Objectively intelligent.

[sebastian_dangerfield]

Originally Posted by Hank Chinaski

I don't mean to hit you again, but in a race where we are already hearing "if it ain't Bernie I ain't voting (or voting 3rd party)" this stuff might keep people pulling the correct lever.

That ad is not going to convert a Bernie Bro to a Biden voter.

More generally, the impeachment angle is weak. It’s a loser. Most voters are concerned with their own economic health. The Ukraine thing gives them a headache. If you doubt me on that, do some research on how disinterested the general public was with the impeachment.

Third-party voters and Bernie Bros are all about disruption. The last thing they are going to do is vote for Joe Biden because Trump acted contrary to establishment principles and traditional behavioral expectations of a president. I suspect Bernie Bros quietly like the idea that Trump is blowing shit up. They would just rather see their guy be the wrecking ball and instead of providing right wing populism, provide a left-wing variant.

[Tyrone Slothrop]

Originally Posted by sebastian_dangerfield

The message you have to overcome with the swing voters you are targeting is, “I hate Trump personally, but the economy is going well, and things are looking up for me, so why fuck with a decent thing?“

I could afford to vote for a third-party candidate. The majority of swing voters that you’re going to need to convert are lower on Maslow‘s hierarchy than me. That’s why I made that point.

The way you convert those voters is to hammer home healthcare, more jobs, and an even better economy. “Trump sucks” and “people like Adam Schiff think he’s evil,” ain’t getting you anywhere.

I don’t know who put together that ad, but he or she does not have a clue about the nature of the swing voters in Pennsylvania, Michigan, Florida, and Texas.

That ad is not aimed at swing voters, which everyone but you seems understand perfectly well. Some people -- conservatives, liberals, libertarian independents -- will vote for their own ideological hobby horse -- screwing immigrants, high-speed rail, a pointless gesture against both major parties -- even though it has nothing to do with the priorities of swing voters. For them, you make ads like this one. And that is why what I said when I linked to was about Democratic mobilization.

For swing voters, you do something different.

[Tyrone Slothrop]

Pleasantly surprised by Mitt Romney.

[sebastian_dangerfield]

Originally Posted by Tyrone Slothrop

That ad is not aimed at swing voters, which everyone but you seems understand perfectly well. Some people -- conservatives, liberals, libertarian independents -- will vote for their own ideological hobby horse -- screwing immigrants, high-speed rail, a pointless gesture against both major parties -- even though it has nothing to do with the priorities of swing voters. For them, you make ads like this one. And that is why what I said when I linked to was about Democratic mobilization.

For swing voters, you do something different.

The only voters that matter are swing voters. This makes the ad even more futile.

Are you suggesting this ad will mobilize people who care about impeachment? I agree. They are already voting against Trump. If you'd like them to do so strenuously, or with a kick in their step, okay. Preach it! Whip up the choir and run up the popular national vote score.

If you think this ad will mobilize the PA, MI, WI, TX, or FL voter who's on the fence between Biden and Trump, man, you're seriously high. Those folks are concerned with jobs, wages, and health care. Fucks given about impeachment by middle class voters in the Rust Belt: 0.00.

I'm an independent. I live in a purple state. Impeachment is no one's hobby horse here. The President's loathesomeness is only a fixation of people already voting for a Democrat. The refrain I hear constantly remains, "The fucking guy is a moron, and he exhausts me, but the Democrats after him are just as fucking annoying," and "He's nuts, but my portfolio is doing great and business is better, so I'll take more crazy... I can always ignore him."

That ad brings out no one the Ds didn't already have.

[sebastian_dangerfield]

Originally Posted by Tyrone Slothrop

Pleasantly surprised by Mitt Romney.

I'd like to think he's principled. But he's just being Solomonic to placate the Mormons back home who hate Trump. He's calculating. If he had principles, he'd have voted to convict on both counts.

Cynical stuffed shirt.

[Adder]

Originally Posted by sebastian_dangerfield

People deciding between a moderate Democrat like Buttigieg or Biden and Trump. They are the only voters up for grabs.

Yeah, that's not it.

ETA: Here's a hint: do you think those swing voters know Epstein and his significance on sight?

[Adder]

Originally Posted by Tyrone Slothrop

Pleasantly surprised by Mitt Romney.

With the caveat that I think he already believes the MAGA will be against him anyway (and probably thinks there's a good chance 45 will be gone when he has to run again): yeah, good for Mitt.

[sebastian_dangerfield]

Originally Posted by Adder

Yeah, that's not it.

ETA: Here's a hint: do you think those swing voters know Epstein and his significance on sight?

Who else is up for grabs, and how will this ad bring them over to a D?

[Adder]

Originally Posted by sebastian_dangerfield

The only voters that matter are swing voters.

No, the voters who matter today (or tomorrow) are Senators.

But even beyond the fact that this ad is about the Senate vote, as Ty said in his initial comment, you also need to motivate your base voters and activists. This ad is aimed at them.

[Tyrone Slothrop]

Originally Posted by sebastian_dangerfield

The only voters that matter are swing voters.

