Objectively intelligent.

[Hank Chinaski]

Originally Posted by LessinSF

How does it help? It slows transmission of what will be transmitted eventually. Once we are ready to handle the cases, there is no reason whatsoever that anyone needs to wear a mask.

I have heard from everywhere, there will be more waves/peaks. Ty/Icky, why isn’t Less right? We are just delaying aren’t we? Maybe there is value to delaying, but you don't seem to offer any way to quantify when that value goes away.

[Icky Thump]

Originally Posted by LessinSF

How does it help? It slows transmission of what will be transmitted eventually. Once we are ready to handle the cases, there is no reason whatsoever that anyone needs to wear a mask.

Same reason people don't lick toilet seats, or eat raw chicken, touch fire, or drink bleach. The same reason you wear a mask to prevent transmission of the flu, colds, etc.

You wear a mask to prevent disease. And if you want go full on and say "Freedom" you aren't free to drive 120, park in a handicapped zone, shit on the street -- oh well most places.

[Icky Thump]

Originally Posted by LessinSF

We are not 1918, and, even if, get on with it once we have the healthcare infrastructure to handle it.

Because we don't and because you slow it down fewer people get sick and die. Simple stuff.

I mean "get it eventually" is an offshoot of

[sebastian_dangerfield]

Originally Posted by LessinSF

How does it help? It slows transmission of what will be transmitted eventually. Once we are ready to handle the cases, there is no reason whatsoever that anyone needs to wear a mask.

Viruses weaken as they age and mutate. To the extent masks pare transmission, they protect against HC workers being inundated with cases and allow for transmission of lower grade mutations. This slows herd immunity a bit, but it’s a needed caution.

The goal is to let as many as possible be infected to develop herd immunity without overwhelming the HC system.

The problem with the debate right now is an alternate goal exists: Minimizing exposure while waiting for testing (necessary, but also a canard, as it’s not a fix for obvious reasons) and/or therapy or vaccine.

The latter is fanciful, the former the lousy but realistic necessary fix. But those in the latter camp are not going down without a fight. They have Bill Gates and everybody else who doesn’t have to care about the economy behind them.

The pragmatic science, mortgage defaults slamming the market, and the white collar layoffs ripping thru the FIRE industries have already started to choose winner: Easing of lockdowns.

This debate ended a week ago when Trump announced we’d start reopening. What you’re reading here is the really drunk guests at the end of the night arguing about whether Tom and Mary should’ve gotten married. Guess what? Tom and Mary did, and now they’re on their honeymoon. Wish them luck!

[sebastian_dangerfield]

Originally Posted by Icky Thump

Because we don't and because you slow it down fewer people get sick and die. Simple stuff.

I mean "get it eventually" is an offshoot of

Exactly. Most of us will get it. You might die. I might die.

What’s your escape route? Move to Banff?

[LessinSF]

Originally Posted by sebastian_dangerfield

Viruses weaken as they age and mutate.

Tell that to the dead from the second wave in 1918.

The goal is to let as many as possible be infected to develop herd immunity without overwhelming the HC system.

I think I said that in many fewer words.

[LessinSF]

Originally Posted by LessinSF

Was $5 billion enough? https://lawandcrime.com/lawsuit/fede...SEtsFuC-5W9yws

To answer my own question, no. Maybe $50 billion. 10% of market cap. Maybe then the board and shareholders would ask questions.

[Tyrone Slothrop]

Originally Posted by sebastian_dangerfield

1. We’re talking about the % of people the disease kills. The WTC analogy is inapt and you know it.

If the virus kills people by filling up hospitals with Covid patients such that other people die, those people are just as dead as if they jumped from a high rise.

2. We are not waiting and cannot wait for contact tracing. Drive that through your skull. We don’t have that kind of time. (Don’t like that? Take it up with those lenders you’re so keen on protecting. Ask them how they’ll feel about choking down six months of 20% default rates. Get back to me with their responses.)

It's not the contact tracing that takes the time, it's the lack of testing.

3. If we were talking about the death rate from the flu, I would absolutely include the analysis of co-morbidities, along with all other adjustments.

Then pretend I posted your last post and go explain why it's wrong.

4. I’m not saying fuck it, let’s go. You continually ignore that because you can’t deal with the fact that I am actually arguing for continuing social distancing as much as possible. If you wish to argue with the “fuck it, let’s go” point, argue with Less.

I'm not sure what you're arguing for now. But I was responding to what was actually in the article you posted.

5. 500,000 dead is nothing compared to what you’ll get if we don’t start incrementally, carefully, reopening. You’re one of the dimwits who’s only looking at the immediate health crisis side of the ledger. Wanna know what a depression is? A fucking health crisis. Mass death over a longer time period. You’re so myopically focused you don’t even see that all you’re doing is shifting the dates of deaths. X over near term vs. XXX over the longer.

You said this before, and I asked you to explain how you get the bigger death rates from the economic depression, which we are going to have anyway if governments open up too soon and a lot of people die.

ETA: You haven’t said as much, but I’d assume you favor a one size fits all approach. Please tell m I’m wrong and you’re not dumb enough to think we need to keep Bumfuck Falls, SD on lockdown until the numbers fall in Maryland.

I've already said that, so sure. I am reasonably optimistic that my state will manage the testing and contact tracing before other states, and it would be easier to police our borders than yours.

ETA2: Thus is all academic. It’s reopening incrementally starting next month whether you like it or not. I hope it opens slowly and carefully, but Less may be predicting the future more accurately.

Whatever, dude. If that's true, not sure why you posted that article.

