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-   -   My God, you are an idiot. (http://www.lawtalkers.com/forums/showthread.php?t=861)

LessinSF 09-29-2011 04:56 PM

Re: Sorta good
 
Quote:

Originally Posted by Adder (Post 459981)
Yeah, well, I didn't make it, but power for the street light is power paid for by the government.

I go nothing on the phone line.

Face it. That is a stupid picture point. By that reasoning, no one who ever breathed, drank fluoridated water, or went to public school can ever question the expanse of government.

Hank expects better of you and is shd-ing right now.

Tyrone Slothrop 09-29-2011 04:58 PM

Re: My God, you are an idiot.
 
Best story ever: Charles Koch tells Hayek how to get government benefits.

Greedy,Greedy,Greedy 09-29-2011 04:59 PM

Re: My God, you are an idiot.
 
Quote:

Originally Posted by Tyrone Slothrop (Post 460011)
Because you increasingly have to drive on congested roads to get to your job, school, shopping, etc. We're not improving the transportation infrastructure.

I'm not saying there's more congestion in the suburbs than the cities. But it's getting worse faster there than in the cities.

One thing I won't need to do much once we're in the new place is drive on congested roads to school or shopping. Job, yes, but the bigger problem in getting one of the kids to school is that the best way is across a dirt road that will be particularly problematic in the winter, but fun other times of year. And sometimes there are a bunch of horses on that road, so that may be the congestion you mean.

But right now, living in the near burbs, the place we most have to drive are parents homes in the exurbs, and that congestion, sometimes fierce on one particular stretch, will be greatly alleviated.

I think your congestion tax is heavier on folks who can't drive two miles in less than ten minutes. Yes, they can always walk.

Adder 09-29-2011 05:16 PM

Re: My God, you are an idiot.
 
Quote:

Originally Posted by Greedy,Greedy,Greedy (Post 460014)
Yes, but I am actually in the office about 2-3 days a week right now, and can cut that back even more. (I'm also still in the near burbs, but that story is longgggg and I'm hoping the solution not too far out).

That's still 2-3 days a week in rush hour traffic than those who live within walking distance to work.

Adder 09-29-2011 05:18 PM

Re: Sorta good
 
Quote:

Originally Posted by LessinSF (Post 460016)
Face it. That is a stupid picture point. By that reasoning, no one who ever breathed, drank fluoridated water, or went to public school can ever question the expanse of government.

As I said, I thought their signs reflected worse on them ("Cut Taxes, Not Defense" like those two choices are alternatives for each other?) than the commentary.

Quote:

Hank expects better of you and is shd-ing right now.
I really don't want to know what the D stands for.

Sidd Finch 09-29-2011 05:18 PM

Re: Sorta good
 
Quote:

Originally Posted by LessinSF (Post 460016)
Face it. That is a stupid picture point. By that reasoning, no one who ever breathed, drank fluoridated water, or went to public school can ever question the expanse of government.

Hank expects better of you and is shd-ing right now.

Sad thing is, the notes on that picture detract from showing what idiots those people are. "Zero taxes" is a very different notion than "no new taxes". "Cut taxes, not defense" is the rough equivalent of "keep the government's hands off my Medicare" in terms of pure stupidity.

Greedy,Greedy,Greedy 09-29-2011 05:29 PM

Re: My God, you are an idiot.
 
Quote:

Originally Posted by Adder (Post 460023)
That's still 2-3 days a week in rush hour traffic than those who live within walking distance to work.

I don't drive during rush hour.

Yeah, a few people can live within walking distance of down town. But you're suggesting they don't suffer from congestion? Are you orthodox and is every day Shabbat?

I don't doubt we all suffer from congestion now and then, but the notion of the idyllic congestion free city dweller doesn't quite jive with my experience. Is this because you never go anywhere but work, and otherwise just sit home, order take out, and masturbate?

Tyrone Slothrop 09-29-2011 05:35 PM

Re: My God, you are an idiot.
 
Quote:

Originally Posted by Greedy,Greedy,Greedy (Post 460018)
One thing I won't need to do much once we're in the new place is drive on congested roads to school or shopping. Job, yes, but the bigger problem in getting one of the kids to school is that the best way is across a dirt road that will be particularly problematic in the winter, but fun other times of year. And sometimes there are a bunch of horses on that road, so that may be the congestion you mean.

