Re: I used to be disgusted, and now I try to be amused.
 

I'm stealing this for a discussion on a different forum.

Re: I used to be disgusted, and now I try to be amused.
 

I think Eugene Volokh has your proxy - https://www.washingtonpost.com/news/...ican-politics/

Re: I used to be disgusted, and now I try to be amused.
 

Or:

http://imgc-cn.artprintimages.com/im...er-cartoon.jpg

Re: I used to be disgusted, and now I try to be amused.
 

Umm, what?

Re: I used to be disgusted, and now I try to be amused.
 

I see the title, but there is nothing under it. Is that the joke or were you actually trying to offer some substance instead of being obtusely provocative for once?

TM

Re: I used to be disgusted, and now I try to be amused.
 

So, in thinking this way, doesn't it make more sense to blame a Trump victory on the African American and other Democratic constituencies who didn't vote this year, than on a few Libertarian voters in a swing state? And then isn't Hillary primarily to blame for not getting out the vote or inspiring voters to come out for her, or visiting Wisconsin, or any other minor things that could have changed the outcome?

Re: I used to be disgusted, and now I try to be amused.
 

I agree with all of this. That said, Democrats haven't been able to deliver for their constituents for six years because of Republican obstructionism, and they haven't found a way to make Republicans pay a price for that obstructionism. Obama couldn't do it, and Hillary didn't try.

I've already said a few things about where I think Hillary went wrong, but saying that she is "primarily to blame" is nuts, and lets the people who actually voted for Trump (or for a third-party candidate) off the hook.

Re: I used to be disgusted, and now I try to be amused.
 

It's not on the third party voters. And it's not on the people of color, whom your party (sorry, former) went to great lengths to prevent from voting.

It's on the white people who showed up to vote for the racist.

And yeah, to some degree it's on Hillary for not getting out more of her coalition.

Re: I used to be disgusted, and now I try to be amused.
 

Obama did manage to save the auto industry; I know some think it was not a great idea, I think we've had that discussion with Hank before. And he did manage to insure a broad swath of the uninsured. But the first is forgotten and the second was turned into a liability by the obstructionists.

Re: I used to be disgusted, and now I try to be amused.
 

Bingo. A lot of the "white working class" issues aren't economic, they're race and religion. And guns, which is a cultural issue.

Re: I used to be disgusted, and now I try to be amused.
 

I'd change what he says - swing voters are a smaller group than most people think, and they tend to be swing for 2 or 3 elections and then they're swung.

But in a 50/50 society, a small number of swing voters is absolutely critical. The two biggest metrics out there are how you do among swings and how you do on turnout.

Re: I used to be disgusted, and now I try to be amused.
 

Oh they're all on the blame list. The circular firing squad is taking lots and lots of shots today.

Re: I used to be disgusted, and now I try to be amused.
 

I saw a stat 33% of Latino men voted for Trump. nwtaf?

Re: I used to be disgusted, and now I try to be amused.
 

Re the exchange about the bigotry (or lack thereof) of Trump supporters, Peter Beinert (lots of links omitted):

Re: I used to be disgusted, and now I try to be amused.
 

That's the point. He doesn't understand American politics - nuff said. I don't (I lost a bet with Slave where I picked Clinton win by over 100 electoral votes). And you don't.

All your rational points didn't matter. Trump trumped logic. And it wasn't misogyny. 45% of college-educated white women voted for Trump. 64% of non-college educated white women voted for Trump.

This Brit points out how American liberals, pundits and press didn't understand American politics - https://www.theguardian.com/commenti...inton-liberals .

Michael Moore, however, did understand American politics - http://www.salon.com/2016/10/26/mich...-and-hell-win/

Re: I used to be disgusted, and now I try to be amused.
 

You're the second person to state this non-sequitur today. Why do you think winning white women suggests that misogyny is not in play?

White women are funny capable of getting on board with misogyny.

Re: I used to be disgusted, and now I try to be amused.
 

That's because people in this country cannot hear a fucking thing beyond:

• Respect the flag
• Love it or leave it
• Muslims are dangerous
• Immigrants are dangerous and are taking our jobs
• Taxes suck
• Black people are dangerous
• All politicians are equally bad and are responsible for everything
• Obamacare sucks

Any argument that is as nuanced as "Republicans are blocking bills that will help you, you fucking idiot," is translated into the seventh bullet point above. There is no such thing as an effective message outside of the bullshit I've just listed because our electorate is made up of small-minded, uneducated, idiots who aren't interested in facts at all.

