Originally Posted by SEC_Chick (Post 499254)

I defense of the GOP, I think it will be more difficult for Trump from here on out. I have seen a fairly strong argument that it is not really Republicans, but Dixiecrats who are putting him over the top in the open primaries. Trump has not yet won an open primary, and Nevada, though it in theory has a closed caucus, also had election workers wearing Trump attire and failing to check id, and it's Nevada, so I don't think anyone is shocked at voting irregularities.

There are only 10 open primaries left, and there are a number of upcoming closed primaries that are winner-take-all. I am putting my faith in the fact that Trump hasn't broken 30% and has performed poorly with real Republicans in closed primaries. I think he knows this, and that explains his post-Super-Tuesday kinder and gentler Donald Trump that has emerged.

Between that, and the fact that the rules of the convention will be set in the future, I am hopeful that we can pull off a brokered convention and put in anyone but Trump. Heck even Romney, even though he was a crap candidate last time. At least I would vote for him.

Originally Posted by Greedy,Greedy,Greedy (Post 499261)

How did she game anything with Bernie?

He seems to have lost this fair and square. He's getting votes in caucuses among the party hardcore, she's getting them in primaries, where larger populations come out; he's getting them in the North, she's getting them everywhere; he just didn't have the horses. And they've had more than enough debates for my taste, and I've only seen about half of them.

Some of that is being new to the national stage, some of it is the message, some of it is the messenger.

Originally Posted by SEC_Chick (Post 499254)

I defense of the GOP, I think it will be more difficult for Trump from here on out. I have seen a fairly strong argument that it is not really Republicans, but Dixiecrats who are putting him over the top in the open primaries.

Originally Posted by Greedy,Greedy,Greedy (Post 499265)

Just an aside, as I keep thinking about the point, but Dixiecrats (or what we used to call Dixiecrats - how many generations do they have to vote R before they become Rs?) didn't do the job for trump in Massachusetts and Vermont.

Originally Posted by sebastian_dangerfield (Post 499257)

Trump's full of shit. He'd run the country as a moderate. He'd drop the useful idiots like a hot rock the minute he was elected and start cutting deals. Yeah, it'd be fucking embarrassing to have him in office. But any more than having W in office? We've been an embarrassment for a long time. And you can look forward to many more Trumps in the future because this is the shit you get after decades of politicians promising shit they could never hope to deliver, and engaging in wars they couldn't hope to win. It's a rich tapestry of shit to which we've all contributed through apathy, greed, and stupidity. I can't think of a better gold plated figurehead to run this garbage scow of a country into the iceberg it deserves that a king clown like Trump.

Originally Posted by SEC_Chick (Post 499266)

Massachusetts was probably crossover from some blue collar and union types to whom the populism and protectionism may have some appeal. I know it was NY and not MA, but Hillary can't even fill a rally when unions make attendance mandatory and pay comp time for people to attend.

Vermont elected Bernie Sanders. They are both reliably blue states, and it's not Vermont, kind of like NH, doesn't have a reputation for picking winners on the R side. While any R would rather have the delegates than not, I would just assume that no one is going to spend time or money there and that it's a state where someone like Kasich would outperform, and thus no one else would even try. Bottom of the barrel for Super Tuesday.

Originally Posted by SEC_Chick (Post 499266)

Massachusetts was probably crossover from some blue collar and union types to whom the populism and protectionism may have some appeal. I know it was NY and not MA, but Hillary can't even fill a rally when unions make attendance mandatory and pay comp time for people to attend.

Vermont elected Bernie Sanders. They are both reliably blue states, and Vermont, kind of like NH, doesn't have a reputation for picking winners on the R side. While any R would rather have the delegates than not, I would just assume that no one is going to spend time or money there and that it's a state where someone like Kasich would outperform, and thus no one else would even try. Bottom of the barrel for Super Tuesday.

Originally Posted by sebastian_dangerfield (Post 499264)

Even if he had the horses, she had the superdelegates in her pocket from the start. And the debates were all scheduled to attract minimal viewers.

Wasserman Schultz has been under intense scrutiny for scheduling primaries and debates to aid Clinton.

Originally Posted by Sidd Finch (Post 499268)

So your saying that your theory, that "Dixiecrats" is what propelled Trump to win, is empirically demonstrated by the primaries and caucuses to date -- because you have other explanations for Nevada, New Hampshire, Vermont, Massachusetts, and Minnesota?