But right now, living in the near burbs, the place we most have to drive are parents homes in the exurbs, and that congestion, sometimes fierce on one particular stretch, will be greatly alleviated.

I think your congestion tax is heavier on folks who can't drive two miles in less than ten minutes. Yes, they can always walk.

I think it's fantastic that you've arranged your life in a way that works for you without lots of driving, but I don't think the numbers of people who can do that are growing significantly and I don't think that such people necessarily prefer suburban living to urban living.

Greedy,Greedy,Greedy 09-29-2011 05:38 PM

Re: My God, you are an idiot.
 
Quote:

Originally Posted by Tyrone Slothrop (Post 460038)
I think it's fantastic that you've arranged your life in a way that works for you without lots of driving, but I don't think the numbers of people who can do that are growing significantly and I don't think that such people necessarily prefer suburban living to urban living.

My question was more on exurbanites being more subject to "tax" from "congestion" - it seems based on a whole series of assumptions you made that seem quite foreign. Again, I can't help but feel living in the middle of congestion means you are subject to more of the "tax", whatever it is.

Adder 09-29-2011 05:46 PM

Re: My God, you are an idiot.
 
Quote:

Originally Posted by Greedy,Greedy,Greedy (Post 460034)
I don't drive during rush hour.

Yeah, a few people can live within walking distance of down town. But you're suggesting they don't suffer from congestion? Are you orthodox and is every day Shabbat?

I don't doubt we all suffer from congestion now and then, but the notion of the idyllic congestion free city dweller doesn't quite jive with my experience. Is this because you never go anywhere but work, and otherwise just sit home, order take out, and masturbate?

I have feet.

And when I drive, it isn't rush hour.

Yes, congestion still happens, but not in the way it happens regularly for people who commute to and from work on normal schedules.

In fact, I got rather stuck in rush hour traffic yesterday having fled the office early and gone out to look at some cars.

Adder 09-29-2011 05:47 PM

Re: My God, you are an idiot.
 
Quote:

Originally Posted by Greedy,Greedy,Greedy (Post 460039)
My question was more on exurbanites being more subject to "tax" from "congestion" - it seems based on a whole series of assumptions you made that seem quite foreign. Again, I can't help but feel living in the middle of congestion means you are subject to more of the "tax", whatever it is.

You assumption is that most exurbanites either have the luxury of controlling their own work schedule and/or work in the exurbs? I think it is you making the strange assumptions.

Do you think all exurbs are wealthy or something?

ETA: I also find it really hard to believe that you and your wife drive to your parents' homes more than the two of you drive to work.

Tyrone Slothrop 09-29-2011 05:50 PM

Re: My God, you are an idiot.
 
Quote:

Originally Posted by Greedy,Greedy,Greedy (Post 460034)
I don't doubt we all suffer from congestion now and then, but the notion of the idyllic congestion free city dweller doesn't quite jive with my experience.

Nor mine, which is why I didn't suggest cities are congestion free. Obviously, they're much more crowded. But that's already factored into the prices of urban residential real estate, which is generally more expensive than in the suburbs. My point is that the suburbs are growing relatively less attractive because the costs -- money, time -- of driving are growing.

Greedy,Greedy,Greedy 09-29-2011 05:55 PM

Re: My God, you are an idiot.
 
Quote:

Originally Posted by Tyrone Slothrop (Post 460044)
Nor mine, which is why I didn't suggest cities are congestion free. Obviously, they're much more crowded. But that's already factored into the prices of urban residential real estate, which is generally more expensive than in the suburbs. My point is that the suburbs are growing relatively less attractive because the costs -- money, time -- of driving are growing.

I thought your "fuel tax" was the driving, but congestion tax is just another part of it?

I suspect those in the country do log more miles total driving, though am still not sure the total expense of a car in the country exceeds that of a car in the city, and, as you point out, there are lots of other nifty expenses in the city. If your "congestion tax" just means cost of driving, well, ok, great, lovely, probably still wrong, but I understand it.

Adder 09-29-2011 05:57 PM

Re: My God, you are an idiot.
 