TM

Re: I used to be disgusted, and now I try to be amused.
 

I find the Thomas Frank article to be pretty fucking ridiculous.

"The even larger problem is that there is a kind of chronic complacency that has been rotting American liberalism for years, a hubris that tells Democrats they need do nothing different, they need deliver nothing really to anyone – except their friends on the Google jet and those nice people at Goldman. The rest of us are treated as though we have nowhere else to go and no role to play except to vote enthusiastically on the grounds that these Democrats are the “last thing standing” between us and the end of the world. It is a liberalism of the rich, it has failed the middle class, and now it has failed on its own terms of electability. Enough with these comfortable Democrats and their cozy Washington system. Enough with Clintonism and its prideful air of professional-class virtue. Enough!"

This is just bullshit. There is plenty that Democrats have done and want to do but have been prevented from doing by the party that just won. It's not chronic fucking complacency. It's right wing obstruction at every level. The fact that he doesn't have room in this opinion piece for that makes his opinion a joke.

Moore's argument that people wanted to deliver a big fuck you to the establishment in the form of Donald Trump may translate as a deep understanding of our completely uninformed electorate, but it doesn't address the fact that the reason they want to issue a huge fuck you is the fact that they are completely uninformed. Trump is going to lay a tariff on cars that are built out of the country? Great! That will save the auto industry. Ford will produce cars at twice the price that can't compete with anything foreign. That's sure to keep these jobs in the country! It's complete fucking nonsense.

If the argument is "Telling the people what they want to hear even if it's fucking gobbledygook that can never ever happen or outright racist bullshit," then yeah. I suppose the Democrats didn't understand American politics.

TM

Re: I used to be disgusted, and now I try to be amused.
 

I forgot Nate Silver.

Re: I used to be disgusted, and now I try to be amused.
 

There is an old and difficult tension in union and Democratic party circles that is easiest to see in the statement "X are taking our jobs". It's number 4 on your list, but it hasn't just been immigrants - it's also African-Americans, the south, the Chinese, really anyone other than whites, and the presupposition is that those jobs somehow below to certain people and not others.

The other side of the argument is pretty simple: "workers of the world unite". Simple and catchy but doesn't have a big following these days.

For the most part, Bernie was closer to the first category in his economics and social policy, Hill the second.

These tensions will never be resolved and will always cost Dems votes. Over many, many years, with a lot of tension and a lot of work, Dems and unions developed a sort of consensus compromise that worked, but most of the working class is no longer unionized and doesn't buy into that consensus any more.

Re: I used to be disgusted, and now I try to be amused.
 

A long time back in this election I said my biggest worry was where the white women were at.

It's a big, big worry. They're in a better place than the white male demographic, but still not a good place.

Re: I used to be disgusted, and now I try to be amused.
 

He may have had the worst night of anyone. Why would I ever visit his site again?

TM

Re: I used to be disgusted, and now I try to be amused.
 

I just talked to a co-worker, a college-educated white woman and a friend, who explained that she couldn't vote for Hillary because she didn't dump Bill after he humiliated her. World leaders wouldn't respect her. What about Trump, I said, he's cheated on every wife and treats women like shit. True, she said, but he's the one doing the cheating, and she wouldn't vote for Melania.

I don't want to argue about what misogyny means, but even if 45% of college-educated white women voted for Trump, that hardly means there isn't a lot of misogyny out there.

Re: I used to be disgusted, and now I try to be amused.
 

I wasn't paying close attention, but I thought he did better than most.

Good news, Sebby
 

Trump is starting to load up on those smart people you said he'd pick for his cabinet. Let's start with a healthy dose of climate change skepticism for the EPA. Next we'll move to Giuliani as FBI Director and Christie as AG. What should we give Newt? Whatever he wants, I'm sure.

https://www.scientificamerican.com/a...pa-transition/

TM

Re: I used to be disgusted, and now I try to be amused.
 

