Pepper sprayed for public safety.

[sebastian_dangerfield]

Originally Posted by Tyrone Slothrop

For Sebby: self-induced paralysis.

The recipe, once again, is more stimulus. I'm not one of those "You'll spike inflation with more stimulus!" people (I think there are enough deflationary forces at work to stanch any severe inflation). And I don't see anything else the Fed can do at this point aside from QE3. So if people who think it will work want to open the spigot once more, go for it.

But I don't think it will do much to goose employment here for a few reasons:

1. If it could have, it would have already;
2. Almost all stimulus finds its way into speculation;
3. The political climate creates a unique reluctance to hire;
4. Technology, cost-cutting, and enhanced productivity are no longer methods by which companies merely weather downturns, but are increasingly incorporated in both good times and bad to raise profitability.

And that last issue is the scariest, which is why analysts and news reporters stay away from it. There is a fear that if we discuss aloud, publicly, what the observant of us see plain as day - that there are simply far more hands than tasks to be done... that the things we need today are increasingly produced and delivered with minimal human involvement - the conversation would lead us down a frightening road.

I truly believe that people avoid the discussion of the Malthusian element because they fear it could lead to radical policy-making. Thus, it's relegated to the "Sphere of Deviance" - dismissed as something on par with Paul's "End the Fed" rants.

But it's not. Ask a consultant. Ask a business owner. Labor costs, and labor regulations, kill profits. I know this firsthand. People cost serious, hard dollars. They want health care (a fortune). They need to be massaged. They want raises. They have kids and take time off. They get sick. They quit and you have to retrain others...

Sure, some of them are insanely profitable. But it's always the 80/20 rule. And as soon as you find out who the 20 percent doing all the work are, you find yourself wondering, "Why am I not paying them more, and firing most of everyone else?" The only answer to that question is, "Because I'm a fool. I should fire everyone else." And you can. Most of the 80% can be replaced with technology, at 1/3 the cost. No healthcare, no employment lawsuits, no sick days.

People are simply bad investments, particularly middle management sorts. In the old days they were necessary evils. Today, you don't need so many of them. And everyone knows this. We'll never say it out loud, but the stats will bear me out. In 2015, unemployment will still be above 8%. This is just the new new.

[Hank Chinaski]

Originally Posted by sebastian_dangerfield

The recipe, once again, is more stimulus. I'm not one of those "You'll spike inflation with more stimulus!" people (I think there are enough deflationary forces at work to stanch any severe inflation). And I don't see anything else the Fed can do at this point aside from QE3. So if people who think it will work want to open the spigot once more, go for it.

But I don't think it will do much to goose employment here for a few reasons:

1. If it could have, it would have already;
2. Almost all stimulus finds its way into speculation;
3. The political climate creates a unique reluctance to hire;
4. Technology, cost-cutting, and enhanced productivity are no longer methods by which companies merely weather downturns, but are increasingly incorporated in both good times and bad to raise profitability.

And that last issue is the scariest, which is why analysts and news reporters stay away from it. There is a fear that if we discuss aloud, publicly, what the observant of us see plain as day - that there are simply far more hands than tasks to be done... that the things we need today are increasingly produced and delivered with minimal human involvement - the conversation would lead us down a frightening road.

I truly believe that people avoid the discussion of the Malthusian element because they fear it could lead to radical policy-making. Thus, it's relegated to the "Sphere of Deviance" - dismissed as something on par with Paul's "End the Fed" rants.

But it's not. Ask a consultant. Ask a business owner. Labor costs, and labor regulations, kill profits. I know this firsthand. People cost serious, hard dollars. They want health care (a fortune). They need to be massaged. They want raises. They have kids and take time off. They get sick. They quit and you have to retrain others...

Sure, some of them are insanely profitable. But it's always the 80/20 rule. And as soon as you find out who the 20 percent doing all the work are, you find yourself wondering, "Why am I not paying them more, and firing most of everyone else?" The only answer to that question is, "Because I'm a fool. I should fire everyone else." And you can. Most of the 80% can be replaced with technology, at 1/3 the cost. No healthcare, no employment lawsuits, no sick days.

People are simply bad investments, particularly middle management sorts. In the old days they were necessary evils. Today, you don't need so many of them. And everyone knows this. We'll never say it out loud, but the stats will bear me out. In 2015, unemployment will still be above 8%. This is just the new new.

somewhere there are companies that pay adder/Ty/ggg to sit around and read blogs all day. are you saying those companies aren't making a profit from that employment?

[Adder]

Originally Posted by sebastian_dangerfield

Malthus wasn't wrong. He was early.

Ay, caramba. Malthus was wrong. He failed to appreciate that he was describing a dynamic system in which population growth and food production feedback on each other.

Your dude is doing the same thing.

He's also incorrectly assuming "life essentials" is some sort of fixed thing that never changes.

