Objectively intelligent.

[Icky Thump]

Originally Posted by sebastian_dangerfield

I’ve been walking thru stores every day since this started. I’ve been to god knows how many social distanced parties. I pick up take out all the time. The only thing I don’t do is go to bars and restaurants and gyms.

Wear. A. Mask. And distance. You mathematically limit your chances enormously by doing those simple things. Ain’t fucking rocket science. And if you still get it? Well, you did all you could. You’ll get improving therapies and most likely be fine.

Pretty similar here. I've done all that. Masks 100% indoors and whenever I am near other people outdoors even running. No bars, no restaurants, no gyms. And as I have mentioned, no office. The risk of doing eight hours of face time (even if I am masked) when the windows are locked and the maskless cough brigade is circling, just isn't worth it for me. Especially as it was a historic superspreader event in March and no changes have been made.

My boss recently called me and was pissed that I was going to Target instead of in the office doing face time, and I said "That's because Target is safer."

[Icky Thump]

Originally Posted by Hank Chinaski

didn’t CDC say that they estimate only 10% of the infected are tested? So your math now goes to 500k dead. Except mortality rates are dropping with better knowledge of the disease.

And I ain’t trying to argue with you, but it seems clear we are forging on, smart or not.

That was then, this is now. Back in March I knew dozens with all the symptoms who never tested. Now, the untested positive is likely rarer.

[Tyrone Slothrop]

Originally Posted by Adder

Please let me know where to send flowers in your memory.

I think he said that you should order the dumplings instead of the egg rolls. But Hank says the mortality rate is only 0.2%.

[sebastian_dangerfield]

Originally Posted by Adder

Please let me know where to send flowers in your memory.

The disease is unavoidable, I think. From what I see, it can be delayed, which gives one an opportunity to avail himself of daily improving therapies. Or perhaps a vaccine. But I don’t have much faith that the latter will be available within any reasonable timeframe.

The death rate is decreasing, and not just because it is hitting young people predominantly.

Of course you should try to avoid or delay acquiring this as long as humanly possible. But you must also be reasonable in doing so. Being a hermit is not an option. That is no life. One has to measure the quality of existence against the duration.

I think this is seen as a manichean issue because society is tribal lysing over everything else, and this is just one more way people can pick sides and be on either team a or team B. People want to say, “I believe in science!” as a way of saying, “I reject Trump and anti-science!” as a good bit of status and virtue signaling, like almost everything else we hear in the media.

But there is a middle road that employs science and pragmatism - that attempts to balance diligence with economic realities. And it is the middle road the silent majority of Americans are following. Wear a mask, avoid bars and gyms, and socially distance.

And continue to live our lives cautiously and take the risk that at some point, despite our best efforts, we may catch this thing.

[sebastian_dangerfield]

Originally Posted by Icky Thump

Pretty similar here. I've done all that. Masks 100% indoors and whenever I am near other people outdoors even running. No bars, no restaurants, no gyms. And as I have mentioned, no office. The risk of doing eight hours of face time (even if I am masked) when the windows are locked and the maskless cough brigade is circling, just isn't worth it for me. Especially as it was a historic superspreader event in March and no changes have been made.

My boss recently called me and was pissed that I was going to Target instead of in the office doing face time, and I said "That's because Target is safer."

It isn’t terribly hard. My spouse works in healthcare. The professionals who do that for a living know how to wear PPE appropriately, and run almost risk free offices. The rest of us who are not trained in such practices should work from home, and when we go out, do exactly what you and I are doing.

The people who have a really tough slog are those who are not medically trained, and are required to work in close proximity. But I think that businesses are assiduously training these people and how to protect themselves now. And I think we should find a way to give them special stimulus money in exchange for the hazard they are undertaking.

I am also not adverse to implementation of a mask mandate. I don’t think the feds can legally do it, however, if the president simply demands it, most people will follow it. And the loss of those who will not will only increasee our aggregate national IQ.

