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Originally Posted by Sidd Finch
I'll leave aside the "bomb the poor" silliness.
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I was being silly, and thought that was clear. But I also do not believe that Republican domestic or foreign policy is driven by a deep and abiding love for free markets -- I think that love for free markets is instrumental and convenient, and easily abandoned for other loves.
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Instead, I would guess that both you and GGG have supported sanctions, versus the transformative power of a business relationship, in certain instances, in particular instances -- especially with respect to apartheid South Africa. So you and I could be accused of the same flip-flop as the GOP is engaging in, by supporting that sort of engagement with respect to Iran (and Cuba).
So, why? What makes these cases different?
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Not following where I've flip-flopped. In general, I think economic incentives are a more powerful incentive to get people to do what you want them to do than bombing them is. I think we consistently overestimate just how helpful bombing will be in accomplishing our goals, though I also think some people in our society (e.g., rhymes with Thrill Pistol) just groove on bombing people.
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For Cuba, it's that sanctions failed, the country poses no threat, and there is a real opportunity for constructive engagement through business and capitalism, because they might benefit the Cuban people broadly (and there's the leadership-transition issue).
For Iran, it's different. Sanctions actually worked there, and brought the regime to a point of wanting to make concessions. Just because sanctions have worked, doesn't mean that more sanctions is the right call; instead, we should reap the benefit here. If this deal closes, Iran will be further away from acquiring nukes than it is now (or was 8 years ago), and a verification regime will be in place. But the regime's power is such that I doubt we'll see a broad beneficial effect to capitalist engagement.
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Also, in Iran, we managed multilateral sanctions, which worked in a big way. In Cuba, not so much. I hear a lot of Canadians are unhappy now that they'll be vacationing with Americans in Cuba.
