What elephant?
 

I travel between NY and DC a fair amount. It is neither controversial nor inaccurate to note that Philly and Baltimore, and Wilmington (don't forget it just because it's in DE) are in large part blighted cities.

Philly has enjoyed a resurgence of sorts, but NE Philly is a quasi-slum and West Philly remains dangerous. And portions of North Philly aren't even frequented by police. Baltimore is like Philly on steroids. Where at least the downtown of Philly has some development which is spreading out into surrounding neighborhoods, Baltimore remains quite challenged. And Wilmington is just a dead, decrepit city ringed by nice suburbs, 1/4 of which are inhabited by DuPonts.

Anyway, if you travel these cities regularly, the above is not at all an offensive thing to say. You can say it to people who live there and they'll generally agree.

Now, of course, Trump's comment about rats is a dog whistle. And he should be criticized for it. But why make this a discussion about him? He's just saying incendiary shit as he always does.

Why not discuss the fact that, yes, those three cities, and many other Mid Atlantic cities are, in significant part, disasters? There are numerous reasons for this, including a mix of lost jobs, redlining, white flight, affluent flight, bad tax policies, etc.

I don't expect anything useful to some out of this moment. It's a political football. But it'd be pretty awesome if somebody made a list of the five or ten big reasons Baltimore is where it is, gave that list to the candidates before the next debate, and asked each how they'd go about fixing Baltimore. I'd like to hear that. And not some bullshit about education or economic development like Baltimore's inner harbor (tourist dollars aren't a fix).

Philly is attempting to tackle some of its blight by allowing people in bad neighborhoods to take empty properties via adverse possession more quickly. Used to take 21 years. Now, if you are in a row home and take care of it for ten years (as a squatter, or a guy who lost it in foreclosure but hasn't been evicted), it's yours. This puts properties back on the tax rolls and attracts people to otherwise undesirable neighborhoods. It's akin to debt forgiveness -- giving people something without outlay of hard dollars, and making money off the investment in the future in the form of tax dollars. Baltimore should do something like that.

Instead, we'll hear about Trump. And Baltimore will rust.

Re: What elephant?
 

You're attempting to make lemonade out of lemons, which is fine, but best to know what you are doing. Those tweets, of course, weren't really about Baltimore per se.

Having a discussion on urban policies is a great thing. I live in a phenomenally successful city, one that has been blessed with everything needed to make it work in the 21st century, and still there are two huge problems facing our economy (forget about non-economic problems for a minute): (1) infrastructure, especially transportation infrastructure, was built for an earlier time and has enormous deferred maintenance, and (2) the economic segregation of some areas, especially majority African American and Hispanic neighborhoods in the city and increasingly working class white towns and cities around the city. These are huge problems, they require funds in the many billions of dollars to address in just one urban area. We're talking, in Boston, a $10 to $15 billion capital investment need for the subway system alone.

Re: Doesn’t Matter Who Wins the K Race; We’re All the Same
 

I think you're an idiot who says idiotic things and doesn't even notice when no one is engaging with them and yet keeps prattling off more idiocy.

Re: Doesn’t Matter Who Wins the K Race; We’re All the Same
 

This all day long.

Re: Doesn’t Matter Who Wins the K Race; We’re All the Same
 

No it isn't, but I see that won't stop you from arguing that point as if anyone here (or anyone else besides the few people you've selected in your head represent the entire Democratic Party) has made it.

TM

Re: I'm on a roll
 

I completely disagree.

I do not understand why people can't take into account the ridiculously insane set of circumstances that occurred the last time around (most importantly, Comey fucking everything up right before the election) combined with the utter and complete failure and threat to democracy Trump has turned out to be.

You keep acting like the 35-40% of this country that is irredeemably racist is who anyone is trying to convince. Fuck those people. Those people are fucking gone. They would vote for Hitler if he reincarnated himself as a Republican.

It's the other white people who matter. The ones in Michigan, Ohio, and Pennsylvania, and all of the others just like them who thought they couldn't vote for Hillary or felt like having a black President was just a bit much. They're the ones that need to flip or actually come out and vote against Trump. Everyone else is already energized. I don't want to hear about the young, and women, and blacks, and Latinx, and LGBT. If they can't get excited about voting against this fucking lunatic, Bernie, Mayor Pete or Kamala Harris ain't gonna fucking get them over the hump.

