Is Ted Cruz Satan? Discuss.

[Greedy,Greedy,Greedy]

Originally Posted by taxwonk

Not my circus, not my monkeys.

Actually, I think it is.

It's not just the Republicans who are responsible for trump. Democrats have also very often pushed simplistic solutions and used fear to motivate and rally. This was part of the disappointment of the Sanders campaign: he started off looking for a deep policy discussion, but he stayed shallow on policy, particularly when he did things like fumble the softball with the NY editorial board, because the shallow message got him traction and crowds, and he went for the gutter on the Hillary attacks.

We are all responsible for Trump.

[ThurgreedMarshall]

Originally Posted by Greedy,Greedy,Greedy

I'll confess, I think some of the Republican base doesn't need to be manipulated in the least in order to vote based on racist hatred.

They are voting for what is important to them, and it is indeed racism. They may value their hate more than other issues.

I don't disagree. But I think a lot of people who just sat on their porches talking racist bullshit had been checked out of the political process completely. Rove woke those fuckers up and Fox News got them all hot and bothered about their country being taken from them.

TM

[Sidd Finch]

Originally Posted by ThurgreedMarshall

I don't disagree. But I think a lot of people who just sat on their porches talking racist bullshit had been checked out of the political process completely. Rove woke those fuckers up and Fox News got them all hot and bothered about their country being taken from them.

TM

Yes, and when Trump and others doubled down (Obama's a muslim! A Kenyan! The Anti-Christ!) the GOP establishment didn't tell them to shut the fuck up or call them out for being idiots. They rode the wave of insane resentment, because their goal was to prevent Obama from accomplishing anything. By whatever means necessary.

You reap what you sow.

[sebastian_dangerfield]

Originally Posted by taxwonk

You can't survive on the lottery theory of success in America when there are lesser folk actually getting help and making strides. Laffer Curve and Say's Law my skinny White ass.

The lesser folk can't survive in an economy so based on rentier capitalism, much of it predatory.

With the exception of tech, not much is being innovated in this country. Not much value is being created and exchanged for money. Most of what's considered growth right now is actually buybacks, financial engineering, etc.

Nothing, quite literally nothing, has been done to ease the private debt overhang which continues to inhibit growth. Why? Because the first solution was growth. The Fed flooded money into the system in the flawed assumption it would soon trickle down and all boats would be lifted. What actually followed was a speculative bubble that enormously widened the wealth gap. The top 20% got a huge lift. Most of everybody else received wage stagnation, or a pink slip, or a demotion to a job in our new subsistence wage "service economy."

Now that we've learned growth and inflating ourselves out of the debt will not save us, we're looking at other policies for easing it. There's only one option left, and Bernie's the only candidate who had the nerve to say it out loud: Forgiveness. I think most rational people who haven't been corrupted by conventional economics as it's taught to malleable minds here understand if you can't inflate or grow out of this malaise, the next logical step is to write off some of the debt, which will allow the debt burdened to spend more and perhaps gin up some growth.

But this will never happen. It is, in fact, heresy to conventional thinking. The reason, obviously, is this requires the rentier capitalists who are doing nothing but living off interest paid to them by the indebted 80% to accept losses. The stranglehold on the economy right now is a financial system in which an enormous amount of money otherwise spent in the economy is being funneled to debt service.

I'm not going to bore anyone with the various ways we could divert money from rentiers to more productive uses - to investment in businesses that create value and innovate. They are endless. But all share one common element - they require those currently enjoying enormous profit on the mere interest payments received from the "lesser people" to make do with less than they currently receive.*

The giant sucking sound isn't NAFTA. It's the Hoovering of rents from the 80% to the benefit of a select few. We need the will to step in and divert that money to better uses.** But I doubt we'll ever find it.

_________
* Wall Street and banks generally will whine about how they manage money for the lesser people and losses to them are losses to grandma, who is also a rentier class dependent (or enabler). That's probably true to some extent. But they're the ones in privity to grandma. That's for them to explain to her (or use as a defense when she sues them).
** I'd much rather let the market economy do this organically. But that moment's passed, and that could only work in a true free market, which the rentiers have never allowed to exist. So yes, I'm advocating radical govt intervention in the economy, and a picking of winners in which Main Street is gifted at the expense of Wall Street and the investor classes.

[sebastian_dangerfield]

Originally Posted by Greedy,Greedy,Greedy

Actually, I think it is.

It's not just the Republicans who are responsible for trump. Democrats have also very often pushed simplistic solutions and used fear to motivate and rally. This was part of the disappointment of the Sanders campaign: he started off looking for a deep policy discussion, but he stayed shallow on policy, particularly when he did things like fumble the softball with the NY editorial board, because the shallow message got him traction and crowds, and he went for the gutter on the Hillary attacks.

