Election 2010: Teabaggin' the Ds & Rs

[sgtclub]

Originally Posted by sebastian_dangerfield

WTF? Is Club really arguing tea partiers are disaffected Dems? Or is that your paraphrasing?

Because that's asinine. No offence to either of you, but the obvious and irrefutable is, well... obvious and irrefutable. And the conclusion tea partiers are near exclusively Republican and Independent is both.

I'm arguing that the Tea Party movement is not just a re-branded wing of the GOP. I think it is comprised of a majority of Indies. Ty thinks it is mostly comprised of GOP'rs.

[sebastian_dangerfield]

Originally Posted by sgtclub

I'm arguing that the Tea Party movement is not just a re-branded wing of the GOP. I think it is comprised of a majority of Indies. Ty thinks it is mostly comprised of GOP'rs.

I think he's right, but not not by as much as he thinks he is. I'd say it's around 70% GOP, 25% Independent, 5% conservative Democrats who've become disillusioned.

I overstated my point earlier when I suggested there are no Dems in the tea parties. I plead Goldwater.

[Cletus Miller]

Originally Posted by sebastian_dangerfield

I think he's right, but not not by as much as he thinks he is. I'd say it's around 70% GOP, 25% Independent, 5% conservative Democrats who've become disillusioned.

I overstated my point earlier when I suggested there are no Dems in the tea parties. I plead Goldwater.

Conservative Dems who had been voting R in national elections, sure. I think Ty would call them Dinos or racists or something.

[Tyrone Slothrop]

Originally Posted by Cletus Miller

Conservative Dems who had been voting R in national elections, sure. I think Ty would call them Dinos or racists or something.

However they identify, they have been consistent votes for Republicans in recent elections, so it's just a new name for a bloc of voters who don't vote for Democrats. The rise of the Tea Parties is obviously significant for a number of reasons, including that these voters are highly motivated this year and that they are seizing control over the Republican Party in essential respects, but the phenomenom does not reflect that people who have recently voted for Democrats are changing their minds.

[sgtclub]

Originally Posted by Tyrone Slothrop

However they identify, they have been consistent votes for Republicans in recent elections, so it's just a new name for a bloc of voters who don't vote for Democrats. The rise of the Tea Parties is obviously significant for a number of reasons, including that these voters are highly motivated this year and that they are seizing control over the Republican Party in essential respects, but the phenomenom does not reflect that people who have recently voted for Democrats are changing their minds.

The difference between 2008 and 2010 (other than turnout) is that the Indies are breaking hugely towards the Rs, when in 2008 it was the reverse. That is, in large part, why I'm professing what I am. Maybe I'm seeing more overlap than is the case between the Indy break and the Tea Party.

[Tyrone Slothrop]

Originally Posted by sgtclub

The difference between 2008 and 2010 (other than turnout) is that the Indies are breaking hugely towards the Rs, when in 2008 it was the reverse. That is, in large part, why I'm professing what I am. Maybe I'm seeing more overlap than is the case between the Indy break and the Tea Party.

You are right about independents, but (a) there are independents who are not Tea Partiers who are voting GOP because* the economy sucks, and (b) it's not a fixed pool of voters -- a different pool of independents will turn out this time than last.


* If you ask political economists, they will tell you that the economy explains why people are saying what they're saying about how they'll vote next week. Notwithstanding, political reporters and voters are highly committed to the notion that their decisions are much more complicated and dependent on things like messaging and personality and tactics and a lot of other crap that the political scientists say washes out. But the political scientists' version doesn't generate copy to sell newspaper or TV advertising.

[Adder]

Originally Posted by sgtclub

I'm arguing that the Tea Party movement is not just a re-branded wing of the GOP. I think it is comprised of a majority of Indies. Ty thinks it is mostly comprised of GOP'rs.

Actually, Ty seems to think it is mostly comprised of people who call themselves Indys but always vote R.

Should we send you a mirror?