You're just very, very wrong. Try to understand why President Trump spent so much of his speech last night throwing red meat to the base, why he tried to get people excited about a column of immigrants who were coming for the southern border before the 2018 mid-terms, why GWB's GOP tried to get initiatives about same-sex marriage on the ballot when he was running, and so on. It's because if you turn out more of your base, you need to convince fewer of the swing voters.

Are you suggesting this ad will mobilize people who care about impeachment? I agree. They are already voting against Trump. If you'd like them to do so strenuously, or with a kick in their step, okay. Preach it! Whip up the choir and run up the popular national vote score.

You want to get them excited, so they give money and organize and turn out. Just like Trump is doing with his base.

If you think this ad will mobilize the PA, MI, WI, TX, or FL voter who's on the fence between Biden and Trump, man, you're seriously high.

Seriously, are you just not reading the responses to you? Like three of us have said repeatedly that's not the point, and you just keep repeating this, like an alarm clock with a busted snooze button.

[Tyrone Slothrop]

Originally Posted by Adder

Yeah, that's not it.

ETA: Here's a hint: do you think those swing voters know Epstein and his significance on sight?

Or Khashoggi walking into the Saudi consulate?

[sebastian_dangerfield]

Originally Posted by Adder

No, the voters who matter today (or tomorrow) are Senators.

But even beyond the fact that this ad is about the Senate vote, as Ty said in his initial comment, you also need to motivate your base voters and activists. This ad is aimed at them.

Then this is indeed the dumbest ad of all time. Mathematically, the Senate cannot convict. And since nobody is even really watching (again, generally, people don't care much about the impeachment), how any Senator votes will be forgotten in 3 days.

Do you seriously think a Senator is going to fear an attack ad on the basis his voters are going to decide whether to re-elect him ten months from now based on his impeachment vote? That's a bit... fanciful.

Try this message comparison on for size:

Senator Smith acquitted a con man who tried to squeeze dirt on his opponent from a foreign nation to help himself win re-election. Shame!

vs.

Senator Smith and his Republican colleagues in the House and Executive Branch have presided over the lowest unemployment rate in ___ years. Wages have grown for the middle class by ___ in the past two years! The economy is on the cusp of delivering even more for the middle class!

Which do you think wins in Joesixpackland?

James Carville would say it like this: "Stop with that yammerin' about impeachment! Ya fuckin' lost. And Nancy knew it was a dumb idea from the start. Beat the son of a bitch on the issues -- what you're going to do for people better than what he's doing. And shut the fuck up on the rest."

[sebastian_dangerfield]

Originally Posted by Tyrone Slothrop

You're just very, very wrong. Try to understand why President Trump spent so much of his speech last night throwing red meat to the base, why he tried to get people excited about a column of immigrants who were coming for the southern border before the 2018 mid-terms, why GWB's GOP tried to get initiatives about same-sex marriage on the ballot when he was running, and so on. It's because if you turn out more of your base, you need to convince fewer of the swing voters.



You want to get them excited, so they give money and organize and turn out. Just like Trump is doing with his base.



Seriously, are you just not reading the responses to you? Like three of us have said repeatedly that's not the point, and you just keep repeating this, like an alarm clock with a busted snooze button.

You are missing my point.

There is no base or swing voter of value to be turned out using an ad about impeachment. The states that matter are filled with Ds who aren't interested in impeachment, Epstein, Khashoggi, etc.

If you want to turn out your base there, you nail HC, jobs, wages, etc. Simple shit.

Trump is doing something different. He's playing to both his base (I think the pro-life thing is going to backfire on him) on culture shit, and to the swing voters who gifted him the presidency in the Rust Belt with economic messages.

The supposedly electable (Biden) Democrats' economic message is <tumbleweeds graphic here>. They're all about impeachment, and the evil of Trump. Yeah, that rallies the base. But not in the Rust Belt. Not where it counts. To rally the base there, you have to have a message about what you're going to do for the middle class better than Trump. I see none of that.

[Tyrone Slothrop]

Originally Posted by sebastian_dangerfield

You are missing my point.

There is no base or swing voter of value to be turned out using an ad about impeachment. The states that matter are filled with Ds who aren't interested in impeachment, Epstein, Khashoggi, etc.

If you want to turn out your base there, you nail HC, jobs, wages, etc. Simple shit.

Trump is doing something different. He's playing to both his base (I think the pro-life thing is going to backfire on him) on culture shit, and to the swing voters who gifted him the presidency in the Rust Belt with economic messages.

The supposedly electable (Biden) Democrats' economic message is <tumbleweeds graphic here>. They're all about impeachment, and the evil of Trump. Yeah, that rallies the base. But not in the Rust Belt. Not where it counts. To rally the base there, you have to have a message about what you're going to do for the middle class better than Trump. I see none of that.

Uh, OK. We'll agree to disagree about what the Democratic base likes.

[sebastian_dangerfield]

Originally Posted by Tyrone Slothrop

Uh, OK. We'll agree to disagree about what the Democratic base likes.

Fair enough. But it might be geographic. I think on the coasts and in many highly educated and affluent areas, the base very much does like that ad. So I'm not saying you're wrong. I'm saying YMMV, quite a lot, based on location.