So whether Biden gaffs here and there during his run makes absolutely no difference. Trump says out-and-out crazy, racist shit constantly. If you don't vote for Biden (or against Trump) because Biden accidentally puts his foot in his mouth, you are fatally fucking stupid and there is no candidate that will work.

TM

Re: Doesn’t Matter Who Wins the K Race; We’re All the Same
 

You and I are in vigorous agreement.

TM

Re: Doesn’t Matter Who Wins the K Race; We’re All the Same
 

I've been watching Biden fuck up his elections for a long time. He's kind of like the Red Sox back before they actually won a World Series - always really great on paper, but you knew they were going to choke, and the only question was how. And every year they did.

Whatever you do, don't overestimate Joe Biden.

Yes, White people are going to be key. But there are a lot of white folks out there who were a lot happier to vote for Obama than they will be to vote for Biden. Because he was an exciting candidate.

I'm going to let the primary run its course, and closer in figure out who to vote for; I'm saving my resources for the general.

Re: Doesn’t Matter Who Wins the K Race; We’re All the Same
 

WHICH Democrats? If immigrants, blacks, Latinx, LGBT, women, and whoever the fuck else aren't motivated by saving their own fucking existences, you think Kamala is going to get them to turn out?

Jesus Christ. This is insane.

TM

Re: What elephant?
 

A new new deal or some form of public/private infra, or both at once, is needed. You’re in a successful city. The infra in and around Philly and Baltimore is simply atrocious. I mean, approaching third world.

The economic segregation is way trickier to fix. I don’t know how you do that exactly, but I do know that NE Philly is filled with low end labor (working class area) that would benefit from infra spending. So perhaps the fix for infra is a large part of the fix for economic disparity between neighborhoods within cities.

Re: Doesn’t Matter Who Wins the K Race; We’re All the Same
 

You are blurring the line between the general ignorance of the US voting public and yourself. But I'm not going to explain to you what you can easily read for yourself.

TM

Re: Doesn’t Matter Who Wins the K Race; We’re All the Same
 

She’s already having difficulty with progressives. He’s going to call her “Corporate Kamala” and the difficulty will double. I don’t see populist Bernie or Warren followers pivoting to her.

Re: Doesn’t Matter Who Wins the K Race; We’re All the Same
 

Because I don't have a candidate yet, I'm just asking lots of questions of different people. I had an interesting dinner with two old friends, one a Chinese American lawyer who is very active in Asian-American political issues and organizations nationally and another who is an Indian-American entrepreneur and immigrant. The lawyer friend is really charged up about Kamala, and thinks she can excite all the communities he's involved with, loves see her speak, is fully on board. He'd say, yes, if you give her a mic, and let her have the stage a little, you'll see she has the ability to reach all those folks. The entrepreneur likes her quite a lot but is worried about whether she can win; he said, if she is the Democrats candidates Indian-Americans and immigrants everywhere will be really excited, but he's not going to believe it until it happens.

Me, I see no harm in letting it play out for the next few months. I'd have to say I really don't know yet and any analysis is really a bit premature now.

Re: Doesn’t Matter Who Wins the K Race; We’re All the Same
 

Dude, you are comparing apples to oranges.

I do not disagree with you that historically, Biden has been largely "enh" as a Presidential candidate. But applying that analysis to this election makes absolutely no sense. Fuck, "gaffs" no longer have the impact they once did. If he gets through the primary (and he will because no matter which other candidate has the loudest fans, the Democratic base is the Democratic base, as Bernie found out in 2016), he crushes Trump.

1. You skip over the fact that working class whites love him. He polls absolutely great with them.
2. Obama chose him for a reason. Yes, we all were energized by Obama who is a fantastic orator. But he put Biden on the ticket to help him with the exact demo that is so important this election.
3. Biden has been unbelievably successful in his state, so it's not like he isn't a successful politician.
4. He's got a great story (son who died) and the legitimacy of serving with and the support of Obama.
5. How can Biden, after he wins the nomination, be any worse of a candidate than Trump? I realize that the press will blow up his silly mistakes and ignore Trump's complete fucking insanity. But come on. You think that Biden putting his foot in his mouth will do worse than a black woman or a gay man with white Christian and/or blue collar voters in key states? Again, all "other" people are voting for their fucking lives. Biden is still polling higher among blacks than any other Dem. Inspiring some dumbass Bernie voters who would have stayed home to pout isn't going to be the difference in this election.