Quote:

Originally Posted by Greedy,Greedy,Greedy (Post 460048)
I thought your "fuel tax" was the driving, but congestion tax is just another part of it?

I suspect those in the country do log more miles total driving, though am still not sure the total expense of a car in the country exceeds that of a car in the city, and, as you point out, there are lots of other nifty expenses in the city. If your "congestion tax" just means cost of driving, well, ok, great, lovely, probably still wrong, but I understand it.

You really don't value your time at all? That is seriously strange for a lawyer.

For me, the cost of the time totally dwarfs the cost of the car.

Greedy,Greedy,Greedy 09-29-2011 06:02 PM

Re: My God, you are an idiot.
 
Quote:

Originally Posted by Adder (Post 460050)
You really don't value your time at all? That is seriously strange for a lawyer.

For me, the cost of the time totally dwarfs the cost of the car.

We drive many more places than work. For us, moving farther outside the city will radically reduce total drive time, even if my commute, on the days I commute, is extended 15-20 minutes each way. The added benefit of being somewhere Adder-free is just a bonus.

Not everyone's life is downtown; you'll understand that if you grow up some time.

Tyrone Slothrop 09-29-2011 06:07 PM

Re: My God, you are an idiot.
 
Quote:

Originally Posted by Greedy,Greedy,Greedy (Post 460048)
I thought your "fuel tax" was the driving, but congestion tax is just another part of it?

I suspect those in the country do log more miles total driving, though am still not sure the total expense of a car in the country exceeds that of a car in the city, and, as you point out, there are lots of other nifty expenses in the city. If your "congestion tax" just means cost of driving, well, ok, great, lovely, probably still wrong, but I understand it.

Driving in the suburbs becomes less attractive both because the rising cost of fuel makes a trip of the same time and length more expensive, but also because the increasing congestion of suburban roads makes trips take longer and forces drivers to sit in traffic, which they don't like. You don't see this in older suburbs where the population has been stable, but you do see it a ton in newer ones -- people move in and the roads aren't crowded, but then people keep moving in and that changes. It erodes a selling point.

I'm sure cities are more expensive. That's the point. People are willing to pay more to live there. I'm saying that will grow more true over the next many years -- in the aggregate, people will pay even more to live in a city relative to the burbs. If you're an exception to that rule, you win, I suppose, because you'll be able to buy what you want for less, relatively. But given the choice between investing in urban residential real estate and suburban residential real estate right now, as categories, I'd put my money in cities.

eta: Me, I live in a big suburb, and would love to live somewhere denser.

Greedy,Greedy,Greedy 09-29-2011 06:11 PM

Re: My God, you are an idiot.
 
Quote:

Originally Posted by Tyrone Slothrop (Post 460052)
Driving in the suburbs becomes less attractive both because the rising cost of fuel makes a trip of the same time and length more expensive, but also because the increasing congestion of suburban roads makes trips take longer and forces drivers to sit in traffic, which they don't like. You don't see this in older suburbs where the population has been stable, but you do see it a ton in newer ones -- people move in and the roads aren't crowded, but then people keep moving in and that changes. It erodes a selling point.

This is an enjoyable excerpt from a 1970s urban planning text, but, uh, I was talking about the farther burbs, where, believe it or not, 3,000 people spread over 15 square miles doesn't produce all that much traffic.

Adder 09-29-2011 06:12 PM

Re: My God, you are an idiot.
 
Quote:

Originally Posted by Greedy,Greedy,Greedy (Post 460051)
We drive many more places than work. For us, moving farther outside the city will radically reduce total drive time, even if my commute, on the days I commute, is extended 15-20 minutes each way. The added benefit of being somewhere Adder-free is just a bonus.

Not everyone's life is downtown; you'll understand that if you grow up some time.

I find it truly strange that you equate "growing up" with "arranging your life so that you're completely dependent on a car." They aren't the same thing.

Maybe you should try telling little GGG to pedal his own ass to soccer practice while you and the missus hoof it to the Slurp 'n Burp for a beer and burger.

If it's only you who commutes, that obviously changes the balance a lot, but having grown up in the suburbs, I find it really hard to believe that you drive 30-40 minutes or more a day in addition to commuting. Do you like to shop on the other side of town or something?