[Hank Chinaski]

Originally Posted by Icky Thump

That was then, this is now. Back in March I knew dozens with all the symptoms who never tested. Now, the untested positive is likely rarer.

Agreed. But c.f. Every day my state reports something like "20 new deaths, 12 of which were from public records." I take that to mean they looked at death certificates that didn't say Covid, but based upon something they realize it likely was. So now you got deaths added in without the corresponding positives. The numbers are really not too reliable.

[Icky Thump]

Originally Posted by sebastian_dangerfield

The disease is unavoidable, I think. From what I see, it can be delayed, which gives one an opportunity to avail himself of daily improving therapies. Or perhaps a vaccine. But I don’t have much faith that the latter will be available within any reasonable timeframe.

The death rate is decreasing, and not just because it is hitting young people predominantly.

The death rate is decreasing because they start everyone who in with it on a big fat dose of heperin, I'd bet.

[Tyrone Slothrop]

Originally Posted by sebastian_dangerfield

My spouse works in healthcare. The professionals who do that for a living know how to wear PPE appropriately, and run almost risk free offices.

Maybe I have a different perspective with a spouse who works in an ICU treating people with respiratory problems. The professionals there know how to wear PPE and nonetheless are at higher risk than most of us. If I get sick, I'm probably getting it from her.

[Tyrone Slothrop]

Originally Posted by sebastian_dangerfield

The disease is unavoidable, I think. From what I see, it can be delayed, which gives one an opportunity to avail himself of daily improving therapies. Or perhaps a vaccine. But I don’t have much faith that the latter will be available within any reasonable timeframe.

The death rate is decreasing, and not just because it is hitting young people predominantly.

Of course you should try to avoid or delay acquiring this as long as humanly possible. But you must also be reasonable in doing so. Being a hermit is not an option. That is no life. One has to measure the quality of existence against the duration.

The people who are doing stupid stuff are doing it because they think, if x is safe then y is safe. The people who are smarter are thinking, I only want to take so much risk, so if I'm going to do x this week then maybe I don't do y.

I think this is seen as a manichean issue because society is tribal lysing over everything else, and this is just one more way people can pick sides and be on either team a or team B. People want to say, “I believe in science!” as a way of saying, “I reject Trump and anti-science!” as a good bit of status and virtue signaling, like almost everything else we hear in the media.

I think you are responding to types of media that present "both sides" and play up political conflict. In real life, there is a much wider assortment of views. I was in Home Depot a few weeks ago and a guy (with a mask on) was getting in my space -- insistent standing next to me on top of one of those decals on the floor telling people to space. When I asked him to give me some room, he started telling me about how everyone is brainwashed and hysterical. Whatever, pal. He wasn't Trumpy, he just needed to be better than everyone else in his own way.

But there is a middle road that employs science and pragmatism - that attempts to balance diligence with economic realities. And it is the middle road the silent majority of Americans are following. Wear a mask, avoid bars and gyms, and socially distance.

It would be nice if the silent majority of Americans were doing that. There are a lot of places where no one is masking.

[sebastian_dangerfield]

The people who are doing stupid stuff are doing it because they think, if x is safe then y is safe. The people who are smarter are thinking, I only want to take so much risk, so if I'm going to do x this week then maybe I don't do y.

If x is safe and y is not, you never, any week, do y. But go ahead and do x all you like.

I think you are responding to types of media that present "both sides" and play up political conflict. In real life, there is a much wider assortment of views. I was in Home Depot a few weeks ago and a guy (with a mask on) was getting in my space -- insistent standing next to me on top of one of those decals on the floor telling people to space. When I asked him to give me some room, he started telling me about how everyone is brainwashed and hysterical. Whatever, pal. He wasn't Trumpy, he just needed to be better than everyone else in his own way.

He's not distancing. Failure to distance is, to use the above analogy, a y behavior.

It would be nice if the silent majority of Americans were doing that. There are a lot of places where no one is masking.