We are all responsible for Trump.

Oh, stop it. Bernie changed the conversation. He (and Trump) have done more to alter the political landscape than any "deep policy thinker" in decades.

I agree that a candidate needs to be prepared with specifics, and the absence of policy from Bernie is a problem. But the guy only has so much time, the issues are complex, and if your goal is to change the conversation, you need to start with simple soundbites. He did that, remarkably well. Now someone who can talk specific policy has to take the baton and run with it. My guess is that's Elizabeth Warren.

And like him or hate him, Trump has pushed the plight of America's forgotten working class to the forefront. He's initiated a discussion about a huge group of people we all know are being savaged in the modern economy, but have pretended do not exist. (He's also demonstrated to me that a lot of white folks I know are seriously fucking crazy.)

[Adder]

Originally Posted by sebastian_dangerfield

Nothing, quite literally nothing, has been done to ease the private debt overhang which continues to inhibit growth.

[Adder]

Originally Posted by sebastian_dangerfield

And like him or hate him, Trump has pushed the plight of America's forgotten working class to the forefront. He's initiated a discussion about a huge group of people we all know are being savaged in the modern economy, but have pretended do not exist.

Bullshit. He's offering scapegoats, not discussion.

[notcasesensitive]

Originally Posted by Replaced_Texan

I think this may be the singularity, where every single person on the politics board agrees on a point.

So what happens now? Does the entire lawtalkers universe disappear into the hole in Randy's Donuts, with a quick cut to Hank waking up to realize it was all a dream?

[notcasesensitive]

Originally Posted by sebastian_dangerfield

([Trump]'s also demonstrated to me that a lot of white folks I know are seriously fucking crazy.)

You know a lot people who are Trump supporters? I have been encouraged that at least all the right-wing folks I know (from growing up in upstate NY, to most of my family living in Indiana, to working for Big Law in Dallas) are strongly in the #NeverTrump camp. I've seen friends/family support everyone from Carson to Cruz to Rubio to Kasich in this race, but I haven't seen a single post in support of Trump from anyone I know. It's almost eerie. But I consider it a very good thing.

[sebastian_dangerfield]

Originally Posted by Adder

Putting aside the endless criticisms of GDP measurement, how would this graph be entirely responsive to the point made?

[sebastian_dangerfield]

Originally Posted by notcasesensitive

You know a lot people who are Trump supporters? I have been encouraged that at least all the right-wing folks I know (from growing up in upstate NY, to most of my family living in Indiana, to working for Big Law in Dallas) are strongly in the #NeverTrump camp. I've seen friends/family support everyone from Carson to Cruz to Rubio to Kasich in this race, but I haven't seen a single post in support of Trump from anyone I know. It's almost eerie. But I consider it a very good thing.

Non crazy Trump voters: Tax voters (golf course people), Political people (actually hold some office or work for R party), Bankers (small, and community banks hate the 2008-present regs, and fear Hillary will now be forced continue them because Bernie pushed her left)

Cuckoo Pants Trump voters: Lower to middle class whites of none-to-modest education (I've offended a number of them by joking, "You don't really think he's building a wall. That's a story for the suckers." These people really believe the wall's coming, and that Mexicans are pouring into the country.) Military nuts (they don't seem to grasp he's the isolationist candidate). Old People ("I hate everything progressive! There's a war on Xmas!") Racists (need no description). Anarchists ("Burn it all down!")

I've seen almost no #NeverTrump people.

ETA: #NeverTrump people are probably scared to publicly state that position out East. The Trump people are "fevered" about their man, and not much for rules of polite debate.

[Greedy,Greedy,Greedy]

Originally Posted by notcasesensitive

You know a lot people who are Trump supporters? I have been encouraged that at least all the right-wing folks I know (from growing up in upstate NY, to most of my family living in Indiana, to working for Big Law in Dallas) are strongly in the #NeverTrump camp. I've seen friends/family support everyone from Carson to Cruz to Rubio to Kasich in this race, but I haven't seen a single post in support of Trump from anyone I know. It's almost eerie. But I consider it a very good thing.

I have two cousins who are entertaining me daily on facebook.

One is rabidly pro-Trump, right-wing Christian, worried about trans freaks hanging out in her daughter's bathroom (her daughter is 30), etc. The other is a bisexual, wiccan, tattooed Feeler of the Bern. Every day, without responding to each other, one posts something on something near and dear to their heart, like a little racist fear mongering about immigrants, and the other posts something on the same issue from a 180 degree perspective. Yet they never argue.

