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-   -   My God, you are an idiot. (http://www.lawtalkers.com/forums/showthread.php?t=861)

sgtclub 09-20-2011 08:25 PM

Re: My God, you are an idiot.
 
Quote:

Originally Posted by Tyrone Slothrop (Post 459416)
Can you explain why this would be true? The exchanges are not providing government-funded insurance, are they?

Not sure, I'm trying to figure that out. Only thing I can think of is that if the benefit isn't given, it can't be taxed (at the employee level), but I can't remember if or under what circumstances Obamacare changed the taxes on benefits.

sgtclub 09-20-2011 08:33 PM

Re: My God, you are an idiot.
 
Quote:

Originally Posted by tyrone slothrop (Post 459417)
eta: To the extent that subsidies in the exchanges turn out to be too expensive, you can expect congress to cut back on them. This isn't rocket science.

hahahahahahahahahahahahaha!

Sidd Finch 09-20-2011 08:34 PM

Re: My God, you are an idiot.
 
Quote:

Originally Posted by sgtclub (Post 459419)
Not sure, I'm trying to figure that out. Only thing I can think of is that if the benefit isn't given, it can't be taxed (at the employee level), but I can't remember if or under what circumstances Obamacare changed the taxes on benefits.

Wait a minute. That was an intelligent, reasoned response to a question, that acknowledged doubt on an issue.

Am I in the wrong place?

Sidd Finch 09-20-2011 08:34 PM

Re: My God, you are an idiot.
 
Quote:

Originally Posted by sgtclub (Post 459420)
hahahahahahahahahahahahaha!

That's more like it (though I tend to agree).

Tyrone Slothrop 09-20-2011 08:41 PM

Re: My God, you are an idiot.
 
Quote:

Originally Posted by sgtclub (Post 459419)
Not sure, I'm trying to figure that out. Only thing I can think of is that if the benefit isn't given, it can't be taxed (at the employee level), but I can't remember if or under what circumstances Obamacare changed the taxes on benefits.

I think I figured out what the argument is, by Googling the text you quoted, and clicking through to get to the National Review blog post (hi Hank!) that seems to be the ur-source.

This whole line of attack on Obamacare if you think that Democrats like to spend a ton of money and were just trying to blow holes in the federal budget. (Googling this has left me impressed with the number of conservatives who are suddenly willing to accept Howard Dean's pronouncements on healthcare policy at face value.) OTOH, if you think that the public exchanges were not designed to be expensive, and you accept that future Congresses would likely respond to overenrollment in the exchanges by cutting back on the subsidies so that they are less attractive relative to small businesses' insurance offerings, then this doesn't seem so sinister, but rather a fairly mundane detail of health-care problem that can be fixed should it become a problem.

sgtclub 09-20-2011 08:50 PM

Re: My God, you are an idiot.
 
Quote:

Originally Posted by Sidd Finch (Post 459422)
That's more like it (though I tend to agree).

Please. His response called for nothing short of that. I was being kind.

sgtclub 09-20-2011 09:00 PM

Re: My God, you are an idiot.
 
Quote:

Originally Posted by Tyrone Slothrop (Post 459423)
OTOH, if you think that the public exchanges were not designed to be expensive, and you accept that future Congresses would likely respond to overenrollment in the exchanges by cutting back on the subsidies so that they are less attractive relative to small businesses' insurance offerings, then this doesn't seem so sinister, but rather a fairly mundane detail of health-care problem that can be fixed should it become a problem.

Huh? Are you assuming (a) Congress is a rational actor and (b) actually would make that choice politically?

Also, I thought the subsidies go to the individual, not the employer? The McKinsey report, if correct, suggests that employers will save money by dumping their plans, even if they have to increase salaries to retain employees, so I don't know how you get around that incentive.

Finally, my suspicious side thinks this is a result some proponents on HCR wanted all along.

Hank Chinaski 09-20-2011 09:00 PM

Re: My God, you are an idiot.
 
Quote:

Originally Posted by Tyrone Slothrop (Post 459416)
Can you explain why this would be true? The exchanges are not providing government-funded insurance, are they?

Club and I make health care choices for our respective small businesses. I promised this would happen and knew I was right because I make health care choices. I'll explain it this way: it's true because I say so.
"you can keep your health care" was obama's first complete big lie.

Hank Chinaski 09-20-2011 09:02 PM

Re: My God, you are an idiot.
 
Quote:

Originally Posted by Tyrone Slothrop (Post 459423)
I think I figured out what the argument is, by Googling the text you quoted, and clicking through to get to the National Review blog post (hi Hank!) that seems to be the ur-source.