And natural selection is and shall continue to deliver a verdict to them. But I entirely disagree that most Americans or even more than 1/4 of Americans are refusing to wear masks. It's a slice of Trumpland engaging in that behavior. If Trump's base is 35% of voters, and we can thus extrapolate that it is 35% of America generally, I'd generously estimate 1/2 of Trump's base is anti-mask. (But 100% of those who'll show up at rallies.) That's 17.5% of society. The rest of us - even most rational Trump voters - are wearing masks.

I travel through heavy red areas and everyone is wearing masks, and most of these people are Trump voters.

[sebastian_dangerfield]

Originally Posted by Tyrone Slothrop

Maybe I have a different perspective with a spouse who works in an ICU treating people with respiratory problems. The professionals there know how to wear PPE and nonetheless are at higher risk than most of us. If I get sick, I'm probably getting it from her.

They are at higher risk, but they're wearing N-95s under surgical masks and face shields. That's a pretty solid barrier.

My spouse is exposed directly to lung aerosols. So is the staff. No issues so far. But following intense protocols to protect against it. Like, insanely OCD level intense.

If I get it, it will be from jackass sneezing on me in Whole Foods. Or at some meeting or court appearance.

Selah... Give me fresh seafood daily or give me death.

[Icky Thump]

Originally Posted by sebastian_dangerfield

They are at higher risk, but they're wearing N-95s under surgical masks and face shields. That's a pretty solid barrier.

My spouse is exposed directly to lung aerosols. So is the staff. No issues so far. But following intense protocols to protect against it. Like, insanely OCD level intense.

If I get it, it will be from jackass sneezing on me in Whole Foods. Or at some meeting or court appearance.

Selah... Give me fresh seafood daily or give me death.

For anyone really interested, reinfections and relapses are quite real. Just go over to Body Politic and read real-world examples. Reinfections are rare but they happen. Relapses are pretty fucking common.

[Tyrone Slothrop]

Originally Posted by sebastian_dangerfield

If x is safe and y is not, you never, any week, do y. But go ahead and do x all you like.

That's exactly the wrong way to think about it. It's not a binary world, where things are categorically safe or unsafe. There is some risk to, say, eating at a restaurant, or going to the DMV, or having a kid go to school, or getting a haircut. The way to think about it is NOT: well, it's safe for my kid to go to school, so it must be safe to do all those things -- I'm going to do them all. It's more like, I going to get a haircut today, so I'm not going to compound the risk by eating out and going to the DMV. If you want to balance COVID risk and living your life, you have to think about what cumulative risk you're willing to take, not just apply a simple go/no-go heuristic for everything in your life. Too many people doing the latter.

He's not distancing. Failure to distance is, to use the above analogy, a y behavior.

Yes, rather. My point was that he wasn't being tribal or Trumpy. Your media diet may feature two opposing tribes all the time, but people are a little more complicated.

And natural selection is and shall continue to deliver a verdict to them.

That's a lovely sentiment, but it missed the point in a way that the media (for example, the local news here) is constantly missing the point. Those people are not only taking risk on themselves, they are endangering other people around them. If the only consequences were for themselves and their hypothetical offspring, it's easier to think in libertarian terms, but the issue here is that in a pandemic, sick people make other people sick.

But I entirely disagree that most Americans or even more than 1/4 of Americans are refusing to wear masks. It's a slice of Trumpland engaging in that behavior. If Trump's base is 35% of voters, and we can thus extrapolate that it is 35% of America generally, I'd generously estimate 1/2 of Trump's base is anti-mask. (But 100% of those who'll show up at rallies.) That's 17.5% of society. The rest of us - even most rational Trump voters - are wearing masks.

I travel through heavy red areas and everyone is wearing masks, and most of these people are Trump voters.

I drove through Utah and Arizona not too long ago. Didn't see anyone wearing masks in Utah. There were some in Arizona, but by far the exceptions rather than there rule.

