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Originally Posted by Did you just call me Coltrane?
I hope you're right. But I thought the same thing in 2016.
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There are a few big unknowns in the mix.
1. The number of new Trump voters. (Vote for him, but don;t care enough to vote in mid-terms.)
2. The number of 2016 Trump voters lost because his promises dod not pan out.
We don't know how a reconciliation of 1 and 2 nets.
3. How much the mid-terms were a referendum.
4. How much the mid-terms were the usual reflexive vote against the last election's winner mid-terms often are.
I don't think this can be netted. It's an eternal unknown.
5. Recession.
Get a solid one, and that's end of Trump. If we somehow don't get one, he has economy on which to run.
6. Florida ex-felon vote.
7. Florida efforts to suppress ex-felon vote (rollback legislation and ground efforts underway).
I think if all those new voters are allowed to vote, it nets against Trump and costs him the election.
I don't see how Trump wins the Blue Wall states again if Biden is in the race. But even if Biden is not in the race, and a progressive who'd lose to Trump in MI/WI/PA enters, Florida is still a very difficult win for Trump with all those new votes. (Trump's probably just silly enough to think he's got the Jewish vote, the Castro-haters, and some felons in the can as a result of his support for Israel, rollback of normalization of relations with Cuba, and justice reform support. He's wrong, and even if he were right, that's a rounding error in comparison to the ex-felon votes against him.)
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