Uh...not when it came to the Presidency. Up, down, he's winning, she's winning, no he's winning. Granted, I don't think a poll exists off of which he builds his model that was correct, but if that's the case, he's as useless as a Fox flash poll.

TM

Re: I used to be disgusted, and now I try to be amused.
 

The polls were wrong, so his model based on polls was wrong. But he had much higher chances of Trump winning, because (he said) the polls could be wrong in a systemic way. And he was right. Just about everyone else said Trump was less likely to win.

Re: I used to be disgusted, and now I try to be amused.
 

Am I on ignore? I've been posting realclearpolitics for weeks saying it was a toss up, and wondering how 538 could have the odds it was saying.


Maybe each poll was wrong but the average was spot on.

Re: I used to be disgusted, and now I try to be amused.
 

In hindsight, there's absolutely no way to tell whether a 50-50 or 67-33 prediction was more accurate. To me, those numbers are just indicators.

Re: I used to be disgusted, and now I try to be amused.
 

My telling Sebby Pa was a toss up and Hil was one state away from losing was the same as 538 saying "Hil 70%?"

Okay.

RCP was spot on.

Re: I used to be disgusted, and now I try to be amused.
 

???

I'm not sure why what you're saying doesn't mean he's useless to me. I already said a model built off of faulty polling is useless. What possible difference does it make that he said she had a 72% chance of winning going into Tuesday than if some other poll watcher said she had a 80% chance? Both are useless.

TM

Re: I used to be disgusted, and now I try to be amused.
 

Where is ty@50 when we need him?

Re: I used to be disgusted, and now I try to be amused.
 

You said he had the worst night of anyone. He had a better night than just about anyone else who was polling or aggregating polls. Hank says RCP did even better, though.

Re: I used to be disgusted, and now I try to be amused.
 

I think Florida's numbers compared to other states are a pretty good illustration that there were large generational divides among white women's votes. I haven't seen a full breakdown and frankly I can't devote any more time today to election post-mortem, but based on numbers coming in last night from Florida, the Boomer college-educated women did not come out for Hillary. I don't know for sure why, but I bet at least some of it comes back to the 1990's (and, even if some of you don't believe in it, woman-on-woman sexism, which has always been a thing).

The big blue map that's been making the rounds with totals from younger voters does give me some hope for the future. And right now that's the best thing I can say*, because otherwise I'm pretty despondent.

* Well, also, selfishly I'm saying "Thank God I live in a fiercely blue city in a fiercely blue state." I'm worried about so many people who are not so fortunate.

Re: I used to be disgusted, and now I try to be amused.
 

My first (and probably only) post on this board.

This morning my mother, a lifelong Republican, texted me "I feel like somebody just threw up on me and I can't wash it off for 4 years."

I can't express my feelings any better than that.

Re: I used to be disgusted, and now I try to be amused.
 

We need a new Voting Rights Act, but you'll see Republicans push things in the opposite direction.

https://pbs.twimg.com/media/Cw14f8IWQAA8kFE.jpg

Re: I used to be disgusted, and now I try to be amused.
 

Yes. This is why you lost. Get on that an everything will go swimmingly next time.

Re: I used to be disgusted, and now I try to be amused.
 

You were indeed correct. And you had .00000000% chance of having me change my vote.

Re: I used to be disgusted, and now I try to be amused.
 

(1) Whether or not it's why Democrats lost, it's wrong, and something should be done.

(2) More people in this country voted with me for Hillary than for Trump, but the Electoral College makes other people's votes count less and mine count more. I understand the arguments for it, but mostly it persists because other people like that people like me have votes that count less.

(3) You lost too, but maybe you haven't figured it out yet.

Re: I used to be disgusted, and now I try to be amused.
 

Yes. It is wrong. But raising it now makes you sound a bit like Paul Krugman on Twitter. And raising the electoral college complaint is junior varsity.

Nobody lost or won yet. These things play out over a long time. And any scenario can be navigated for gain. I don't like Trump's law and order stuff. Troubles me. And I know I won't see justice reform with dickheads like Christie and Rudy in the mix. But I wouldn't have seen it with Hillary either. She was for sale.

That sucks.

But I'll focus on the positive. Less chance of Neocon interventionism is good. And infrastructure. Recall, this is a conservative Democrat in GOP clothing. I think he can surprise to the upside.