Doesn’t Matter Who Wins the K Race; We’re All the Same

[Adder]

Originally Posted by Hank Chinaski

The over arching point being, our cities are pretty fucked.

Different cities are fucked in different ways. Some are struggling with transition to post-industrial economies and/or shrinking. Others are having trouble growing fast enough. Others (hi!) are pretty stable but also worried about falling into either trap.

[sebastian_dangerfield]

Originally Posted by Hank Chinaski

The Wire was fiction I suppose, but written by someone who knows the city’s problems. The over arching point being, our cities are pretty fucked. And the system is stacked against anyone trying to change it.

Where the gov is now don’t hold your breath.

On the other hand Detroit has had major development. I think a few local business people invested and started it, but downtown D today is probably busier than it was in the 50’s. Still there are huge parts that remain really fucked up.

Cities are a concentrated demonstration of the increasing delta between low skill labor needed and low skill labor available. The center attracts professionals and those who work in high end services. Ringing this are neighborhoods filled with excess labor supply.

The same thing is occurring in the suburbs. Low skill labor areas suffer under a vicious cycle. People lose jobs, then homes, then housing prices fall and there’s flight. Those who can run to tonier neighboring towns.

At least in cities, bargain hunters will flood into cheap areas and improve them. In suburbs, and particularly exburbs, once the flight occurs, the only people who come in are speculators looking for cheap rental properties. A community of suburban renters is fucked. No property tax base, so shitty schools. It’s the worst kind of transient community. Mid Atlantic is pock marked with these types of places.

[Greedy,Greedy,Greedy]

Originally Posted by ThurgreedMarshall

You're basing your analysis on someone saying "stuff like...?" You must be kidding.

Biden is leading Trump by 8 points in Ohio. Hillary lost Ohio by 8 points. Every other Democrat in the current field is tied with Trump in Ohio.

It doesn't seem stronger. It is stronger. And, I don't know how many times I have to say this, it doesn't matter how strong it actually is, because black people are going to the polls everywhere where they haven't been removed or blocked from voting to vote against the racist in office.

Dude, you keep approaching this conversation like I am someone who can put eggs in a basket.

I am a black man, with black and Asian people all over my family. I am voting against Trump. Period. I am completely focused on whoever can beat Trump by the widest margin. If Kamala wins the nomination and ekes out a victory, that's not much of a win. We need seats in the House and the Senate. And the best way to get them is to get white people--many of whom will not vote for a black person, or a woman, or a gay man, or an old Jew to pull the lever for the entire Democratic ticket wherever the fuck they are.

I'm with you there, brother.

TM

By the way, if your point is that the Dems need a candidate who really speaks to those white rural & working class voters, the calendar is going to reflect that bias, because those voters are all over Iowa and NH. So Biden is going to be tested in a field that is biased in favor of that group. We'll see how he does, if you are right, he should clean up. If he gets beaten in one or both of those will you be rethinking? If he gets absolutely clobbered in one?

I generally think you are right that we are going to see strong black voter turnout regardless of who is the candidate. I'm actually more worried about Hispanic voter turnout. I think Republican voter suppression tactics are really targeted there, and they know what they are doing.

[Did you just call me Coltrane?]

Originally Posted by Adder

Different cities are fucked in different ways. Some are struggling with transition to post-industrial economies and/or shrinking. Others are having trouble growing fast enough. Others (hi!) are pretty stable but also worried about falling into either trap.

Chicago currently has 42 new high-rises under construction...yet population is declining.

[Tyrone Slothrop]

Originally Posted by sebastian_dangerfield

Oh, the left is going there. In a few years, I guarantee people here will be arguing for a return to the fairness doctrine, and for legislation aimed at curbing fake news.

I'm actually sympathetic to the goal of the fairness doctrine, but I think it allows govt regulators to decide free speech issues, which belong before courts.

We should have a separate thread where you can argue with "the left," so that all of the people who find those posts fascinating can see them all in one place.

[Tyrone Slothrop]

Originally Posted by sebastian_dangerfield

The argument that we can never know if there was successful vote changing by Russians (effective and material hacking, mind you, as opposed to hacking in Illinois, where Hillary won) because Trump obstructed (despite Mueller having used the broadest possible powers to investigate Russians for hacking and indicting twelve of them for it without finding any link between them and Trump) is pretty dumb.