But again, this works for you. That's great. I don't think it works for most people, who spend the bulk of their driving time going to and from work and whose trips to stores, restaurants, entertainment and kids sporting events are made longer by moving farther out. You'd know this if you knew where my family lives.

Tyrone Slothrop 09-29-2011 06:13 PM

Re: My God, you are an idiot.
 
Hey, look: It's a free lunch.

Quote:

BERKELEY – Former US Treasury Secretary Lawrence Summers had a good line at the International Monetary Fund meetings this year: governments, he said, are trying to treat a broken ankle when the patient is facing organ failure. Summers was criticizing Europe’s focus on the second-order issue of Greece while far graver imbalances – between the EU’s north and south, and between reckless banks’ creditors and governments that failed to regulate properly – worsen with each passing day.

But, on the other side of the Atlantic, Americans have no reason to feel smug. Summers could have used the same metaphor to criticize the United States, where the continued focus on the long-run funding dilemmas of social insurance is sucking all of the oxygen out of efforts to deal with America’s macroeconomic and unemployment crisis.

The US government can currently borrow for 30 years at a real (inflation-adjusted) interest rate of 1% per year. Suppose that the US government were to borrow an extra $500 billion over the next two years and spend it on infrastructure – even unproductively, on projects for which the social rate of return is a measly 25% per year. Suppose that – as seems to be the case – the simple Keynesian government-expenditure multiplier on this spending is only two.

In that case, the $500 billion of extra federal infrastructure spending over the next two years would produce $1 trillion of extra output of goods and services, generate approximately seven million person-years of extra employment, and push down the unemployment rate by two percentage points in each of those years. And, with tighter labor-force attachment on the part of those who have jobs, the unemployment rate thereafter would likely be about 0.1 percentage points lower in the indefinite future.

The impressive gains don’t stop there. Better infrastructure would mean an extra $20 billion a year of income and social welfare. A lower unemployment rate into the future would mean another $20 billion a year in higher production. And half of the extra $1 trillion of goods and services would show up as consumption goods and services for American households.

In sum, on the benefits side of the equation: more jobs now, $500 billion of additional consumption of goods and services over the next two years, and then a $40 billion a year flow of higher incomes and production each year thereafter. So, what are the likely costs of an extra $500 billion in infrastructure spending over the next two years?

For starters, the $500 billion of extra government spending would likely be offset by $300 billion of increased tax collections from higher economic activity. So the net result would be a $200 billion increase in the national debt. American taxpayers would then have to pay $2 billion a year in real interest on that extra national debt over the next 30 years, and then pay off or roll over the entire $200 billion.

The $40 billion a year of higher economic activity would, however, generate roughly $10 billion a year in additional tax revenue. Using some of it to pay the real interest on the debt and saving the rest would mean that when the bill comes due, the tax-financed reserves generated by the healthier economy would be more than enough to pay off the additional national debt.

In other words, taxpayers win, because the benefits from the healthier economy would more than compensate for the costs of servicing the higher national debt, enabling the government to provide more services without raising tax rates. Households win, too, because they get to buy more and nicer things with their incomes. Companies win, because goods and workers get to use the improved infrastructure. The unemployed win, because some of them get jobs. And even bond investors win, because they get their money back, with the interest for which they contracted.

So what is not to like? Nothing.

How, you might ask, can I say this? I am an economist – a professor of the Dismal Science, in which there are no free lunches, in which benefits are always balanced by costs, and in which stories that sound too good to be true almost inevitably are.

But there are two things different about today. First, the US labor market is failing so badly that expanded government spending carries no resource cost to society as a whole. Second, bond investors are being really stupid. In a world in which the S&P 500 has a 7% annual earnings yield, nobody should be happy holding a US government 30-year inflation-adjusted bond that yields 1% per year. That six-percentage-point difference in anticipated real yield is a measure of bond investors’ extraordinary and irrational panic. They are willing to pay 6% per year for “safety.”

Right now, however, the US government can manufacture “safety” out of thin air merely by printing bonds. The government, too, would then win by pocketing that 6% per year of value – though 30 years from now, bondholders who feel like winners now would most likely look at their portfolios’ extraordinarily poor performance of over 2011-2041 and rue their strategy."
Delong

Would be curious to hear club or Hank respond to the substance (as opposed to the politics) of this.

