Pepper sprayed for public safety.

[LessinSF]

Originally Posted by Tyrone Slothrop

"At some point, however, inflation will become a factor."

People have been saying this, wrongly, since 2008 -- sooner or later, they have to be right, but there's no sign of it yet.

I have admiited to being wrong on this because I did not fully comprehend the amount of deleveraging that would occur, and apparently still is. But pumping more fake money in is not necessarily the solution. Hangovers can only be resolved by shakes, sweats, time, and cautious rediscovery of apfelwein.

lessinFrankfurt

[Tyrone Slothrop]

Originally Posted by LessinSF

I have admiited to being wrong on this because I did not fully comprehend the amount of deleveraging that would occur, and apparently still is. But pumping more fake money in is not necessarily the solution. Hangovers can only be resolved by shakes, sweats, time, and cautious rediscovery of apfelwein.

lessinFrankfurt

All money is fake money. It's just paper. Or electrons.

[Adder]

Originally Posted by LessinSF

I suspect a valid point as Scalia appears to become more of an angry old man, but a weak-ass argument as presented.u

LessinFrankfurt

Judicial activism is fun when you're the activist.

[Tyrone Slothrop]

Originally Posted by Adder

Judicial activism is fun when you're the activist.

Most Article III judges get an inflated sense of self as they stay on the bench. It takes a very strong personality not to let it go to your head. (At least district judges have appellate courts to tell them they make mistakes.)

etfs

[LessinSF]

Originally Posted by Tyrone Slothrop

Most Article III judges get an inflated sense my boss you to of self as they stay on the bunch. It takes a very strong personality not to let it go to your head. (At least district judges have appellate courts to tell them they make mistakes.)

As my boss used to say, "were the Court of final error."

LessinFrankfurt

[Tyrone Slothrop]

[Hank Chinaski]

I had a run in with a southern lady wearing a CSA necklace with stars and bars on it. if Ty made a venn of "racists" and "stars and bars wearers" would B be a circled wholly within A or does part of B extend out of A? that is are there any S&B wearers who do it for a reason other than racism?

[Gattigap]

Originally Posted by Hank Chinaski

I had a run in with a southern lady wearing a CSA necklace with stars and bars on it. if Ty made a venn of "racists" and "stars and bars wearers" would B be a circled wholly within A or does part of B extend out of A? that is are there any S&B wearers who do it for a reason other than racism?

Possibly, but the part of B that extends outside of A is small and shrinking as time passes and more people fully appreciate that spending emotional energy trying to justify the distinction is stupid.

Stars and Bars enthusiasts will remain for some period of time as a tribal affiliation, mostly for white people who love their region of the country. The reality, though, is that it's a tribal affiliation whose strongest historical connection is to slavery and segregation. This realization, together with the reality that so many other Stars and Bars wearers are dipshit rednecks, will continue to shrink B until it's entirely inside A.

[sebastian_dangerfield]

Originally Posted by Tyrone Slothrop

Everything you say would make sense in normal times. These are not normal times. Have you noticed how cheap Treasuries are? The federal government can borrow right now at essentially no cost. (This is because things are so unattractive for investors that they are willing to park assets with the federal government even for no return.) In these circumstances, anything the federal government does with the money that has some economic return -- building roads, railroads, airports; teaching students, etc. -- will pay for itself. This is not propping up the status quo.

What assets do you think need to fall? Why aren't they falling? Why is having everyone -- public and private -- deleverage going to help? How do we make up the huge social loss caused by people who are not working?

1. Bullshit. The govt cannot spur sustained economic activity. Markets, investors, businesses - they all see right through it. Sure, there's a limited bump from govt infrastructure building, but no one but a fool assumes it will continue once the project is completed. Transient activity surrounds a project for a while, then it is completed, then that activity disappears. The notion building a highway magically creates tons of new, long term activity on the basis, "Build a paved road and they will come," is lunacy. It's the kind of idiot-think only a govt-planner or policy wonk, who never worked in an actual business, would advocate.

I'll say it again: Govt spending can only provide a bridge loan to the next economic uptick. It cannot create sustained economic growth. Why you can't understand the difference between a patch and cure I can't understand. (You probably think the New Deal brought us out of the Depression, as well.)

2. Homes need to drop 10-20% to bring more first time buyers into the market in non-FHA products. The Dow needs to drop 2000 points, to bring individual investors back into the game, rather than allowing the hedge fund high-speed trading quant gambling circus we currently have to persist. We need an acute drop that ends the discussion, "Is this the bottom?" with a resounding, "Yes." Which would then be followed with, "So get in now. Invest while it's cheap. Buy because you'll never see a better deal."

[sebastian_dangerfield]

You keep bouncing back and forth between the state of the entire economy and the effect of things done at the margin, and the result is absolute incoherence. Summers doesn't say that just any investment will work. Of course you have to repay the principal. But you're not even thinking about the marginal effect of the steps he's proposing.

