Doesn’t Matter Who Wins the K Race; We’re All the Same

[Tyrone Slothrop]

After last week, does Biden still have a chance?

[ThurgreedMarshall]

Originally Posted by Tyrone Slothrop

After last week, does Biden still have a chance?

Isn't there a new poll that says his numbers haven't changed? Just saw a Fox poll today that says he's up 9 points in Wisconsin.

TM

[Replaced_Texan]

Originally Posted by Tyrone Slothrop

After last week, does Biden still have a chance?

I think it probably depends on what happens next. Could be that he doesn't really have much to do with it going forward. Could be the media fixates on him instead. Warren seems to be surging, but she was already doing pretty well (especially with Bernie's health in question now).

OTOH

Biden, on paper, has always been the most electable Democrat, and if the presidential election had been held last month, he probably would have won. To undecided voters in swing states — and I always believe they number more than the political scientists claim — Biden comes off as “one of us.” It’s an inestimable advantage that Warren, for instance, doesn’t enjoy. He has also steered clear of extreme positions that would cost him in a general election. But Biden seems even slower on the uptake than in the past. I don’t believe these claims that he (or Trump for that matter) has dementia — enough with these amateur psychiatrists! — but he shows the disabilities of age.

A younger, quicker Biden might have nailed down the nomination this last week in response to Donald Trump’s predictably irresponsible attacks on him. He would have been all over the talk shows and on the stump. Instead, he has remained closeted, perhaps out of fear that if he does subject himself to questions, he will be stumble. To be sure, Hunter Biden may have been up to no good, but Biden could have used the attacks against his son to highlight his having to surmount a succession of family tragedies. One could feel this week the nomination slipping away from Biden.

[Tyrone Slothrop]

Originally Posted by ThurgreedMarshall

Isn't there a new poll that says his numbers haven't changed? Just saw a Fox poll today that says he's up 9 points in Wisconsin.

TM

My sense is that he really blew it with his response to the Ukraine thing, in a way that showed him cautiously trying to avoid squandering a lead and avoid trouble rather than going for Trump's jugular when Trump gave him an opening (and an opening to stand out from the rest of the Dem field as the one that Trump was worried about).

John Judis saw it the same way:

A younger, quicker Biden might have nailed down the nomination this last week in response to Donald Trump’s predictably irresponsible attacks on him. He would have been all over the talk shows and on the stump. Instead, he has remained closeted, perhaps out of fear that if he does subject himself to questions, he will be stumble. To be sure, Hunter Biden may have been up to no good, but Biden could have used the attacks against his son to highlight his having to surmount a succession of family tragedies. One could feel this week the nomination slipping away from Biden.

ymmv

[ThurgreedMarshall]

Originally Posted by Tyrone Slothrop

My sense is that he really blew it with his response to the Ukraine thing, in a way that showed him cautiously trying to avoid squandering a lead and avoid trouble rather than going for Trump's jugular when Trump gave him an opening (and an opening to stand out from the rest of the Dem field as the one that Trump was worried about).

John Judis saw it the same way:

ymmv

You are waaaaaay too deep in the weeds. No one is paying attention to Biden's response except the hardestcore of hardcore political junkies and people who want to believe Biden did something wrong. If I were advising Biden, while I wouldn't be asking the media not to book Giuliani, I would tell him to sit back and let Trump blow everything up without giving the underlying bullshit any air from Biden. No need to be out there having clips of him denying this garbage played again and again. Let Trump continue to talk himself into a deeper hole.

And to be fair--although I still think he has the best chance of beating Trump by the biggest margin--on a personal level, I'm not even that sure about Biden's abilities to do the job anymore. He keeps showing signs that he's too old for this shit.

TM

[Tyrone Slothrop]

Originally Posted by ThurgreedMarshall

You are waaaaaay too deep in the weeds. No one is paying attention to Biden's response except the hardestcore of hardcore political junkies and people who want to believe Biden did something wrong. If I were advising Biden, while I wouldn't be asking the media not to book Giuliani, I would tell him to sit back and let Trump blow everything up without giving the underlying bullshit any air from Biden. No need to be out there having clips of him denying this garbage played again and again. Let Trump continue to talk himself into a deeper hole.