TM

Re: What elephant?
 

It's very frustrating here, because we desperately need, for example, computer programmers, doctors, and nurses, yet the only one of those three areas that is successfully reaching in and hiring from the parts of the city with higher unemployment is nurses. Breaking down the racial and class barriers in tech and medicine would really help everyone, and yet....

Re: What elephant?
 

The Wire was fiction I suppose, but written by someone who knows the city’s problems. The over arching point being, our cities are pretty fucked. And the system is stacked against anyone trying to change it.

Where the gov is now don’t hold your breath.

On the other hand Detroit has had major development. I think a few local business people invested and started it, but downtown D today is probably busier than it was in the 50’s. Still there are huge parts that remain really fucked up.

Re: Doesn’t Matter Who Wins the K Race; We’re All the Same
 

Did you ask these people if they thought anyone they know in those communities would stay home this election if they didn't get their way? Because that's all I'm saying. The difference between the number of voters in the demographics you mentioned (i) who are excited about (or who can be excited by) Kamala and (ii) those who will absolutely vote to stop our country from going over a cliff and destroying every single vulnerable community is negligible. That's the point.

And I disagree with the "no harm in letting this play out." Those days are over. The more everyone tries to destroy the Democratic front runner (and Bernie has already proven that he is absolutely not a team player--even after he knows he has no chance) during the primary, the weaker the fucking candidate we put up. We should have no more than 3 or 4 candidates at this point. The Party looks like a fucking clown car.

TM

Re: Doesn’t Matter Who Wins the K Race; We’re All the Same
 

So far, I haven't seen Biden attract the kind of support around the white working class here that was once owned by, say, Ted Kennedy, or the kind of support among my upstate NY working class family members once held by Clinton. And you know, some of them actually like Buttigieg, I've heard stuff like, yeah, we had a gay guy in my unit in Iraq, he was ok. I think his working class support is actually kind of weak.

His support in the African-American community seems stronger right now.

And, yes, running two bad national campaigns still counts this cycle, because a lot of it is about who you hire, the advice of people in your kitchen cabinet, the depth of loyalty to you. This time he does also have a significant portion of both Obama's and Clinton's teams on board with him, and that should help him out, but don't put all your eggs in his baskets until he gets tested out there some more.

I'm not even talking about Bernie as a possible candidate, let's just bash him until he goes away, the sooner, the better.

Re: Doesn’t Matter Who Wins the K Race; We’re All the Same
 

The Party looks like an open organization that has a deep bench, where candidates agree with each other on 90% of whats being discussed, and, yes, every front runner needs to show they can take the heat. I don't want a coronation, I don't want a bunch of party leaders choosing who they want. Really, that's crazy. Who should decide who those three or four candidates are and on what basis? Polls? They're mostly about visibility and recognition and have squat to do with how people will vote. The DNC?

So let me revise. There is a lot of good in letting this play out.

As to turnout, actually, we had a substantive discussion on turnout because everyone thought immigrant turnout could be an issue. One of the three may throw a bunch of money at GOTV in the Indian community. The other two of us thought that was a good use of his money.

Re: Doesn’t Matter Who Wins the K Race; We’re All the Same
 

You're basing your analysis on someone saying "stuff like...?" You must be kidding.

Biden is leading Trump by 8 points in Ohio. Hillary lost Ohio by 8 points. Every other Democrat in the current field is tied with Trump in Ohio.

It doesn't seem stronger. It is stronger. And, I don't know how many times I have to say this, it doesn't matter how strong it actually is, because black people are going to the polls everywhere where they haven't been removed or blocked from voting to vote against the racist in office.

Dude, you keep approaching this conversation like I am someone who can put eggs in a basket.

I am a black man, with black and Asian people all over my family. I am voting against Trump. Period. I am completely focused on whoever can beat Trump by the widest margin. If Kamala wins the nomination and ekes out a victory, that's not much of a win. We need seats in the House and the Senate. And the best way to get them is to get white people--many of whom will not vote for a black person, or a woman, or a gay man, or an old Jew to pull the lever for the entire Democratic ticket wherever the fuck they are.