[Adder]

Originally Posted by sebastian_dangerfield

I'm not one of those "You'll spike inflation with more stimulus!" people (I think there are enough deflationary forces at work to stanch any severe inflation).

Progress! In my younger days, I might have gone back and found all of your prior posts predicting imminent inflation and/or insisting that the Fed was causing real inflation that wasn't being measured. In stead, I will just ask you to stipulate that your views on inflation have evolved.

4. Technology, cost-cutting, and enhanced productivity are no longer methods by which companies merely weather downturns, but are increasingly incorporated in both good times and bad to raise profitability.

And that last issue is the scariest, which is why analysts and news reporters stay away from it.

It's hard to be scared by something that is literally always true.

[Tyrone Slothrop]

Originally Posted by sebastian_dangerfield

And hell followed with him.

Seems like an interesting blend of sound observations and spurious conclusions.

[Tyrone Slothrop]

America, Love It Or Leave It Dept.


Minnesota's gift to Switzerland!

[LessinSF]

Originally Posted by Tyrone Slothrop

America, Love It Or Leave It Dept.


Minnesota's gift to Switzerland!

My new homeland does one better - http://www.nytimes.com/2012/05/09/wo...n-germany.html .

LessinTelAviv

[Tyrone Slothrop]

Tweet of the day (so far):

There is no "anti austerity" party in Greece. There's a pro-planned austerity party and a pro-unplanned austerity party.

[Greedy,Greedy,Greedy]

Originally Posted by Tyrone Slothrop

Tweet of the day (so far):

There is no "anti austerity" party in Greece. There's a pro-planned austerity party and a pro-unplanned austerity party.

A year ago, I remember stories in the news simultaneously about a couple of US states and a couple of states on the Mediterranean being on the verge of default. Seems they've moved closer to the edge and we've moved away from it.

[Tyrone Slothrop]

[sgtclub]

Did we just witness a stealth mutiny?

Obama is forced to reverse his position and state publicly he favors same sex marriage after several members of his cabinet come out publicly in support. Typically, cabinet members tow the party line, but in this case they did not, and the timing is suspicious.

[Adder]

Originally Posted by sgtclub

Did we just witness a stealth mutiny?

Obama is forced to reverse his position and state publicly he favors same sex marriage after several members of his cabinet come out publicly in support. Typically, cabinet members tow the party line, but in this case they did not, and the timing is suspicious.

There were cabinet members? I just saw Biden's comments.

And I suspect they foreshadowed rather than forced the Obama position. This one time, I don't thin Biden bidened.

ETA: But feel free to conclude that this all means Obama's weak and easily manipulated.

Originally Posted by sgtclub

Did we just witness a stealth mutiny?

Obama is forced to reverse his position and state publicly he favors same sex marriage after several members of his cabinet come out publicly in support. Typically, cabinet members tow the party line, but in this case they did not, and the timing is suspicious.

Ooh, yes, I get it -- because he's so weak that his cabinet can "force" him to "reverse" his position. He's a weak leader! I've heard this before. But wait! Maybe Obama is so conniving and clever that he had his cabinet members prepare the ground with their seemingly spontaneous statements. It was all a setup!

I am not sure which conspiracy theory plays better for Fox News, but I am sure someone will be along to clarify it for me shortly.

And I am glad to see that Obama will be getting no credit for actually saying the right thing from anyone. Because not only am I getting your "failure of leadership" meme from the right, I am reading lots of "oh so now after four years finally" whinging from the left. But whatever, it's probably a wash anyway, because for every college kid this will inspire to get off his or her ass, there is almost certainly a bigot in a swing state somewhere who will hold his nose and vote for Romney now.

[Greedy,Greedy,Greedy]

Originally Posted by sgtclub

Did we just witness a stealth mutiny?

Obama is forced to reverse his position and state publicly he favors same sex marriage after several members of his cabinet come out publicly in support. Typically, cabinet members tow the party line, but in this case they did not, and the timing is suspicious.

Wait, weren't the talking points from Rove to attack on "he's following from behind, only now coming around to where the American people have already come"?

Or are you just trying to find a way to attack a guy for doing the right thing, here, because you don't like him?

You do agree that he is doing the right thing, right?

Originally Posted by Greedy,Greedy,Greedy

Wait, weren't the talking points from Rove to attack on "he's following from behind, only now coming around to where the American people have already come"?

Or are you just trying to find a way to attack a guy for doing the right thing, here, because you don't like him?

You do agree that he is doing the right thing, right?

Poor, naive GGG. The conversation can't be about whether he did the right thing, because then people who hate gays will have to talk about that outside the cozy confines of a Rick Santorum campaign event. Awkward! The conversation has to be about how Obama is simultaneously a slick and cynical manipulator, AND also weak and getting pushed around by Joe Biden et al., and whether he's made a "political mistake" by potentially mobilizing stay-at-home bigots to get out and hold their noses for Romney. Also, WHAT ABOUT THE PRICE OF GAS? HUH?