The argument that it's just a matter of time until we find the Russians changed votes (elapse of time + ??? = a finding Russians clanged votes) is a ticket to Crazytown.

If the Russians changed votes, Mueller'd have found it. That was just a matter of Mueller examining electronic data Trump could not preclude him from accessing. He didn't find it. He found attempts to do so which were ineffective.

If I were a Russian tasked with manipulating and undermining US elections, I would not prioritize hacking voting systems to change the votes cast, for a few different reasons.

At the same, for the last two years we keep learning about stuff that actually happened that was denied at the time and seems totally implausible. I still can't get over that Jarod Kushner asked the Russians about using a secure channel at their embassy. That's Crazytown.

[ThurgreedMarshall]

Originally Posted by Greedy,Greedy,Greedy

By the way, if your point is that the Dems need a candidate who really speaks to those white rural & working class voters, the calendar is going to reflect that bias, because those voters are all over Iowa and NH. So Biden is going to be tested in a field that is biased in favor of that group. We'll see how he does, if you are right, he should clean up. If he gets beaten in one or both of those will you be rethinking? If he gets absolutely clobbered in one?

NO. Because it's not about the fucking primaries. It's about the general and the people who aren't invested enough in either party to vote in the primaries who will vote for the old white guy who makes them feel safe in the general. If everyone else who voted against him in the primary doesn't fall in line for the general, then we're all gonna get what those assholes deserve.

Originally Posted by Greedy,Greedy,Greedy

I generally think you are right that we are going to see strong black voter turnout regardless of who is the candidate. I'm actually more worried about Hispanic voter turnout. I think Republican voter suppression tactics are really targeted there, and they know what they are doing.

I agree completely. What they have been able to do is absolutely terrifying.

TM

[Greedy,Greedy,Greedy]

Originally Posted by sebastian_dangerfield

At least in cities, bargain hunters will flood into cheap areas and improve them. In suburbs, and particularly exburbs, once the flight occurs, the only people who come in are speculators looking for cheap rental properties. A community of suburban renters is fucked. No property tax base, so shitty schools. It’s the worst kind of transient community. Mid Atlantic is pock marked with these types of places.

The notion that development = improvement remains at the core of urban problems.

We generally need ways of delivering quality low and moderate income housing, not ways of converting whatever (flawed though it may be) low and moderate income housing to luxury housing (or absentee condos for Chinese buyers).

And some areas with high vacancy rates have remained that way for decades - how long do we have to wait for the magical improvers to come in?

[Tyrone Slothrop]

Originally Posted by ThurgreedMarshall

You're basing your analysis on someone saying "stuff like...?" You must be kidding.

Biden is leading Trump by 8 points in Ohio. Hillary lost Ohio by 8 points. Every other Democrat in the current field is tied with Trump in Ohio.

It doesn't seem stronger. It is stronger. And, I don't know how many times I have to say this, it doesn't matter how strong it actually is, because black people are going to the polls everywhere where they haven't been removed or blocked from voting to vote against the racist in office.

Dude, you keep approaching this conversation like I am someone who can put eggs in a basket.

I am a black man, with black and Asian people all over my family. I am voting against Trump. Period. I am completely focused on whoever can beat Trump by the widest margin. If Kamala wins the nomination and ekes out a victory, that's not much of a win. We need seats in the House and the Senate. And the best way to get them is to get white people--many of whom will not vote for a black person, or a woman, or a gay man, or an old Jew to pull the lever for the entire Democratic ticket wherever the fuck they are.

I'm with you there, brother.

TM

On Biden, I don't think he can sustain the advantage he has right now in the polls. It's early. Most people aren't paying attention, and he benefits from his stature. But based on his past performance, he's not good at campaigning. It's one thing to get re-elected to the Senate in a small state like Delaware, and another to run for President.

I'd like to be wrong. If Biden can run a strong campaign and win the primary, that'd be excellent, and I will be 100% behind him. I am just worried that too many Democrats are thinking, let's pick a candidate that other people will like, and that that's a poor way to get a good candidate.

[Adder]

Originally Posted by Greedy,Greedy,Greedy

luxury housing (or absentee condos for Chinese buyers).

The popularity of the anti-factual belief that foreign investors hold lots of empty properties is a significant beef I have with much of the performative left, especially when it is used to object to building additional housing.