[sebastian_dangerfield]

Originally Posted by Tyrone Slothrop

If the virus kills people by filling up hospitals with Covid patients such that other people die, those people are just as dead as if they jumped from a high rise.



It's not the contact tracing that takes the time, it's the lack of testing.



Then pretend I posted your last post and go explain why it's wrong.



I'm not sure what you're arguing for now. But I was responding to what was actually in the article you posted.



You said this before, and I asked you to explain how you get the bigger death rates from the economic depression, which we are going to have anyway if governments open up too soon and a lot of people die.



I've already said that, so sure. I am reasonably optimistic that my state will manage the testing and contact tracing before other states, and it would be easier to police our borders than yours.



Whatever, dude. If that's true, not sure why you posted that article.

Your response to my #5 point is the only thing of relevance in this reply. I’ve run that cost/benefit in my head a lot.

On your last point, even in my state, one of the most aggressively locked down in the nation, we are starting to open on May 1. You can look it up if you like.

I’m eating my cooking. I’ve worked with businesses to aggressively lobby against your position. And I’ll be there in the face of it when it starts.

I’m sympathetic to your concerns. I’m not doing anything reckless. But you’re in fucking fantasyland.

Oh, and I posted the article to support a position alternative to yours. If I hadn’t, you’d assert it was baseless. And the article did not argue “fuck it, let it go” position. Arguing for reopening is not arguing for recklessness. That’s your straw man.

[sebastian_dangerfield]

This seems a much more realistic assessment than the 10X figure: https://www.ft.com/content/6bd88b7d-...9-0d5c6fac846c

[Hank Chinaski]

Originally Posted by Hank Chinaski

I have heard from everywhere, there will be more waves/peaks. Ty/Icky, why isn’t Less right? We are just delaying aren’t we? Maybe there is value to delaying, but you don't seem to offer any way to quantify when that value goes away.

You all argue against your data points- but this is the real question- why not answer it?

[sebastian_dangerfield]

Originally Posted by Hank Chinaski

You all argue against your data points- but this is the real question- why not answer it?

Because Less is right. But what Less is saying requires “acceptable death.”

Watch this: https://m.youtube.com/watch?v=Lze-rMYLf2E

Obviously Katz is right. Ty will cite how Yale disavowed what he said, via sophistry and creating straw men. Icky, honestly, genuinely, will argue “you first.”

I’m in. I’m going first. I see both need and opportunity and so I’m going to engage with the public and reopen and possibly catch this. If I’m the outlier, you can all laugh at my folly. What’s the alternative? Sit around and wait for testing and tracing in 2021?

Less is right. I only disagree with him in terms of slowing things down with social distancing as much as possible. Because, as McCain argued about global warming, why not?

There is no counter. That’s why you’re not hearing one. The best is Ty’s argument that if we’re too early, we could damage the economy even more. Okay. But how long does he suggest we wait? He won’t say. He doesn’t know.

Well, here’s a fact: One more month and tons of people and businesses are wrecked.

I should be on his side. We’re stacked for 6 months of dry carry. But I work with small businesspeople. A lot of them are fucked - permanently closed - if we go another 45 days.

So if I sound pissed, I am. I get the science. I don’t need somebody talking about what Gates said. Gates is fucking clueless. Some of the flat out dumbest shit on how to handle this is coming from tech people. They have no clue because this is not their world.

It’s hard to ascertain who’s dumber in this country: People protesting to open recklessly and without reasonable limitations, or people who are sure they know best. Both sound like fucking idiots at the moment.

[Icky Thump]

Originally Posted by Hank Chinaski

You all argue against your data points- but this is the real question- why not answer it?

Cuomo made a good point -- remain below an infection rate of R0.8 for a bit and we are good to start.

[Icky Thump]

Originally Posted by Hank Chinaski

You all argue against your data points- but this is the real question- why not answer it?

If you are in a hurry to get infected, you can get infected.

Human challenge trial

Ride the subway like the 1.76 million other New Yorkers who are likely infected

You should have let me know to fix you up with my friend who is recovering, is divorced and very, very attractive. I doubt she's still shedding live viruses but maybe she has some old undergear around.

[Adder]

Originally Posted by LessinSF

I am. At least in California and San Francisco, the curve has been flattened. There are enough unused healthcare and hospital resources that they have resumed "non-essential" surgeries. Taken at face value that the lockdown orders were to prevent an overwhelming of the healthcare system, that concern is apparently now moot..


You should be right, but no. Most people I deal with seem to think that their home-stay, mask, and social distancing avoidance will make them free from exposure. People I normally consider smart are fighting me on the fact that it is endemic. If you haven't been exposed, you will be. To use a cliche, the cat is out of the bag. But, way fucking after the fact, we have political tools like our mayor (London Breed) ordering thhe wearing of face masks for no good reason.

We should all assume we will be exposed. But with hand washing and the fact that I can do either this or essentially the same thing up in my office for as long as it takes to get a vaccine, there is certainly a chance I will avoid infection. My chances improve if my others who use the elevator at the office wear masks. We are extremely lucky to have my MIL (and her house) available as our childcare, though. It is certainly a lot harder to avoid it if you need your kid to go be with other people so you can work.

But it's funny to watch people debate whether to open when that's not the question. The question is how and when and at least hear in Minnesota, we've begun. It's going to be slow and they're going to try to make it safe, but it is happening. The firm is going through the same exercises too.

The appropriate time will differ based on local circumstances and public gathering spaces aren't going to open for a long time, but masks, hygiene, spacing and health monitoring (e.g. temperature checks) are going to be a regular things for awhile. My next haircut (overdue) will likely seem more like a visit to doctor, I'd guess.