I'm with you there, brother.

TM

Re: What elephant?
 

Different cities are fucked in different ways. Some are struggling with transition to post-industrial economies and/or shrinking. Others are having trouble growing fast enough. Others (hi!) are pretty stable but also worried about falling into either trap.

Re: What elephant?
 

Cities are a concentrated demonstration of the increasing delta between low skill labor needed and low skill labor available. The center attracts professionals and those who work in high end services. Ringing this are neighborhoods filled with excess labor supply.

The same thing is occurring in the suburbs. Low skill labor areas suffer under a vicious cycle. People lose jobs, then homes, then housing prices fall and there’s flight. Those who can run to tonier neighboring towns.

At least in cities, bargain hunters will flood into cheap areas and improve them. In suburbs, and particularly exburbs, once the flight occurs, the only people who come in are speculators looking for cheap rental properties. A community of suburban renters is fucked. No property tax base, so shitty schools. It’s the worst kind of transient community. Mid Atlantic is pock marked with these types of places.

Re: Doesn’t Matter Who Wins the K Race; We’re All the Same
 

By the way, if your point is that the Dems need a candidate who really speaks to those white rural & working class voters, the calendar is going to reflect that bias, because those voters are all over Iowa and NH. So Biden is going to be tested in a field that is biased in favor of that group. We'll see how he does, if you are right, he should clean up. If he gets beaten in one or both of those will you be rethinking? If he gets absolutely clobbered in one?

I generally think you are right that we are going to see strong black voter turnout regardless of who is the candidate. I'm actually more worried about Hispanic voter turnout. I think Republican voter suppression tactics are really targeted there, and they know what they are doing.

Re: What elephant?
 

Chicago currently has 42 new high-rises under construction...yet population is declining.

Re: Doesn’t Matter Who Wins the K Race; We’re All the Same
 

We should have a separate thread where you can argue with "the left," so that all of the people who find those posts fascinating can see them all in one place.

Re: Doesn’t Matter Who Wins the K Race; We’re All the Same
 

If I were a Russian tasked with manipulating and undermining US elections, I would not prioritize hacking voting systems to change the votes cast, for a few different reasons.

At the same, for the last two years we keep learning about stuff that actually happened that was denied at the time and seems totally implausible. I still can't get over that Jarod Kushner asked the Russians about using a secure channel at their embassy. That's Crazytown.

Re: Doesn’t Matter Who Wins the K Race; We’re All the Same
 

NO. Because it's not about the fucking primaries. It's about the general and the people who aren't invested enough in either party to vote in the primaries who will vote for the old white guy who makes them feel safe in the general. If everyone else who voted against him in the primary doesn't fall in line for the general, then we're all gonna get what those assholes deserve.

I agree completely. What they have been able to do is absolutely terrifying.

TM

Re: What elephant?
 

The notion that development = improvement remains at the core of urban problems.

We generally need ways of delivering quality low and moderate income housing, not ways of converting whatever (flawed though it may be) low and moderate income housing to luxury housing (or absentee condos for Chinese buyers).

And some areas with high vacancy rates have remained that way for decades - how long do we have to wait for the magical improvers to come in?

Re: Doesn’t Matter Who Wins the K Race; We’re All the Same
 

On Biden, I don't think he can sustain the advantage he has right now in the polls. It's early. Most people aren't paying attention, and he benefits from his stature. But based on his past performance, he's not good at campaigning. It's one thing to get re-elected to the Senate in a small state like Delaware, and another to run for President.

I'd like to be wrong. If Biden can run a strong campaign and win the primary, that'd be excellent, and I will be 100% behind him. I am just worried that too many Democrats are thinking, let's pick a candidate that other people will like, and that that's a poor way to get a good candidate.

Re: What elephant?
 

The popularity of the anti-factual belief that foreign investors hold lots of empty properties is a significant beef I have with much of the performative left, especially when it is used to object to building additional housing.

Re: What elephant?
 

Your posts about cities make no sense here in California.

Re: Doesn’t Matter Who Wins the K Race; We’re All the Same
 

Normally, I would agree. But not this election.

