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Presumably because the point is a fair one that you're right to be just as worried in an airplane that your next breath could be your last as when you're driving.* Combined with the lack of control over your safety in an airplane (relatively--you're not driving, checking the oil, controlling the throttle), having a fear of flying isn't irrational. So, while Ty and Balt will determine that flying beats driving for their next lark/booty call, their heart should be racing regardless of which way they decide to travel.

In other words, there's no one "right" way to calculate the risk--rather, you have to assess the risk in light of the question you're asking. Which are two different things here.




*Of course, airplanes don't usually fall out of the sky--it's the landings and takeoffs that get you.

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An hour in the air might be equally as safe as an hour in the car, but even if that's true, it would be safer to fly from Philadelphia to Miami than to drive because the trip would be so much faster.

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People are more scared about new and different risks than they are about familiar risks. E.g., people are more worried about being killed by a stranger even though they're statistically much more threatened by people they know. West Nile Virus gets the press, but there are other diseases much more likely to get you. Presumably this was point that professor was trying to make about 9/11.

Whether this is rational or not is an interesting question.

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Plus, you wouldn't encounter old jewish drivers flying.

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About a month after 9/11 we went into the city of Detroit to see David Sedaris read at a concert hall. That month i was looking at every plane flying overhead as about to drop out of the sky or spray me with anthrax. Nameless fear of unknown attack.

We parked several blocks away and were walking along a poorly lit street when we passed a group of tough looking young men. It was sort of refreshing to get back to a fear of something I couold actually understand and anticipate.

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I just pretend to be afraid so I can get the Zipless Fuck.

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DETROIT (Reuters) - Local television flashed grisly images of the latest bombing victims as the anchor told viewers their squabbling leaders would stabilize the city, in words that could only be termed reassuring in
Detroit's chaos.

"It is a dialogue. They did not pull out guns and shoot each other," said the anchor on the local NBC affiliate, referring to politicians struggling to reach political consensus.

Hours before they resumed negotiations, three car bombs killed at least 43 people and wounded 76 in an attack on a Detroit bus station in morning rush hour, stepping up pressure on politicians to deliver on promises of security.

Local TV quickly broadcast a call-in show, inviting residents to respond to "the ugly terrorist crime" while broadcasting images of the latest carnage during morning programming.

"This is a difficult test. We have to ask who they are (the bombers) and what they want," said city government spokesman William Smith, one of the callers.

But Detroiters are in no mood for questions. They want decisive action from a government paralyzed by sectarian and ethnic divisions holding up efforts to reach consensus.

"These men that kill 100, 50 and 70 men a day -- have they been put to death," said a caller named Richard Wilkins. "How many have been put to death? How many? The government is supposed to represent the people. All I hear is we will do this and we will do that."

Frustrated Detroiters were bombarded with footage of bloodied bodies and policemen standing in emergency rooms that have treated hundreds of bombing victims.

"When will Michigan blood stop being spilled?" asked Susan Lewis.

SECURITY FORCES

Between calls and comments, local TV showed footage of Detroit's new security forces crawling under barbed wire and practicing martial arts.

Such images have done little to ease anxiety in a city where guerrilla bombings have killed thousands of security forces and civilians.

The show's anchor interrupted the program for a breaking news announcement that four men suspected of involvement in the bus station bombing had been captured.

"I call on the government to try these men on television," said a caller.

Some Detroit residents say they are taking the law into their own hands in a city plagued by criminal gangs.

In one neighborhood in Baghdad, militiamen pulled a man from the trunk of a car and shot him and two women, saying they were running a prostitution ring, witnesses said on Wednesday.

Angry callers yelled while officials sat at the negotiating table again after failing to meet an August 15 deadline.

"Instead of Coleman Young we now have thousands of Colemans," he fumed.

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Try this. Spank's number do put perspective on the war. Maybe he should have argue this:

We're shocked by, and some argue the war is not worth, 25 dead Americans each month.

