Election 2010: Teabaggin' the Ds & Rs

[Greedy,Greedy,Greedy]

Originally Posted by sebastian_dangerfield

No, I'm not. I think a $750k cap would have been better. It would be largely symbolic, but it would send the right message. The current deal sends the worst possible message.

I generally agree with this, except that I really like the quick jab at the ss tax.

Though it makes me feel like I'm cheering for a great play by the Jets. Heh, heh, as if...

[Adder]

Originally Posted by sebastian_dangerfield

They're fools. Except for the whales who can diversify entirely to avoid domestic exposure, everybody will feel the loss in value of some asset impacted if our economy rolls over. Which it will.

Okay, to continue I need more on which dire scenario you are predicting at the moment. Or, to be more specific, I need you to lay out how you see this tax deal - which is definitely a budgetary mess - leads to "our economy roll[ing] over" if that's what you mean.

[sebastian_dangerfield]

Originally Posted by Adder

Okay, to continue I need more on which dire scenario you are predicting at the moment. Or, to be more specific, I need you to lay out how you see this tax deal - which is definitely a budgetary mess - leads to "our economy roll[ing] over" if that's what you mean.

That's not what I mean. There are other factors. The tax deal merely exacerbates concern about whether we can politically tackle our debts.

[sebastian_dangerfield]

Originally Posted by Adder

Okay, to continue I need more on which dire scenario you are predicting at the moment. Or, to be more specific, I need you to lay out how you see this tax deal - which is definitely a budgetary mess - leads to "our economy roll[ing] over" if that's what you mean.

You cannot sustain economic growth with states and cities on the verge of default, 20% U-6 unemployment and a deader than Heath Ledger housing market. The shit doesn't work. We're putting paper between us and a basement we're pretending we can avoid hitting.

This is a fragmentation, not a rebound. Inevitably, however, as it gets worse for businesses with domestic exposure, and local and state governments, the drag will pull on the coat tails of the sectors with less domestic exposure which are making money.

ETA: Check out how many rebates you see in stores right now. Look at how retailers extended Black Friday. You might say these are normal responses to an adverse spending climate. I see them as desperate attempts to gin up cash flow for a quarter their lenders will be assessing with extreme scrutiny. (What's a rebate but a way to book early a lot more than you'll really earn over the long term?) And I don't see any new dollars flowing into consumption. I see dollars people aren't spending on mortgages and homeowner's insurance anymore. I also see a lot of people of means bargain hunting because the deals are great. And those are one time purchases they won't make again for a long time. If you have money, now's a great time to steal quality stuff at low prices. Problem with that is, if you buy good shoes, or a good car, you don't need to buy new shoes, or a new vehicle, for another several years. We need the middle class guy who can't afford great stuff buying middling quality shit he needs to replace every year, and that's not happening.

[Cletus Miller]

Originally Posted by sebastian_dangerfield

a deader than Heath Ledger housing market.

Only way out of that is inflation and dragging nominal (*not* real) wage growth along for the ride. Also a huge help for state/local bond obligations, tho it doesn't help out the pension issue. And, we will *eventually* get inflation out of all of these actions, even if its just by forcing everyone to disbelieve in the dollar.

[Cletus Miller]

Originally Posted by sebastian_dangerfield

No, I'm not. I think a $750k cap would have been better. It would be largely symbolic, but it would send the right message. The current deal sends the worst possible message.

So people who make $750k are above middle class. Got it.

[sebastian_dangerfield]

Originally Posted by Cletus Miller

So people who make $750k are above middle class. Got it.

I'm picking a number I think would work. $500k would be too low for some people living in SF/NYC/DC. There'd be brushback.

[Adder]

Originally Posted by sebastian_dangerfield

a deader than Heath Ledger housing market.

As a housing market anecdote, I bought my Minneapolis condo for 10% than the seller paid for it a year earlier, and I have now agreed to sell my DC condo for just under 10% less than I paid for it at the beginning of 2005.

The end result will be significantly less leverage for me.

[Cletus Miller]

Originally Posted by sebastian_dangerfield

I'm picking a number I think would work. $500k would be too low for some people living in SF/NYC/DC. There'd be brushback.

Dude, $250k was perfectly reasonable if ANYONE in Congress actually gave a fuck about the deficit. They all only care about being re-elected.

[Adder]

Originally Posted by sebastian_dangerfield

I'm picking a number I think would work.

What criteria are you looking at to decide what "works?"

$500k would be too low for some people living in SF/NYC/DC.

Amazing.

Also, I do not think DC is expensive as you think.

[Cletus Miller]

Originally Posted by Adder

As a housing market anecdote, I bought my Minneapolis condo for 10% than the seller paid for it a year earlier, and I have now agreed to sell my DC condo for just under 10% less than I paid for it at the beginning of 2005.

The end result will be significantly less leverage for me.

If you'd paid 20% more for your new condo, you'd still have much less leverage, no?

[Greedy,Greedy,Greedy]

Originally Posted by Cletus Miller

Dude, $250k was perfectly reasonable if ANYONE in Congress actually gave a fuck about the deficit. They all only care about being re-elected.

It was but compromise should have meant moving it north.

[Adder]

Originally Posted by Cletus Miller

If you'd paid 20% more for your new condo, you'd still have much less leverage, no?

You are suggesting that I should have overpaid out of a sense of the common good?

But yeah. I would also have less cash. And I like cash.

[Cletus Miller]

Originally Posted by Adder

Also, I do not think DC is expensive as you think.

If one considers only family-sized homes in areas acceptable to the upper middle class, it's closer than you realize. But it's also true of most of the "cheaper" metros as well.

[Cletus Miller]

Originally Posted by Adder

You are suggesting that I should have overpaid out of a sense of the common good?

But yeah. I would also have less cash. And I like cash.

Of course not, but your leverage adjustment would have happened with the move, regardless of the market direction.

Also, you bought a bigger, newer place, didn't you?