Towards A Virtual Williamsburg!

[Mmmm, Burger (C.J.)]

Originally Posted by Atticus Grinch

Thought experiment:

In 2012, the median age at first marriage in the U.S. was 28.6 for men and 26.6 for women — at or near all-time highs for both, and a consistent upward trend. Assume a negligible number of same-sex marriages in the 2012 statistics.

Let "L" be the median age of all first marriages of women marrying women going forward.

Let "G" be the median age of all first marriages of men marrying men going forward.

Give your predictions for L and G, both as a figure and as an expected trend (if any).

I'll give my answers if two or more people respond. For sake of reference, all-time low for women was 20.1 (1956) and for men was 22.5 (1956 and 1959).

Trend will be down because there is lots of pent up demand marriage for L and G. All those couples waiting 30 years won't have to wait that long in the future.

[Atticus Grinch]

Me, in response to all my non-lawyer friends' Facebook musings about the purported flaws in SCOTUS rulings:

http://youtu.be/Q6glR0bSb_4

[Atticus Grinch]

Originally Posted by Mmmm, Burger (C.J.)

Trend will be down because there is lots of pent up demand marriage for L and G. All those couples waiting 30 years won't have to wait that long in the future.

You're expecting a decline in both M and F. But what will L and G be? Will they be the same as the heterosexual numbers? The same as each other? You're ducking the issue, you issue-ducker.

[Hank Chinaski]

Originally Posted by Atticus Grinch

"Great minds discuss ideas; average minds discuss events; small minds discuss people."
— Eleanor Roosevelt

"Let's fuck some whores! Eleanor is driving me nuts."
FDR

[Hank Chinaski]

Originally Posted by Atticus Grinch

You're expecting a decline in both M and F. But what will L and G be? Will they be the same as the heterosexual numbers? The same as each other? You're ducking the issue, you issue-ducker.

What if the religious right is correct about what this will inevitably lead to? I say the average age will have to drop to the low teens. Dogs and cats will be the next big marriage pool and they only live to 10 or 11 or so. Unless we count pet spouses in dog years?

[LessinSF]

Originally Posted by Greedy,Greedy,Greedy

Less: information for your travels.

Awesome. More reasonableness like that and Bill can get his law license back.

[ThurgreedMarshall]

http://www.lawtalkers.com/forums/sho...postcount=1803

http://www.lawtalkers.com/forums/sho...postcount=1804

http://www.lawtalkers.com/forums/sho...postcount=1805

http://www.lawtalkers.com/forums/sho...postcount=1806

TM

[Sidd Finch]

Originally Posted by Atticus Grinch

Thought experiment:

In 2012, the median age at first marriage in the U.S. was 28.6 for men and 26.6 for women — at or near all-time highs for both, and a consistent upward trend. Assume a negligible number of same-sex marriages in the 2012 statistics.

Let "L" be the median age of all first marriages of women marrying women going forward.

Let "G" be the median age of all first marriages of men marrying men going forward.

Give your predictions for L and G, both as a figure and as an expected trend (if any).

I'll give my answers if two or more people respond. For sake of reference, all-time low for women was 20.1 (1956) and for men was 22.5 (1956 and 1959).

For awhile, L and G are going to be considerably higher than the medians for straight men and women, as a number of people who were waiting to marry now find that it is legal, more recognized, etc. --- certainly we saw this when SF starting issuing marriage licenses to same-sex couples. (IIRC, the first such wedding was SF lesbian icons Lyon and Martin, who where probably in their 70s.)

[Sidd Finch]

Originally Posted by Greedy,Greedy,Greedy

Here's the thing. Good sex is an event full of ideas involving people. All three at once.

Sometimes just one person. I've been traveling a lot this year.

[Sidd Finch]

Originally Posted by ThurgreedMarshall

http://www.lawtalkers.com/forums/sho...postcount=1803

http://www.lawtalkers.com/forums/sho...postcount=1804

http://www.lawtalkers.com/forums/sho...postcount=1805

http://www.lawtalkers.com/forums/sho...postcount=1806

TM

Perhaps you shouldn't tell us which pictures you come across.

[taxwonk]

Originally Posted by Sidd Finch

Sometimes just one person. I've been traveling a lot this year.

He said good sex.

[Greedy,Greedy,Greedy]

Originally Posted by Greedy,Greedy,Greedy

Less: information for your travels.

Sidd, I set up this link for Less, but you might find it helpful, too.

[Adder]

Originally Posted by Atticus Grinch

You're expecting a decline in both M and F. But what will L and G be? Will they be the same as the heterosexual numbers? The same as each other? You're ducking the issue, you issue-ducker.

L and G will start out much higher (obviously) and then trend down to be similar to M and F, would be my guess.

Maybe a bit younger for L, but perhaps that's me stereotyping.

[Sidd Finch]

Originally Posted by Adder

L and G will start out much higher (obviously) and then trend down to be similar to M and F, would be my guess.

Maybe a bit younger for L, but perhaps that's me stereotyping.

I think that, even after the "pent-up demand" thing fades and the situation normalizes, L and G will still be a bit higher than M and F. Generally, I think it still takes some time before people realize or acknowledge or accept that they are gay, and then they have to adjust to that before they end up wanting to marry.

Also, depending on what other states do, we may see more of a trend of people moving to, or at least visiting, civilized states like California where they can get married, which I expect will keep the average age up (e.g., gay couple in Austin spends a few years thinking about moving, then pulls the trigger and does so).

[Atticus Grinch]

Originally Posted by Adder

Maybe a bit younger for L, but perhaps that's me stereotyping.

This is the question I'm trying to get at and that everybody but you ducked — will L look like F? Will G look like M?

I suspect that the age of first marriage will prove to be positively correlated with the number of men in a two-person commitment, and negatively correlated with the number of women. I'm guessing L may be as much as 2 years lower than F, and G will be as many as 6 years higher than M because there is no fertility clock.

I also wonder if the delta of age between marriage partners will be greater in FF and MM marriages, or smaller. I don't have a prediction on that, but it will be interesting to see whether same-sex marriages prove to be sociologically different from MF marriages.