The chance he missed was a chance to punch against Trump as the presumptive nominee, elevating himself above the other Dems. And it's not that it hurt him per se, it's that it's telling.

And to be fair--although I still think he has the best chance of beating Trump by the biggest margin--on a personal level, I'm not even that sure about Biden's abilities to do the job anymore. He keeps showing signs that he's too old for this shit.

Exactly.

[Hank Chinaski]

Originally Posted by Replaced_Texan

I think it probably depends on what happens next. Could be that he doesn't really have much to do with it going forward. Could be the media fixates on him instead. Warren seems to be surging, but she was already doing pretty well (especially with Bernie's health in question now).

OTOH

Umm, no offense but Ty and them say there are no undecided voters.

[Hank Chinaski]

Originally Posted by ThurgreedMarshall

You are waaaaaay too deep in the weeds. No one is paying attention to Biden's response except the hardestcore of hardcore political junkies and people who want to believe Biden did something wrong. If I were advising Biden, while I wouldn't be asking the media not to book Giuliani, I would tell him to sit back and let Trump blow everything up without giving the underlying bullshit any air from Biden. No need to be out there having clips of him denying this garbage played again and again. Let Trump continue to talk himself into a deeper hole.

And to be fair--although I still think he has the best chance of beating Trump by the biggest margin--on a personal level, I'm not even that sure about Biden's abilities to do the job anymore. He keeps showing signs that he's too old for this shit.

TM

He is old and befuddled. And to really win big dems need someone who responds to Trump’s shit curtly and cutting. That is, clearly be the sane one.

[Greedy,Greedy,Greedy]

Originally Posted by Tyrone Slothrop

After last week, does Biden still have a chance?

It's all early still, and he has the money (even if less than some others) to last through the first primaries. The real question is will he inspire any enthusiasm in anyone - right now, he seems to be really good at corralling reluctant supporters, and that kind of support will fade as we get closer to voting.

He can beat this little crap they've thrown at him, and he can still surge and inspire some excitement, but, you know, he's spending too much time with the car in the garage and not enough time with it on the racetrack.

[Greedy,Greedy,Greedy]

Originally Posted by Hank Chinaski

He is old and befuddled. And to really win big dems need someone who responds to Trump’s shit curtly and cutting. That is, clearly be the sane one.

See, if the centrist can't appeal to Hank, who can he appeal to?

[Tyrone Slothrop]

Hey Sebby, if you want to stop pretending that Republicans and Democrats are the same on income equality for a moment, read this.

[Tyrone Slothrop]

How odd that so many Chinese are upset at Daryl Morey's tweet about Hong Kong, given that Twitter is blocked in China.

[Greedy,Greedy,Greedy]

Originally Posted by Tyrone Slothrop

How odd that so many Chinese are upset at Daryl Morey's tweet about Hong Kong, given that Twitter is blocked in China.

To be fair, there was about a three minute delay before the outrage hit - which is about the time it takes to get around the block.

[Replaced_Texan]

Just yesterday I was advising someone that WhatsApp is NOT an appropriate platform for work discussions. We have a secure messaging application for that with the proper measures in place that we can control.

[ThurgreedMarshall]

Originally Posted by Tyrone Slothrop

The chance he missed was a chance to punch against Trump as the presumptive nominee, elevating himself above the other Dems. And it's not that it hurt him per se, it's that it's telling.

I got your point. But he's already leading in every poll, which makes him the presumptive nominee. Trump is clearly terrified of running against him. Again, why be out there answering questions about some dumbass conspiracy theory, thus giving it energy?

Originally Posted by Tyrone Slothrop

Exactly.

Yes. Two different points entirely. We disagree on strategy as it relates to the Ukraine story and I don't think that not choosing the strategy you seem to think is best is, "telling." But I do agree that he has lost a step or two and may be too old for office.

TM