Re: Is Ted Cruz Satan? Discuss.
 

Re: Is Ted Cruz Satan? Discuss.
 

From this side, Hillary and Bernie don't exactly look like real winners either.

Yesterday furthers the hypothesis that Ted Cruz will outperform the polling and Donald Trump will underperform the polling data in closed primaries. All four states on Saturday were closed and while the victories were split, Ted Cruz won 64 delegates to Trump's 49, and came very close to a majority in Kansas. The polls in Louisiana had Trump up by 20, but he won by less than 4%.

I give total credit to Kansas for generally getting behind a single anti-Trump candidate. I feel bad for Rubio that he came in behind Kasich. I enjoyed his attacks on Trump, but some people were turned off. It was necessary, for the good of the country, for someone to play bad cop.

Re: Is Ted Cruz Satan? Discuss.
 

Eh, Republicans hate all Democrats. That's why they've spent more money investigating Dems during the last cycle than any Congress ever before, with zero indictments anywhere in the administration. Zero. It's a world of point and blame, and I stopped giving a shit a long time ago. Watching the level of discussion at the Democratic debate, simply the superior control of facts and the ability to engage in a sustained discussion of policy, there's just no doubt the Democratic candidates are just vastly more adult than what the Rs are serving up.

You don't think some of Cruz' wins yesterday had to do with the caucus/primary split? Believe me, I'll enjoy nothing more than pulling out the popcorn and watching these two go at each other for a couple months, thoroughly sickening the American public in the process, but I'm not sure Cruz has the staying power. The only primaries he's taken so far are Texas and Oklahoma.

Re: Is Ted Cruz Satan? Discuss.
 

Officially, Ted Cruz and Trump are now tied in the LA delegate distribution with 18 each and 5 for Rubio. And you realize that Ted Cruz has won Iowa, Alaska, Kansas, and Maine, in addition to Texas and Oklahoma.

And it looks like Marco Rubio is getting all the delegates from Puerto Rico, which should give him a boost in Florida.

Even Lindsay Graham, of "murder Cruz in the Senate and no one will convict" fame, has said that everyone should rally around Cruz as the best person to take down Trump.

Re: Is Ted Cruz Satan? Discuss.
 

Just my point on Iowa, Alaska, Kansas and Maine - all caucuses. Much, much narrower electorate. Will Cruz have the legs to win a primary outside his home media markets?

Even if you call his loss in Louisiana a "tie", as politicians are prone to do, he's still in a state that shares media markets with his home state. Will he play in Peoria?

I think the jury is out. Of course, Cruz is much easier for a Dem to beat, so power to him.

Re: Is Ted Cruz Satan? Discuss.
 

I thought Cruz won in caucus states, not closed primary states. Caucuses lend themselves to the committed, Jesus-directed zealot.....

Re: Is Ted Cruz Satan? Discuss.
 

But the turnout this year is astounding. In one state (Maine, I think) Cruz alone had 3,000 more than the entire GOP field in 2012. Maine is not particularly well known as a hotbed of Jesus crazies.

Re: Is Ted Cruz Satan? Discuss.
 

Have you met Gov LePage?

This is the fun of the season. We'll see how it plays out. Maybe he can only win over the crazies at the caucus. Maybe it's the crazies who show to a closed primary that will go for him instead. Either way, doesn't it suggest he's got a lot of work to do to be ready to play in a general election?

Re: Is Ted Cruz Satan? Discuss.
 

So you're saying he has a mind-controlling pokey-stick?

Re: This.
 

Jesus. Peggy Noonan is as full of shit as ever.

She could have written the same article 30 years ago. There is zero insight in that piece.

The reason why Trump is doing so well now is because (i) we had a black President in office for 8 years, (ii) terrorism is a thing that people can attach to a color and religion, and (iii) we have moved to being a service economy almost completely (read: all the new jobs suck).

Trump's supporters are mostly made up of that irredeemable 35% of our country that is racist as fuck and believe things that are their birthright (like control of the country) are being taken from them personally. They're sick of watching cops being criticized by thugs, gays being treated fairly, women asking for shit, trannies winning courage awards, Muslims doing anything, Kanye being mean to Taylor, Beyoncé being all black at their Super Bowl, etc. Trump speaks their dumbass language. A vote for Trump is a vote for anger while simultaneously being a vote against pussies, fags, thugs, illegals, and terrorists. It's that simple.

TM

Re: This.
 

Beyoncé being black was really the last straw.