Adder 09-29-2011 06:16 PM

Re: My God, you are an idiot.
 
Quote:

Originally Posted by Greedy,Greedy,Greedy (Post 460053)
This is an enjoyable excerpt from a 1970s urban planning text, but, uh, I was talking about the farther burbs, where, believe it or not, 3,000 people spread over 15 square miles doesn't produce all that much traffic.

I'm really having a hard time figuring out where you do all this driving to if it's just in idyllic, sparsely populated, exurbs. You just go around to each other's houses, without ever venturing near the entrance to the parking lot for a big box store?

Tyrone Slothrop 09-29-2011 06:18 PM

Re: My God, you are an idiot.
 
Quote:

Originally Posted by Greedy,Greedy,Greedy (Post 460053)
This is an enjoyable excerpt from a 1970s urban planning text, but, uh, I was talking about the farther burbs, where, believe it or not, 3,000 people spread over 15 square miles doesn't produce all that much traffic.

I believe that. But most people who are in the position to move to the farther burbs would have to drive quite a distance to get to work, and that has been getting less attractive for the reasons I said. Which is why, as I said, prices came down farther in the far burbs or exurbs or whatever you want to call them, at least in the markets I know best.

If you're in a position to live where there is lots of land and little work, it won't cost you very much.

Tyrone Slothrop 09-29-2011 06:19 PM

Re: My God, you are an idiot.
 
Quote:

Originally Posted by Adder (Post 460054)
But again, this works for you. That's great. I don't think it works for most people, who spend the bulk of their driving time going to and from work and whose trips to stores, restaurants, entertainment and kids sporting events are made longer by moving farther out. You'd know this if you knew where my family lives.

GGG can avoid rush hour. Obviously, an awful lot of people can't.

Sidd Finch 09-29-2011 06:22 PM

Re: My God, you are an idiot.
 
Quote:

Originally Posted by Adder (Post 460054)
But again, this works for you. That's great. I don't think it works for most people, who spend the bulk of their driving time going to and from work and whose trips to stores, restaurants, entertainment and kids sporting events are made longer by moving farther out. You'd know this if you knew where my family lives.


And then the stores, restaurants, and entertainment all suck.

Adder 09-29-2011 06:25 PM

Re: My God, you are an idiot.
 
Quote:

Originally Posted by Sidd Finch (Post 460059)
And then the stores, restaurants, and entertainment all suck.

The kids sporting events do too, but the parents like them. So just like the Slurp 'n Burp.

Tyrone Slothrop 09-29-2011 06:26 PM

Re: My God, you are an idiot.
 
Quote:

Originally Posted by Sidd Finch (Post 460059)
And then the stores, restaurants, and entertainment all suck.

The reason they suck is that the population of potential customers they can serve is much smaller, so you only get the sort of places that serve the lowest common denominator. With more population density, you get more variety and differentiation and you are more likely to find something that goes to your particular tastes.

Or you can be independently wealthy and live in a rural college town where everyone else has your taste. More than one way to skin a cat.

Greedy,Greedy,Greedy 09-29-2011 06:30 PM

Re: My God, you are an idiot.
 
Quote:

Originally Posted by Adder (Post 460056)
I'm really having a hard time figuring out where you do all this driving to if it's just in idyllic, sparsely populated, exurbs. You just go around to each other's houses, without ever venturing near the entrance to the parking lot for a big box store?

The biggest are parents' homes and schools. I cannot remember the last time I went into a big box store. E-Bay delivers and there are good local liquor stores and restaurants.

This seems to be getting away from what was meant by the "congestion tax" to "I like cities or rural areas better". I hope most people like cities better.

Adder 09-30-2011 11:29 AM

Messiness
 
For Hank, I think the news that we have successfully assassinated an American citizen based, so far as the public knows, only on his political speech is beyond troubling.

Maybe now that he is dead we will learn more about his role and this will become less troubling, but I haven't seen much yet. The Times quotes a "senior administration official" as saying they were "looking into" his operational involvement, which is pretty weak sauce. Rep. Peter King says he was more important operationally than OBL, but I think he has absolutely zero credibility.