[sebastian_dangerfield]

That's exactly the wrong way to think about it. It's not a binary world, where things are categorically safe or unsafe.

Incorrect. Gyms are unsafe. I deem school unsafe. I'm affluent. Neither matters to me. YMMV if you weren't as lucky, or you were more lucky (there are very safe schools for a price).

There is some risk to, say, eating at a restaurant, or going to the DMV, or having a kid go to school, or getting a haircut. The way to think about it is NOT: well, it's safe for my kid to go to school, so it must be safe to do all those things -- I'm going to do them all.

I agree. But I didn't say that. We're disagreeing about how to disagree with binary thinking.

It's more like, I going to get a haircut today, so I'm not going to compound the risk by eating out and going to the DMV. If you want to balance COVID risk and living your life, you have to think about what cumulative risk you're willing to take, not just apply a simple go/no-go heuristic for everything in your life. Too many people doing the latter.

That's one approach. I think my approach, which is to eschew high risk elective activities while engaging liberally in low to no risk activities, and engaging in high risk activities only when required or the cost-benefit warrants it, is preferable. We've different paths to similar ends.

Yes, rather. My point was that he wasn't being tribal or Trumpy. Your media diet may feature two opposing tribes all the time, but people are a little more complicated.

You and I may be. The person you met was behaving badly, in terms of his own risk and risk to others.

That's a lovely sentiment, but it missed the point in a way that the media (for example, the local news here) is constantly missing the point. Those people are not only taking risk on themselves, they are endangering other people around them. If the only consequences were for themselves and their hypothetical offspring, it's easier to think in libertarian terms, but the issue here is that in a pandemic, sick people make other people sick.

You're not going to solve that, so it's pointless to dwell on it. All one can do is avoid them.

I drove through Utah and Arizona not too long ago. Didn't see anyone wearing masks in Utah. There were some in Arizona, but by far the exceptions rather than there rule.

I have friends in Utah and will be there. My friends who moved there from CT will be wearing masks, and we will be visiting places where people are largely outside and wearing masks when not. I may be fine. I may not be fine. I may have had it and get it again. I may relapse (a friend of mine had that experience). I will wear a mask, I will avoid people, and in that regard, I will have acted decently, respectably, and sensibly. That is all one can do.

And if I die young, I'll regret seeing my family in its older years. But it'll be a gift to my wife. And let's be honest -- we've all had a better run than most of us deserve. And most of it's been luck. I have no business having had the life I've had. That's probably the only self awareness I have, but it's a pretty essential variant of it. And I recommend imbibing it. Imagine how lucky we are. How dare we be neurotic except in regard to protecting others.

[sebastian_dangerfield]

Originally Posted by Icky Thump

For anyone really interested, reinfections and relapses are quite real. Just go over to Body Politic and read real-world examples. Reinfections are rare but they happen. Relapses are pretty fucking common.

A friend of mine had it, jogged daily, smoked, and drank thru it, but felt like shit (uniquely as opposed to the hangovers), and only learned she'd had it thru two later antibody tests. She was pissed at the person she knows gave it to her. Fast forward a month, she was hit with it again, but recognized it this time. It passed much more quickly. She believes it was a reinfection. But I think you're right -- it's a relapse. This thing may work like Epstein Barr. You get run down, it reappears.

I had terrific sweats and a fever two nights ago out of the blue. It had been a robust weekend. But I'd also been with someone who'd had covid a few days before, and I'd just had a crazy work week where I'd slept minimally most of the week and was arguing in court a lot on some stressful shit. Mad sweats, fever, crazy nightmares, but then gone as fast as it appeared. I thought I'd need an ER doc. Woke up at 2:30 with my hair wet like I'd showered. Today? 40 minute erg piece without a problem. If I had it, it's a strange dance. Dumb thing hasn't figured out how to run a long route against my liver like a cornerback with an ankle sprain yet.