What does this even mean? Borrowing and spending another $550bil is something done at the margins? You don't see the interplay between that kind of borrowing and the "entire economy." I'm incoherent?

This makes absolutely no sense. None. Someone owns those stocks and houses right now. If their values drop, those people have less money. Transferring their assets to someone with money "on the sidelines" right now will not help those stocks and houses generate economic activity.

Those people already have less money. Nobody save the wealthy is living like they have the money their portfolios, or their bloated home values, suggest. Everybody knows it's a lie - that it's all propped values. That's the essential weakness of the Fed's efforts. All they've done is create speculation at the margins because nobody thinks the current monetary fix will work. Nobody thinks another Stimulus will work. Everybody with a brain is simply trying to maximize returns and park as much as they can in safe havens in fear of the next imminent slump (wall of worry, etc.). All I'm advocating is a recognition of the truth that assets are really worth 75% of their current value. The sooner we recognize that, out loud, the sooner investors will say, "This is the bottom," and start investing in things that will help to bring back sustained economic growth.

[Sidd Finch]

Originally Posted by Hank Chinaski

I had a run in with a southern lady wearing a CSA necklace with stars and bars on it. if Ty made a venn of "racists" and "stars and bars wearers" would B be a circled wholly within A or does part of B extend out of A? that is are there any S&B wearers who do it for a reason other than racism?

Back when southern rock was big you had people not realizing that their Allman Brothers or Skynyrd shirt had a confederate flag on them. Other than that, no.

[Tyrone Slothrop]

Originally Posted by sebastian_dangerfield

1. Bullshit. The govt cannot spur sustained economic activity.

Man in lifeboat: Look! Over there! A case of bottled water! If we paddle over there, we'll have water to drink!

Other man in lifeboat: Sure, there'd be a limited bump in our hydration, but that case of bottled water cannot keep us alive for ever. We're all doomed.

[sebastian_dangerfield]

Originally Posted by Tyrone Slothrop

Man in lifeboat: Look! Over there! A case of bottled water! If we paddle over there, we'll have water to drink!

Other man in lifeboat: Sure, there'd be a limited bump in our hydration, but that case of bottled water cannot keep us alive for ever. We're all doomed.

I congratulate you on the breakthrough. It only took years of argument, but you've finally realized Stimulus is nothing more than a short term palliative. A year or so ago I recall you still arguing about how it could spur a recovery.

By the way, I'm not arguing Stimulus is a flawed approach. I agree Stimulus is the best course early on, and it did save us from dire consequences at the outset of the crisis. But we're past that point now. We're at the point where need need something to trigger growth and employment. The evidence to date shows loose monetary policy and govt spending have not, and cannot, do either. It's now time to think, "Hey, maybe we should try the opposite and see if that works."

What's there to lose? If refusing Wall Street its demanded QE3, allowing rates to rise a bit and publicly ruling out Stimulus don't work, we can always run a Stimulus later. The damage can't be any worse than what's going on already.*
________
* Personally, I think mass break-ups of large telecomms, TBTF banks, media corps, energy companies, and numerous other benefactors of our corporatist system would do wonders for employment, innovation, and wage growth. But that's another debate entirely.

[sebastian_dangerfield]

Originally Posted by Sidd Finch

Back when southern rock was big you had people not realizing that their Allman Brothers or Skynyrd shirt had a confederate flag on them. Other than that, no.

Bite your tongue. The Allmans have never had a Confederate flag on any of their stuff. I recall an interview with Gregg Allman in which he joked about marketers trying to get the band to use the flag, and him having to remind them one of their drummers was black.

I like Skynrd fine (Second Helping is a brilliant, Al Kooper-produced record), but Skynrd and the Allmans are not interchangeable. I've seen the Allmans numerous times, and I think it'd be accurate to say 75% of their fan base wouldn't be caught anywhere near a Skynrd concert.

Originally Posted by sebastian_dangerfield

By the way, I'm not arguing Stimulus is a flawed approach. I agree Stimulus is the best course early on, and it did save us from dire consequences at the outset of the crisis. But we're past that point now. We're at the point where need need something to trigger growth and employment. The evidence to date shows loose monetary policy and govt spending have not, and cannot, do either. It's now time to think, "Hey, maybe we should try the opposite and see if that works."

Yes, stimulus was the best course early on, when we were confronted with high unemployment, lack of job creation in the private sector, flagging consumer demand, and high rates of debt brought on by the housing crisis. Now that we're no longer confronted by those things, of course, we should certainly try laying off a whole lot more public sector workers and cutting taxes some more while we wait for the Job Kreators to create jobs with all that leftover cash. It's gotta happen sometime, right?

What's there to lose?

A few million more jobs, give or take.

The damage can't be any worse than what's going on already.*