Adder 09-30-2011 11:30 AM

Re: My God, you are an idiot.
 
Quote:

Originally Posted by Greedy,Greedy,Greedy (Post 460062)
E-Bay delivers

I could swear that said Amazon when I read it earlier.

Greedy,Greedy,Greedy 09-30-2011 11:40 AM

Re: My God, you are an idiot.
 
Quote:

Originally Posted by Adder (Post 460082)
I could swear that said Amazon when I read it earlier.

Good to see my posts being studied with care. Amazon delivers, too.

Hank Chinaski 09-30-2011 12:25 PM

Re: Messiness
 
Quote:

Originally Posted by Adder (Post 460081)
For Hank, I think the news that we have successfully assassinated an American citizen based, so far as the public knows, only on his political speech is beyond troubling.

Maybe now that he is dead we will learn more about his role and this will become less troubling, but I haven't seen much yet. The Times quotes a "senior administration official" as saying they were "looking into" his operational involvement, which is pretty weak sauce. Rep. Peter King says he was more important operationally than OBL, but I think he has absolutely zero credibility.

yep. if an American citizen is bad enough we just kill them- John Gacy, Jeffrey Daumer, etc. No trial necessary.

Adder 09-30-2011 12:36 PM

Re: Messiness
 
Quote:

Originally Posted by Hank Chinaski (Post 460084)
yep. if an American citizen is bad enough we just kill them- John Gacy, Jeffrey Daumer, etc. No trial necessary.

Well, actively engaging in war against the United States is a bit different from just being really bad. The question, of course, is whether that's what he was doing and whether the executive alone gets to make that decision.

Adder 09-30-2011 12:37 PM

Re: My God, you are an idiot.
 
Quote:

Originally Posted by Greedy,Greedy,Greedy (Post 460083)
Good to see my posts being studied with care. Amazon delivers, too.

Well, it made more sense the first time as eBay definitely doesn't deliver.

Hank Chinaski 09-30-2011 12:58 PM

Re: Messiness
 
Quote:

Originally Posted by Adder (Post 460085)
Well, actively engaging in war against the United States is a bit different from just being really bad. The question, of course, is whether that's what he was doing and whether the executive alone gets to make that decision.

We're at war in Yemen? Btw if we're at war with aq doesn't that mean the indefinite detainees are simply prisioners?

Adder 09-30-2011 01:05 PM

Re: Messiness
 
Quote:

Originally Posted by Hank Chinaski (Post 460087)
We're at war in Yemen?

You saw where I used the word "question," right? What does that word mean to you?

Quote:

Btw if we're at war with aq doesn't that mean the indefinite detainees are simply prisioners?
The administrations position has been no, they are not prisoners of war. I don't fully understand all of the implications, but personally, that status would seems to make a lot more sense to me.

Hank Chinaski 09-30-2011 01:25 PM

Re: Messiness
 
Quote:

Originally Posted by Adder (Post 460088)
You saw where I used the word "question," right? What does that word mean to you?



The administrations position has been no, they are not prisoners of war. I don't fully understand all of the implications, but personally, that status would seems to make a lot more sense to me.

But if "we are at war" so Obama can kill them it seems like "we were at war so bush could detain them." sidd will make the cogent point that torture isn't justofied. But you all gotta back peddle on the bush detainees were wrong thing

Adder 09-30-2011 02:11 PM

Re: Messiness
 
Quote:

Originally Posted by Hank Chinaski (Post 460089)
But if "we are at war" so Obama can kill them it seems like "we were at war so bush could detain them." sidd will make the cogent point that torture isn't justofied. But you all gotta back peddle on the bush detainees were wrong thing

If we are at war so Obama can kill them, which I did not say, then Bush could detain them as prisoners of war, to whom the Geneva Conventions would apply, which would grant them certain rights that were not afforded to them.

The position of both administrations seem to be that we are at war in some circumstances but not others, and I'm criticizing both for that inconsistency.

Why must you try to force everything into a Obama good/Bush bad dichotomy?

Hank Chinaski 09-30-2011 03:22 PM

Re: Messiness
 
Quote:

Originally Posted by Adder (Post 460094)

Why must you try to force everything into a Obama good/Bush bad dichotomy?

