Doesn’t Matter Who Wins the K Race; We’re All the Same

[ThurgreedMarshall]

Originally Posted by Adder

I literally don’t recall when last I saw or heard from Biden (was it the debate?). A candidate who does best when he he’s avoiding attention sounds like a problem. Nominating Biden is the closest possible replay of 2016. I don’t share your confidence that the outcome will be different this time, especially because Joe not meaningfully better at connecting with people than Hillary. Is not being a woman enough?

Of course, he’s also not a Clinton, but I don’t think 45 will have any trouble painting Joe as an establishment insider.

I just don’t have any faith that the white people you have in mind will pick any Dem over 45’s racism. We need someone who is selling more than “let’s go back to 2015.”

I completely disagree.

I do not understand why people can't take into account the ridiculously insane set of circumstances that occurred the last time around (most importantly, Comey fucking everything up right before the election) combined with the utter and complete failure and threat to democracy Trump has turned out to be.

You keep acting like the 35-40% of this country that is irredeemably racist is who anyone is trying to convince. Fuck those people. Those people are fucking gone. They would vote for Hitler if he reincarnated himself as a Republican.

It's the other white people who matter. The ones in Michigan, Ohio, and Pennsylvania, and all of the others just like them who thought they couldn't vote for Hillary or felt like having a black President was just a bit much. They're the ones that need to flip or actually come out and vote against Trump. Everyone else is already energized. I don't want to hear about the young, and women, and blacks, and Latinx, and LGBT. If they can't get excited about voting against this fucking lunatic, Bernie, Mayor Pete or Kamala Harris ain't gonna fucking get them over the hump.

So whether Biden gaffs here and there during his run makes absolutely no difference. Trump says out-and-out crazy, racist shit constantly. If you don't vote for Biden (or against Trump) because Biden accidentally puts his foot in his mouth, you are fatally fucking stupid and there is no candidate that will work.

TM

[ThurgreedMarshall]

Originally Posted by Icky Thump

So agreed but I think the Dems in charge are too full of themselves to see this.

Is it wrong? Of course, we should be making these decisions on merit. But. We. Need. To. Win.

You and I are in vigorous agreement.

TM

[Greedy,Greedy,Greedy]

Originally Posted by ThurgreedMarshall

This is absolutely wrong. There is no one out there who needs to be excited to vote in the next election. If you're not excited to vote against Trump at this point, you're not getting off your ass to vote for any of these other people.

White people are the fucking key. White people are fucking this country. White people want someone "safe" to vote for. And I'm talking about the ones in Michigan and Ohio and Pennsylvania and Florida.

Excited? Jesus Christ. How can anyone be more motivated to vote in an election? If my wife were running, I'd vote for Joe Biden.

This "generate excitement" stuff is garbage. Bernie's ceiling is low. He's going to excite the same number of people as last time. Kamala is a black woman. Her ceiling is capped. Pete is gay. His ceiling is capped. Etc.

I hate that it is this way. But that is the way it is.

TM

I've been watching Biden fuck up his elections for a long time. He's kind of like the Red Sox back before they actually won a World Series - always really great on paper, but you knew they were going to choke, and the only question was how. And every year they did.

Whatever you do, don't overestimate Joe Biden.

Yes, White people are going to be key. But there are a lot of white folks out there who were a lot happier to vote for Obama than they will be to vote for Biden. Because he was an exciting candidate.

I'm going to let the primary run its course, and closer in figure out who to vote for; I'm saving my resources for the general.

[ThurgreedMarshall]

Originally Posted by Tyrone Slothrop

I think it's about tapping and motivating Democrats to turn out.

WHICH Democrats? If immigrants, blacks, Latinx, LGBT, women, and whoever the fuck else aren't motivated by saving their own fucking existences, you think Kamala is going to get them to turn out?

Jesus Christ. This is insane.

