Re: Downward Departures for Gout
 

A "still running Trump" doesn't seem to care.

Re: Downward Departures for Gout
 

Pardoning Manafort entirely is like Clinton pardoning Marc Rich. Trump can't do that until after 2022 midterms. He can do a pardon on the Berman Jackson sentence however, with no political fallout. He's already been calling the Russia collusion case bullshit, so such a pardon would be consistent with his narrative. And he retains the cover of saying, "I made Manafort do his time for the real crimes he committed, not his plea on the Russia witch hunt which he was forced to take."

If Manafort only has to do the Ellis sentence, he's out in 31 months (.85 X 47 months - 9 mos. served already). If Trump leaves him to rot, Manafort might as well be a suicide bomber and offer up what he's so far been holding back.

Re: Downward Departures for Gout
 

There's something there. Or Manafort is bluffing Trump. Recall, Trump doesn't know the extent of what Manafort knows.

I think it's the former. Manafort is a long time political fixer. He's profited throughout his career by getting the nastiest possible information on opponents. There's no way he didn't set about to collect as much damaging info on Trump as possible, to use as insurance/leverage, as soon as he was indicted. And he'd know exactly where to get it.

Re: Downward Departures for Gout
 

I mean, it's not the point at all, but I think you're overestimating what the fallout would have been had Clinton done it before heading out the door.

I don't know why you think a pardon for the part of the case that is more directly related to Trump would be less controversial.

Not that he cares about consistency, but if it's bullshit, there's no need for a pardon. His base won't care, but everyone else will see it as the implicit admission that it is.

To whom do you think that matters?

Aside from there being nothing in it for him, and assuming there are Russians involved, other downsides beyond prosecution.

Re: Downward Departures for Gout
 

Damn. I never even thought of that shit. These guys are going to buy it in prison.

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=udoYs01WKQc

Re: Downward Departures for Gout
 

Because Manafort still does real time.

You always have to try to play to the broadest possible demographic. Even if you're a base-fixated freak like Trump.

I agree this might be the real reason Manafort is quiet. But he could go into witness protection if I he helps the FBI on some other cases involving money laundering, etc. The FBI would love any info it could get on Mogilveich's money laundering network.

Re: Downward Departures for Gout
 

He might face a Russian hit regardless of being a stand-up guy. Why take a chance? (Skip to 1:05): https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=YhUZaAYsaGU

Re: Downward Departures for Gout
 

good. better. https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=pVKm4xJdKyY

Re: Downward Departures for Gout
 

Political fallout? What political fallout? Who the fuck is going to jump off of Trump's bandwagon that's still on it at this point? He enjoys an 80%+ approval rating among Republicans. Every week there is a new low point for him. He's running a record fucking trade deficit after enacting the most boneheaded tariff policy ever. He's fucked our allies and destroyed our relationships with them. Everyone connected to him is either in jail, under indictment, or implicated in numerous crimes. He's made the rich richer by exploding the deficit and shit all over everyone else, including those in actual need of emergency assistance. He's blatantly racist in words and policy. He's a crude, ignorant clown who proves it every day. He is loyal to absolutely no one and has attempted to destroy any faith in every institution in this country.

You think he's worried about political fallout from a pardon? You must be crazy. The only thing this guy is afraid of is the tax evasion and money laundering he's been doing for decades being made public--oh, and the pee tape and whatever else Putin has on him.

TM

Re: Downward Departures for Gout
 

He won by the thinnest of margins. While everything you've said certainly does indicate he doesn't give a fuck, the math still dictates that he cannot afford to lose any voters in PA, MI, WI. Pardoning a tax cheat who fancied $15k ostrich jackets won't play well in the Rust Belt. If he did that and I were a D strategist, I'd kill him with commercials in those states highlighting Manafort's opulent lifestyle. I think Trump is smart enough to understand that risk.

Re: Downward Departures for Gout
 

No. He is absolutely not. There is no evidence of him being smart enough to understand anything. He lacks the capacity to see more than one move. It's one of three things: straight money-grab, pure ego-driven reaction, or straight jail avoidance. He lets that muppet Miller and Pence design his policy, which is why you think he cares about the base. He doesn't. They do. He only cares about the people who can destroy him (Putin) and whoever is in the room who adulates him. Once they're no longer in the room, they do. not. exist.

So don't mistake his wall promises or anything else for him trying to cater to his base. He's only pushing for it because his ego was bruised by those he respects (Hannity and Coulter).

He is completely empty. There's nothing there besides hate, greed, and narcissism.

TM

Re: Downward Departures for Gout
 

The voters of WI, MI, and PA can destroy him.

ETA: I think if he loses in 2020, which I think is a solid if not strong possibility, the investigations will peter out, as the Democrats and republicans will do a kumbaya moment and agree it's better to simply forget him forever than bother prosecuting him. But it's going to be a massive fucking headache for him, because he'll always be looking over his shoulder, ticking off the days of statutes of limitation. He stuck his foot in a massive pile of shit by winning the election and I suspect he believes the only way out of it is to win in 2020 and do another four years. (in this regard, the Presidency is a form of cosmic justice visiting Donald Trump. He's stuck with a horrible gig that's utterly mangled his world at the age of 73, and it's his own damn fault he's there.)

Re: Downward Departures for Gout
 

Again, he thinks those states are his. There isn't anyone in this world (except maybe Hannity) who can tell him otherwise. He is a moron.

I disagree. I think he's going down, especially if he loses. No need to impeach. Simply let the justice department do its thing. If the Democrats are going to ignore real (and serious) crimes in order to "heal," I'll lose my fucking mind.

TM

Re: Downward Departures for Gout
 

You're not going to like this: if he loses and is out of office, he should not be prosecuted for his political crimes (campaign finance, collusion, whatever else he did criminally to get into office). I'm worried about how easily abused prosecutions of former office holders/candidates would be and I think it's a good that there's no precedent of doing that. Of course, the remedy for these things is supposed to be impeachment...

Open season on all the other crimes his businesses and "foundation" did, though.

Re: Downward Departures for Gout
 

There are a lot of Democrats who feel this way and there aren't going to fewer of them after another 22 months of incessant corruption.