Re: Justice
 

So Mitch McConnell is going to the mat and risking his senate majority so he can allow Donald Trump to appoint Gary Busey to the Supreme Court?

Re: Justice
 

Trump's sister is on the Third Circuit (apparently senior status now).

ETA: Who was on the panel for the one and only federal appellate case I've worked on. Now I'm struggling to recall whether she was the one who said, "you should have listened to the associate" after asking why the argument that I give myself credit for wasn't given more prominence.

Re: Justice
 

So if Obama nominated Trump's sister for the court...

would McConnell's head actually spin?

Re: Is Ted Cruz Satan? Discuss.
 

Dear Imaginary Uncle,

I had to think a bit about how to respond to your question. The results Saturday night (and Cruz, Rubio and Ben Sasse killing it at CPAC) did quite a bit to raise me out of despondency and reinvigorated my youthful* and naïve sincerely held belief in the good of conservative thought, so I am in a much better frame of mind than last week when I was certain I was seeing the destruction of the GOP as I knew it and was praying only to hasten the end. Now I have a glimmer of hope. My identity as a Republican is secondary to that as a conservative, but there are indeed many groups with different values that fall under the GOP umbrella: the taxed enough already people, who may or may not be socially conservative; the evangelicals; the chamber of commerce crowd, the neo-cons; the state’s rights/10th amendment folks; the religious libertarians; the 2A people; the “Establishment”. I don’t think that any subset is necessarily ‘more important’ than the other, except to say that the chamber of commerce types usually are the donor class and usually have lobbyists at their disposal. As someone with Tea Party sympathies, I am accustomed to being a minority in the party. And people are angry. I am angry too. Angry that the establishment has put forward such crappy candidates for president who can’t or won’t clearly speak for conservative principles and ideas. You get Romney with his 47% comment who can’t convincingly argue against Obamacare because of Romneycare. We get a congress who can’t do squat despite being a decent majority in both houses. Republicans in power who never even attempt to accomplish any of the things they promise to do, but instead channel their energy into the theatrics of failure we see each time an important decision is imminent. It’s not easy to manage a party with so many constituent groups, but perhaps the fact that we do have a relative diversity of thought in the party makes it stronger. I think we have a lot more angst internally than the Democrats. I used to have a lot more respect for Democrats when they allowed more diversity of thought in their own party ranks. It wasn’t that long ago that there used to be real pro-life Democrats, back in the days when they still thought that abortion should be safe, legal and rare. The last few holdouts on that count pretty much all got voted out after they sold out to Nancy Pelosi on Obamacare.

I think the real tragedy of the GOP is that they have not since Reagan put up a candidate who can serve as an effective champion for conservative ideas. I am a true believer that conservative principles can and should be something that appeals to a much broader swath of the population than it does now. That conservative principles are at their core winning ideas. That if we can get out the message with Nikki Haley and Tim Scott on a stage together endorsing Marco Rubio and get rid of all the Ann Coulters, we would have a real chance of winning for generations. The message that it doesn’t matter who you are or where you come from, that you can succeed by working hard. And by working to make that true for everyone. It is a truth reflected in the personal stories of many of the GOP presidential candidates. The stories of Ben Carson, who grew up in poverty and whose mother made him write book reports she couldn’t read, and the father of Ted Cruz who came to this country with $100 in his underwear and washed dishes, or Marco Rubio, whose parents were a bartender and a maid. Or of Carly Fiorina who worked her way up from a secretary to being a Fortune 500 CEO. That the socio-economic status of your parents does not limit your destiny. I cannot, of course, say that today the playing field is fair for all children. It is not. But the conservative solution starts with education and that is why conservatives are such strong advocates of charter schools and vouchers and empowering parents to make choices about their children’s education rather than being trapped in failing schools run by teachers unions that, generally, do not have the well-being of the children in their care as the top priority. That we can do better than leave a pile of crushing debt for our children. Democrats win when people don’t believe the American Dream can happen for them or their children and that dependence on government is the answer. The Democrat debates are nothing more than watching Grandma and Grandpa argue about who wants to take away more freedom and liberty from the people and give it to an already over-reaching government that is incompetent and corrupt. The war on poverty has been lost by the government. Perhaps it is time to really try the only way that is capable of giving the poor more without making anyone else have less. [Sorry for my tangent. CPAC lit a fire in me.]

