Doesn’t Matter Who Wins the K Race; We’re All the Same

[ThurgreedMarshall]

Originally Posted by Tyrone Slothrop

I have some affection for Biden, and I wish that he wouldn't run for President, because it's not going to go well for him.

Originally Posted by Adder

2

How so? He's already known for saying stupid shit. He's sure to screw up plenty, but in relatively minor ways. And compared to Trump, he's going to seem like the most eloquent motherfucker ever. I think he's going to crush Trump.

TM

[Greedy,Greedy,Greedy]

Originally Posted by sebastian_dangerfield

I don't think they're saying they miss the days when they could discriminate and sexually harass people.

I didn't see you there, did you come in late?

[sebastian_dangerfield]

This is not true. He is a moron. And he's the most dangerous kind of moron there is--one who is uninterested in learning anything.

He's a subject specific moron. He's smart in what he likes - marketing, huckstering, getting projects finished with OPM.

This might be true. But his insecurity springs from his stupidity, ignorance, and knowledge that he is not attractive. He has absolutely zero friends--only employees and club members. There is nothing that brings him actual joy.

He is a joyless person, not only from obvious facts one can see on TV, but from every personal anecdote I've heard.

He knows he's a joke and he can't stand it. He has no clue what he's doing no matter what room he's in. The worst thing to happen to this country in our lifetimes was Obama roasting him at the correspondents' dinner. Trump was completely humiliated in front of a room of people that Trump needs to think respect him.

I never bought the argument that Obama's joke started this mess. I think Stone started it long ago, and Trump was happy to use the limelight as marketing. Dumb bastard screwed up and actually won the election.

Just desserts for a life of clipping contractors.

[sebastian_dangerfield]

Originally Posted by ThurgreedMarshall

How so? He's already known for saying stupid shit. He's sure to screw up plenty, but in relatively minor ways. And compared to Trump, he's going to seem like the most eloquent motherfucker ever. I think he's going to crush Trump.

TM

I agree he'll crush Trump. He'd have crushed Trump in 2016. But will he survive the brutalizing he's going to get from the progressives and Bernie Bros on the road there?

ETA: He'll also be the strongest foreign policy President we've had since HW. For the .005% of America that cares about that.

[Adder]

Originally Posted by ThurgreedMarshall

How so? He's already known for saying stupid shit. He's sure to screw up plenty, but in relatively minor ways. And compared to Trump, he's going to seem like the most eloquent motherfucker ever. I think he's going to crush Trump.

TM

Anyone not named Tulsi should crush Trump, but in his case, he's got a track record that doesn't look great, he's a gaffe machine and he's old. Having been VP makes him somewhat more viable, but he'd still the guy who has run several times before without any traction at all. If he gets in, he will be a weak front runner and I think he will fizzle out.

[ThurgreedMarshall]

Originally Posted by Adder

Anyone not named Tulsi should crush Trump, but in his case, he's got a track record that doesn't look great, he's a gaffe machine and he's old. Having been VP makes him somewhat more viable, but he'd still the guy who has run several times before without any traction at all. If he gets in, he will be a weak front runner and I think he will fizzle out.

The age thing means nothing this election. As I said, his gaffes pale in comparison to Trump's constant stream of stupidity. He's a part of the Obama team that people yearn for, but he's white, so he won't offend the kinda racist element he'll need. I'm not sure why you think he'll be a weak front runner since he's currently crushing Trump by 11 points. He's got a great story of service and a son who recently died. Oh, and he's not a woman so he won't be totally irration...[couldn't even finish that one].

TM

[Tyrone Slothrop]

Originally Posted by ThurgreedMarshall

How so? He's already known for saying stupid shit. He's sure to screw up plenty, but in relatively minor ways. And compared to Trump, he's going to seem like the most eloquent motherfucker ever. I think he's going to crush Trump.

I think he would beat Trump, but I think he will do poorly in the Democratic primary. He will start with a lot of support and it will fritter away. He's just not that good a retail politician. He has run for President before and underperformed. He is going to seem like yesterday's news in comparison with a number of other people in the race.

[ThurgreedMarshall]

Originally Posted by Tyrone Slothrop

I think he would beat Trump, but I think he will do poorly in the Democratic primary. He will start with a lot of support and it will fritter away. He's just not that good a retail politician. He has run for President before and underperformed. He is going to seem like yesterday's news in comparison with a number of other people in the race.

Fair enough. I think people are looking for stability (and his ties to Obama and his experience give him that even if he's gaffe-prone) and someone they know this time around, though.

This kid out of Indiana is showing well, as is Beto. But I think Biden locks it up early as frontrunner and picks someone exciting to run with him. Bernie, Warren, Castro, Gillibrand, Gabbard, and Booker aren't going anywhere. And I think Harris, Klobuchar, and Abrams are "interviewing" for Cabinet/Administration positions and hoping for a miracle when it comes to actually being elected President.

TM

[Tyrone Slothrop]

Originally Posted by ThurgreedMarshall

Fair enough. I think people are looking for stability (and his ties to Obama and his experience give him that even if he's gaffe-prone) and someone they know this time around, though.

This kid out of Indiana is showing well, as is Beto. But I think Biden locks it up early as frontrunner and picks someone exciting to run with him. Bernie, Warren, Castro, Gillibrand, Gabbard, and Booker aren't going anywhere. And I think Harris, Klobuchar, and Abrams are "interviewing" for Cabinet/Administration positions and hoping for a miracle when it comes to actually being elected President.