TM

[sebastian_dangerfield]

Originally Posted by Greedy,Greedy,Greedy

You're attempting to make lemonade out of lemons, which is fine, but best to know what you are doing. Those tweets, of course, weren't really about Baltimore per se.

Having a discussion on urban policies is a great thing. I live in a phenomenally successful city, one that has been blessed with everything needed to make it work in the 21st century, and still there are two huge problems facing our economy (forget about non-economic problems for a minute): (1) infrastructure, especially transportation infrastructure, was built for an earlier time and has enormous deferred maintenance, and (2) the economic segregation of some areas, especially majority African American and Hispanic neighborhoods in the city and increasingly working class white towns and cities around the city. These are huge problems, they require funds in the many billions of dollars to address in just one urban area. We're talking, in Boston, a $10 to $15 billion capital investment need for the subway system alone.

A new new deal or some form of public/private infra, or both at once, is needed. You’re in a successful city. The infra in and around Philly and Baltimore is simply atrocious. I mean, approaching third world.

The economic segregation is way trickier to fix. I don’t know how you do that exactly, but I do know that NE Philly is filled with low end labor (working class area) that would benefit from infra spending. So perhaps the fix for infra is a large part of the fix for economic disparity between neighborhoods within cities.

[ThurgreedMarshall]

Originally Posted by Hank Chinaski

Look, I'm head in the sand- I don't know what all he did with Russia- other than they met with Russia and asked for (or were offered) help- if the help isn't illegal what is the difference from just asking for help from another gov? Did Trump et al sign on to Russia hacking the Dems?

I do know this- a shit ton of people are of the mind set that Trump got elected because Russia interfered, but if you ask what exactly Russia did they don't know. And what I think Russia did is convince people like them (maybe actually some of them) that voting for Hil would be a waste. That is, people posting about how stupid Trump supporters are don't realize educated Dems were the ones fooled.

I'm not weighing voting for Trump- Hitler could run against him and I'd vote for Hitler, thinking maybe he's at least grown over the years. But I want to know facts, and i don't.

And in this whole shit storm the thing that everyone has to do is learn to distinguish FaceBook memes from facts- cuz FB memes gave us Prez Trump it seems.

Early on in Trump's time a FB meme started up "Ivanka granted Chinese Trademarks, Trump grants China something or other." And when people I know
posted it, I'd say, "you know, Trump is evil and I would not put it past him to sell us out, but this isn't it. If you give me $1500 I'll get you a Chinese Trademark. They hand them out, they aren't enforceable, but I can get you one. Keep focus on the actual bad things and dismiss this one." But no one wanted to hear it. They all knew Trump was selling us out.

If thinking people dismiss a Trademark attorney, whom they know hates Trump, telling them this, what will make them think about the shit thrown in 2020? We need people, as many as possible, to question.

I do not really know what all the report said Trump agreed to- if it was just asking Russia to fuck with Hil on social media- and that is somehow actionable, please tell us how, cuz Sebby keeps asking that. And asking Russia to help fuck with Hil on social media, while nasty, doesn't seem different than asking Israel's PM to write a letter supporting em. On the other hand, if Trump asked for a different level of "help" can someone let me know?

You are blurring the line between the general ignorance of the US voting public and yourself. But I'm not going to explain to you what you can easily read for yourself.

TM

[sebastian_dangerfield]

Originally Posted by ThurgreedMarshall

WHICH Democrats? If immigrants, blacks, Latinx, LGBT, women, and whoever the fuck else aren't motivated by saving their own fucking existences, you think Kamala is going to get them to turn out?

Jesus Christ. This is insane.

TM

She’s already having difficulty with progressives. He’s going to call her “Corporate Kamala” and the difficulty will double. I don’t see populist Bernie or Warren followers pivoting to her.

[Greedy,Greedy,Greedy]

Originally Posted by ThurgreedMarshall

WHICH Democrats? If immigrants, blacks, Latinx, LGBT, women, and whoever the fuck else aren't motivated by saving their own fucking existences, you think Kamala is going to get them to turn out?