[Tyrone Slothrop]

Originally Posted by sebastian_dangerfield

Cities are a concentrated demonstration of the increasing delta between low skill labor needed and low skill labor available. The center attracts professionals and those who work in high end services. Ringing this are neighborhoods filled with excess labor supply.

The same thing is occurring in the suburbs. Low skill labor areas suffer under a vicious cycle. People lose jobs, then homes, then housing prices fall and there’s flight. Those who can run to tonier neighboring towns.

At least in cities, bargain hunters will flood into cheap areas and improve them. In suburbs, and particularly exburbs, once the flight occurs, the only people who come in are speculators looking for cheap rental properties. A community of suburban renters is fucked. No property tax base, so shitty schools. It’s the worst kind of transient community. Mid Atlantic is pock marked with these types of places.

Your posts about cities make no sense here in California.

[ThurgreedMarshall]

Originally Posted by Tyrone Slothrop

On Biden, I don't think he can sustain the advantage he has right now in the polls. It's early. Most people aren't paying attention, and he benefits from his stature. But based on his past performance, he's not good at campaigning. It's one thing to get re-elected to the Senate in a small state like Delaware, and another to run for President.

I'd like to be wrong. If Biden can run a strong campaign and win the primary, that'd be excellent, and I will be 100% behind him. I am just worried that too many Democrats are thinking, let's pick a candidate that other people will like, and that that's a poor way to get a good candidate.

Normally, I would agree. But not this election.

The Dems who need to be excited to vote in the general, should be excited enough to vote based on who Trump is and what he's doing. The people who need comforting and will vote for Biden because he's a milquetoast white man are the ones who will determine this election.

Biden needs to survive the primaries. If he does and Kamala, Bernie, Corey, et al don't completely shit all over him, he will crush Trump.

TM

[Greedy,Greedy,Greedy]

Originally Posted by Adder

The popularity of the anti-factual belief that foreign investors hold lots of empty properties is a significant beef I have with much of the performative left, especially when it is used to object to building additional housing.

I don't know the stats, but this is a reality in a small slice of the market - luxury high rises in Boston, SF, and NY. We've had a bunch of referrals from firms we work with in China, Taiwan and Australia to help them buy some of these, and one of my partners has developed a little guide (in English and Chinese) on buying such properties. I had one I passed on to someone who does that stuff where someone was buying a $30 million apartment in NY. Who does that?

It's almost comical in Boston because until recently we really didn't do luxury highrises. People with money in Boston live in Brownstones or single family houses, not highrises. But lately a bunch have been going up, and they fill almost entirely with people not from here (including a lot of relocated NYers - thanks GE!).

[Hank Chinaski]

Originally Posted by Tyrone Slothrop

Your posts about cities make no sense here in California.

This isn't really in reply to you.

The thread started with a reference to Baltimore, then I threw Detroit into the mix. Luxury high rises have nothing to do with solving the problem.

Baltimore is a very distressed city. But Detroit I know better. There is a "revitalized" thread down the main Avenue, and spreading from it. It is chock full of well paid young people and smart shops.

And if you get a half mile off it, you are in rodent infested very challenged areas. For a long while trash pick up was spotty, at best, in those areas. There are blocks with 20 homes, 1 or 2 occupied- they have to try to provide city services in a place that has home density that is almost rural. There are tons of hopeless uneducated people- for generations the high school drop out rate was high, it still is.

The NYT posts travel stories about visiting Detroit the revived city. My daughter lives in a neighborhood that includes the epicenter of the 1967 riots. You will not find an available rental property today. They are no longer beat homes to fix up.

The NYT will direct you to where my daughter lives. Visitors don't see the real challenge. It's great to be able to go to restaurants in the city that are wonderful, but fact is the city's people are not enjoying that rebirth- maybe some jobs- but life still is pretty much tough.

Foreign investment is the answer? Ain't no pracical answer at all.

[sebastian_dangerfield]

Originally Posted by Tyrone Slothrop

We should have a separate thread where you can argue with "the left," so that all of the people who find those posts fascinating can see them all in one place.

You won’t go there. Put a pin in this, however, and in 24 months, see how many here will applaud regulation of speech. “Finland did it, and look how great it’s been. No more fake news about who’s getting the reindeer drunk!”