For 8 years Ty posted about impeachable offenses bush did 4 times a week. I'm trying to show he's a hypocrit plus I'm setting up to defend the next r president in case he also does impeachable things, because if w had blown up a us citizen Ty would have been burning up the Internet with outrage today.

sebastian_dangerfield 09-30-2011 03:30 PM

Re: My God, you are an idiot.
 
Quote:

Originally Posted by Tyrone Slothrop (Post 460055)
Hey, look: It's a free lunch.

Delong

Would be curious to hear club or Hank respond to the substance (as opposed to the politics) of this.

This comment:

"In sum, on the benefits side of the equation: more jobs now, $500 billion of additional consumption of goods and services over the next two years, and then a $40 billion a year flow of higher incomes and production each year thereafter."

Sounds intentionally vague to me. Once the infrastructure is built, the gains from it will fade. It is a one shot deal - not unlike our original stimulus. We're not going to see that $40bil year in year out indefinitely, which is why Summers avoids offering any projection on its sunset (NPI).

Sounds like he's advocating paying $200 billion over thirty years to knock a point off the unemployment rate. That's not a bad idea. But it's not a game changer, or anywhere near the fix we need, either.

If his logic holds, why not a borrow a trillion and knock the rate back to 5%? Oh, that's right... We did that once already, and the positive effects were, predictably, temporary.

You realize Summers accidentally points out the problem with stimulus with this idea. It admits that artificially-created consumption can only provide a temporary solution because, by its necessarily temporary nature, the multiplier effects left in its wake tend to also be temporary.

...Which brings us back to Cowen, and the crux of the issue at hand: Where's the new private sector advance to bring us out of this mess for real? That's the only question that matters.

Tyrone Slothrop 09-30-2011 05:39 PM

Re: My God, you are an idiot.
 
Quote:

Originally Posted by sebastian_dangerfield (Post 460098)
This comment:

"In sum, on the benefits side of the equation: more jobs now, $500 billion of additional consumption of goods and services over the next two years, and then a $40 billion a year flow of higher incomes and production each year thereafter."

Sounds intentionally vague to me. Once the infrastructure is built, the gains from it will fade. It is a one shot deal - not unlike our original stimulus. We're not going to see that $40bil year in year out indefinitely, which is why Summers avoids offering any projection on its sunset (NPI).

It's not vague at all. He says it's $40 billion/year in higher incomes and production each year thereafter. Three sentences later, through the magic of lawyerly rhetoric, you change this to $0 billion/year thereafter. Nicely done!

eta: You've cut the two prior paragraphs, where Delong explains where the $40 billion comes from:

Quote:

the $500 billion of extra federal infrastructure spending over the next two years would produce $1 trillion of extra output of goods and services, generate approximately seven million person-years of extra employment, and push down the unemployment rate by two percentage points in each of those years. And, with tighter labor-force attachment on the part of those who have jobs, the unemployment rate thereafter would likely be about 0.1 percentage points lower in the indefinite future.

The impressive gains don’t stop there. Better infrastructure would mean an extra $20 billion a year of income and social welfare. A lower unemployment rate into the future would mean another $20 billion a year in higher production. And half of the extra $1 trillion of goods and services would show up as consumption goods and services for American households.

In sum, on the benefits side of the equation: more jobs now, $500 billion of additional consumption of goods and services over the next two years, and then a $40 billion a year flow of higher incomes and production each year thereafter. So, what are the likely costs of an extra $500 billion in infrastructure spending over the next two years?
I think you're being chary. We all get that if private industry -- say, Chinese middle-class investors, suddenly empowered to invest in the US -- were to spend $500 billion in infrastructure, it would create jobs, which lead to more income here. The same is true if the government makes that investment.

Hank Chinaski 09-30-2011 05:43 PM

Re: My God, you are an idiot.
 
Quote:

Originally Posted by Tyrone Slothrop (Post 460104)
It's not vague at all. He says it's $40 billion/year in higher incomes and production each year thereafter. Three sentences later, through the magic of lawyerly rhetoric, you change this to $0 billion/year thereafter. Nicely done!

a lot of us are afraid to criticize obama here, what with his new policy of blowing up US citizens just because he feels they encourage dissent


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