Jesus Christ. This is insane.

TM

Because I don't have a candidate yet, I'm just asking lots of questions of different people. I had an interesting dinner with two old friends, one a Chinese American lawyer who is very active in Asian-American political issues and organizations nationally and another who is an Indian-American entrepreneur and immigrant. The lawyer friend is really charged up about Kamala, and thinks she can excite all the communities he's involved with, loves see her speak, is fully on board. He'd say, yes, if you give her a mic, and let her have the stage a little, you'll see she has the ability to reach all those folks. The entrepreneur likes her quite a lot but is worried about whether she can win; he said, if she is the Democrats candidates Indian-Americans and immigrants everywhere will be really excited, but he's not going to believe it until it happens.

Me, I see no harm in letting it play out for the next few months. I'd have to say I really don't know yet and any analysis is really a bit premature now.

[ThurgreedMarshall]

Originally Posted by Greedy,Greedy,Greedy

I've been watching Biden fuck up his elections for a long time. He's kind of like the Red Sox back before they actually won a World Series - always really great on paper, but you knew they were going to choke, and the only question was how. And every year they did.

Whatever you do, don't overestimate Joe Biden.

Yes, White people are going to be key. But there are a lot of white folks out there who were a lot happier to vote for Obama than they will be to vote for Biden. Because he was an exciting candidate.

I'm going to let the primary run its course, and closer in figure out who to vote for; I'm saving my resources for the general.

Dude, you are comparing apples to oranges.

I do not disagree with you that historically, Biden has been largely "enh" as a Presidential candidate. But applying that analysis to this election makes absolutely no sense. Fuck, "gaffs" no longer have the impact they once did. If he gets through the primary (and he will because no matter which other candidate has the loudest fans, the Democratic base is the Democratic base, as Bernie found out in 2016), he crushes Trump.

1. You skip over the fact that working class whites love him. He polls absolutely great with them.
2. Obama chose him for a reason. Yes, we all were energized by Obama who is a fantastic orator. But he put Biden on the ticket to help him with the exact demo that is so important this election.
3. Biden has been unbelievably successful in his state, so it's not like he isn't a successful politician.
4. He's got a great story (son who died) and the legitimacy of serving with and the support of Obama.
5. How can Biden, after he wins the nomination, be any worse of a candidate than Trump? I realize that the press will blow up his silly mistakes and ignore Trump's complete fucking insanity. But come on. You think that Biden putting his foot in his mouth will do worse than a black woman or a gay man with white Christian and/or blue collar voters in key states? Again, all "other" people are voting for their fucking lives. Biden is still polling higher among blacks than any other Dem. Inspiring some dumbass Bernie voters who would have stayed home to pout isn't going to be the difference in this election.

TM

[Greedy,Greedy,Greedy]

Originally Posted by sebastian_dangerfield

A new new deal or some form of public/private infra, or both at once, is needed. You’re in a successful city. The infra in and around Philly and Baltimore is simply atrocious. I mean, approaching third world.

The economic segregation is way trickier to fix. I don’t know how you do that exactly, but I do know that NE Philly is filled with low end labor (working class area) that would benefit from infra spending. So perhaps the fix for infra is a large part of the fix for economic disparity between neighborhoods within cities.

It's very frustrating here, because we desperately need, for example, computer programmers, doctors, and nurses, yet the only one of those three areas that is successfully reaching in and hiring from the parts of the city with higher unemployment is nurses. Breaking down the racial and class barriers in tech and medicine would really help everyone, and yet....

[Hank Chinaski]

Originally Posted by sebastian_dangerfield

A new new deal or some form of public/private infra, or both at once, is needed. You’re in a successful city. The infra in and around Philly and Baltimore is simply atrocious. I mean, approaching third world.