This whole line of attack on Obamacare if you think that Democrats like to spend a ton of money and were just trying to blow holes in the federal budget. (Googling this has left me impressed with the number of conservatives who are suddenly willing to accept Howard Dean's pronouncements on healthcare policy at face value.) OTOH, if you think that the public exchanges were not designed to be expensive, and you accept that future Congresses would likely respond to overenrollment in the exchanges by cutting back on the subsidies so that they are less attractive relative to small businesses' insurance offerings, then this doesn't seem so sinister, but rather a fairly mundane detail of health-care problem that can be fixed should it become a problem.

future congresses won't get to vote on it, unless obama loses and the thing is repealed before it's killed by the surpremes.

sgtclub 09-20-2011 09:20 PM

Re: My God, you are an idiot.
 
Quote:

Originally Posted by Hank Chinaski (Post 459426)
Club and I make health care choices for our respective small businesses. I promised this would happen and knew I was right because I make health care choices. I'll explain it this way: it's true because I say so.
"you can keep your health care" was obama's first complete big lie.

I thought "I will close Gitmo" was the first?

Hank Chinaski 09-20-2011 09:27 PM

Re: My God, you are an idiot.
 
Quote:

Originally Posted by sgtclub (Post 459429)
I thought "I will close Gitmo" was the first?

that wasn't a lie. Before he learned what scum was held there he meant he intended to release them, then he learned they couldn't be.

Tyrone Slothrop 09-20-2011 10:46 PM

Re: My God, you are an idiot.
 
Quote:

Originally Posted by sgtclub (Post 459425)
Huh? Are you assuming (a) Congress is a rational actor and (b) actually would make that choice politically?

Also, I thought the subsidies go to the individual, not the employer? The McKinsey report, if correct, suggests that employers will save money by dumping their plans, even if they have to increase salaries to retain employees, so I don't know how you get around that incentive.

Finally, my suspicious side thinks this is a result some proponents on HCR wanted all along.

There have been any number of people who have debunked conclusions in the McKinsey report, which appears to have been particularly speculative.

Some HCR proponents would have liked single-payer, and to the extent that you are suggesting that this can be understood as a step in that direction, then perhaps they would like this. But the White House and most Democrats did not go there, and they designed a bill that was supposed to work differently. No doubt some of it won't work as designed.

It would be interesting to see someone who knows a little about the subject respond to the fervid speculations in the NRO post.

Conspiracy theorists may think that HRC was designed to waste money, but if the Democrats had really wanted to do that, they wouldn't have tried to offset spending. Maybe they didn't get the mix right, but the notion that there was a grand plan to cloak hidden spending increases doesn't make sense, since the people whose votes were being sought on the margin were in the conservative half of the Senate, like Ben Nelson and Olympia Snowe. Or were they in on the conspiracy?

Tyrone Slothrop 09-20-2011 10:48 PM

Re: My God, you are an idiot.
 
Quote:

Originally Posted by Hank Chinaski (Post 459430)
that wasn't a lie. Before he learned what scum was held there he meant he intended to release them, then he learned they couldn't be because Congress wouldn't let prisoners be transferred to the United States and foreign governments didn't want them.

Added the rest of that sentence for you.

Tyrone Slothrop 09-20-2011 10:49 PM

Re: My God, you are an idiot.
 
Quote:

Originally Posted by Hank Chinaski (Post 459427)
future congresses won't get to vote on it, unless obama loses...

Because Obama is going to dissolve Congress in his second term and rule through the UN?

Quote:

Originally Posted by Hank Chinaski (Post 459427)
...and the thing is repealed before it's killed by the surpremes.

Ah, maybe so. A Court that was reached out to decide the 2000 election might be happy to decide this too.

Hank Chinaski 09-20-2011 10:52 PM

Re: My God, you are an idiot.
 
Quote:

Originally Posted by Tyrone Slothrop (Post 459432)
Added the rest of that sentence for you.

funny you abuse your powers to make a point about governments abusing their powers. sad sad sad.

Hank Chinaski 09-20-2011 10:54 PM

Re: My God, you are an idiot.
 
Quote:

Originally Posted by Tyrone Slothrop (Post 459433)
Because Obama is going to dissolve Congress in his second term and rule through the UN?



Ah, maybe so. A Court that was reached out to decide the 2000 election might be happy to decide this too.

you trusted the fat weird four eyed guy looking for chads over the Supreme Court?

you do hate America.

Hank Chinaski 09-20-2011 10:55 PM

Re: My God, you are an idiot.
 