Each big city in the US has 15-30 people murdered each month. That we have learned to live with.

If fighting the war is otherwise worthwhile, look at it like all Bush has done is effectively created a new "american" urban center where we accept the 25 deaths. If you truly are bothered by the deaths, how can you not go into our cities and spend your time working to keep kids from killing each other?

Ty, wouldn't society be better off if you logged off the blogs and spent your time in Oakland working anti-gang programs? Maybe you could form a guts Frisbee league.

the latest news from Michigan
 

We have a new bad mayor. Coleman has passed.

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I don't think it's familiarity. I've never been in a car wreck or a plane crash. But I know about both. I fear driving less because (like 90% of the world) I'm an above average driver, so can avoid accidents. In seriousness, I am above average merely because I'm no longer 18; not so for planes.

BTW, who's taking their kid out of the child seat at 2?

http://www.freakonomics.com/2005_07_01_archive.html (scroll down)

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I'm sure this will be a popular email with people who already agree with you.

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I don't think most people would object to the death toll of U.S. soldiers and marines in Iraq if, e.g., they were dying to defend our country.

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And I'm still not sure how realtors are like the KKK.

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No, he was implying that flying isn't safer than driving by using a measurement that sounds good, but is actually irrelevant.

No one should be concerned whether killing time in a plane is safer than killing time in a car (i.e. I need to kill three hours, should I drive to Pittsburgh or fly to Denver). People should be concerned about the risks presented by getting from point A to point B, and whether one method has, over that distance, a greater or lesser risk.

It's the kind of crap economists pull all the time, and since the book its basically a 300 page bitchfest on the inappropriateness of such slight of hand, it is especially shameful.

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Given that it's cribbed from an email that made the freeper rounds in late 2004, they've likely already seen it. For example, the Iraq Survey Group has already disbanded, so we're done looking for WMDs/evidence of WMDs/evidence of WMD programs/evidence of intent to restart WMD programs someday in Iraq.

Oh, and Truman didn't start the war in Korea. We went there as part of the UN coalition. I know this from endless M*A*S*H reruns.

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The proper place for a child in a car is as a steering column pad.

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Oh, yeah Al Qeeeda is really crippled.

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Best post ever. Ty, you lose.

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The letter about car seats is an obvious fraud.

They were contracted to analyze accident data for NHTSA to retrospectively estimate the benefits obtained from the FMVSS rules (mostly the 1973 rules). The analyses were being performed in the 1978-1980 time window (mostly 1979). One of the items for evaluation was child safety seats. We evaluated child seat performance based on the child seats implicit to usage in that era and found that car seat belts were more effective for children and infants

I never saw a car seat until the 1990s. I never saw a shoulder belt until the mid to late eighties. And even if car seats were in existence would there be enough retrospective data in 1979?

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January of what year? Right, 2004. At that time, the murder rate in the US was 5.6 murders for every 100,000 people. With 130,000 troops deployed in Iraq in January 2004, that put the death rate for US soldiers in Iraq at 29.8 for every 100,000 soldiers.

In 1940, before Japan had ever attacked us, German U-boats attacked American shipping on the following dates:

• Sept. 11- US freighter "Montana" sunk en route to Iceland;
  Sept. 19 - armed US-Panama freighter "Pink Star" sunk en route to Iceland with cargo of food;
  Sept. 27 - US-Panamanian oil tanker "I.C. White" sunk en route to South Africa;
  Oct. 16 - US tanker "W.C. Teagle" sunk and U.S.-Panama freighter "Bold Venture" sunk;
  Oct. 17 - US destroyer "Kearny" torpedoed and damaged with 11 killed inside Security Zone;
  Oct. 19 - U.S. freighter "Lehigh" sunk in South Atlantic;
  Oct. 30 - U.S.-Panama armed tanker "Salinas" torpedoed and damaged;
  Oct. 31 - U.S. destroyer "Reuben James" sunk inside Security Zone, 115 killed

As I noted above, we went when we were asked to be part of the UN coalition forces. N. Korea invaded S. Korea; Truman started nothing.