The Dems who need to be excited to vote in the general, should be excited enough to vote based on who Trump is and what he's doing. The people who need comforting and will vote for Biden because he's a milquetoast white man are the ones who will determine this election.

Biden needs to survive the primaries. If he does and Kamala, Bernie, Corey, et al don't completely shit all over him, he will crush Trump.

TM

Re: What elephant?
 

I don't know the stats, but this is a reality in a small slice of the market - luxury high rises in Boston, SF, and NY. We've had a bunch of referrals from firms we work with in China, Taiwan and Australia to help them buy some of these, and one of my partners has developed a little guide (in English and Chinese) on buying such properties. I had one I passed on to someone who does that stuff where someone was buying a $30 million apartment in NY. Who does that?

It's almost comical in Boston because until recently we really didn't do luxury highrises. People with money in Boston live in Brownstones or single family houses, not highrises. But lately a bunch have been going up, and they fill almost entirely with people not from here (including a lot of relocated NYers - thanks GE!).

Re: What elephant?
 

This isn't really in reply to you.

The thread started with a reference to Baltimore, then I threw Detroit into the mix. Luxury high rises have nothing to do with solving the problem.

Baltimore is a very distressed city. But Detroit I know better. There is a "revitalized" thread down the main Avenue, and spreading from it. It is chock full of well paid young people and smart shops.

And if you get a half mile off it, you are in rodent infested very challenged areas. For a long while trash pick up was spotty, at best, in those areas. There are blocks with 20 homes, 1 or 2 occupied- they have to try to provide city services in a place that has home density that is almost rural. There are tons of hopeless uneducated people- for generations the high school drop out rate was high, it still is.

The NYT posts travel stories about visiting Detroit the revived city. My daughter lives in a neighborhood that includes the epicenter of the 1967 riots. You will not find an available rental property today. They are no longer beat homes to fix up.

The NYT will direct you to where my daughter lives. Visitors don't see the real challenge. It's great to be able to go to restaurants in the city that are wonderful, but fact is the city's people are not enjoying that rebirth- maybe some jobs- but life still is pretty much tough.

Foreign investment is the answer? Ain't no pracical answer at all.

Re: Doesn’t Matter Who Wins the K Race; We’re All the Same
 

You won’t go there. Put a pin in this, however, and in 24 months, see how many here will applaud regulation of speech. “Finland did it, and look how great it’s been. No more fake news about who’s getting the reindeer drunk!”

Re: What elephant?
 

UBI

Or debt forgiveness.

Pick.

Or advocate a lil bit of both.

Re: What elephant?
 

SF, Oakland, touché.

Ain’t no other “cities” out there. Just sprawled out counties called cities.

Re: What elephant?
 

Don't be ignorant. I like density at least as much as the next person, but cities that grew after WWII are still cities. Los Angeles, San Diego and San Jose are all larger than SF or Oakland, and are three of the ten largest cities in the country.

Re: What elephant?
 

I think Philly’s plan allows for organic regeneration of communities. Give the empty homes to the poor with a promise of ownership and then Leave Them Alone. Let people recreate what we once called “communities” - vibrant places where the “melting pot” concept originated. Stop precluding the would be store owner with a shit ton of regs and licensing horseshit. Let him open his place and sell. Let the craft brewer open with a cheap version of a liquor license instead of forcing him to fork over a king’s ransom. Let the chef open his byob joint without having to fill out 30 forms and pay 20 fees.

Make these places “Ellis Island” zones, where the poor can take a chance and build something, together. Give them a fucking break. Don’t force them to acquire capital to serve Big Finance. Let them act as the immigrants did a hundred years ago. Let them run things off the grid a bit. If they succeed, great. If they fail, how much worse could it be?

Yes, I know the melting pot was part legend. But it was part real, and the real part was what created the best elements of American culture. Give the battered communities to the people who are priced out of our bifurcated economy. Tax them lightly, let them reopen the local stores, parks, theaters, etc. And let immigrants come in and join. It worked a hundred years ago. I’m unaware of what would preclude such a Renaissance today.

And frankly, we need it. This Brave New World Shithole we’re creating where people like us control the cultural innovations is producing a wretchedly dull society. It’s more boring than materialism.

Re: What elephant?
 

Not cities like we have out east. LA is a fucking County.