Quote:

Originally Posted by Tyrone Slothrop (Post 459431)

It would be interesting to see someone who knows a little about the subject respond to the fervid speculations in the NRO post.

smh

Tyrone Slothrop 09-20-2011 11:37 PM

Re: My God, you are an idiot.
 
Quote:

Originally Posted by Hank Chinaski (Post 459435)
funny you abuse your powers to make a point about governments abusing their powers. sad sad sad.

That would have been ironic, but I didn't abuse any powers. I just quoted your post, added language to the quoted, and then pointed it out.

Tyrone Slothrop 09-20-2011 11:38 PM

Re: My God, you are an idiot.
 
Quote:

Originally Posted by Hank Chinaski (Post 459436)
you trusted the fat weird four eyed guy looking for chads over the Supreme Court?

you do hate America.

Whether or not I trust him, that's the government the framers designed in the Constitution. But your point that the Court is free to substitute it's own judgment about what's best is well taken.

Tyrone Slothrop 09-20-2011 11:41 PM

Re: My God, you are an idiot.
 
Quote:

Originally Posted by Hank Chinaski (Post 459437)
smh

I was waiting for you to come along and make a point about club getting all excited about a blog post, but you weren't showing so I finally just said it myself. Sorry to steal your thunder.

sgtclub 09-21-2011 12:11 AM

Re: My God, you are an idiot.
 
Quote:

Originally Posted by Tyrone Slothrop (Post 459431)
There have been any number of people who have debunked conclusions in the McKinsey report, which appears to have been particularly speculative.

Funny how quick you are to latch on to them, but anyone debunking a position favorable to HCR is viewed suspiciously. Sorry, I trust McKinsey over the OMB and other less reputable studies. The only one that I have seen favorable to HCR that I give any credence to is Rand.

Quote:

Some HCR proponents would have liked single-payer, and to the extent that you are suggesting that this can be understood as a step in that direction, then perhaps they would like this. But the White House and most Democrats did not go there, and they designed a bill that was supposed to work differently. No doubt some of it won't work as designed.
I don't think they have bad intentions. I think it is foolish to think government or any man made body can engineer well something as large and complicated as an industry making up 1/7 of our economy. That is one of the main reasons those like me are so strongly against it.

Quote:

It would be interesting to see someone who knows a little about the subject respond to the fervid speculations in the NRO post.
Haven't seen the NRO post.

Quote:

Conspiracy theorists may think that HRC was designed to waste money, but if the Democrats had really wanted to do that, they wouldn't have tried to offset spending. Maybe they didn't get the mix right, but the notion that there was a grand plan to cloak hidden spending increases doesn't make sense, since the people whose votes were being sought on the margin were in the conservative half of the Senate, like Ben Nelson and Olympia Snowe. Or were they in on the conspiracy?
Who thinks that Ds designed this to waste money? That is foolish. I do think some Ds were in favor to give the government a bigger role/increase its power, but I don't think anyone had the goal of wasting money.

Tyrone Slothrop 09-21-2011 12:34 AM

Re: My God, you are an idiot.
 
Quote:

Originally Posted by sgtclub (Post 459443)
Funny how quick you are to latch on to them, but anyone debunking a position favorable to HCR is viewed suspiciously. Sorry, I trust McKinsey over the OMB and other less reputable studies. The only one that I have seen favorable to HCR that I give any credence to is Rand.

Maybe so, but what I am trying to say is that I have seen much discussion of the merits of the McKinsey report which makes it look pretty sloppy. YMMV.

[eta: Here's one example that I found in ten seconds by searching (Bing, Adder) for "mckinsey health care report." IIRC, there was more in the following days.]

Quote:

I don't think they have bad intentions. I think it is foolish to think government or any man made body can engineer well something as large and complicated as an industry making up 1/7 of our economy. That is one of the main reasons those like me are so strongly against it.
Healthcare already is comprehensively regulated by the government, and will be in this country, because people do not want to be exposed to a free market in health care. Most people really do not like the information assymetries and they are risk averse. So that ship has sailed. The question is how to make it work well.

Quote:

Haven't seen the NRO post.
What you posted is based on it. If you follow the links, that's where the analysis is.

And it's from last January, so it's not new.

Quote:

Who thinks that Ds designed this to waste money? That is foolish. I do think some Ds were in favor to give the government a bigger role/increase its power, but I don't think anyone had the goal of wasting money.
OK.

Tyrone Slothrop 09-21-2011 01:19 AM

Re: My God, you are an idiot.
 

The Austrian School 1, reality 0
.