Yeah, I know some trump supporters. I'm related to some trump supporters.

[ThurgreedMarshall]

Originally Posted by sebastian_dangerfield

Nothing, quite literally nothing, has been done to ease the private debt overhang which continues to inhibit growth. Why? Because the first solution was growth. The Fed flooded money into the system in the flawed assumption it would soon trickle down and all boats would be lifted. What actually followed was a speculative bubble that enormously widened the wealth gap. The top 20% got a huge lift. Most of everybody else received wage stagnation, or a pink slip, or a demotion to a job in our new subsistence wage "service economy."

Now that we've learned growth and inflating ourselves out of the debt will not save us, we're looking at other policies for easing it.

This is not quite true.

If you recall, after 2008, it was impossible to borrow. LIBOR* was fiction (and every bank knew it) and there wasn't a bank out there that would lend. There are a lot of reasons why the economy took a dive, but the lack of lending was a multiplier.

Every single company (other than maybe google and apple) borrows. They do it for all sorts of reasons, including to make payroll, to buy materials and inventory, to fund day-to-day expenses, to make capital investments, etc. ad nauseum). Banks generally don't just lend money to their clients from their reserves. What they do is, whenever they get a borrowing request, go out and borrow from another bank at LIBOR. But during the Great Recession, the books at all the banks were way unbalanced and in order to meet reserve requirements (and because the market was just shaky, period), banks just would not lend. The effect rippled through the economy, putting companies out of business, forcing them to make huge layoffs, which had the effect of reducing demand for goods, repeat cycle.

The best thing the Fed did was flood the market with 0% interest loans to banks. It allowed banks to shore up their books and then lend out at modest rates of interest.** The economy desperately needed it. And it did not cause inflation.

The fact that the rich got richer is not surprising, but it does not have anything to do with the Fed's decision to provide access to cash. Certain private hedge funds took up lending during the vacuum and were charging enormous interest rates. Also, there were tremendous deals to be had out there for those with access to cash. Private equity bought everything and made kajilions when the market turned around. It always happens this way after a recession.

Originally Posted by sebastian_dangerfield

There's only one option left, and Bernie's the only candidate who had the nerve to say it out loud: Forgiveness. I think most rational people who haven't been corrupted by conventional economics as it's taught to malleable minds here understand if you can't inflate or grow out of this malaise, the next logical step is to write off some of the debt, which will allow the debt burdened to spend more and perhaps gin up some growth.

I think you're right to an extent. I think the bail-out should have included big mortgage debt forgiveness for a large number of people. This would have kept people from being displaced and, in connection with other fixes, would have spurred the economy quicker. This moral hazard argument that only average people seem to suffer from espoused by that asshole Larry Kudlow is fucking ridiculous when the banks were playing fucking craps with real estate products even they didn't understand (and then selling insurance in multiples on the outcome of each roll) and then asking for handouts after they crapped out.

I'm not sure how we fix our current problem (producing nothing other than Silicon Valley millionaires). But it would be nice if last century's industries didn't own our fucking legislators so we could be on the cutting edge of clean energy. Surely that's not the end-all be-all, but it would help.

TM

*LIBOR is essentially just an interest rate determined based on an average of the interest rate at which certain large banks self-report they would lend to each other.

**One may question why the fuck banks were allowed to pay their executives huge bonuses based on the profit they made on the commercial loans they were making when money was essentially free for them, but that's a rant for another day.

[ThurgreedMarshall]

Originally Posted by sebastian_dangerfield

Non crazy Trump voters: Tax voters (golf course people), Political people (actually hold some office or work for R party), Bankers (small, and community banks hate the 2008-present regs, and fear Hillary will now be forced continue them because Bernie pushed her left)

Granted, I live in NYC, but I know a number of these people and they all despise Trump and would never vote for him. Most didn't want to vote for Cruz either. Support for Kasich was highest, but probably not enough to get them out to vote for a sure loser.

TM

[Greedy,Greedy,Greedy]

Originally Posted by sebastian_dangerfield

Non crazy Trump voters: Tax voters (golf course people), Political people (actually hold some office or work for R party), Bankers (small, and community banks hate the 2008-present regs, and fear Hillary will now be forced continue them because Bernie pushed her left)

Why do you think these people are non-crazy? In particular, the idea of paying people to carefully groom large open spaces in dense urban settings to that you can dress funny and drive around in carts whacking little balls about strikes me as, per se, lunatic.

G^3 (proud crazy member of another one of your groups).