I'm not sure that "Dixiecrats" even exist anymore, as those who once were have been voting Republican for a long time. But leaving that aside, and accepting what I believe is your sense of that, if you take "reliably blue" states out of the equation, and also take states with a lot of "Dixiecrats" out of the equation, you don't have much left.....

Originally Posted by SEC_Chick (Post 499271)

Ok then. The issue is people who frequently vote D for whatever reason (in state and local elections) are crossing over and voting for Trump in the open R primaries.

Cruz has won all but one of the closed primaries, and Donald Trump has won all but one of the open primaries.

Originally Posted by Sidd Finch (Post 499267)

There's a lot of stuff in your post I find interesting, ranging from things I agree with to those I think are just plain wrong (but in an always-endearing Sebby-like way). But I'll focus just on the last paragraph.

I agree that Trump's positions now have little bearing on his positions later. He's a personality candidate -- more like Putin than anyone I can think of. But that doesn't mean he'll be a moderate. Moderates have to build consensus and work across party lines. And moderation is boring.

My suspicion is that he'll do things that appeal to the largest group of the loudest people. Not good.

And I don't think this is a legacy of promises that can't be kept (for that, see Sanders). Rather it's a legacy of politicians -- primarily Republicans -- behaving as if standing on hard ideological principle and winning elections was the only thing that mattered, and governing was not.

Immigration reform is the great example. Many Rs knew it was needed, many supported it. But above all, they feared that actually enacting immigration reform would give Obama a "win", and that was unacceptable.

Originally Posted by sebastian_dangerfield (Post 499257)

Agreed. It is quite funny.

The Internet is polluted with so much hyperbole because of shit sites like Upworthy and Buzzfeed that wherever a strong verb or adjective is used, one should stop reading after the first line. "Marco Rubio Bought a Coffee at Starbucks This Morning. What Happened Next is Amazing!"

Except that he is worth over a billion, and has built a solid brand, garish as it is, so that part about business acumen... #justsayin And no. That he screwed people in r/e development workouts does not undo his success. First, that's an essential part of that business. Second, that only proves the guy can artfully work through a really tough deal.

Only half of it. He's appalling. But the way he's totally blowing up the GOP is incredibly entertaining. If only Bernie would get traction and do the same to that crooked stuffed pantsuit and her soldiers on the D side. (I disagree with Sanders on almost everything, but he is the only person out there with integrity.)

Still, I like one thing Trump is doing. Among the lies, there are occasional kernels of candor that are fantastic. His defense of Planned Parenthood (even though he has to claim he'll defund it to placate the Jesus Crazies) is great. And telling a bunch of corporate Bush stooges that W lied to get us into Iraq and did not keep the country safe was excellent. If nothing else, that pumpkinhead killed the Bush dynasty, and for that we all owe him a debt.

Oh, that's overwrought. A lot of people know he's full of shit but view him as the only "hand grenade" candidate who can actually get enough votes to get to DC and truly make a mess of the system.

Bullshit. Trump's attracting lower middle class voters who want protectionism. Our media is focusing on the David Dukes and the Mexican wall nonsense because nobody in the Establishment wants to address the criticism that globalization fucks over a lot of average people. It's all about money. It's always all about money. Trump is fueled primarily by poor folks who want to roll back globalization.

Trump's full of shit. He'd run the country as a moderate. He'd drop the useful idiots like a hot rock the minute he was elected and start cutting deals. Yeah, it'd be fucking embarrassing to have him in office. But any more than having W in office? We've been an embarrassment for a long time. And you can look forward to many more Trumps in the future because this is the shit you get after decades of politicians promising shit they could never hope to deliver, and engaging in wars they couldn't hope to win. It's a rich tapestry of shit to which we've all contributed through apathy, greed, and stupidity. I can't think of a better gold plated figurehead to run this garbage scow of a country into the iceberg it deserves that a king clown like Trump.

Originally Posted by Hank Chinaski (Post 499272)

I believe the NYT had an analysis yesterday saying this.