LessinSF 09-21-2011 02:49 AM

Re: My God, you are an idiot.
 
Quote:

Originally Posted by Tyrone Slothrop (Post 459445)

Dude, i'm at a bar. Can i get a summary of that?

LessinSF 09-21-2011 02:55 AM

Re: My God, you are an idiot.
 
Quote:

Originally Posted by Hank Chinaski (Post 459430)
that wasn't a lie. Before he learned what scum was held there he meant he intended to release them, then he learned they couldn't be.

I refuse to accept this "presidents get a secret book when they take office that convinces them to change their lifelong beliefs in right, wrong, criminal justice, constitutional law, etc. If i am wrong, every premise of our country, society, and culture is a fraud. Jeremy Bentham won.

Hank Chinaski 09-21-2011 07:33 AM

Re: My God, you are an idiot.
 
Quote:

Originally Posted by LessinSF (Post 459447)
I refuse to accept this "presidents get a secret book when they take office that convinces them to change their lifelong beliefs in right, wrong, criminal justice, constitutional law, etc. If i am wrong, every premise of our country, society, and culture is a fraud. Jeremy Bentham won.

Have you noticed how we never hear about some terrorist leader being caught since Obama took over? They always seem to get killed. Curious, isn't it?

Adder 09-21-2011 08:31 AM

Re: My God, you are an idiot.
 
Quote:

Originally Posted by sgtclub (Post 459443)
Sorry, I trust McKinsey over the OMB and other less reputable studies.

There is an organization less rotatable than McKinsey? Really? I take it you've never worked with them? Or is there some reason to think this isn't their usual short-sighted, back of the envelope, musings by a group of 23 year olds?

There are limits on the OMB process, and in particular where they have to accept outside inputs, but there really shouldn't be any question about whether they are reputable.

Quote:

I don't think they have bad intentions. I think it is foolish to think government or any man made body can engineer well something as large and complicated as an industry making up 1/7 of our economy. That is one of the main reasons those like me are so strongly against it.
This is a truly strange thing to say about 1/7 of the economy that was already highly engineered (half or whatever already directly paid for by the government and the rest subject to significant distortion through tax incentives).

Quote:

I do think some Ds were in favor to give the government a bigger role/increase its power.
It's one of the stranger phenomena that "conservatives" think liberals are their mirror image. While a conservative may well reason from silly abstract notions like "the government should be smaller" to rationalize a given policy, it's pretty silly to suggest that any democrat's true motivation is a government power grab. I'm amazed that you think otherwise.

Adder 09-21-2011 08:35 AM

Re: My God, you are an idiot.
 
Quote:

Originally Posted by LessinSF (Post 459447)
I refuse to accept this "presidents get a secret book when they take office that convinces them to change their lifelong beliefs in right, wrong, criminal justice, constitutional law, etc. If i am wrong, every premise of our country, society, and culture is a fraud. Jeremy Bentham won.

2. And if that's what really happened, Obama's people would be telling us that these people are too dangerous and that Gitmo is a necessary evil.

Instead, just yesterday the (intentionally) leaked (and politically motivated) story was the Obama is again insisting on finding a way to close it before the election.

It's still there because getting rid of it is hard and Congress has made it even harder, not because Obama now has secrets that make him think it's peachy.

sgtclub 09-21-2011 10:35 AM

Re: My God, you are an idiot.
 
Quote:

Originally Posted by Adder (Post 459450)
This is a truly strange thing to say about 1/7 of the economy that was already highly engineered (half or whatever already directly paid for by the government and the rest subject to significant distortion through tax incentives).

Really? Because the government's attempts to regulate healthcare were working so well pre-HCR? If that is the case, why was HCR needed?

Quote:

It's one of the stranger phenomena that "conservatives" think liberals are their mirror image. While a conservative may well reason from silly abstract notions like "the government should be smaller" to rationalize a given policy, it's pretty silly to suggest that any democrat's true motivation is a government power grab. I'm amazed that you think otherwise.
You are really, really naive. It's cute.

Adder 09-21-2011 10:59 AM

Re: My God, you are an idiot.
 
Quote:

Originally Posted by sgtclub (Post 459453)
Really? Because the government's attempts to regulate healthcare were working so well pre-HCR?

Right. That was the point. It's already regulated, and in an inefficient way.

Quote:

You are really, really naive. It's cute.
You are really, really delusional. But it's not cute.

ETA: Seriously, who among the Dems do you think secretly says to himself, "I don't give a fuck about covering more people or bending the cost curve, as long as we get more government!" The difference is that Dems think the government can help, and a certain brand of conservative thinks government is always the problem.

