allowed to keep - is really taking a dump on the little guy.

Yeah, I know it sounds odd for me argue this point, but the numbers are the numbers. The best bang for your buck in terms of converting what would otherwise be tax revenues to consumer spending are holidays aimed at the middle class, not the upper middle class. Those with less have to spend, and so do. It isn't rocket science.

sebastian_dangerfield 12-18-2012 02:28 PM

Re: Really?
 
Quote:

Originally Posted by Adder (Post 475726)
Allegedly they are part of the problem, as they are reportedly hostile to the payroll tax holiday.

I'm not sure why, but perhaps they are concerned about a longer term threat to SS viability it might create? Just a guess.

I'd agree with that guess. They don't seem to grasp that a recession will do the same thing.

It'll also crater any belief the little guy has that things are getting better. My wife just gave her staff raises. Resumption of the 6.2% payroll tax is going to steal a nice chunk of that raise from these people.

Many workers don't understand what's going on in Washington right now. They just work to survive, and enjoy what little they can in a heavily stressed life. You want to really depress an already dejected workforce? Transfer a healthy portion of the raise they're supposed to see in January to Uncle Sam's coffers. (And see how popular that makes the Democrats, who always get blamed for tax increases, in the 2014 elections.)

Adder 12-18-2012 02:47 PM

Re: Really?
 
Quote:

Originally Posted by sebastian_dangerfield (Post 475728)
I'd agree with that guess. They don't seem to grasp that a recession will do the same thing.

It'll also crater any belief the little guy has that things are getting better. My wife just gave her staff raises. Resumption of the 6.2% payroll tax is going to steal a nice chunk of that raise from these people.

Many workers don't understand what's going on in Washington right now. They just work to survive, and enjoy what little they can in a heavily stressed life. You want to really depress an already dejected workforce? Transfer a healthy portion of the raise they're supposed to see in January to Uncle Sam's coffers. (And see how popular that makes the Democrats, who always get blamed for tax increases, in the 2014 elections.)

Sounds like we are pretty much on the same page, except that I think the macro impact is bad, but not quite as dire as you see it.

Gattigap 12-19-2012 11:00 AM

Re: Pepper sprayed for public safety.
 
http://talkingpointsmemo.com/images/...spider-man.jpg

President Obama pretends to be caught in Spider-Man's web while greeting a White House staffer's son.







No, there's no real point to this. It does amuse me, though.

Adder 12-19-2012 11:10 AM

Re: Pepper sprayed for public safety.
 
Quote:

Originally Posted by Gattigap (Post 475737)
http://talkingpointsmemo.com/images/...spider-man.jpg

President Obama pretends to be caught in Spider-Man's web while greeting a White House staffer's son.







No, there's no real point to this. It does amuse me, though.

What is that thing next to the dresser? And why is there a dresser just outside the Oval Office?

Greedy,Greedy,Greedy 12-19-2012 11:14 AM

Re: Pepper sprayed for public safety.
 
Quote:

Originally Posted by Gattigap (Post 475737)
http://talkingpointsmemo.com/images/...spider-man.jpg

President Obama pretends to be caught in Spider-Man's web while greeting a White House staffer's son.







No, there's no real point to this. It does amuse me, though.

And, he casts a shadow. Slave is going to call photoshoppe, just watch.

Sidd Finch 12-19-2012 11:14 AM

Re: Pepper sprayed for public safety.
 
Quote:

Originally Posted by Adder (Post 475738)
What is that thing next to the dresser? And why is there a dresser just outside the Oval Office?

Clinton kept condoms in it.


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