Mother, mother, mother - there's too many of you crying.

[sebastian_dangerfield]

Originally Posted by Adder

Some musing on trade, cheap labor and automation.

This comment's about all you need to know on causation:

Here is what happened. Industrialization of the huge population of S.E Asia caused a global imbalance in economic rent (the return on capital) and wages. The developed economies had high wages and low rents, while the emerging markets had low wages and high rents. Free trade and globalization allowed the reallocation of domestic capital to the emerging markets. In consequence, the developed economies suffered slow growth, stagnant wages, rising inequality and poor productivity as investment in domestic productive capacity declined.

Most likely the damage is long term. The loss of manufacturing to the temporary global imbalance in factor prices will be permanent. In the future, it is likely gravity effects will dominate forming large industrial hubs centered in Asia. The developed economies will be sidelined into services that tend to feature low productivity growth. Even apart from the loss of domestic employment opportunities, the unnecessary loss in technological and industrial capacity is incalculable.

[sebastian_dangerfield]

Originally Posted by Adder

And just in case it hadn't already been shared, TNC's First White President.

TNC:

Trump’s legacy will be exposing the patina of decency for what it is and revealing just how much a demagogue can get away with. It does not take much to imagine another politician, wiser in the ways of Washington and better schooled in the methodology of governance—and now liberated from the pretense of antiracist civility—doing a much more effective job than Trump.

John 13:18 (updated):

This calls for wisdom. Let the person who has insight decipher the name of the beast, for it is the name of a man. That name is... Pence.

[sebastian_dangerfield]

Originally Posted by Tyrone Slothrop

Found in translation.

The Irish confuse me. A culture whose people were greeted with "Need Not Apply" a mere 100 years ago so embracing bigotry? (They do. Let's not pretend they don't. The Kennedys are an exception, and God only knows what they said behind closed doors. Lord knows Joe was about as strident an anti-Semite as ever walked.)

This generalizes, but not a ton. Exhibit A: Boston (the rest of it)

Does Jameson's so effectively obliterate the moderate to long term memory?

[sebastian_dangerfield]

Originally Posted by Hank Chinaski

Bike is around $2000 and $80/month for the subscription to the classes, but people do like it. In fact a former Cali LT poster is a big fan and is on FB if you want to ask. I like spinning other than the going to the class, and running the risk of getting a bike, so this does seem like a good thing.

OTOH, 30 years ago I bought a Nordik Track. Best decision ever. Slap a TV in front of it, almost as good a workout as running.

I bought myself a really sweet mountain bike as a self-present* following a settlement a couple years ago. I think of it fondly now and again while watching Ozark on my phone while working out on some machine at the air conditioned gym.

______
* Like self love, except not daily.

[Tyrone Slothrop]

Originally Posted by Hank Chinaski

OTOH, 30 years ago I bought a Nordik Track. Best decision ever. Slap a TV in front of it, almost as good a workout as running.

I used to have one and really liked it.

[Icky Thump]

Originally Posted by sebastian_dangerfield

I bought myself a really sweet mountain bike as a self-present* following a settlement a couple years ago. I think of it fondly now and again while watching Ozark on my phone while working out on some machine at the air conditioned gym.

______
* Like self love, except not daily.

That is really funny. Thanks for not putting down "when icky isn't busy ogling young girls at the gym."

[Greedy,Greedy,Greedy]

Originally Posted by sebastian_dangerfield

The Irish confuse me. A culture whose people were greeted with "Need Not Apply" a mere 100 years ago so embracing bigotry? (They do. Let's not pretend they don't. The Kennedys are an exception, and God only knows what they said behind closed doors. Lord knows Joe was about as strident an anti-Semite as ever walked.)

This generalizes, but not a ton. Exhibit A: Boston (the rest of it)

Does Jameson's so effectively obliterate the moderate to long term memory?

Huh. Sebby thinks my Irish family are all bigots. Somehow, though, we didn't all help elect Trump like him.

[Greedy,Greedy,Greedy]

Originally Posted by Tyrone Slothrop

PB/FB cross-post: Why does Steve Bannon wear all his shirts at once?

He's trying to show that none of them are brown.

[sebastian_dangerfield]

Originally Posted by Greedy,Greedy,Greedy

Huh. Sebby thinks my Irish family are all bigots. Somehow, though, we didn't all help elect Trump like him.

If you're suggesting the stalwart "Irish Democrat" won't pull the lever for HRC in one moment and let loose a torrent of bigoted invective the next, your Irish bona fides are suspect.

Half of those voters don't even know why they vote for Democrats anymore. Tammany Hall trained, their forebears' loyalty bought off cheaply long ago, and tradition still a big thing among them, they'd vote "Judas Hitler" to office if you slapped a D next to the name.

I venerate the Kennedys as much as I do the Lord. You know that measure.

[Adder]

Originally Posted by Icky Thump

Ouch $ wise. But thanks.

It's free to go outside.

[sebastian_dangerfield]

Originally Posted by Icky Thump

That is really funny. Thanks for not putting down "when icky isn't busy ogling young girls at the gym."

I'm advised one's libido declines in middle age. They need to redo this study in five years, after the effects of yoga pants on 20 year olds can be factored into the equation.

And let's be fair -- age has very little to do with it. 18, 25, 37, 45, 50? If those things are painted on the right canvass, it's all good.

These are good times to be an ass man. Damn good times. I might go as far as "a golden age."

[Adder]

Originally Posted by sebastian_dangerfield

The developed economies had high wages and low rents

This is difficult to square with the widely perceived recent growth in rents (i.e., tech oligarchy) in developed countries.

Free trade and globalization allowed the reallocation of domestic capital to the emerging markets.

Except that's exactly the opposite of what happened. Chinese money came here.

as investment in domestic productive capacity declined.

Don't think that really happened either, but I'm not going to go look for the data.

The loss of manufacturing to the temporary global imbalance in factor prices will be permanent.

The notion that billions of people can be raised out of poverty into industrialized economies in Asia and the whole world will be permanently poorer for it is rather strange.

[Adder]

Originally Posted by sebastian_dangerfield

The Irish confuse me. A culture whose people were greeted with "Need Not Apply" a mere 100 years ago so embracing bigotry? (They do. Let's not pretend they don't. The Kennedys are an exception, and God only knows what they said behind closed doors. Lord knows Joe was about as strident an anti-Semite as ever walked.)

This generalizes, but not a ton. Exhibit A: Boston (the rest of it)

Does Jameson's so effectively obliterate the moderate to long term memory?

You're talking about a people who were killing each other over Catholicism vs. Protestantism within our lifetime.

[sebastian_dangerfield]

This is difficult to square with the widely perceived recent growth in rents (i.e., tech oligarchy) in developed countries.

I think he's focusing on the pre-recent.

Except that's exactly the opposite of what happened. Chinese money came here.

Again, I believe he's looking back further.

The notion that billions of people can be raised out of poverty into industrialized economies in Asia and the whole world will be permanently poorer for it is rather strange.

No. Just developed economies. The comment is focused on the US. If you read the whole thing, it opens with a bit about how developed economies should've employed some protectionism long ago. I only quoted a part of it.

[Adder]

Originally Posted by sebastian_dangerfield

Just developed economies.

While this can be true in a relative sense - developed economies will certainly be less more rich than Asian economies than they used to be - it's again very hard to imagine Asian economies as the first developed economies in history to be entirely self-sufficient such that they won't import goods from, among other places, traditional developed economies.

Ultimately, what your (and most) gloomy predictions always leave out is the increased consumption of huge masses of people in newly developed economies.