Adder 09-21-2011 11:49 AM

You decide
 
Is this treason?

sgtclub 09-21-2011 12:08 PM

Re: My God, you are an idiot.
 
Quote:

Originally Posted by Adder (Post 459454)
You are really, really delusional. But it's not cute.

ETA: Seriously, who among the Dems do you think secretly says to himself, "I don't give a fuck about covering more people or bending the cost curve, as long as we get more government!" The difference is that Dems think the government can help, and a certain brand of conservative thinks government is always the problem.

Yes, many think they can help. But some see it as a way to gain and maintain power by making the electorate more dependent on government. Hey, electorate, vote for me and I'll give you some free shit. No, that never happens.

sgtclub 09-21-2011 12:09 PM

Re: You decide
 
Quote:

Originally Posted by Adder (Post 459457)

No, but I don't agree with it.

Tyrone Slothrop 09-21-2011 12:15 PM

Re: My God, you are an idiot.
 
Quote:

Originally Posted by LessinSF (Post 459446)
Dude, i'm at a bar. Can i get a summary of that?

Economists predict that money arises out of barter.
Anthropologists point out there is no support for this in reality.
Economist doubles down.
Anthropologist has some fun at economist's expense.

Adder 09-21-2011 12:18 PM

Re: My God, you are an idiot.
 
Quote:

Originally Posted by sgtclub (Post 459458)
Yes, many think they can help. But some see it as a way to gain and maintain power by making the electorate more dependent on government. Hey, electorate, vote for me and I'll give you some free shit. No, that never happens.

Of course that happens, but that's not favoring a policy "to give the government a bigger role/increase its power."

sgtclub 09-21-2011 01:09 PM

Re: My God, you are an idiot.
 
Quote:

Originally Posted by Adder (Post 459461)
Of course that happens, but that's not favoring a policy "to give the government a bigger role/increase its power."

Of course it is.

Hank, troll ruling please.

Hank Chinaski 09-21-2011 01:19 PM

Re: My God, you are an idiot.
 
Quote:

Originally Posted by sgtclub (Post 459465)
Of course it is.

Hank, troll ruling please.

Adder is very dim, and naive, but not a troll. Never a troll.

sebastian_dangerfield 09-21-2011 01:31 PM

Re: My God, you are an idiot.
 
Quote:

So you're off the Cowen Great Stagnation hypothesis then? 'cause that is basically the opposite position.
These are not mutually exclusive.


Quote:

Why? And if it's profitable to do so, why wouldn't the whole be doing everything to do so?
See previous replies.

Quote:

Also, banking and retail have high barriers to entry? Really?
Yes.

Quote:

But it's profitable to cut costs, that's why Wal Mart (and everyone else) does it. Why won't someone else do the same thing after you kill Wal Mart?
It's only profitable to do so when you have Wal Mart's buying power in the wholesale market. 10X the sales of your few and far in between competitors = You can live make up on volume what you lose in unit sale profit.

Quote:

But Wal Mart is already competing against Target and Costco. And KMart and Sears (weak though they are). And against many other for parts of their business (including discounters like Aldi).
There you have a big flaw in my argument. We might have to break up a lot more than Wal Mart to create the job bump I'm seeking. That's unworkable.

Quote:

Well, that's back to our fundamental disconnect. I don't see higher prices for stuff as being good for anyone, and I'm not keen to create leverage for manufacturers at the expense of consumers.
See my previous reply asking where stagflation or deflation has ever brought an economy out of a tailspin. We need broader inflation that creeps into housing and wages.

Quote:

I'm not opposed to a little inflation, but you're proposed method isn't that, it's a transfer payment from consumers to manufacturers.
Transfer payment from current consumers to new workers, who become new consumers.

Adder 09-21-2011 01:34 PM

Re: My God, you are an idiot.
 
Quote:

Originally Posted by sgtclub (Post 459465)
Of course it is.

Hank, troll ruling please.

Trying to get reelected by giving away free shit is not the same as favoring big government for its own sake. Most obviously, the latter might help get the other guy elected.

sebastian_dangerfield 09-21-2011 01:37 PM

Re: My God, you are an idiot.
 
Quote:

Originally Posted by Adder (Post 459461)
Of course that happens, but that's not favoring a policy "to give the government a bigger role/increase its power."

It necessarily is exactly that. You're talking motive, Club's talking result. You're right, the Dems' motive is not a mere power grab by the govt. Club's right, however, in noting motive is immaterial - that even if done for the most altruistic intentions, the Dems' HCR vision cannot be effected without conceding more control to the govt.


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