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Perry is Closer to the GOP Nomination Than You Think, Bitches.*

Once Labor Day has passed, there will be five debates, in quick succession, on the GOP presidential candidates' calendars. These will be important tests for Perry. If at the end of two or three, it's clear that he's every bit the equal of Mitt Romney on matters of policy and politics, then the Perry juggernaut becomes all but unstoppable. Romney's "I'm the only electable one" argument will vanish and the party's base will nominate one of their own. If Perry stumbles badly in the debates, Romney's campaign gets a second wind.

Knowing that the only things standing between Perry and the GOP nomination are a couple of "good enough" debate performances, the GOP "establishment" faces a choice: they can cross their fingers and hope for the best or mount a sustained negative campaign to destroy Perry with the party's base. It is likely that, after Labor Day, a sustained negative campaign against Perry will be launched.

The sewage flood-gates have already opened, to some degree. For the past few months, Washington bureau chiefs of major news organizations have been inundated with rumors of Perry's alleged personal indiscretions and peccadilloes. And virtually every major news organization has some kind of "investigative team" looking into allegations of "pay to play" and other forms of corruption. If all that that amounts to are some negative articles in The Washington Post and The New York Times, Perry won't be harmed. It will take something serious, something big and proven to bring him down.

* Last word not technically part of the article title, but might as well be.