Trump supporters are angry and insane (and lacking rational thought). They are so angry that they are do not care that he is a liar because he “tells it like it is.” Whatever that means. They are sending a message which is effectively a bag of fecal matter than has been lit on fire. Burn the whole thing down. Trump SMASH! On the other hand, you have the NeverTrumpers, who are horrified at the possibility of nominating a candidate who does not even bother to pay lip service to core conservative principles, much less believe them, and to be in any way affiliated with the insanity that are most Trump supporters. To be honest, I think Trump and Hillary are pretty much the same. He is a European-style big government guy, and I would rather be able to fight her tooth and nail than have to deal with a cancer from within. If our country goes further down the toilet, I would rather it be on her watch with a Republican House (if not Senate) that can tame some of her wilder primary positions (I am fairly certain no Republican majority in the house will repeal the Hyde Amendment, for example.)

With regards to the bigger picture, you have the anti-Trump crowd, who may be establishment Republicans or constitutional conservatives working to maintain what they have worked for over many years. And you have the anti-establishment crowd who hate Mitch McConnell and Paul Ryan and John Roberts, who may also be some of the “burn it all down” people. They are sick of always being told what great things Republican leadership will do tomorrow if they can live to fight another day. There is an anti-Rubio component to this as well because of the Gang of 8. You also have some anti-Cruz people, mostly moderates and libertarians, and others who just really want to win and think Cruz is a Goldwater who is selling distilled conservative orthodoxy to people who have not yet acquired a taste for it and will drive people away in the name of conservative purity and thus doom us to another 4 or 8 years of Democratic rule.

If Trump wins, I think the damage is irreversible and the party is done. If it goes to a brokered convention, I think the outcome will ultimately be the same. I will probably end up continuing to vote for Republicans on the state and local levels, and our campaign donation funds will be judiciously allocated to individual races, but Mr. Chick and I cut ties with the RNC some time ago. Reince Priebus is a tool.


* To my knowledge, the only board member still in their 30s.

Re: Is Ted Cruz Satan? Discuss.
 

If only we could return this nation to the conservative, low-taxation, small-government era of the 1960s and 1970s, when all of these rags-to-riches success stories actually grew up. (As well as ones you left out, like Barack Obama and Bill Clinton.)

Re: Is Ted Cruz Satan? Discuss.
 

Am I on ignore?

So you'd support TMBD3?

Re: Is Ted Cruz Satan? Discuss.
 

Am I on ignore?

Re: Is Ted Cruz Satan? Discuss.
 

18,650 turned out in GOP Maine caucuses. But 47,000 turned out for the Democratic caucuses.

Re: Is Ted Cruz Satan? Discuss.
 

If only we could return this nation to the conservative, low-taxation, small-government era of the 1960s and 1970s, when all of these rags-to-riches success stories actually grew up. (As well as ones you left out, like Barack Obama and Bill Clinton.)

I stretched back and I hiccuped, and looked back on my busy day.
 

And

Sidd is Ty? Or Ty is Sidd? Jesus. I'm Not Sure if that explains everything or nothing.

Re: Is Ted Cruz Satan? Discuss.
 

Thanks for the thoughtful response. I appreciate it, and it helps me better understand a little bit better what is happening on the conservative and/or GOP side of things.

Oof. I grow old, I grow old/I shall wear the bottoms of my trousers rolled.

Re: Is Ted Cruz Satan? Discuss.
 

I shall wear white flannel trousers, and walk upon the beach.
I have heard the mermaids singing, each to each.

I do not think that they will sing to me.

The Love Song of J. Alfred Prufrock is my favorite poem by my favorite poet. I even named one of our pet bunnies Eliot.

Let us go then, you and I.
 

I have seen the moment of my greatness flicker,
And I have seen the eternal Footman hold my coat, and snicker,
And in short, I was afraid.

Ahem. Poor Not Bob seems to be feeling a wee bit down today, no?

For some reason, Prufrock has been my favorite poem since high school, and different parts of it have spoken to me at different times as I've become (I think) an actual grown up.

But for some reason, I never could get into The Waste Land or Four Quartets. Probably on me; perhaps I should give the man another try after I finish reading the Elizabeth Bishop (I am a cliche) book I received for Christmas.

Re: Is Ted Cruz Satan? Discuss.
 

At this point, we don't have any establishment candidates. Well, Kasich, but he's effectively out of it too.

But we had Bush, Graham, Gilmore, Fiorina, Huckabee, Pataki, Ryan and Perry that are all from the pre-Tea Party GOP (Jindal too?). Who was sitting out that you think would have done better?

Anyway, it doesn't seem like the problem is lack of "good" establishment candidates, but rather that GOP primary voters don't really like establishment GOP candidates or policies when offered redder meat.