TM

I did not take Buttigieg seriously until I heard an interview with him, and I was super impressed. I do not know whether he can win this time around, but he has a future.

My belief is that Senators are all overrated, and the longer they've been a Senator, the more overrated they are. That suggests that Buttigieg, Beto and Abrams are underrated. Maybe Castro and Gabbard too, but Gabbard is DOA and I don't know anything about Castro. I've been impressed by Harris, maybe because she has not been in the Senate long.

[sebastian_dangerfield]

Originally Posted by Adder

Anyone not named Tulsi should crush Trump, but in his case, he's got a track record that doesn't look great, he's a gaffe machine and he's old. Having been VP makes him somewhat more viable, but he'd still the guy who has run several times before without any traction at all. If he gets in, he will be a weak front runner and I think he will fizzle out.

Bernie will lose to Trump. He’s tired iron. Warren could lose to Trump. But she can also win if populist fervor persists. Klobuchar loses to Trump. Hillary reincarnated. Beto loses to Trump. Keanu Reeves candidate.

Harris can beat Trump. She’s the moderate’s 2d choice behind Biden.

Booker is interesting. He’s a traditional non-populist. He’d school Trump in debates. But he comes off too plasticky. Be close call.

Smartest candidate is Buttegieg. Impressive, non-populist. But is nation going to elect openly gay man? He’d bring out the Jesus freak and homophobic vote.

I know nothing of her policies, but I quite like Gabbard, for obvious reasons. She’s like an even cuter version of Julia Louise Dreyfus.

[Greedy,Greedy,Greedy]

Originally Posted by ThurgreedMarshall

This kid out of Indiana is showing well, as is Beto. But I think Biden locks it up early as frontrunner and picks someone exciting to run with him. Bernie, Warren, Castro, Gillibrand, Gabbard, and Booker aren't going anywhere. And I think Harris, Klobuchar, and Abrams are "interviewing" for Cabinet/Administration positions and hoping for a miracle when it comes to actually being elected President.

TM

The primary schedule is made for big money campaigns that can time their momentum for February. https://www.thegreenpapers.com/P20/ccad.phtml

Basically, there is the usual NH/IA/SC/NV stuff followed by an Ultra-super Tuesday in which Texas and California and a bunch of other good size states all go and more than a third of the delegates are chosen and then a compressed cycle with another third chosen in the rest of March. More than 70% by the end of March.

For candidates other than Bernie and Biden, who start with money and enough support to get them in any top tier, that means winnowing the field between now and January. If there are still more than a half-dozen standing in January, beating either of those front runners will be hard because they'll all split the vote fighting for second or third and a chance to go one-on-one in later primaries with the big guys while the big two rack up delegates.

I don't want Bernie and am kind of meh about Biden, so my hope is both of them start looking like yesterday's news by fall. I think that is possible, in which case we have a race. But if those two are still out front in November it is going to be tough for anyone else.

There is another potential odd dynamic - what if we get one or more "favorite son" candidates who say, hey, Texas, or hey, Calfornia, give me your votes and I'll broker the convention. If Beto takes Texas and Harris California, we could have a dynamic we haven't really seen in many decades.

[Greedy,Greedy,Greedy]

Originally Posted by sebastian_dangerfield

Bernie will lose to Trump. He’s tired iron. Warren could lose to Trump. But she can also win if populist fervor persists. Klobuchar loses to Trump. Hillary reincarnated. Beto loses to Trump. Keanu Reeves candidate.

Harris can beat Trump. She’s the moderate’s 2d choice behind Biden.

Booker is interesting. He’s a traditional non-populist. He’d school Trump in debates. But he comes off too plasticky. Be close call.

Smartest candidate is Buttegieg. Impressive, non-populist. But is nation going to elect openly gay man? He’d bring out the Jesus freak and homophobic vote.

I know nothing of her policies, but I quite like Gabbard, for obvious reasons. She’s like an even cuter version of Julia Louise Dreyfus.

Forget your assessment of the horse race, because you're a moron.

But how would you vote today? Since even morons vote.

[sebastian_dangerfield]

Originally Posted by ThurgreedMarshall

The age thing means nothing this election. As I said, his gaffes pale in comparison to Trump's constant stream of stupidity. He's a part of the Obama team that people yearn for, but he's white, so he won't offend the kinda racist element he'll need. I'm not sure why you think he'll be a weak front runner since he's currently crushing Trump by 11 points. He's got a great story of service and a son who recently died. Oh, and he's not a woman so he won't be totally irration...[couldn't even finish that one].

TM

Trump’s stream of crazy is a feature for many of his voters, not a bug. Biden’s not armed with that Teflon.

[sebastian_dangerfield]

Originally Posted by Greedy,Greedy,Greedy

Forget your assessment of the horse race, because you're a moron.

But how would you vote today? Since even morons vote.

You and Trump share a defining character trait. And you can’t help but telecast it as if you’d a bullhorn.

So ask yourself, would I vote for you?

ETA: Not that I vote exclusively on character. But let’s not fight the hypo.

[ThurgreedMarshall]

Originally Posted by Greedy,Greedy,Greedy

Forget your assessment of the horse race, because you're a moron.

But how would you vote today? Since even morons vote.

TM