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Originally Posted by Greedy,Greedy,Greedy
Here, again, I think sanctions had their impact, but the real victory goes to the ANC and Mandela, who got change by bringing pressure every way you can, from sanctions to terrorism, on the government.
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No question -- we only played a supporting role. But on the list of options that was available to the US, sanctions was the most effective thing, and they were effective. (Okay, supporting the ANC far more fully would have been more effective, but for our own f'd up reasons that wasn't on the list until way too late.)
But, yes, the real victory is to the ANC and Mandela. But aren't you acknowledging that blowing things up can be productive (at least if it's part of a broader approach)?
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There is a large and overwhelmingly optimistic Iranian ex-pat community that seems pretty confident of this. That's my barometer. They know better than we do.
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I truly hope you are correct. I saw a similar wave of optimism for China during the Tiananmen protests, and that's what scares me. This is, certainly, a much longer arc, but I don't see the religious hard-liners giving up power or getting truly marginalized in the next couple of decades.