Re: Is Ted Cruz Satan? Discuss.
 

Wait a minute. I missed this the first time. No, you're not the only one still in their 30s (barely).

Re: Is Ted Cruz Satan? Discuss.
 

There are reasons for this, right? It didn't just happen by accident, did it?

Re: Is Ted Cruz Satan? Discuss.
 

The socioeconomic reasons for Trump's success:

http://www.realclearpolitics.com/art...mp_129902.html

http://www.nytimes.com/2016/03/02/op...ollection&_r=1

Re: Is Ted Cruz Satan? Discuss.
 

I was speaking more towards Dole/McCain/Romney in the establishment disappointment camp. GWB won, but was still a disappointment in many ways to much of the GOP from a policy perspective.

I think the problem for the Establishment now is that there are too many sub-groups under the GOP umbrella severely pissed off. They can no longer count on the rank and file to pull the lever for their guy. I would not have considered supporting a single Establishment candidate who ran this time, with the sole exception to that being, sure, I would rather Bush than Trump. I find it interesting how on our side, Rubio is absolutely considered an Establishment guy now and that was supposed to be his appeal. That he could appeal to the mainstream moderates and the more conservative voters. The immigration bill cost him every bit of the goodwill he had with the Tea Party people who previously had held him in such high esteem. Of those who ran and actually had a chance, Rubio would be my second choice, but would have been lower on the list if I ranked in order of ideological acceptability.

Re: Is Ted Cruz Satan? Discuss.
 

The Trump voter wants the impossible - to roll back globalization, economically and culturally.

The Establishment is being foolish on Trump. They should support and then co-opt him to their uses. He's inviting them to do so right now by saying he'll make deals, and they're ignoring him. It's quite baffling. Sure, Trump has baggage that would kill a traditional candidate. But he's a protest candidate, a mere vessel, and the people who will vote for him will do so no matter what muck comes out in the press.

The Establishment should engage in a Kabuki dance with Trump which allows him to hold his bona fides with the insurgent voters, cut a deal with him to govern as a moderate behind closed doors, and then find a way to funnel him piles of money without too overtly supporting him in public during the election, and shift his argument from "fuck the GOP Establishment" to "fuck the whole Establishment." That'll peel off independent voters and some Reagan Democrats.

Trump is the only guy out there who can beat Hillary. The GOP Establishment simply has to be a bit creative and stop viewing him as uncontrollable. Trump is not an American Caligula -- not by a long shot. He's a bloated ego who'll be way out of his depth and wind up staffing his administration with Establishment lackeys and Wall Street clowns. "Meet the new boss..."

Re: Is Ted Cruz Satan? Discuss.
 

Unfortunately, I think your original lament was probably the truer-one: there's not really a large popular constituency for small-government conservatism.

Of course, that's partly because the era of big government ended in the 1990s and y'all have essentially won, despite somehow believing you haven't.

Re: Is Ted Cruz Satan? Discuss.
 

The American Dream of the 20th Century was an economic aberration. The war put us in a unique position. We aren't there anymore.

The Democratic Party is a party of handouts. But they appear to be accidentally anticipating broader economic shifts much better than the GOP. I'm not going to get into some silly debate with Adder about whether the old saw, "as jobs disappear due to tech and outsourcing, new ones appear" still holds true (it does not, IMO). But I think we can all agree, for the next few decades, we're looking at wage stagnation, poor job quality, and unusually high under/unemployment for about half of society. We can argue whether it's moral hazard or bad policy to allow a dependent underclass to persist and grow, but practically speaking, they are going to do so regardless of what we do. In this regard, the Democrats appear far more realistic than Republicans (many of the loudest of whom are crony capitalists, which are part of the problem) trotting out of the old "anyone can make it in America" Horatio Alger shtick.

The Republicans would do well to embrace Nixon's and Milton Friedman's plan of a guaranteed minimum salary. They could sell that on the basis that it cuts out the administrative middlemen and all their govt salaries and pensions, which puts more of the money spent on dependents more directly and more quickly back into circulation in the economy.

Say what you will of dependents, but they spend 100% of what they get, which isn't exactly a bad thing in a consumption based economy.

Re: Is Ted Cruz Satan? Discuss.
 

You keep ignoring this, so I'll keep reminding you. "Insurgent voters" is largely comprised of racist, homophobic, xenophobes. Oh yeah, and all those people you imagine who are getting worked up into a frothing lather over protectionist ideals.