The economic segregation is way trickier to fix. I don’t know how you do that exactly, but I do know that NE Philly is filled with low end labor (working class area) that would benefit from infra spending. So perhaps the fix for infra is a large part of the fix for economic disparity between neighborhoods within cities.

The Wire was fiction I suppose, but written by someone who knows the city’s problems. The over arching point being, our cities are pretty fucked. And the system is stacked against anyone trying to change it.

Where the gov is now don’t hold your breath.

On the other hand Detroit has had major development. I think a few local business people invested and started it, but downtown D today is probably busier than it was in the 50’s. Still there are huge parts that remain really fucked up.

[ThurgreedMarshall]

Originally Posted by Greedy,Greedy,Greedy

Because I don't have a candidate yet, I'm just asking lots of questions of different people. I had an interesting dinner with two old friends, one a Chinese American lawyer who is very active in Asian-American political issues and organizations nationally and another who is an Indian-American entrepreneur and immigrant. The lawyer friend is really charged up about Kamala, and thinks she can excite all the communities he's involved with, loves see her speak, is fully on board. He'd say, yes, if you give her a mic, and let her have the stage a little, you'll see she has the ability to reach all those folks. The entrepreneur likes her quite a lot but is worried about whether she can win; he said, if she is the Democrats candidates Indian-Americans and immigrants everywhere will be really excited, but he's not going to believe it until it happens.

Me, I see no harm in letting it play out for the next few months. I'd have to say I really don't know yet and any analysis is really a bit premature now.

Did you ask these people if they thought anyone they know in those communities would stay home this election if they didn't get their way? Because that's all I'm saying. The difference between the number of voters in the demographics you mentioned (i) who are excited about (or who can be excited by) Kamala and (ii) those who will absolutely vote to stop our country from going over a cliff and destroying every single vulnerable community is negligible. That's the point.

And I disagree with the "no harm in letting this play out." Those days are over. The more everyone tries to destroy the Democratic front runner (and Bernie has already proven that he is absolutely not a team player--even after he knows he has no chance) during the primary, the weaker the fucking candidate we put up. We should have no more than 3 or 4 candidates at this point. The Party looks like a fucking clown car.

TM

[Greedy,Greedy,Greedy]

Originally Posted by ThurgreedMarshall

Dude, you are comparing apples to oranges.

I do not disagree with you that historically, Biden has been largely "enh" as a Presidential candidate. But applying that analysis to this election makes absolutely no sense. Fuck, "gaffs" no longer have the impact they once did. If he gets through the primary (and he will because no matter which other candidate has the loudest fans, the Democratic base is the Democratic base, as Bernie found out in 2016), he crushes Trump.

1. You skip over the fact that working class whites love him. He polls absolutely great with them.
2. Obama chose him for a reason. Yes, we all were energized by Obama who is a fantastic orator. But he put Biden on the ticket to help him with the exact demo that is so important this election.
3. Biden has been unbelievably successful in his state, so it's not like he isn't a successful politician.
4. He's got a great story (son who died) and the legitimacy of serving with and the support of Obama.
5. How can Biden, after he wins the nomination, be any worse of a candidate than Trump? I realize that the press will blow up his silly mistakes and ignore Trump's complete fucking insanity. But come on. You think that Biden putting his foot in his mouth will do worse than a black woman or a gay man with white Christian and/or blue collar voters in key states? Again, all "other" people are voting for their fucking lives. Biden is still polling higher among blacks than any other Dem. Inspiring some dumbass Bernie voters who would have stayed home to pout isn't going to be the difference in this election.

TM

So far, I haven't seen Biden attract the kind of support around the white working class here that was once owned by, say, Ted Kennedy, or the kind of support among my upstate NY working class family members once held by Clinton. And you know, some of them actually like Buttigieg, I've heard stuff like, yeah, we had a gay guy in my unit in Iraq, he was ok. I think his working class support is actually kind of weak.