Originally Posted by Pretty Little Flower (Post 499274)

You have no fucking idea how Trump will run the country. Nobody does. Because he says whatever he feels like regardless of whether it contradicts whatever he felt like saying yesterday. That was part of Oliver's point. Yeah, maybe he'll get into office and say that the Mexican wall thing was just a "metaphor" and that when he talked about banning Muslims, he really just meant preventing infiltration of the country by radical terrorists of all religions. But you don't know that and if you think you do, you're more full of shit than Trump is. And the reason the media keeps focusing on the wall IS BECAUSE TRUMP KEEPS FUCKING TALKING ABOUT THE WALL. And every time he does, his scary fucking xenophobic supporters scream their neanderthal heads off and create more racist t-shirts and buttons and signs. Yes he has some supporters who just like the fact that he is a gigantic mind fuck for the establishment Republican party. And as someone who believes the two-party system is hopelessly broken, I also got a visceral thrill in seeing this loud-mouthed moron turn everything upside down. But the thrill is over. You say the media focuses on the David Duke issue unfairly? Seriously? He gets asked what he thinks about David Duke and the KKK and you can actually see the gears in his head turning as he tried to figure out how he could dodge the question without alienating is strong white supremacist base. So he lied about not knowing who David Duke is and then later lied about having ear piece problems and not understanding the question. And everybody says he's a strong leader who is not afraid to speak his mind. What a bunch of fucking bullshit that is. But there is no point debating the issue because our pointless speculation about what Trump will or won't do in office, or what his true motivations are, or whether he is a liar or just demonized by the media does not matter. It's all too esoteric for Trump supporters. Which is why the idea of sitting and typing words like these into some cyberspace politics chatting forum is so laughably sad, so absurdly grim, that I would not engage in it even as a joke. Which is why I never ever visit this sorry little page. Ever.

Originally Posted by SEC_Chick (Post 499271)

Ok then. The issue is people who frequently vote D for whatever reason (in state and local elections) are crossing over and voting for Trump in the open R primaries.

Cruz has won all but one of the closed primaries, and Donald Trump has won all but one of the open primaries.

Originally Posted by Pretty Little Flower (Post 499274)

You have no fucking idea how Trump will run the country. Nobody does. Because he says whatever he feels like regardless of whether it contradicts whatever he felt like saying yesterday. That was part of Oliver's point. Yeah, maybe he'll get into office and say that the Mexican wall thing was just a "metaphor" and that when he talked about banning Muslims, he really just meant preventing infiltration of the country by radical terrorists of all religions. But you don't know that and if you think you do, you're more full of shit than Trump is. And the reason the media keeps focusing on the wall IS BECAUSE TRUMP KEEPS FUCKING TALKING ABOUT THE WALL. And every time he does, his scary fucking xenophobic supporters scream their neanderthal heads off and create more racist t-shirts and buttons and signs. Yes he has some supporters who just like the fact that he is a gigantic mind fuck for the establishment Republican party. And as someone who believes the two-party system is hopelessly broken, I also got a visceral thrill in seeing this loud-mouthed moron turn everything upside down. But the thrill is over. You say the media focuses on the David Duke issue unfairly? Seriously? He gets asked what he thinks about David Duke and the KKK and you can actually see the gears in his head turning as he tried to figure out how he could dodge the question without alienating is strong white supremacist base. So he lied about not knowing who David Duke is and then later lied about having ear piece problems and not understanding the question. And everybody says he's a strong leader who is not afraid to speak his mind. What a bunch of fucking bullshit that is. But there is no point debating the issue because our pointless speculation about what Trump will or won't do in office, or what his true motivations are, or whether he is a liar or just demonized by the media does not matter. It's all too esoteric for Trump supporters. Which is why the idea of sitting and typing words like these into some cyberspace politics chatting forum is so laughably sad, so absurdly grim, that I would not engage in it even as a joke. Which is why I never ever visit this sorry little page. Ever.

Originally Posted by Greedy,Greedy,Greedy (Post 499270)

Primaries generally get scheduled by states, subject to party rules, and the rules for both parties aren't an awful lot different in how primaries get scheduled and have only been tweaked over the last half dozen cycles. Undoubtedly her campaign people did their best to encourage states to front load, thinking it would give her an advantage, but it's not an awful lot different than last time.

Scheduling debates is a negotiation. So what? That's part of the campaign.