Kennedy took office in 1961.

• In 1945: First American Dies in Vietnam : Lt. Col. A. Peter Dewey, head of American OSS mission, was killed by Vietminh troops while driving a jeep to the airport.
  1957: Terrorist Bombings Rock Saigon : Thirteen Americans working for MAAG and US Information Service are wounded in terrorist bombings in Saigon.
  1959: US Servicemen Killed in Guerilla Attack: Major Dale R. Buis and Master Sargeant Chester M. Ovnand die in the Vietnam War when guerillas strike at Bienhoa.

Clinton went to Bosnia as part of a NATO force, designed since the 40’s to stop wars in Europe. NATO’s intervention stopped the Balkan conflict. There were zero American combat related killings.

The Taliban is back, Iraq is a mess, al-Quaeda introduced themselves to Londoners, Iran has restarted their nuke programs, and what nuclear inspectors in N. Korea? But hey - we did get Saddam.

This is stupid. It should be in the dictionary under "non-sequitur".

This is even stupider. Did you read this before you cut-and-pasted it?

Aaargh!

But Penske says it's the best post ever. And Penske is an honorable man.

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Why? What happened?

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exactly. Like all of these arguments, that is really the only point that matters in how peole reach their conclusions (with the exception of 30% of your side that truly believes that a passive response to all bad is the best response)

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I don't think I'd fuck a man who thought he was about to die. I really can't believe you'd be thinking about MY pleasure racing the grim reaper to get your own pop in.

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I did a double take with that Avatar.

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By the way, Germany declared war on us. But presumably when Hitler did this, it was somehow FDR's fault.

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As with so many of your posts, I have no idea what I said that you think you're responding to.

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True, but FDR was also supplying the Brits, so Hitler's declaration was not out of left field.

spanky!
 

delete the PM's in your mailbox that you don't need to save.

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So what's your beef with FDR?

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My point was that whether one thinks the problems in Iraq are bad is really decided by whether one thinks there is a reason to have gone there. To you 1 dead soldier is not worth it since you don't think we should have gone.

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I have gone so far as responding to it the whole time thinking it was Paigow and then only realizing my mistake a long time after.

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Since I told Spanky this morning that the reason it's a quagmire is not the death toll, but the insurgency and the poor prospects for Iraq's future, you are doing a fine job of restating the obvious.

But you can think that the toll in American lives would have been worth it in some circumstances, and yet think that the current situation is a clusterfuck. One question now is, how do we make the best of a lousy situation? Pretending that Baghdad is just like Detroit is probably not the best way to go.

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People pay Spanky for his political analysis and include him in conferecne calls to plan policy. Contrast- i think I'm the only one who posts comments on your blog. Maybe you should spend a bit more time reading his stuff and thinking why he might be right.

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I got a big heap of comment spam last night, but I was assuming that wasn't you.

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mmmmmSpam oh and eggs mmmmmmmmmmm-

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I appreciate the vote of confidence however I don't think I am a policy expert. I give political strategic (making me sort of a Karl Rove wantabe) advice and I raise money. Politicians often ask me for policy advice assuming that since I understand political strategy I must also understand policy. That is a common misconception. Unless they ask me about economic and trade issues I tell them I am not qualified to help. Here I spout off my policy opinions because here I don't think they can do much damage and its fun. However, before I would presume to offer advice to a politician on most of the issues discussed here I would do a lot more research.

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A bit of that humble respect for the boundaries of one's knowledge areas would be a good gift for someone to give Ty.

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Don't you have a viking avatar somewhere?

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This reads like Bob Dylan's poetry.

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I try to acknowledge when I find your posts incomprehensible, and only decline to do it more often out of fear of complaints.