His support in the African-American community seems stronger right now.

And, yes, running two bad national campaigns still counts this cycle, because a lot of it is about who you hire, the advice of people in your kitchen cabinet, the depth of loyalty to you. This time he does also have a significant portion of both Obama's and Clinton's teams on board with him, and that should help him out, but don't put all your eggs in his baskets until he gets tested out there some more.

I'm not even talking about Bernie as a possible candidate, let's just bash him until he goes away, the sooner, the better.

[Greedy,Greedy,Greedy]

Originally Posted by ThurgreedMarshall

Did you ask these people if they thought anyone they know in those communities would stay home this election if they didn't get their way? Because that's all I'm saying. The difference between the number of voters in the demographics you mentioned (i) who are excited about (or who can be excited by) Kamala and (ii) those who will absolutely vote to stop our country from going over a cliff and destroying every single vulnerable community is negligible. That's the point.

And I disagree with the "no harm in letting this play out." Those days are over. The more everyone tries to destroy the Democratic front runner (and Bernie has already proven that he is absolutely not a team player--even after he knows he has no chance) during the primary, the weaker the fucking candidate we put up. We should have no more than 3 or 4 candidates at this point. The Party looks like a fucking clown car.

TM

The Party looks like an open organization that has a deep bench, where candidates agree with each other on 90% of whats being discussed, and, yes, every front runner needs to show they can take the heat. I don't want a coronation, I don't want a bunch of party leaders choosing who they want. Really, that's crazy. Who should decide who those three or four candidates are and on what basis? Polls? They're mostly about visibility and recognition and have squat to do with how people will vote. The DNC?

So let me revise. There is a lot of good in letting this play out.

As to turnout, actually, we had a substantive discussion on turnout because everyone thought immigrant turnout could be an issue. One of the three may throw a bunch of money at GOTV in the Indian community. The other two of us thought that was a good use of his money.

[ThurgreedMarshall]

Originally Posted by Greedy,Greedy,Greedy

So far, I haven't seen Biden attract the kind of support around the white working class here that was once owned by, say, Ted Kennedy, or the kind of support among my upstate NY working class family members once held by Clinton. And you know, some of them actually like Buttigieg, I've heard stuff like, yeah, we had a gay guy in my unit in Iraq, he was ok. I think his working class support is actually kind of weak.

You're basing your analysis on someone saying "stuff like...?" You must be kidding.

Biden is leading Trump by 8 points in Ohio. Hillary lost Ohio by 8 points. Every other Democrat in the current field is tied with Trump in Ohio.

Originally Posted by Greedy,Greedy,Greedy

His support in the African-American community seems stronger right now.

It doesn't seem stronger. It is stronger. And, I don't know how many times I have to say this, it doesn't matter how strong it actually is, because black people are going to the polls everywhere where they haven't been removed or blocked from voting to vote against the racist in office.

Originally Posted by Greedy,Greedy,Greedy

And, yes, running two bad national campaigns still counts this cycle, because a lot of it is about who you hire, the advice of people in your kitchen cabinet, the depth of loyalty to you. This time he does also have a significant portion of both Obama's and Clinton's teams on board with him, and that should help him out, but don't put all your eggs in his baskets until he gets tested out there some more.

Dude, you keep approaching this conversation like I am someone who can put eggs in a basket.

I am a black man, with black and Asian people all over my family. I am voting against Trump. Period. I am completely focused on whoever can beat Trump by the widest margin. If Kamala wins the nomination and ekes out a victory, that's not much of a win. We need seats in the House and the Senate. And the best way to get them is to get white people--many of whom will not vote for a black person, or a woman, or a gay man, or an old Jew to pull the lever for the entire Democratic ticket wherever the fuck they are.

Originally Posted by Greedy,Greedy,Greedy

I'm not even talking about Bernie as a possible candidate, let's just bash him until he goes away, the sooner, the better.

I'm with you there, brother.

TM