Likewise, superdelegates? Yes, you have to campaign among a lot of people who have roles in the party, from governors to DNC members, and win their support, fickle as it may be (remember, Hillary's superdelegates started moving to Obama when the votes did last time). Bernie has had every opportunity to work with these people for the last thirty years, as a Congressman and Senator, and didn't build the constituency. Just as he didn't build it with African Americans. He didn't even manage to build that strong a base with unions - surprising for his message.

He got beat fair and square. These are the places you have to win if you want to be president. This isn't tiddlywinks.

Originally Posted by sebastian_dangerfield (Post 499276)

You're watching too much John Oliver.

Originally Posted by Greedy,Greedy,Greedy (Post 499278)

You say this now WITH YOUR ALL CAPS SCREAMING but you would have dropped to your knees for him the last time around.

Originally Posted by Pretty Little Flower (Post 499280)

You and I watched the same amount of John Oliver. Unless you didn't see the one about the New Zealand politician getting the dildo thrown at his face, which was a really good bit of television right there and I urge you to watch it, but I can promise you it did not affect my views on Trump, other than to think that if some woman threw a dildo at Trump, he would threaten to sue her (he wouldn't), call her a fat fucking hysterical bitch cunt on the rag on Twitter, and then publish her home address and phone number so that his fanatical thug supporters could hound her relentlessly and make her life a living hell.

Originally Posted by sebastian_dangerfield (Post 499260)

I was not a Hillary hater (frankly, she'll run things like a moderate Reagan Democrat, so the GOP hatred for her is baffling).

Originally Posted by sebastian_dangerfield (Post 499257)

Except that he is worth over a billion, and has built a solid brand, garish as it is, so that part about business acumen... #justsayin And no. That he screwed people in r/e development workouts does not undo his success. First, that's an essential part of that business. Second, that only proves the guy can artfully work through a really tough deal.

Originally Posted by sebastian_dangerfield (Post 499257)

Still, I like one thing Trump is doing. Among the lies, there are occasional kernels of candor that are fantastic. His defense of Planned Parenthood (even though he has to claim he'll defund it to placate the Jesus Crazies) is great. And telling a bunch of corporate Bush stooges that W lied to get us into Iraq and did not keep the country safe was excellent. If nothing else, that pumpkinhead killed the Bush dynasty, and for that we all owe him a debt.

Originally Posted by sebastian_dangerfield (Post 499257)

Bullshit. Trump's attracting lower middle class voters who want protectionism. Our media is focusing on the David Dukes and the Mexican wall nonsense because nobody in the Establishment wants to address the criticism that globalization fucks over a lot of average people. It's all about money. It's always all about money. Trump is fueled primarily by poor folks who want to roll back globalization.

Originally Posted by sebastian_dangerfield (Post 499262)

This is a stretch. Forbes has him at $4bil. (I think it's more like $2bil.) He also didn't get $200mil. He has brothers and sisters, and the old man wasn't even worth that much.

Originally Posted by Sidd Finch (Post 499267)

But above all, they feared that actually enacting immigration reform would give Obama a "win", and that was unacceptable.

Originally Posted by sebastian_dangerfield (Post 499260)

I was not a Hillary hater (frankly, she'll run things like a moderate Reagan Democrat, so the GOP hatred for her is baffling). But the way she's gamed the system to screw Bernie? And her plagiarism of his speeches? Fuck her.

Originally Posted by sebastian_dangerfield (Post 499260)

You can't win in this election.

Originally Posted by ThurgreedMarshall (Post 499284)

First, Someone I know was in a Trump deal recently and took a look at his financials. They claim he isn't even worth a billion dollars. If this is true, then it is amazing that he has squandered daddy's money so epically. Also, if it's true, he is not a success. He's a complete failure because if he had simply invested daddy's money in the most conservative way, he'd be worth way more than he is now.

But I love how you are able to reclassify people mentioning bankruptcy after bankruptcy as an attempt to undo his success.

No. Dubya and Jeb killed the Bush dynasty. No one owes Trump anything.

This is complete bullshit. The average Trump voter couldn't point to a globe. They like that he doesn't take shit, doesn't kowtow to the media even after they've identified his bullshit, hates muslims, Mexicans, and immigrants in general, and caters to racists by retweeting racist bullshit and winking at the white supremacists. Globalization. FOH.