Joe Scarborough is an asshat
 

But he's right. GOP voters have figure out it never trickles down.

Re: Is Ted Cruz Satan? Discuss.
 

What are these conservative principles you think Bush or McCain or Romney didn't represent? As I look at all three I see

(i) opposition to taxes;
(ii) neo-con, expansionist foreign policy;
(iii) hostility to civil rights, from voting rights extension to marriage for all; and
(iv) opposition to ACA (though I'm suspecting Romney at some point will start taking credit instead of casting shade, but it hasn't happened yet).

Maybe you can argue that all three would likely support compromise on immigration, but on the above four issues, they are all pretty hard-care.

At an ideological level, I can't find meaningful distinctions among any of these people. It seems the real differences are over how obstructionist different candidates are and how colorful their language is, not whether they fundamentally hate gays and want to kill muslims - on those things they're unified.

Re: Is Ted Cruz Satan? Discuss.
 

Read the articles I linked to in a previous post.

I understand it's hard to ignore the Pavlovian urge to state "All Trump voters are just racists and homophobes." It feels good, and it makes the necessary moral judgment a lot easier. The problem is, it's not true. Some are racists, no doubt, and his rallies are seriously creepy. But you keep saying "all" of the "insurgent voters," and that's plainly avoiding an argument of degree. An important one. Why is it important? Because from Occupy to Bernie to Trump, there's a common thread -- a complaint about lack of living wage jobs, and wealth inequality. There is a huge discussion to be had on the issue of economic globalization and its impacts on workers that the Establishment of both parties, and their biggest donors, work assiduously to avoid.

Look... Globalization is unavoidable. Millions of Americans are fucked going forward. Utterly, totally fucked. We have and will have a bifurcated society. Right now, the Bernie voter, the Trump voter -- these people are grasping just how screwed they're going to be. And the rest of us are responding by avoiding that discussion, and the reason is simple. We don't want to admit it to them. If Joe Sixpack understands his dire straits, he's liable to vote for a guy like Bernie or Trump. And this would harm those of us who do fine in a global system. And it would sure as hell harm those who make enormous sums by cost cutting with labor arbitrage.

When people say dumb things like "All Trump voters are racists and homophobes," the honest conversation with Joe Sixpack never occurs. We never reach it.

And I think the media focus on the racist element of Trumpism is not an accident. First, it's ugly, so it attracts clicks and eyeballs on the TV. But second, and more importantly, it helps to avoid discussion of the economic causes of Trumpism (and Bernie), which Rupert Murdoch sure as fuck doesn't want to give any airtime.

Re: Is Ted Cruz Satan? Discuss.
 

The points you and Sebby* are making re Trump are not necessarily inconsistent. In fact, I think that both points are needed to understand his appeal, and they both feed the other.

*Raouuuuuuuuul! (Related: I miss Fringey.)

Re: Is Ted Cruz Satan? Discuss.
 

The problem for the Establishment GOP is that, for the past many years -- starting, at least, with Newt Gingrich's government shutdown -- they have sold the party on the notion that a decent compromise is nowhere near as good as taking a pure ideological stand.

When you need to look for policies that are achievable and effective, you build coalitions. When you value taking an ideological position and refusing to compromise, you splinter into groups based on which position and issue is most important to particular people.

The problem is not unique to the GOP (see, Sanders). In fact, for many years it plagued Dems, and more broadly the left -- it was easy to be a radical about X, and to disagree with all the other radicals who had their own X, when no one gave a shit about actually accomplishing effective policy and governance and change. But it has become the Republicans' core message. That people who tried to destroy the US economy by refusing to approve a debt-ceiling increase did not see their political careers end is among the gravest symptoms.

Re: Is Ted Cruz Satan? Discuss.
 

We could adopt policies the would make them less fucked - providing greater support for housing and health care and/or a basic income - so that "fucked" doesn't look all that bad.

In part because there aren't easy answers. Trump's protectionism helps no one (and he won't do it). It turns out that fast growth is a lot harder when you're starting from a higher base. And the things that would help (e.g., a lot more immigration) are really unpopular with key demographics.

We need what some of what Bernie is selling. We just have to figure out how we can get there politically.

ETA: It would also help if we could get Americans to realize that raising the people of the world's most populous country out of abject poverty into middle income status via trade is a massive net positive for humanity. But that ain't happening.

Re: Is Ted Cruz Satan? Discuss.
 

Is there any way to read the quotes in this article as anything but despicable?

Anyone willing to defend him?