The rest of your post isn't worth quoting. Trump will appoint people to important positions based on how they treated him in the last ten minutes, would completely destroy our standing in the world or any respect we've ever had, would rule via fucking twitter, and would act 10x worse than he currently acts because by winning the election he would believe he was right about all things. He would be waaaaay worse the Dubya. But I don't know if he'd be worse than Cruz.

Ladies and gentlemen, your Republican party.

TM

Originally Posted by sebastian_dangerfield (Post 499279)

I'll admit some bias here. I like Bernie. He elevated the discourse and he took on the banks. And though it was all pie in the sky, he was at least honest when he said he'd try to start a revolution.

Scratch a cynic and you'll find a pissed off idealist? Maybe that saying fits me here. Bernie's a good man, and I'd have liked to see him get a lot further, even if it doesn't square with my greedier instincts.

Originally Posted by Pretty Little Flower (Post 499281)

I have no idea what you are talking about, but if you are suggesting I would have provided unsolicited no-strings-attached fellatio to Trump at some point in the past, then you sir have gone too far. Because Trump hates gays.

Originally Posted by Adder (Post 499288)

I don't recall if it was said here, but the most apt comparison I've see is that Trump would likely be Berlusconi. Complete, utter, corrupt, self-aggrandizing shit show.

Originally Posted by Adder (Post 499285)

I don't think the details matter that much, but that the general story holds is an important lesson about how wealth works and why we should be wary of assigning it merit.

Originally Posted by ThurgreedMarshall (Post 499292)

Also, a great deal of how he defines his wealth is wrapped up in the value he himself places on his name. I read somewhere that he thinks it's worth $3 billion. Now he probably thinks it's worth more.

TM

Originally Posted by Hank Chinaski (Post 499293)

If he get the nomination, and gets destroyed in the general (not a sure thing I don't think) that name gets destroyed.

Originally Posted by Hank Chinaski (Post 499293)

I was thinking that he got himself dragged too far in now, he might well want a way out. Howard Stern always said (in the past) the guy was faking considering the Prez, because he lives a life that contains no hassle. Why run for the hardest job in the world when you are a billionaire that cycles in hot new wives every 10 years? But this year the successes stuck him.

If he get the nomination, and gets destroyed in the general (not a sure thing I don't think) that name gets destroyed. And I think it does mean a lot to him. A big devastating loss will be hard to explain away.

Originally Posted by SEC_Chick (Post 499271)

Ok then. The issue is people who frequently vote D for whatever reason (in state and local elections) are crossing over and voting for Trump in the open R primaries.

Cruz has won all but one of the closed primaries, and Donald Trump has won all but one of the open primaries.

Originally Posted by Adder (Post 499286)

It's not just that. It's also that they feared they'd get primaried over it and wind up out of office. Because they know the forces that back Trump are out there in their party.

Originally Posted by Hank Chinaski (Post 499293)

If he get the nomination, and gets destroyed in the general (not a sure thing I don't think) that name gets destroyed.

Originally Posted by Sidd Finch (Post 499300)

Do you really believe that 16% of the people voting in the GOP primary in Georgia were Democrats who decided to vote for Trump? That's just an example, but I think you should take the margins into account. Trump's wins have been yuge, in many cases. Cruz had a big win in his home state, but that's the only one.

Put differently, I think you are grasping at straws. I don't mean to be harsh in saying that (if Slave were saying what you are saying, I would respond that I was hardly surprised that he had come up with a way to blame Democrats for something.)

Originally Posted by ThurgreedMarshall (Post 499305)

This is exactly what it's like to talk to so many Republicans these days. They just say the most absurd, stupid shit. I honestly used to think that it was a facade they had to keep up in order to vote their pocketbook. And maybe this guy actually believes what he's saying. Maybe he doesn't. But at a certain point, it just doesn't matter, does it?*

And we are so very clearly at that point.

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=mUIs5K2Snpk

TM

*And that's the danger of the Sebby argument about Trump "really being a moderate" or the voters who support him really supporting him because of a fear of globalization (for fuck's sake, man). His supporters beat people. He whips them up into a frenzy and I wouldn't be surprised if a protestor at one of his rallies gets stomped to death. This shit is not a game. Stop making excuses for this asshole and his asshole supporters. Stop trying to rationalize their behavior and their support. Just fucking stop.